TFT Issue 464!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
I don’t know if it’s chance or me being in a bad mood but I simply can’t find value today, barring the below game. I would advise caution for today’s games as the majority involve sides that are either tired mid-season due to fixture congestion, tired from European committments due to fixture congestion, or just starting their respective campaigns. Don’t forget the affect that the Olympics and Ramadan can have on lots of players/clubs.
Featured game
Gefle vs Malmo FF – away win at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan game between Gefle and Malmo.
Gefle play well on their artificial turf and have recorded some daunting results lately with an unprecedented 5-0 drubbing of IFK Goteborg leading them into this game. To be honest, the sides that have won at Gefle this season have had a tough job to do so and that’s no more than what I’d expect from Gefle. They’re seasoned campaigners in Sweden; they know how important their home games are as they try to beat the drop. They’re a physical and well-organised side and although they lack firepower on a grandiose scale and quality in a damaging way, they’re not a side to ever underestimate at home. I’ve seldom seen any side have an easy game here and I’m not expecting that to change today.
I feel a bit sorry for Gefle because with some firepower and depth, they could quite easily be at the level that AIK are at, for example. I rate Gefle’s defensive structure and tenacity as highly as that. However, look at their attack – their best striker is Dahlberg and he’s being outdone by Orlov, which is just a joke. Gefle live off the scraps that Djurgarden throw them and that’s no way to go about things. I appreciate that it’s hard for Gefle to generate income etc. but they need to try something new as far as attackers go; see if they can find the next Gerndt.
Malmo are an unstable ship in terms of reliability. Watch them away from home and you’ll be terrified at the opportunities that they give away on a far too regular basis. However, this side possesses the strongest attack in the country, for my money, which is precisely why I’m giving them the nod here. They battered GAIS Goteborg earlier this week, for my money, but the result didn’t come close to showing that thanks to stupid mistakes.
Malmo lost Durmaz to Gaziantepspor recently and although that will damage them in the title run, I don’t expect it to do much short-term damage because Malmo have loads of quality in-depth. In Ranegie and Larsson, they have two quick and strong forwards that won’t just rest on their laurels in games. Indeed, you have to wonder if the two of them are too similar at times as Malmo’s attacks sometimes would do with a bit of a “Plan B” as far as their strikers go. Still, Hamad and Wilton can make anything happen as they wish and that’s a strong weapon of Malmo’s. Elfsborg are hit-and-miss right now, Helsingborg and AIK are not consistent, and IFK Goteborg are at the wrong end of the table so Malmo have to be feeling pretty confident right now.
As far as head-to-head records go, Malmo are one of the few sides that do know how to win at Gefle. They’ve won three out of their last four visits here because they know how to find the net and they know that Gefle can’t match them on that front. If Malmo score the first goal and don’t capitulate within ten minutes then it becomes an open game and Malmo will annihlate them. Well, whenever it is that Gefle pluck the courage up to actually attack them. Malmo have conceded more away goals than any other Allsvenskan side this season so you do need to apply a bit of common sense here in the respect that you shouldn’t go all-in here.
However, I do like this one a lot, probably more than I should, know what a pain in the arse Gefle can be at home. Why? Goals, basically. Malmo have scored in all but one away game this season. Gefle have only managed to avoid defeat in two out of the five home games that they’ve conceded in this season and both of those two sides (Orebro and Syrianska Sodertalje respectively) are in the relegation battle with them, coincidentally. Note that all Gefle’s strong results come when they don’t concede. If they don’t concede here then they’ve done very well, in my view, as I cannot see this game ending without Malmo scoring. Malmo will undoubtedly try to let Gefle back into the game but the fact is that if Malmo score twice then this should be three points in the bag for them. With the above in mind, I really have to look on the away win at 5/6 as a steal because I cannot see Gefle being able to match Malmo’s goal-threat, nor being able to outplay them in general.
Verdict: Malmo FF to win at 5/6.
Thoughts
As pre-match betting holds little value today, I’ve decided to share some thoughts for in-play betting with you guys:
Internacional are still missing most of their attacking talent (although Forlan debutises today) but are still scoring goals a-plenty to impress their new manager. Vasco are scoring goals for fun, too. It seems logical to expect goals. I would advise watching it in-play here, though – if Inter aren’t firing then this game won’t go over 2.5 goals.
Coritiba vs Gremio looks another good one for overs, to be honest. Coritiba and overs are always a good combination anyway, really. Gremio aren’t an overs side, really, but they’ve looked terrific since Elano started to carry the team and they’re scoring goals for fun. I fear for Coritiba following their run of late, though, and can’t escape the feeling that it’ll end 0-1 instead of going overs like it should. That’s why you’d need to watch this one, really – if Coritiba show up then 2-1 or 2-2 is possible. If they don’t, then 0-1 or 0-2 looks likely to me.
Unders in the Prague derby between Dukla and Sparta are short, as you’d expect. I’d wait until the first goal goes in and then hammer unders again, though. Dukla hate Sparta with a passion beyond the level of most rivalries and will do anything to prevent a Sparta win here. Sparta are nowhere near as strong as they used to be and games like this are very hard for them nowadays as a result. If Sparta do win this – which they should, as they’re the better side – then it should be by a narrow scoreline, especially with a lack of match practice taken into account.
