TFT Issue 454!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Veikkausliiga/Allsvenskan/Superligaen/Urvalsdeild Thoughts
The only Veikkausliiga game today is between FC Lahti and IFK Mariehamn. Lahti are over-achieving but scoring goals whilst IFK Mariehamn are having a great season but rarely do well on the road. IFK aren’t the best at goalscoring but they excel at frustrating sides and they will get their chances against a poor Lahti defence. That said, Lahti seem to have special powers of survival, especially at home. Their best player – Taulo – has left and they’re still horribly short in attack and yet they can score goals for fun when it suits them! I just can’t see any value in this one. Logic says that a 0-0 or 0-1 is on the cards but there is very little logic that can be applied to most of Lahti’s games so it’s better to skip this one entirely.
For the Allsvenskan games, I was tempted to bet on both of them but didn’t as I didn’t like the odds one bit. Malmo should flatten most sides at home and GAIS are no exception. However, with the impending sale of Durmaz looming and the fact that GAIS are a big game team, I’m somewhat cautious about handicapping Malmo here. Of course they should beat the handicap but that doesn’t mean a lot in football, does it? I’d only take the Asian Handicap at 5/6 or longer, if at all – GAIS can hurt sides. Don’t be fooled by the fact that GAIS haven’t scored for two games – they’ve encountered sides that have stuck men behind the ball an awful lot and GAIS hate that. They won’t have that problem today, though. A cheeky bet on both sides to score interested me but you never know which GAIS will show up. It’s definitely one to watch if you’re going to bet on it or you’ll most likely lose whatever you bet on. Similarly, Djurgarden vs IFK Norrkoping is one that you need to watch before placing a bet. Djurgarden are too short to win this game when you consider that their best defender has been ruled out for the rest of the season through injury, that they can’t keep a clean sheet at any time, and that they struggle to break sides down at home. On the counter-attack, Djurgarden are top-notch so be wary there. They don’t do well when it comes to breaking down the door, though, and IFK Norrkoping are quite good at shutting that door when it suits them. IFK prefer the bigger games to show up in but they’ve shown plenty of energy and spirit lately to gain two very credible results. They’re not a bad side, IFK, although their defence can randomly implode away from home on the odd occasion. Still, there’s more tactical intelligence and momentum in their favour right now than there is in favour of Djurgarden, who failed to beat Syrianska in their last game despite Syrianska being reduced to nine men. I like the idea of taking both sides to score in this game but odds of 8/11 aren’t good enough for me – I’d want evens on that selection due to the counter-attacking nature of both sides. Other than that, I don’t see any value in this game either.
In Denmark, it’s the opening game of the Superligaen for AC Horsens and FC Nordsjaelland. The visitors are the reigning champions and are marginally better than Horsens but this should be a very tight game. Horsens play good football and they’re not easy to beat at home. Both sides have lost key defenders pre-season although FCN have helpfully been able to add Nordstrand to their attack, which should help them a lot. I fancied taking both sides to score here as both do play some attractive attacking football but it’s the first game of the season and thus there’s even more desire than normal to not put a foot wrong so a 0-0 is not impossible here. I’d rather sit on the fence than bet on this one.
Last but not least, we take a brief look into the two Icelandic games that I don’t like. Fylkir are better than Grindavik, simply put, but their odds are too short here. Grindavik are in a bit of a “purple patch” right now and they’re not easy to beat when they’re playing like that. Fylkir also have an unfortunate habit of only scoring a goal per game in general and thus any goals conceded can be fatal. With those reasons in mind, I really can’t endorse betting on anything in this game. IA Akranes are too short to beat Selfoss at home, in my view. I quite fancy the idea of an upset there but I haven’t got enough to substantiate it. IA are a huge side but their players are playing like they expected to breeze the Urvalsdeild without any effort. At the start of the season, they worked and got their rewards for it. Right now, they look like they couldn’t care less and that’s really bad news for a side that already cannot defend. If you’re shipping lots of goals and not scoring any then you know what is coming. IA are in a rut and I don’t see the leadership nor the motivation to get them out of it. Selfoss aren’t as good as IA but they’re a lot more motivated and hard-working. They’re a hard side to beat and they will score goals on the road when opportunity knocks. As long as their organisation is good and they utilise their usual work-rate then I don’t think Selfoss will lose this one. The odds are just a bit too short for me to lay IA, though, so I’ll sit on the fence here too.
Featured game
Stromsgodset vs Sandnes Ulf – over 3 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Eliteserien game in Norway between Stromsgodset and Sandnes Ulf.
