TFT Issue 458!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Ykkonen/Allsvenskan/Eliteserien/Superligaen/Serie A Thoughts
Ok guys, let’s have a look at the ones that I am not interested in today!
As far as Ykkonen games go, the game between Viikingit and Hameenlinna is not up my street at all. Viikingit are much better than Hameenlinna and they’re also very good at home. However, Hameenlinna are a funny side. They tend to play much better football on the road than they do at home. They’re always a threat from set pieces and against a Viikingit side bereft of key attacker Gonzalez, I really wouldn’t be very keen to bet on this one at all.
The Allsvenskan games this week are a mirror of the ones played in the last round and I’ve never liked that scenario. I mean, you can spot the clubs with the better tactical approach to games over the season as they deal with each side as they come along. However, to face a side twice in a week or so makes it a lot more complicated as the memories of each player are fresh in mind and it really puts tactical knowledge to the test. Innovation and stamina will be key in this particular round so it should be interesting to see how each side does.
I do like the idea of taking IFK Goteborg to win at Gefle, I have to admit. However, I can’t substantiate it in the slightest because IFK are horribly unpredictable right now. They’re twice as good as Gefle and yet still can’t beat them. They’re on artificial turf, which they hate playing on. They’ve lost confidence and motivation and don’t convince me at all despite all the excellent attacking players in their squad. This is a game that IFK really should win but the way that they’ve conceded goals this season makes me think that there’s more value to be found in laying IFK as Gefle are very well-organised on their own patch, if nothing else. Should be a low-scorer but there’s always the potential for goals via embarrassment or merit when IFK play so I don’t see any value in this one.
The other game that doesn’t interest me is GIF vs Mjallby. These two sides look tired and are struggling to play to their best. Mjallby have lost Fejzullahu through suspension and their attack may be decimated in a couple of weeks if Mjallby can’t thrash out a deal with NEC Nijmegen to keep him in Sweden. El-Kabir is now not returning to Mjallby as he’s buggered off to play in Ukraine and losing Fejzullahu would do them a lot of damage, especially with the impressive Kivuvu heading back to Romania in the near future. GIF play better football than Mjallby and I would give them the edge here because of that. Neither side is convincing me right now, though. This game should cruise over 2.5 goals with Mjallby’s slow defence and the attacking power of both sides but neither side convinces me right now so “no bet”!
Moving on to Norway now – there’s just one game today. Molde are better than Viking and have shown it all season long. At home, Molde look impassive and I’d handicap the fuck out of them if there wasn’t a more important game awaiting them in Latvia next week. Molde need their first-team to break handicaps because they have to score a lot to compensate for their absent-minded defending. I doubt Solskjaer will field a full-strength side here as it doesn’t make sense. Viking are shit but they’re at least good at keeping the score down. Should be a gritty 1-0 or 2-1 here.
The Superligaen is yet to settle down and I don’t think it will today either. Midtylland and Nordsjaelland are pretty well-matched sides, in my view. The visitors are more efficient but there’s very little in it. Nordsjaelland looked impressive against Horsens and the acquisition of Nordstrand will clearly do them the power of good. However, never underestimate Midtylland – they play very good football ,especially at home. The sale of essential midfielder Poulsen pre-season hit them really hard, though – he cannot be replaced. What do Midtylland draw from their last game? You have to consider that. They were 0-2 up at a weaker but not awful Copenhagen side and then managed to lose 4-2, which was ridiculous. Taking both sides to score in-play might interest me but nothing else does with this one.
