TFT Issue 453!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
First things first – be very careful if betting on the Norwegian Divisjon 1. Reports were published in the Norwegian tabloids last week about fixed games in the lower leagues but also mentioned a game or two in Divisjon 1. Indeed, Ullensaker/Kisa vs Ham Kam was postponed last time around because one of the Ullensaker/Kisa defenders wagered a large amount of money on his team losing the game. I’ve tipped one game today from that division so do take it with a pinch of salt!
Veikkausliiga/Allsvenskan/Eliteserien/Serie A Thoughts
Alright – so, the Allsvenskan game today that I won’t be touching is Kalmar vs Elfsborg. Why? Elfsborg aren’t playing well and Kalmar just secured a morale-boosting 4-0 win. Cliftonville may not look like much of an opponent but Kalmar don’t score goals and they had lost a lot of confidence. Motivated against a big side with their passionate supporters at their backs and momentum on their side, Kalmar may spring a surprise here. Elfsborg are the better side, yes, but you won’t often see that on natural turf, which is what Kalmar use. Elfsborg rested players in Malta earlier this week but it’s not the physical fitness of the players that bothers me – it’s their ineffectual displays. Elfsborg have temporarily lost their efficiency and that’s a huge problem because unlike Malmo etc. they don’t create masses of chances per game. Generally speaking, they create a few and take them because they’re clinical. If they’re not taking them then they won’t win games. Very tight game, this one – not one to bet on.
Veikkausliiga games look good fun today. The worst one by far is Haka vs MyPa though. It’s anyone’s guess as to what will happen here as these two have been the most unpredictable sides in Finland this season. MyPa have to be tired from all these games but are playing very good football. Haka play well sporadically and love to upset the odds. They’re battlers so MyPa won’t have it easy here. Haka are conceding stupid goals though so anything could happen in this one – 0-0, 1-1, 2-1, 0-2 – just don’t bet on it!
The Eliteserien games look quite interesting too. I don’t see much value there, though. I’m surprised to see Rosenborg as long as they are at Haugesund, despite the undeniable fortress that Haugesund have built at their stadium over the past two years. If any side is fortunate enough to win without playing well then it’s Rosenborg. Tight, horrible game to bet on though – don’t go there. Sogndal are better than Stabaek and did alright against Tromso but have travelled a lot lately so may be tired. Stabaek will definitely be tired after their games with JJK of Finland and they have zero depth. I was tempted to take Sogndal at 4/5 but I can’t bring myself to do it as neither side is consistent enough to be relied upon. Viking are playing badly and Honefoss are a bad side. Should be a narrow home win and I’d take it if I had any faith in Viking but I simply don’t. It’s the kind of game that they should win 1-0 but will most probably lose 0-1 due to an own goal. I like Aalesund to beat Fredrikstad but at 7/10? Aalesund aren’t worth 7/10 against any side in Norway. They don’t possess the firepower to earn those odds. Fredrikstad may be shipping goals but they’re scoring them too. It usually only takes a goal to upset Aalesund’s measured approach to their games so it’s not one to bet on unless you can nab Aalesund to win at evens – Rekdal’s side usually manages that at home.
Lastly, there are plenty of good games in Serie A tonight. There are a few that I don’t like, though, and one of them is Sport Recife vs Portuguesa. Quality-wise, there’s little between them. Long trip north for any side to face Sport Recife on their rocky pitch. Very hard side to play against. Not a very hard side to defend against, though. It’s a must-win for both sides, realistically speaking, and Sport Recife tend to lose their heads in situations like these. Under 2.5 goals interests me but I can’t bring myself to bet on such a tight game. I also don’t like Vasco vs Atletico Goianiense. Vasco are the better side, sure, but they’re being handed out odds as if they’re already a Fluminense or an Internacional, which they’re not – yet. They’ve still got a lot to learn despite possessing some quality players. Atletico Goianiense are not a good side but I question Vasco’s ability to break a handicap when they haven’t kept a clean sheet at home this season. Should be 2-0 but will probably be 2-1 if Vasco get complacent at the back. The other game I really don’t like is the big Sao Paulo derby between Palmeiras and Sao Paulo. These two sides do not like each other and there will most likely be cards here. Palmeiras are bloody awful, though – they don’t score goals. Sao Paulo look goodof late but will the honeymoon period end during the derby now that Franco is back at the helm? I don’t like that Sao Paulo keep conceding despite winning. It spells out to me that they will get caught out when they take on a good side and although I don’t like Palmeiras, they do have a good midfield. Sao Paulo should edge this one, especially after Palmeiras played in the Copa do Brasil Final (and won it!) mid-week and may rest players here. Still, this is a derby – big no bet, especially with Lucas Moura out.
