TFT Issue 450!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Gandzasar vs EB/Streymur – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game in Armenia between Gandzasar and EB/Streymur.
Gandzasar have it all to do here following a 3-1 humping in the Faroe Islands last week. It was well-earned, too, with the Armenian defence looking like they’d never seen each other before. They played a ridiculously high defensive line and every time EB/Streymur attacked in the first-half, they looked like they’d score. Gandzasar’s left-back might as well have not existed for all the use he was and EB/Streymur could have and should have bagged five goals in the first-half alone. It was all too easy for the Faroese side, who had little to do at the other end. Gandzasar fought back in the second-half, though – they looked much stronger and much more confident in attack. They frequently caused EB/Streymur problem with their pace but their finishing was lacking. A clinical finish from a corner gave the Armenians hope of overturning the deficit, though, and it’ll be interesting to see if they can. Gandzasar clearly only know how to attack, which is what they have to do today, and their opponents don’t travel well so I certainly wouldn’t rule out the possibility of them progressing.
That said, I wouldn’t put it past EB/Streymur to upset them here. Tactically, EB/Streymur were spot on in the first leg and their counter-attacks were lethal. I expect more of the same in this game but foreign soil is rarely kind to Faroese sides. EB/Streymur adapt better than most Faroese sides, admittedly, but they’ve travelled a good what – 3500 miles? 4000 miles? That’s a long, long way to go and you saw how tired B36 Torshavn became in extra time against Linfield the other night. Faroese football is developing but their players still tire easier than most. This is not an easy place to play football; just ask any club that’s travelled to face Pyunik over the years! Gandzasar are dangerous enough in attack to cause problems here but they’re bad enough to concede so I think EB/Streymur will play the counter-attacking game rather than the containing game here.
All in all, I have to expect a lot of goals here. Gandzasar’s finishing is my only real concern but they must score at least two goals here and I doubt they’ll end the game without conceding so taking over 2.5 goals at 5/6 looks a bit of a steal to me today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Additional games
Zhetysu vs Lech Poznan – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
I like this one a lot more than I should, I suppose. Zhetsyu are a bit of an unknown factor for me as I know little about them. Needless to say that the majority of my confidence stems from Lech Poznan’s input in this game rather than Zhetsyu’s but I still like it and I’ll explain why.
First of all, Lech Poznan won the first leg 2-0, which leaves them sat very comfortably for this game. They don’t need to attack and I don’t think that they will. Secondly, they weren’t particularly good in Poland last week; more efficient than anything, to be honest. It’s no surprise, though – almost all of their creative/flair/influential players have left. Gone! Rudnevs used to lead from the front but he’s a Hamburger SV player now. Arguably the most gifted playmaker in Poland – Belarusian maestro Krivets – is in China and won’t be playing here. Stilic has gone, Peszko left in January, Injac has left, Wilk is supposedly going – hasn’t even been included in the European squad – so you have to look at their squad and question exactly whhere their goals will come from, realistically speaking. Their forwards are big but predictable. Their midfield is dour and lacking in creativity. Their defence is decent enough to keep a clean sheet here and thus I feel that we’re in for a low-scoring game here. Finally, Lech have travelled around 3000-3500 miles for this game, according to reports. It’s not a distance you’d want to travel and then run around for ninety minutes unnecessarily, is it?
In my view, Lech have travelled to Kazakhstan to “do a job”. I think they’re short to win this game as I see this as more of a 1x game. However, the value for me has to be in under 2.5 goals as the hosts didn’t do enough to Lech’s defence in the first leg despite a decent display and Lech don’t have anyone left to score goals or create chances on a regular basis, hence my selection.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Kalmar FF vs Cliftonville – under 3 goals at 9/10.
In the first leg of this tie, Clifonville outplayed Kalmar and deservedly won 1-0. People were surprised to see the Northern Irish side outplay their supposedly superior rivals. I wasn’t one, though, to be honest. Kalmar are notorious for having a lack of spirit when things aren’t going their way. They become lazy and disinterested very easily unless they’re playing against a big side, which Cliftonville aren’t. Kalmar aren’t a particularly good side, either, not even by Swedish standards. A lot of players that made this side very good have left the club and all that remains are some half-decent players, a good Mendes, and a lot of good supporters. Kalmar are hard to play against in this arena but then again, they’ve not encountered a side here before that simply comes to defend. Even Allsvenskan sides lack the organisation and resilience of the Northern Irish sides and I think we’ll see another example of that here. Cliftonville will come to defend and why not? They’re more than good enough to get a result here, be it 0-0, 1-1, or even a very cheeky 0-1 win. Kalmar simply aren’t a very good side nowadays and it’ll take an outstanding display from them today for this bet to lose, in my view – under 3 goals all day long for my money!