Lastly, we pop off to South America to take a quick look at the horrible games in Brazil’s Serie A tonight. Take Atletico Mineiro to win at Sport Recife if the form chart convinces you but I definitely won’t be. Recife is an intimidating place in the north of Brazil and arguably has the worst pitch in the country. If you believe the locals then you’ll believe that the pitch is actually painted rocks! Sport Recife are battlers and they will not make it easy for Atletico Mineiro’s “superstars”. The visitors are clearly the better side but this is the kind of game where it’s better to sit back and watch how they deal with a very difficult problem. I like Corinthians to flatten Portuguesa but they’re still lacking firepower and they’re not goalscorers so the handicap option doesn’t sit too well with me. I’m glad that they showed how good they are by battering an average Flamengo side in fashion – let’s see if they develop some consistency and momentum today. They really should do and there may be value in-play on Corinthians to win (it can take them some time to score with their patient style) and under 2.5 goals, depending on how Portuguesa approach the game. I don’t see any value pre-game, however. Lastly, I don’t like Vasco vs Santos one little bit. Vasco should take advantage of Santos’ absentees but then again, so should Internacional have done. So should Botafogo have done. Neither have even scored against Santos, though. Vasco have the players to upset Santos but their opponents can score against them too. Overs might interest me if there is a goal scored early in the game but aside from that, this is a colossal “no bet”.
Featured game
RoPS Rovaniemi vs Jippo Joensuu – RoPS Rovaniemi to score over 2.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Ykkonen game between RoPS Rovaniemi and Jippo Joensuu in the far north of Finland.
I’m a big fan of RoPS but I rarely take them to score lots of goals because it’s not their style nowadays. In the past they were very samba and would score goals and concede goals for fun. However, they’ve adopted a more sensible style following a massive overhaul for reasons beknown to us all and it works. There isn’t a more efficient side in the Ykkonen than RoPS Rovaniemi and the almost always show it at home.
So why am I taking them to score goals today? Well, RoPS have the firepower to break through Jippo, first of all. That’s the key to beating Jippo, as obvious as it might sound. If you get the first goal against them then they tend to fall apart. Jippo’s game has massively improved over the past month or so with Cameroonian striker Ngueukam being the most in-form player in the division right now. He’s causing loads of problems and may score today. However, Jippo are conceding way too many goals right now and haven’t kept a clean sheet since May, which is terrible for a side that prides itself on its defence. They’ve got a couple of credible results in Oulu this season but aside from that, Jippo have conceded at least three goals on each trip to face a big side.
Jippo still impress me, though, which is why I won’t take the handicap on RoPS here. However, I’m very keen on taking RoPS to score goals because Jippo’s side has been hit hard with injuries. As you may or may not know, Jippo have zero depth in their squad. Any absentees are big absentees; that’s simply how it is. Ekroos came back for a few games to help out, as he said he would, but he’s now gone back into retirement. Unfortunately for Jippo, it’s come at a time when fellow experienced defender Korpela and number one goalkeeper M.Ikonen have been ruled out with injury. L.Ikonen is out too, which doesn’t help their growing defensive crisis. Battling Gruda is out in midfield too, as is Cameroonian forward Koko’o, which leaves the goalscoring duties solely with Ngueukam. Other bit-part players are out too but the above should be enough to awaken your interest, really.
Unless Jippo hold out until half-time, I think they’re going to take a beating here. I rate RoPS’ defence so the handicap does interest me, I must confess. However, Ngueukam has been unplayable of late so I daren’t take that option. Instead, taking RoPS to score over 2.5 goals looks a steal at evens.
Verdict: RoPS Rovaniemi to score over 2.5 goals at evens.
Additional games
HJK Helsinki vs Haka Valkeakoski – home win with -2 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
As most of you know, I’ve not been a big fan of HJK so far this season. They don’t look as good as last year, despite them still possessing the best squad in Finland.
However, something changed prior to their game with KR Reykjavik mid-week and you saw the result of that. I’m talking about their signing of Mika Vayrynen, of course. The central midfielder’s career has gone a bit wayward, which is a shame. He’s come back to Finland way too early, in my view. However, make no mistake here – he’s a class act and despite not playing a game in the Veikkausliiga in a HJK shirt as of yet, he’s by far the best central midfielder in the division. I expect his impact to mirror that of Eremenko’s at Jaro last season or perhaps Riski’s at TPS Turku last season. Quality isn’t rife in this division and when it’s introduced, you can see it in the results almost immediately. Vayrynen played against KR Reykjavik earlier this week and I, along with a lot of Finns, expected a closer game than the bookies did. However, I didn’t know he’d be playing and the difference he made – well, you can see it for yourself. He scored a goal from the penalty spot in that game and HJK bagged three other goals whilst he was on the field. Again, he’s way too good for the Veikkausliiga and he could make a massive difference to their season, especially with big Sadik returning to bolster HJK’s striker options. HJK should be brimming with confidence following their dominant home win earlier this week and I think they’ll take that into today’s game.