Featured game
Internacional vs Santos – home win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the heavyweight Serie A encounter between Internacional and Santos.
Internacional have had to let Leandro Damiao and Oscar leave for the Olympics so they won’t feature in this game, according to reports. However, the glorious thing about the current Internacional side is that they’re not a one-man team. They’ve got a very strong and deep squad, in my view. Dagoberto may not be the most clinical of strikers but his pace and movement is always hard to handle. Internacional have just signed the legendary Diego Forlan, although I’m not sure if he’s allowed to play in this game or not, to be honest. Datolo is back, Guinazu and D’Alessandro are still patrolling the midfield (although D’Alessandro is suspended today), and Jaja is not one to underestimate so Internacional are still firing on all cylinders as far as attacking goes. They’re pretty tight defensively anyway and should be able to dictate this game as they see fit, which is what tends to happen in Porto-Alegrense anyway. Internacional are one of the more complete sides in Brazil right now and I rate them highly, especially on their own turf.
Admittedly, it does help my bet that they’re facing Santos. Santos are a very attacking side, irrespective of whether it’s their “A” team or their “B” team that turns up. Santos have injury problems, which doesn’t help. They’re already catastrophic at the back but players are falling like flies so that they can barely complete a back four. In addition to that, they’ve had to release the two big stars of the team in Neymar and Ganso as they’ve departed for the Olympics. In addition to them, number one goalkeeper Cabral has also flown to the UK so Santos are really struggling to get a solid starting eleven together here.
There are still good players in this Santos side but against a top-class side like Internacional, it’s hard to see them managing to do anything but lose this game. Internacional should have more than enough in the tank to see Santos off today at 4/5.
Verdict: Internacional to win at 4/5.
Additional games
Botafogo vs Fluminense – Fluminense to score over 1.5 goals at 11/10.
It’s derby day in Rio de Janeiro with in-form Botafogo hosting the impassive Fluminense and we look set for a cracking game of football between these two. Botafogo confidence is sky-high following the signing of Clarence Seedorf (although he can’t play today) and the fact that they’ve just won 1-3 at giants Corinthians will have only boosted their confidence further. Botafogo play Santos-esque attacking football with no care for defence, which works well against the lesser sides. Against the bigger sides, though, it can be hit-and-miss. It worked against Corinthians, who puzzlingly didn’t show up again. If you let Botafogo play, you’ll get beat – it’s as simple as that. When they take on a big side, though, it can really bite them in the backside and that’s what I fear will happen today. It’s very easy to be seduced by the number of goals that Botafogo score but look at how many they concede too. Barring their win against poor-travelling Bahia, Botafogo have conceded at least two goals per home game all season long. They’re not far off emulating it on the road, either! They’ve recorded some impressive results and I won’t write them off from doing well in one of Rio’s big derbies but at the same time, I would emphasise caution on getting carried away with Botafogo.