Verdict: Under 3 goals at 9/10.
Stabaek vs JJK Jyvaskyla – over 3 goals at 11/10.
The first leg in Finland ended 2-0 in favour of JJK. The result was merited but the scoreline should have been bigger from both sides. JJK found it all too easy to deal with Stabaek’s weak defence with Wusu causing problems time and time again. Only wayward finishing prevented them from scoring more goals than they actually did. However, the same can be said of Norwegian outfit Stabaek. They didn’t have as much of the game as I thought they would but they still created chances that they could have and should have scored. Still, a spirited display against Stromsgodset lately should leave them in decent spirits and I think they’ll take their chances whilst playing at home. JJK’s defence really is awful and if Stabaek don’t score goals galore here then it’s their own fault. However, JJK’s counter-attacks should be way too much for Stabaek to handle; they were in the first leg. For me, this game really should have plenty of goals so taking over 3 goals looks very interesting indeed at 11/10.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 11/10.
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Cefn Druids – away win with +2.5 handicap at 4/5.
You know, the bookies have to be right the majority of the time as that’s how they make money; make no mistake about it. However, I have to admit at having actually started laughing upon seeing MyPa at 1/10. There is not a side in the world that MyPa should be 1/10 against; it’s that simple. I can’t tell you much about Cefn Druids – I last saw them playing in the Welsh Premier League a season or two ago and they’ve been relegated since then. I know the mentality of Welsh sides in Europe, though, and it’s to work hard and be organised, which is precisely how the first leg in Wales ended 0-0.
I can tell you about MyPa, though. Finnish sides tend to have the edge over Welsh sides because it’s simply a better standard of league. However, in that generalisation, we’re comparing the better sides of the leagues, thus the likes of HJK vs Bangor or Inter Turku vs TNS. MyPa are not even a top six side in the Veikkausliiga, for my money! They’re playing good football this season, to their credit, and I certainly didn’t expect to see that from them. However, quality-wise, there is very little in this, especially based on the first leg. MyPa are predominantly packed with Ykkonen players! I don’t know how they’re playing so well in Finland but I expect them to struggle against European opposition because sides from the UK are some of the best organised in Europe whilst Veikkausliiga sides just…aren’t!
This is MyPa’s fourth game in ten days. They absolutely do not have the squad to deal with that number of games! They’ve not been rotating players, for reasons unbeknown to me. They’re missing experienced hitman Sihvola for this game and Anttilainen joins him on the sidelines. Essential defender Aho is also missing for this game and although MyPa’s African contingent return for this game, it’s hard to see where this supposed quality difference actually is. I think Nigerian striker Williams was a very good addition and he could make the difference here but seriously – I assure you that MyPa are not worth 1/10 in this game, whether they win it 15-0 or not! I find plenty of value in giving Cefn Druids a +2.5 handicap at 5/6 because their hosts aren’t particularly good and the visitors can frustrate them here. One more thing – MyPa aren’t even at home today; they’re playing at FC Lahti’s stadium, Lahden Stadion.
Verdict: Cefn Druids to win with +2.5 handicap at 5/6.
Eschen/Mauren vs FH Hafnarfjordur – home win with +1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Yeah – I don’t get these odds. Look, FH are a top-class side in Iceland and are experienced in Europe. They won the first leg 2-1 in what was a very difficult game for them, though. Eschen/Mauren are not especially good but they’re not particularly amateur either. They move the ball well and in European football, there’s frankly not an awful lot of difference between Icelandic and Liechtenstinian sides, irrespective of what the odds suggest. I think FH could be good enough to win here but since when have Icelandic sides travelled well? FH have lost their last what – four games away from home in Europe? In Belarus against BATE, in Portugal against Nacional, in Kazakhstan against Aktobe etc. In fact, the last time they did get a result abroad was against Aston Villa, ironically enough, drawing 1-1. That followed a 1-4 home defeat, however, so the result was academic to say the least. FH don’t score away from home very often in Europe and I usually attribute that to their tactics as they tend to have enough quality. I just don’t see them running away with this one like the bookies seem to think that they will. Their hosts can play football, as they demonstrated in the first leg, and I think that they’ll give FH a tough game here. I won’t touch the 1×2 market but barring a catastrophic display from Eschen/Mauren, I think there’s value on giving them a +1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Verdict: Eschen/Mauren to win with +1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs St.Patrick’s Athletic – home win with draw no bet at 5/6.