Helpfully, Haka have not only bent over for HJK here but they’ve also pulled their pants down. Defensively, Haka have been a bit of a joke this season now that Nooitmeer isn’t there to organise their defence. Their clean sheets on the road this season tally at…one, which was attained against newly-promoted FC Lahti. Haka’s trips to the big boys – TPS Turku, Inter Turku, and even under-achieving KuPS Kuopio have resulted in Haka being beaten comfortably via one method or another. They don’t come much bigger than HJK in Finland and Haka know it, too, having lost against HJK in nine out of their last ten meetings in all competitions. For this game, Ristila’s team are missing a whole host of attacking players with ex-HJK playmaker Dema, pacey striker Metzger, and attacking midfielder Kastrati all ruled out. Puustinen has left the club, which leaves them with no good strikers. The Irish duo of Robinson and McFaul are always threats in midfield but with both Matrones likely to miss out for Haka today too, it’s hard to see them even remotely being in the game. With no attack and a severely depleted midfield at Ristila’s disposal, it’ll be a miracle if Haka survive this game without being torn apart, especially with regular defender Mattila out from their already dubious defence!
Verdict: HJK Helsinki to beat the -2 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Helsingborg – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Helsingborg appear to have reverted back into their goal-shy ways of late, failing to take the chances that come their way on a far too regular basis. Their game in Wales against TNS mid-week was a lot more open than it should have been and yet it still ended 0-0. Helsingborg now have a tricky task to beat the Welsh side at home in a few days time and there are no prizes for guessing which game they’ll prioritise between this one today and the game against TNS!
Helsingborg don’t have great depth in their squad. There’s lots of experience in there to make sure that they’re not embarrassed in games like these. However, I question their ability to create chances and to score them. There are far too many sides in Sweden nowadays that can stop Helsingborg from “doing their thing” because Helsingborg are predictable. Despite the massive stature of the club, consider that no side has scored less away goals than Helsingborg have in the Allsvenskan this season. They’re defensive and they’re not great at counter-attacking. They’ll punish defensive errors but they’re simply not a very good attacking side. Syrianska are a fairly weak side with a handful of decent players but don’t forget that this game means the world to them. They need all the points that they can get to help them beat the drop to the Superettan. They’re not good goalscorers themselves, unfortunately – only Touma seems to be able to find his way to goal on a regular basis. Syrianska were unlucky to lose 1-0 at Helsingborg a week or so ago but that’s how it goes sometimes. Their display was enough to convince me as to which way to go with this bet today, though.
For me, taking under 2.5 goals at 4/5 is the logical choice as long as Syrianska don’t commit defensive suicide and don’t have any of their rash players sent off!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Jaro Pietarsaari vs VPS Vaasa – home win at 7/5.
It’s derby day in south-west Finland and this should be a tight one. VPS are not an easy side to break down, after all. However, Jaro are one of the form sides in the Veikkausliiga right now and they’re playing good football to boot. The addition of Jonke in attack was a stroke of genius from Eremenko as he’s revolutionised their attack with his partnership alongside Niang. Jaro look much fresher and they attack with much more purpose than they used to earlier in the season. Ironically, VPS have lost their attacking power ahead of this game with star striker Morrissey ruled out for a while through illness. This affects VPS’ ability to score goals, create goals, and even counter-attack properly. The news that Strandvall may return today will at least give VPS fans something to smile about but there’s not much else going their way right now. Koskimaa and Bjork are still out, which are still problems, despite VPS not really showing it so far this season. Jaro are at full-strength barring the missing Wargh and they should have enough to overcome their local rivals today with their firepower and their passing game. VPS are a threat on the counter-attack but I struggle to see who’ll score their goals, even against a leaky Jaro defence. For me, there’s value on the Jaro win at 7/5, even in a derby.