For me, Fluminense are the better side here. They’ve got a very deep squad and a top-class manager in Abel Braga. Unlike the vast majority of Serie A sides, Fluminense have the capability to mix it up by either deploying some very attacking tactics or defending and counter-attacking in lethal fashion. The fact that they’re unbeaen in Serie A this season tells you how strong Fluminense are tactically. They’ve got talismanic striker Fred back, who came back with a bang, scoring the only goal in their big derby win against Flamengo last time out. Essential playmaker Thiago Neves is back too, which is another huge boost for Fluminense, especially with Deco sitting out today’s game. This side is very mature and composed whilst also possessing a lot of quality attacking players. I think it’s going to take a mammoth effort from Botafogo to dislodge Fluminense here so we should see a very good game.
Fluminense have scored at least once in all of their away games this season and have bagged at least two goals in each of their last two away games. Botafogo tend to concede at least two goals per home game. Although I’d not get involved on the 1×2 side of this derby, I do like the odds of Fluminense scoring over 1.5 goals at 11/10.
Verdict: Fluminense to score over 1.5 goals at 11/10.
Cruzeiro vs Gremio – home win at evens.
There’s no secret here, guys – the fact is that I’ll take most sides to beat Gremio right now for reasons I’ve gone into in great depth recently. I don’t like Cruzeiro, as it happens, but Belo Horizonte is a place that no away side likes to play. Cruzeiro have a very experienced target man in Wellington Paulista and now that pacey Anselmo Ramon has returned, Cruzeiro should be able to deploy their best possible attack, especially with Montillo supporting them. New signing Borges may feature, in addition to the above! Only Sao Paulo have left Belo Horizonte with anything but a defeat from Cruzeiro’s last three home games and although a rather dour and uninteresting side in general, you have to fancy Cruzeiro to at least score here and that should be enough for them to win it. Gremio lost their number one goalkeeper, have no more than a handful of defenders available to them for this game, don’t score goals, and almost never come from behind due to a real lack of firepower. They’re in a bad place right now and morale is low following consecutive losses. If Cruzeiro score the opening goal then the home win looks very good to me at evens as long as Cruzeiro keep an eye on Gremio new boy Elano.
Verdict: Cruzeiro to win at evens.
Bahia vs Flamengo – home win with draw no bet at 4/5.
There aren’t many Serie A sides that I wouldn’t take Bahia to beat with draw no bet at 5/6 whilst playing in Vitoria and there aren’t many sides that I wouldn’t take to beat Flamengo with draw no bet odds of 5/6 either!
Bahia are rock-solid at home. This side does not lose games easily on their own turf. I’ve heard the Vitoria region referred to as one of the hardest to visit in Brazil and that would support the outstanding records that both big Vitoria clubs have possessed at home in Serie A over the years. Bahia hassle their opponents like fury at home and attack really well, not to mention with great belief. If a side wins in Vitoria against Bahia then they’ve done bloody well, basically. Santos drew here, Internacional drew here – you can see what I mean. Is it any wonder, though? Not only are Bahia resilient but they’re pretty damn good too. Their midfield generally contains the excellent Mancini (despite his advancing years) and the experienced Ze Roberto but now it also has World Cup winner Kleberson in the middle too. This is a strong midfield for Serie A football and clubs that play here know it. I have my reservations about the lack of quality strikers that Bahia have but they attack as a unit so I’m not too concerned about that side of things.
I like that Bahia are hosting Flamengo today, though, I must admit. Flamengo are bloody awful! Letting Ronaldinho go was a mistake; they should have just paid his wages. He could have won them any game and now they just look extremely average without him. Target man Deivid may be back to partner the excellent Vagner Love in attack but he’ll be disappointed as Vagner Love is suspended today, which makes Flamengo’s attack horribly bland; moreso than normal. There’s no creativity in midfield and they’ve subsequently failed to score for two consecutive away games now, losing both times because their defence isn’t good enough to keep their opponents out at any stage. Only Botinelli bothers to make anything happen in midfield for Flamengo but he’s out today and Renato Abreu is getting on a bit. Flamengo can still spring a surprise with Vagner Love up top but he’s not playing today and in general, this is an average and frankly dying team.
For me, there’s bags of value in taking a tenacious Bahia to win this game with draw no bet at 5/6, especially with Flamengo also missing Marcos Gonzalez.
