TFT Issue 45!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
News
It seems that Anzhi Makhachkala are flexing their financial muscle an awful lot at the moment with their latest capture being Anderlecht’s star Moroccan playmaker Boussoufa. They’ve got a good bunch of players now and if they gel properly then a European place is not out of the question, in my view, so be careful with them.
Double chance
1X:
Atletico Lanus
Sturm Graz
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Levski Sofia
Osijek
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Heracles Almelo
Nacional Asuncion
Korona Kielce
Sporting Cristal
Juan Aurich
Flota Swinoujscie
Partizan Belgrade
Senica
Spartak Trnava
Real Madrid
Vaduz
Lausanne Sports
Trabzonspor
Featured game
Viktoria Plzen vs Sparta Prague – away win with draw no bet at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Gambrinus Liga encounter between Viktoria Plzen and Sparta Prague. The hosts have been flying high this season and currently occupy top spot in the division whereas visitors Sparta Prague know more about that top spot than any other side in the Czech Republic and intend to replace Viktoria Plzen there in the near future so we should see an interesting game here.
Statistically speaking, Viktoria Plzen have a very good chance of winning this game. However, I’d tend to disagree with that as statistics don’t often tell the full story. To Viktoria Plzen’s credit, they are currently unbeaten at home in the Gambrinus Liga this season with seven wins from nine games, averaging scoring three goals per home game and thus they’re a side not to fuck around with, basically. However, their success stemmed from a solid defence and now that Navratil and Rada have gone and totally upset their defensive balance, this Viktoria Plzen side isn’t as recognisable or as feared anymore. You also have to take into consideration the pressure that Viktoria Plzen are now under as league leaders and how much harder sides work against them as a result. We’ve seen all kinds of combinations of the above in Plzen’s latest games but the most important fact to make note of is that they’ve shipped three goals in their past two games, both of which were against relegation-threatened sides. You could argue that Plzen were unlucky to draw at Slovacko due to the dubious equaliser that Slovacko obtained but even so, Plzen’s defence is not the same at all and although I’m sure Neuwirth will prove his worth in time, it cannot be ignore that Plzen are vulnerable defensively currently.
To make matters worse for the hosts, they miss two very important attacking midfielders for this game with Jiracek suspended and Petrzela injured, both of which contribute heavily to Plzen’s attack. Plzen need as many players to support Jan Rezek as they can, especially against a strong Sparta Prague side, so I think they’ll struggle today as they’re lacking that support en mass. Daniel Kolar has a huge part to play in this game if Plzen are to obtain anything from the game, as is playmaker Pavel Horvarth, both of which were actually at Sparta Prague in the last few years. For a side that is built upon unity, however, there have been too many changes at Plzen over the transfer window and it’s shown against two lesser opponents and thus I expect it too today, even with the impressive acquisition of attacker Fillo lately.
Visitors Sparta Prague are beginning to assume their atypical powerful position in the Gambrinus Liga with efficient displays resulting in three points each game. Consider the game against Marila Pribram last match, for instance – it took Sparta time but their experience and patience paid off as they scored a winner near the end. They won 0-2 at a decent Banik Ostrava side prior to that game so momentum is favouring the Czech giants here as they look to go from strength to strength. The acquisitions of Pekhart and Keric in attack were good moves, in my view – two experienced Gambrinus Liga strikers with proven track records of scoring goals in the division – although the departed Wilfried is still sorely missed. Kweuke provides a similar service to his ex-Ivorian compatriot but not with the same level of ability, hence Sparta Prague not scoring as many goals as they should. However, manager Chovanec was quite astute over the transfer window as he realised that Sparta were conceding goals too easily and that even an angry Tomas Repka cannot last forever so he promptly signed Zapotcny, who should prove to be an excellent signing for Sparta.
Despite what I think is fair to refer as not one of Sparta’s better campaigns to date, their quality and experienced has guided them into second place in the table with eight wins from ten away games, which is a remarkable record in this division. They’ve got a good manager, the best defence in the Czech Republic, and are now starting to win games in a worryingly efficient manner. Sound like the old Sparta Prague to you? It sure does to me!
I don’t think for one second that Plzen will lie down and make this easy for Sparta, not with so many ex-Sparta players/staff associated with Plzen currently. However, Sparta are simply a better side and they’ve got far more experience in this position than their hosts. Hell, Plzen lost the core of their team in January and miss two more important players today – that’s four players out of their usual eleven missing from this game and that is going to hurt them. Sparta’s defence have played together for years and as long as they take their chances here then I really think Sparta will win this one. For me, there’s value in the away win with draw no bet cover at evens.