These two sides must be sick of playing each other! They met the year before with St.Patrick’s Athletic losing the away leg and winning the home leg with the Irish side progressing 2-1 on aggregate. So far, the Irish side won the home leg of this tie – wouldn’t it be fitting if IBV won their home leg again? I think so.
Either way, I don’t expect this tip to lose. Why? Well, Vestmannaeyjar is hard enough for the Icelandic sides to play in, let alone foreigners. Christ, it’s a hell of a task to actually get there, to this rugged little island group off the south-west of Iceland. Do we really expect St.Patrick’s Athletic to do anything but defend here? I very much doubt it. It makes sense on every level for them to do that as they have a lead and they know that IBV’s biggest problem is converting their chances. Defensively, IBV are sound but goalscoring is not their forté. Still, they bring a new meaning to “home advantage” and I expect them to make it count today, no matter how resilient St.Patrick’s Athletic are in this game. My sole concern would perhaps be that IBV’s side tends to edge on the side of youth rather than experience and that can cost sides in Europe. Still, the quality is there for them to manage a win here and I would be very surprised to see the Irish outfit actually win this game so my call is the home win with draw no bet cover at 5/6.
Verdict: IBV Vestmannaeyjar to win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik – away win at 5/6.
Over the past few years, Keflavik was not a side that I would go against when playing at home. This side is one of “those sides” that seems to have special powers of survival at home. They pull off some strange results, especially against FH Hafnarfjordur, and generally tend to piss everyone off.
Bizarrely enough, Keflavik finally became a normal side this season. They’re a lot more attack-minded and it tends to look good on paper, especially on the road. However, there’s a very notable pattern about Keflavik’s results and it pleases me because they finally make sense. Basically, Keflavik’s attacking tactics only work well against either sides that they’re better than right now (e.g. UMF Grindavik) or against sides that defend without having a good attacking threat to counter-attack with (e.g. Breidablik Kopavogur). Note their track record against superior sides this season, though. Yes, that’s right – they’ve lost all of them. 0-1 against Stjarnan, 3-2 at IA, 4-0 at Valur, 2-4 against FH – they’re very predictable right now and I like that. I admire Keflavik’s spirit and their ability to make themselves hard to play against no matter who they face in Iceland. However, they’re not good enough to take down KR Reykjavik today, in my view, hence the selection.
For me, KR Reykjavik are probably the best side in Iceland right now. FH are the one that are drawing the plaudits but KR are the ones that are efficiently and ruthlessly finishing sides off. It doesn’t matter what style their opponents play, KR are finding ways through, which is impressive on a number of levels as it’s efficient and it demonstrates a determination and a cohesion that KR have rarely had in the past. Give big Finnbogason a chance and he’ll score it. If height isn’t working out, KR mix it up with Ragnarsson, Sigurdsson, and Hauksson getting involved from midfield. With old Gudjonsson making all the right moves, they’ve got the freedom to do as they wish. KR are a very complete side and I like their shape and reliability very much indeed.
Barring one of Keflavik’s trademark upsets, odds of 5/6 on the away win look great value to me today as I cannot fathom how Keflavik will manage to contain KR.
Verdict: KR Reykjavik to win at 5/6.
Team news
UEFA Europa League:
Trans Narva – No news.
Levadia Tallinn – Rattel, Ingermann, and Raudsepp return.
Kalmar FF – Squad named as Wasta, Thorbjornsson, Israelsson, Arajuuri, Rydstrom, S.Andersson, Fagercrantz, Dauda, Nouri, Skjelvik, Mendes, McDonald, Gutu, Hallberg, Diouf, Ohman, Soderqvist, Djordjevic, and Berisha.
Lech Poznan – Tralka and Krivets are absent.
JJK Jyvaskyla – No news.
KuPS Kuopio – Obifule may feature.
MyPa Anjalankoski – Sihvola, Aho, Kaipio, Anttilainen, and Perttula are absent.
Jagodina – Gogic is a doubt.
Osijek – Sorsa is absent. Jugovic and Glavas are doubts.