Verdict: Bahia to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Inter Turku vs JJK Jyvaskyla – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Dragtsma’s side finally broke their duck by beating reigning champions HJK Helsinki 2-0 in their last Veikkausliiga game. It came at the perfect time, too – heads had dropped a lot and Inter looked like they were about to surrender their title challenge. The race is well and truly open again now, though, with just one point separating HJK from Inter. Confidence and relief have spread through the Inter camp and now they enter their home game against JJK with renewed confidence. They couldn’t have picked a better time to play JJK, either.
JJK have just come back from a tough game in Norway against Stabaek. Despite losing 3-2 on the night, JJK progressed to the next round with a 4-3 victory on aggregate so they’ll be pleased with that. They’ll also be bloody tired, however, and JJK are not notorious for their big squad. They’ve lost one of their three core midfielders in Manninen for a while, which again heaps the pressure on Gruborovics, which isn’t ideal. It’s the fourth game for JJK in ten days, they’ve just lost one of their best players, and they’ve now got to face one of the best sides in the country away from home. This will be a very interesting test for JJK, in my view. I like JJK a lot but this side cannot and will not keep clean sheets if anyone so much as sets foot in their half of the field. Wusu is in good form, fortuitously, and I won’t rule JJK out from at least scoring here.
However, I can’t lie; I expect Inter to batter them here. JJK have conceded at least two goals per away game for five out of their seven on the road in the Veikkausliiga this season. They’ve also lost all five of their last five visits to Turku. If Inter don’t win this game, which is perfectly set up for them, then they need to take a long, hard look in the mirror and ask themselves whether they’re fit to be title challengers or not ’cause there’s no way on earth that JJK should be able to handle the attacking threats of Sirbiladze, Kauko, Ojala, and Lehtonen here.
Verdict: Inter Turku to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
FC Honka Espoo vs Jaro Pietarsaari – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
I can’t be 100% sure but I’m pretty confident that there was a collective sigh when Honka conceded the most stupid of own goals in their last home game against IFK Mariehamn. They were the better side and they should have won the game but as ever, Honka fell upon their own sword by defending like morons. It’s comforting to see them attacking with belief and purpose again, though. Honka can score against any side in Finland when it suits them and that’s precisely what I expect them to do today, even after their battling 2-1 loss at TPS Turku lately.
Still, Jaro are the form side right now and Eremenko’s team are causing problems for whichever side they face. It’s target man Jonke who is making the difference as he gives Jaro an additional dimension in attack (no pun intended). He can either score headers or flick them on for others, not to mention score from set pieces. His presence gives Niang more freedom to move and his pace is difficult to deal with. Throw Agyeman into the mix and we have a dangerous Jaro attack, basically. The problem that faces Eremenko is that without one of those three players, Jaro do tend to struggle. However, I don’t believe that that’s a problem for today so I’ll leave that one down to the Russian boss! Jaro are playing good football with plenty of belief right now so don’t expect Honka to cruise this one because I’d be surprised if they did.
For me, there should be plenty of goals here. Both sides have demonstrated their capabilities in front of goal and their ineptitude in front of their own goal on innumerate occasions this season so taking over 2.5 goals looks very interesting at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Brann Bergen vs Odd Grenland Skien – home win at 5/6.
I can’t say that I’m a big fan of Brann Bergen but I do like the odds on them winning this one today. They defend like absolute morons but they do attack well at home. Only bitter rivals Viking Stavanger have left Bergen with a clean sheet this season and with Nigerian duo Ojo and Akabueze wreaking havoc up front, it’s no surprise that that is the case. Mjelde and Nordkvelle provide good support for them, as does Askar, and ultimately Brann manage to score goals as a unit. They really can’t defend, though, so it’s prudent to expect them to concede at all times. Happily, they’re hosting Odd Grenland here, who don’t tend to travel well. Odd Grenland are arguably a more cohesive side but they don’t play well on natural turf and they don’t score goals. Big Frode Johnsen up front is a good striker but he’s ancient now and he has to have legs around him or the Odd Grenland attacks fail. It works well at home when Odd Grenland see more of the ball but away from home they struggle because he gets isolated very easily. Odd Grenland still aren’t an easy side to play against but given that I expect Brann to at least score here, they should have enough in the tank to beat Odd Grenland in this game.