Team news – Viktoria Plzen miss Petrzela and Jiracek.
Verdict: Sparta Prague to win with draw no bet at evens.
Additional games
Szolnoki MAV vs Kecksmeti TE – away win at 23/20.
Kecksmeti TE have had their problems away from home so far this season, it’s true. They’ve lost seven times out of nine in the Soproni Liga away from home and have shipped an average of nearly three goals per away game along the way. However, their defensive record is the sole reasoning behind this poor record as their offensive power is very good indeed. Hell, I’d even say it’s one of the best in Hungary at the moment, as Debreceni VSC found out for two consecutive games in a row lately with Kecskemeti TE scoring three times in each game. Only league leaders Fehervar have actually scored more goals than Kecskemeti TE have in the Soproni Liga this season and with momentum favouring the visitors here, it’s hard to overlook them for this game. Normally you can credit the bottom of each division with at least one good point as it’s usually misfortune that places them at the bottom of the pile in the first place but not today. No, I’m afraid that Szolnoki MAV genuinely are just a terrible team. They don’t play good football, they bear little offensive power, and are capable of conceding against anyone at any time. They’ve shipped five goals in their first two games back from the winter break and if they intend on playing the same open game today then I think we’ll see a cricket score for Kecskemeti because they’re far too good offensively to do that against. Don’t get me wrong here – the visitors can concede goals easily, and probably will here – but they’re still a far better side in front of goal and really should outscore the relegation-bound Szolnoki MAV today, hence my call for the away win.
Verdict: Kecskemeti TE to win at 23/20.
Anzhi Makhachkala vs FK Krasnodar – home win at evens.
Although I’d be more tempted to sit back and see how they perform against some of Russia’s elite clubs, I’m more than happy to wade into backing moneybags Anzhi here as they’re facing the worst club in the division, in my view.
Anzhi have been buying all kinds of players over the winter break due to their strong financial backing and now boast a whole host of talented players i.e. Roberto Carlos, Diego Tardelli, Joao Carlos, Jucilei, Prudnikov, and most recently, playmaker Boussoufa from Anderlecht. This side is now brimming with potential, creativity, and finesse, which makes Anzhi a surprise package this season. As we all know, it can take time to gel, but if Anzhi play as well in this game as they did a few days ago against Zenit St.Petersburg in a 2-3 loss in the Russian Cup then they’ll have no problems winning this one today.
Krasnodar are new to the division and will fight for everything here so Anzhi won’t have it all their own way. Krasnodar have some experienced players in their team, even at this level, so don’t expect a whitewash in this game. However, Krasnodar do lack offensive power and remind me an awful lot of Alaniya Vladikavkaz last season – plenty of effort but not a lot of ability.
For me, even a half-baked display from Anzhi will see them win this game due to the personnel that they now possess so the home win at evens appeals to me here.
Verdict: Anzhi Makhachkala to win at evens.
Jagodina vs Red Star Belgrade – home win with +1.5 goal head start at evens.
This should be one hell of an interesting game! Jagodina are notoriously hard to beat at home in the Super Liga but that only applies to the average sides in the division, as Partizan and Red Star Belgrade basically form their own mini-league at the top of the table every season due to their vast superiority.
However, this game should be a lot closer today. Jagodina have looked as resilient as ever at home this season as the fact that they’d have won all of their home games so far in this campaign hd they been given a +1.5 goal head start indicates.
Why should it be closer though? Well, quite simply put, it’s the Belgrade derby next week and both Red Star and Partizan are conserving their respective energies for that game. Returning defenders Tosic and Vilotic are likely to feature for Red Star to obtain match fitness but Prosinecki has elected to rest Ninkov, Borha, and Stamenkovic for this game, as well as missing Adi, Isah, Reljic, and Koroman for varying reasons so this is far from a strong Red Star team, especially at the back.
I don’t think Jagodina are brave enough to attack Red Star and go for the jugular here but I do think they’d play for the draw and they’re good enough to keep the scoreline down. I’d find it hard to enter the 1×2 market here but giving Jagodina a +1.5 goal head start in this game looks a gift to me with the above in mind, especially knowing how crazy the Belgrade fans are if their team doesn’t win the Belgrade derby!