Stromsgodset have set the Eliteserien alight this season with their beautiful attacking football. This style is not new to them, nor to the Eliteserien fans, but we’ve not seen Stromsgodset implement it as well and as consistently as they have done this season for some time. They have a lot of belief for a very young side, which is impressive. They attack with pace and skill and Norwegian sides really struggle against that kind of approach as very few Eliteserien sides play this way. Molde FK do it too but the rest tend to either play defence first or on counter-attacks. Subsequently, Stromsgodset have no fear and why should they? They believe that they can win every game and they’re playing well enough to do so. Over the years, Stromsgodset have established themselves as one of the hardest sides in Norway to face at home on their artificial turf at the Marienlyst in Drammen and that’s not changed this season. All that has changed this season is that Stromsgodset have become worryingly adept to winning on the road too! Stromsgodset can mix it up when they wish with towering Hungarian striker Kovacs to hand if they need to play long balls/score from set pieces so they’re not a one-dimensional side either. I really enjoy watching Stromsgodset, although their attempts at defending are laughable to say the least. They’re a good fun side and they score goals regularly, which is impressive.
Visitors Sandnes Ulf play with a similar spirit to Stromsgodset but lack the quality of their hosts. They often look impressive against sides that cannot defend as Sandnes Ulf are good on the counter-attack. Unfortunately, they’re bloody awful at breaking sides down. Any side that faces them with any kind of organisation and tactical awareness will beat Sandnes Ulf. Happily, organisation is something that Stromsgodset don’t really give a shit about so the visitors should at least feel that they have a chance here. After all, they’re one of the top goalscoring sides in the Eliteserien when playing away from home because there’s no pressure and they are good at counter-attacking, as I said earlier. They’ve got some decent players to score their goals, too, with Hoiland, Thorsteinsson, and especially former Rosenborg midfielder Skjolsvik in their ranks. I admire the spirit of tiny Sandnes Ulf but there’s very little else going for them as quality is short in their term and thus they should comfortably lose this game today.
However, anyone can score against Stromsgodset and the visitors are more than capable of doing so as Stromsgodset will attack them here. The -1 Asian Handicap appealed to me for Stromsgodset but the odds are criminally short so I’ve overlooked that one. However, taking over 3 goals at 4/5 looks a bit of a steal today with the above in mind.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 4/5.
Additional game
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Breidablik Kopavogur – home win at 9/10.
I can’t say that I understand the odds on the home win in this game. The Urvalsdeild table is inaccurate at the moment in the sense that it portrays Stjarnan to be the third best team in it. However, that placing is testament to their form right now and the momentum that has stemmed from it. They’ve won three out of their last four Urvalsdeild games and they should have won the other game having outplayed FH Hafnarfjordur and led 0-2 at one stage. Stjarnan are a very attack-minded side; by far the most attacking side in Iceland, for my money. They can’t defend, which is a bit of a problem when betting on them as they’ll give you several heart-attacks during what should be a routine win. However, their all-out-attack style works really well for them and other sides just don’t know how to deal with it – even FH Hafnarfjordur didn’t! Stjarnan are a goalscoring side and that makes them very hard to play against, especially on their own turf. Breidablik’s defensive tactics are polar opposite to the way that Stjarnan play, of course. Breidablik are very good at it, too. However, there are a number of sides in Iceland that you can stop with that kind of approach so it’s no surprise that they’ve adopted it over the past few years. Still, it means that they really struggle to create chances and score goals. They’ve bagged a meager eight goals this season and although they’ve only conceded twelve, it has to concern them that they’ve no capacity to play any other style. If they fall behind, they’ve no way of getting back into a game, you know? Even against a horrendous defence like Stjarnan’s! They’ve only managed to avoid defeat once this season when falling behind – just once! That’s not down to their work ethic, I can assure you – they’re very well-organised and hard-working. However, they don’t have firepower nowadays and haven’t had it since Finnbogason left for Lokeren. They’re going to have to be at their best today to not concede against Stjarnan and I think it’s a lofty ambition in the most generous of phrasings, especially when you consider that Keflavik stuffed four past Breidablik in Kopavogur a week ago. This is a horrible game for Breidablik to play, to be honest. Stjarnan have scored the first goal in all of their four home games this season and they’re also the highest scoring side in the Urvalsdeild when it comes to scoring in the first-half of their home games. Breidablik need the first goal to stand a chance of not losing this game and I just don’t see how they’re going to manage it. For me, there’s potentially a lot of value in taking Stjarnan to win at 9/10.
Verdict: Stjarnan Gardabaer to win at 9/10.
Team news
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens – Retov is absent.
FC Nordsjaelland – No absentees.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Lahti – Kari, Kemppinen, and Veltheim are absent. Hukka and Lepola are doubts.
IFK Mariehamn – No news.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Djurgarden – Pedersen is absent.
IFK Norrkoping – Skjonsberg, Tankovic, Hassan, and Frempong are absent.
Malmo FF – Wilton is absent.
GAIS Goteborg – No news.