TFT Issue 455!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Ok, we’ve established that all of my luck is currently hibernating and some of the games today are much closer than they look so bet with caution!
Featured game
Flora Tallinn vs Basel – away win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Estonia between Flora Tallinn and Swiss heavyweights Basel.
Having no doubt seen Basel numerous times last season, I really don’t think that any of you need me to tell you that they’re the better side here, even without the departed Shaqiri, who is now with Bayern Munich. They’ve still got some cracking players and the experience and finesse of both Frei and Streller up front makes this Basel side very dangerous indeed. Still, you guys should know that already.
What you may not know, however, is that Estonian football has taken a backward step in the last year or two. One year, Levadia Tallinn were causing good sides big problems. Since they got hit with financial problems, they’ve dropped like a stone and Flora Tallinn aren’t much different nowadays. Their boss and his assistant haven’t been paid, as haven’t a number of their players. Morale is suffering and rumours are already circling that players and staff alike will be leaving the club either this season or next. This side lacks leadership with no more than four players over the age of 25 and against an experienced and dangerous side like Basel, you really have to fear for Flora here. They’re not in a good position and Basel can really punish sides when it suits them. The only thing that benefits Flora is that they’re mid-season whereas the Swiss Super League has only just began. However, there’s already a huge class difference here so the addition of experience and morale in favour of the visitors makes this game look like a money-spinner to me, especially having seen how easily Trans Narva got ripped apart lately.
For me, there should be plenty of value on Basel to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Verdict: Basel to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Additional games
Ulisses Yerevan vs Sheriff Tiraspol – under 2 goals at evens.
Tough game, this one. Armenia is a tough place to go for any visiting side and Sheriff are no exception. Ulisses have improved over the past few years but they’re still a pretty poor side, in my view. The odds are correctly set for moneybags Sheriff as the Moldovan side are good enough and experienced enough to win this game.
However, there are more obstacles than that to consider here. Sheriff are the better side, yes. Not all is well in their camp, though, with some very important attackers having already been ruled out of this game. Top goalscorer Bolima is the most notorious absentee as Sheriff don’t have a natural replacement for him, especially with big Volas having moved on to Mordovia Saransk in Russia. Joining him on the sidelines are Cheptine, Henrique, and the essential Pesic. All four players are regulars and the removal of both Pesic and Bolima means that Sheriff scoring here is going to take something of a miracle as they’re a very well-organised defensive unit on the road in Europe and I see little in their ranks that will make them play otherwise today. Ulisses still haven’t scored a goal in European competition and with an experienced opponent like Sheriff at their doors, I don’t see that changing today. Ulisses need to win here to have any chance of progression but how they’ll manage it is beyond me.
Rumours are abroad in the forums of this game being a fixed home win. I don’t think I buy it, primarily because this money means a lot to Sheriff and I don’t believe that Ulisses have the money to fix it. Either way, for me the value has to be in taking under 2 goals at evens, particularly after Sheriff’s recent exploits in Europe over the past few years with all of their away games being very low-scoring.
Verdict: Under 2 goals at evens.
Skenderbeu Korce vs Debreceni VSC – away win at 5/6.
Captain Shkembi is absent. Sidibe and Bouadla are absent.
The Albanian hosts have made some good changes over the past few seasons, according to reports. I’ve not seen much of them myself but it sounds like they’re trying to become the main club in Albania by signing all the top local players. I still don’t see Albanian opponents as being good enough to trouble sides like Debreceni although I daresay we’ll find out by the final whistle. No trip to Albania is ever easy as the locals are extremely passionate about their football. However, Debreceni are a very experienced European side and as long as they’re not drawn into their match-fixing ways again then they should record a fairly straightforward win here. They miss big Sidibe up front and regular attacking midfielder Bouadla for this game, which isn’t ideal as both are valuable attacking options for the Hungarian heavyweights. However, Coulibaly was outstanding up front last season for Debreceni and there were numerous impressive players in midfield so I’ll give the Hungarian visitors the nod to edge this game, especially with decent odds of 5/6 available on this selection.
Verdict: Debreceni VSC to win at 5/6.
Valletta vs Partizan Belgrade – home win with +1.5 handicap at 9/10.
There are some very interesting odds on display for this game. People are heavily favouring Partizan although I’m not sure I entirely agree with that. Yes, Partizan are the bigger and more recognisable side but let’s not overlook how much Maltese football has arisen over the past few years, particularly Valletta themselves.
For starters, Valletta themselves have three teams in Malta so they’re not short of options in their ranks. There are some very good passers of the ball and they attack very well. I wasn’t sure they’d deliver as well as they did in the last round but they were emphatic and absolutely lethal.
Now, Partizan are obviously from a better league and they’ll give a good display here, I’m sure, even with a new Manager at the helm. However, there are some very hot temperatures in Malta right now, which makes it very hard for any side to play football but especially sides that aren’t used to it. The pitch is half grass and half desert, according to recent reports, which again makes it hard to play on.
In addition to the above, Partizan are missing battling Kamara in midfield and Brazilian forward Eduardo. They still have the pace of young Markovic to cause problems, not to mention the intelligence of playmaker Vukic. However, I will be very surprised if this is an easy game for the visitors, particularly as Serbian sides are relatively infamous for not travelling well.
The final point that I’d make is that Partizan are not a goalscoring side nowadays. They’re an efficient side and nobody in Serbia does it better than they do. However, they don’t run riot very often and I don’t think they’ll do that today in these conditions, even if they do win. For me, the value is on giving the Maltese hosts a +1.5 handicap at 5/6, especially with a full squad available to them.
Incidentally, Partizan have looked very shaky at the back in recent friendlies. They’ve conceded at least two goals in the opening twenty minutes of each game. If they do that in Malta, they’re in for a very long night.
Verdict: Valletta to win with +1.5 handicap at 9/10.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
Partizan Belgrade – M.Scepovic, Eduardo, and Kamara are absent.
Valletta – No absentees.
Ekranas Panevezys – No absentees.
Flora Tallinn – Financial problems mean that boss Reim and his assistant Kivisild are contemplating leaving the club. Both players and non-playing staff alike have not been paid.
Slovan Liberec – Rabusic and Breznanik are absent.
MSK Zilina – No news.
Hapoel Kiryat Shmona – Boss Ben-Shimon left at the end of the last campaign and was replaced by Landau. Azulai and Njubvo left. Tasevski may debutise. Tibi is absent. Amos returns.
Helsingborg – Lindstrom is absent. Finnbogason and Sundin return.
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Viljandi – Mutt is absent.
Tammeka – No absentees.
Kuressaare – No news.
Sillamae Kalev – Ivanov is rumoured to be leaving.
Trans Narva – No news.
Flora Paide – Vanna and Istsuk have re-signed with the club.
Singaporean S-League:
Balestier Khalsa – No absentees.
Hougang United – Abdul Hamit and Ang are doubts.