Team news – Red Star Belgrade miss Adi, Isah, Reljic, and Koroman.
Verdict: Jagodina to win with a +1.5 goal head start at evens.
Ruch Radzionkow vs Gorzow Wielkopoloski – lay Ruch Radzionkow at evens.
Ruch have a new manager Skowronek, who is only twenty-eight years old. He was the assistant manager for departed boss Gorak, who left the club due to financial issues. Given that Gorak made this Ruch side what it is, odds of 4/6 on them winning this game look outlandish at best and thus I’m tempted to go against them today, especially as Ruch’s strength is keeping other sides out rather than scoring a lot of goals.
The other side of the coin is that Gorzow Wielkopolski are in such a perilous financial state that their own chairman had to fork out a lot of money in order for the side to even get to Radzionkow. The players are said to have reinforeced their desire to stay at the club but in my eyes, if a chairman makes such a generous gesture (he’s paid it out of his own money, incidentally!), then the players really should work a lot harder than normal in gratitude. If they don’t play well here then I doubt he’d do it again, thus leaving Gorzow in financial ruin and lessening the chance of the Gorzow players for being spotted and picked up by other clubs.
Call it superstition or an inkling; whatever you wish. I simply think that Ruch are way too short for this game considering that they’re not a goalscoring side and considering that Gorzow should be working very hard to win this game to repay their chairman.
Team news – Ruch Radzionkow have doubts over Niewulis.
Verdict: Lay Ruch Radzionkow at evens.
Gornik Polkowice vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala – home win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Although Gornik aren’t as good as Podbeskidzie, I do rate their chances quite a lot here. They don’t score many goals but they’re a strong unit and have only lost twice at home in Liga 1 this season so they need to be taken seriously here. The visitors have earned a reputation by scoring goals for fun and it’ll be a big surprise to me if they’re not promoted this season. However, their attention is elsewhere currently following a heroic victory at Reymonta against Wisla Krakow in the Puchar Polski as the return leg of that tie is in just a few days time. Podbeskidzie can afford to not win this game by resting players here and there and I think they’d be crazy not to as claiming the scalp of Wisla would be a massive feat for the Liga 1 outfit. Therefore, I think they’ll rest players in this game and I think that Gornik have a better chance of beating a potentially under-strength Podbeskidzie side today with draw no bet cover than the bookies do so my call is the home win with draw no bet cover as the hosts are generally resilient enough to avoid losing games like this, especially against an under-strength side.
Team news – Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala have doubts over Broniewicz.
Verdict: Gornik Polkowice to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Flota Swinoujscie vs Sandecja Nowy Sacz – home win at 11/10.
These two sides are are approximately 600 miles apart so it’s easy to understand why the home team keeps winning each head-to-head encounter! Flota has long been a tough away game for Liga 1 sides, however, for reasons ranging from the state of the pitch to the distance travelled to get there and this season has proven to be little different. Flota are unbeaten at home in nine games, winning six times and drawing three times along the way whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per game. They enter this game on the back of a win against Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski and thus have momentum to try and make it seven wins from ten home games. To be honest, they look good to do so, too. Sandecja Nowy Sacz don’t have a bad away record but what they really struggle with is goalscoring, something that they’ve managed to do just eight times in nine Liga 1 away games so far this season. Indeed, their home record isn’t much better, as far as goalscoring goes, so Sandecja aren’t the most difficult of sides to stop scoring. That should prove to be even less of a problem today as the visitors miss two important midfielders for this game – Kukol and Cebula. The likelihood is that Staniszewski and Szeliga will replace the missing Cebula and Kukol respectively but they’re not adequate replacements at this level, which exposes another weakness of the visitors – squad depth.
With the visitors looking increasingly unlikely to score and the hosts always playing well at home, odds of 11/10 look decent to me to take the home win at today, especially as a single goal should do it and the only side to leave Flota without conceding a goal this season is high-flying Piast Gliwice…
Team news – Sandecja Nowy Sacz miss Cebula and Kukol.
Verdict: Flota Swinoujscie to win at 11/10.
The bin
Szombathelyi Haladas vs Lombard Papa – home win at evens.
I was keen to take this one as Haladas have done quite well over the window and I don’t think that they’ll go down either. Lombard Papa aren’t great on the road and the three points look very attainable for Haladas here. However, an absent Halmosi means a lack of creativity and experience that Haladas are rapidly beginning to depend upon so it’s a “no bet” for me today.