Verdict: Jaro Pietarsaari to win at 7/5.
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs KR Reykjavik – over 3.5 goals at 11/10.
The value has to be on Stjarnan here, doesn’t it? They’re prolific goalscorers and they’re entertaining a side that lost 7-0 earlier this week on foreign soil so morale must be low. I mean, how do they even pick themselves up for the return leg in a few days time? What a horrible feeling that must actually be!
KR have been a model of composure this season, striking fear into Urvalsdeild defences everywhere with their ruthless finishing and incisive passing. They’ve looked everything that they never used to be and I’ve enjoyed that about this time around. However, I’ve no idea how that result is going to hit them. It must have done some damage and Gardabaer is no place to go without having 100% focus. Stjarnan will attack from start to finish and they will score goals. If KR aren’t ready for that, which it looks like they won’t be, then they’re going to lose this game. They have to their chances here and if they do against an awful Stjarnan defence then there’s a good chance that they’ll actually win the game as they’re definitely the better side. There are too many variants here to bet on a winner in this game without watching it, however.
I do see value in goals, though. Stjarnan always have high-scoring games unless they’re facing one of the better-organised defensive sides. KR are goalscorers, though, and so are Stjarnan. I doubt that this game will open up properly for a while so you may get good odds on goals in-play. However, make no mistake here – I thoroughly expect goals in a game involving two sides with strong attacks so taking over 3.5 goals looks a good bet at 11/10.
Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 11/10.
Team news
Brazilian Serie A:
Sport Recife – Willian Rocha is absent. Cicinho should return.
Atletico Mineiro – Richarlyson is a doubt. Neto Berola and Andre are absent. Jo and Serginho return.
Vasco da Gama – Tenorio, Rodolfo, and Renato Silva are absent. Eduardo Costa is a doubt. Felipe returns. Eder Luis and Felipe Bastos will feature.
Santos – Neymar, Ganso, Rafael, Fucile, Bernardo, Edu Dracena, Pedro Castro, and Galhardo are absent. Juan returns.
Corinthians – Martinez, Alex, and Guerrero are absent.
Portuguesa – Rogerio and Leandro Silva are absent. Leo Silva returns. Ananias is a doubt.
Danish Superligaen:
Midtylland – Nworuh is a doubt.
FC Nordsjaelland – Bechmann is absent. Mtiliga returns.
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Nomme Kalju – Neemelo is absent.
Flora Tallinn – Aksalu and Kams are absent.
Flora Paide – Tubarik is absent.
Tammeka – Captain Valtna has left. Manager Tiirik has been sacked and replaced with Joti Stamatopoulos.
Trans Narva – Malkov has been sent away. Prikhodko may debutise.
Sillamae Kalev – Nesterovski is absent.
Viljandi – No news.
Kuressaare – No news.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HJK Helsinki – Zeneli is absent. Pohjanpalo is a doubt. Sadik may return.
Haka Valkeakoski – Pesonen, Dema, Metzger, Mattila, and Kastrati are absent. Both Matrones are doubts. Puustinen has left.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Wargh is absent. Skrabb returns.
VPS Vaasa – Morrissey, Koskimaa, Bjork, and Luokkala are absent. Strandvall and Abdulahi are doubts.
Finnish Ykkonen:
RoPS Rovaniemi – Muinonen may feature.
Jippo Joensuu – M.Ikonen, Ekroos, Korpela, Gruda, Sormunen, Hallikainen, L.Ikonen, and Koko’o are absent.
Viikingit Helsinki – Gonzales is absent.
Hameenlinna – Makela is absent. Vanderlei, Kalervo, and Mononen return.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
GIF Sundsvall – No news.
Mjallby Solvesborg – Fejzullahu is absent.