Verdict: Brann Bergen to win at 5/6.
Start Kristiansand vs Alta – Start Kristiansand to beat the -1 Asian Handicap in the second-half at 4/5.
On paper, you’d perhaps expect a comfortable home win with only a couple of goals scored, given Alta’s results on the road this season. However, I think that Start may rip into little Alta today and I’ll explain why.
Start are top of Divisjon 1 because they’re the best side in it, for my money. Some of their players are Eliteserien players, which naturally helps. They’ve already recorded five wins from five at home and I expect this to be their sixth. However, the reason that I think they’ll exploit Alta today because of how far they’ve travelled to play the game. For Alta to travel to Kristiansand, they have to travel the vast majority of the length of Norway as they’re far in the north with Tromsdalen. They only played a game in Alta four days ago, surprisingly losing 2-3 at home. That may have knocked their confidence here. I think they’ll come here to play their defensive game, as ever, and maybe they’ll hold out until half-time – who knows? However, I do see them getting tired in the second-half and Start capitulating, just like Tromso did against Sogndal recently for the same reason. Ironically, they had been playing Start too earlier that week, albeit in the NM Cupen. Start score most of their home goals in the second-half and they’ve got the players at their command to overcome little Alta. Therefore, my call is for Start to beat the -1 Asian Handicap in the second-half at 4/5.
Verdict: Start Kristiansand to beat the -1 Asian Handicap in the second-half at 4/5.
Team news
Brazilian Serie A:
Bahia – Avine and Jeferson are absent. Elias is a doubt.
Flamengo – Vagner Love, Botinelli, Maldonado, Marcos Gonzalez, and Leo Moura are absent. Deivid and Airton return.
Botafogo – Mattos and Seedorf are absent.
Fluminense – Diego Cavalieri, Deco, Diguinho, Rafael Moura, and Rafael Sobis are absent. Wellington Nem is a big doubt.
Cruzeiro – Willian Magrao, Charles, and Alex Silva are absent. Borges could debutise.
Gremio – Anderson Pico, Edilson, Fabio Aurelio, and Julio Cesar are absent. Gabriel and Para may return. Kleber and Leo Gago are doubts. Elano may debutise.
Internacional – Leandro Damiao, D’Alessandro, Oscar, Forlan, Kleber, Datolo, and Rodrigo Moledo are absent.
Santos – Neymar, Ganso, Rafael, Edu Dracena, Fucile, Galhardo, Bernardo, and David Braz are absent. Miralles may debutise.
Palmeiras – Thiago Heleno, Barcos, Luan, and Wesley are absent. Marcos Assuncao is a doubt.
Sao Paulo – New boss – Ney Franco. Fabricio, Lucas Moura, Uvini, Rogerio Ceni, Canete, and Wellingotn are absent. Casemiro, Cicero, and Luis Fabiano return. Rafael Toloi may debutise.
Sport Recife – Azevedo, Willian Rocha, and Bruno Aguilar are absent. Felipe Menezes may debutise.
Portuguesa – Rogerio and Gustavo return.
Vasco da Gama – Rodolfo, Felipe Bastos, Renato Silva, and Eder Luis are absent. Diego Souza is still at the club despite continued interest from Al Ittihad.
Atletico Goianiense – Ricardo Bueno, Leonardo, Felipe Brisola, Adriano Pimenta are absent. Gilson and Cruz return. Vanderlei may debutise.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku – No news.
JJK Jyvkaslya – Manninen is absent.
Haka Valkeakoski – Dema and Kastrati are absent. Luoto is a doubt.
MyPa Anjalankoski – Sihvola, Aho, and Kalpio are absent. Oksanen and Anttilainen are doubts.