I love the idea of taking Nomme Kalju to beat the -1 AH against Sillamae Kalev but there are no odds out yet. I’d want 4/5 before jumping but there’s a huge, huge quality gap between those two sides nowadays. Sillamae Kalev have internal problems whereas Nomme Kalju are very strong in all areas. The continued absence of Neemelo does hamper the Nomme Kalju attack, though – don’t take the European Handicap here with that in mind. Despite the Russia-Estonia rivalry, this should be a fairly straightforward away win today for Nomme Kalju, in my view.
A lot will no doubt have their eyes on Honka vs HJK in Finland. I can’t think of many games that I’d rather not bet on today than that, though. What to expect? HJK are the better side but are hit-and-miss right now. Honka have been playing good football and hate HJK for perpetually poaching their players. Could be 2-1, could be 1-1, could be 0-3. Depends who shows up, really. HJK have the match-winners but Honka have the energy and pace. Horrible game to bet on at the moment, especially with HJK having just got back from Iceland.
The Ykkonen today looks awful, too. Never go against HiFK in a derby game, for starters – big mistake, unless there are special reasons behind it. RoPS are better than SJK but so what – RoPS are better than Jippo too but failed to beat them at home lately too. SJK at least have firepower, which is what Jippo generally don’t have. PK-35 are better than OPS Oulu but again, when have they shown it with any kind of convincing display in recent times? I like goals in all of these games; the trouble is that they could all very easily go under too. Stay away!
Lillestrom looked good against Rosenborg lately but to be honest, that didn’t take much; I’m pretty sure I’d have given them a good game as they were very laid back and uninterested. Lillestrom have no fear, though, and I admire that. They attack with passion and conviction and that makes them hard to play against. They’re awful in defence, though – they will concede goals against sides that want to attack them. Molde might have just come back from Latvia and tiredness could be a factor as a result but they’re a lot stronger going forward than their hosts. Molde don’t travel well, though, so it’s hard to encourage the away win here. However, there should be at least three or four goals in this game so it’s one to watch and in-play for good odds.
Team news
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Kortrijk – Messouidi, Monrose, Veselinovic, and Chavarria have left. Dupuis and Matton may debutise. Oussalah, Ragolie, and N’Diaye are absent.
Anderlecht – Suarez has left. Cyriac and Praet are absent.
Club Brugge – Jorgensen, Tchite, Trickovski, and J.Larsen may debutise. Hoefkens is absent.
Waasland-Beveren – Radzinkski has left. Vermeylen, Zennaro, Didier, Cruz, Rowell, and D’Ulivo are absent.
Germinal Beerschot – New boss Koster. No absentees.
Lokeren – Maric may debutise.
Mechelen – Gorius has left. Destorme and Van Damme are absent.
Charleroi – Gueye has left.
Mons – Perbet is a doubt due to internal conflict.
OH Leuven – No news.
Brazilian Serie A:
Internacional – Datolo, Damiao, Kleber, Nei, and Otavinho are absent. Dagoberto is a doubt. Oscar has left. Forlan will debutise. Guinazu returns.
Vasco da Gama – Juninho, Nilton, Eduardo Costa, Tenorio, and Rodolfo are absent. Wendel is a doubt.
Coritiba – Junior Urso, Marcel, Keirrison, Jackson, Eltinho, Cleiton, Rafinha, and Anderson Aquino are absent. Ayrton is a doubt. Emerson returns.
Gremio – Fabio Aurelio, Kleber, Julio Cesar, Souza, and Leandro are absent.
Botafogo – Lucas Zen, Antonio Carlos, Mattos, and Cidinho are absent.
Figueirense – Abreu, Caio, Julio Cesar, Heber, Franco Niell, Joao Paulo, Toro and Wilson are absent. Fred returns.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Dinamo Zagreb – Peko, Sammir, Tonel, and Badelj are absent. Kovacic is a doubt. Simunic returns.
Cibalia Vinkovci – Juric and Matos are absent. Manager quit yesterday; Assistant Manager will be in charge for this game.
Danish Superligaen:
FC Copenhagen – Claudemir and Delaney are absent. N’Doye has left.
Aalborg BK – Bogelund, Thomsen, and Kayke are absent.
Esbjerg – Demba Nyren returns. Rieks has left.
SonderjyskE – Hart may debutise.
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Sillamae Kalev – Ivanov has left.
Nomme Kalju – Zomerski and Takeda have left. Neemelo is absent.
Trans Narva – Kitto and Abramenko are absent.
Viljandi – No absentees.
Tammeka – Tutk and Haljak are absent.
Tallinna Kalev – No news.
Russian Premier League:
Zenit St.Petersburg – Danny is absent.
Dinamo Moscow – No absentees.
Amkar Perm’ – Volkov is absent.
CSKA Moscow – Necid and Rahimic are absent.
Lokomotiv Moscow – Tarasov, Guilherme, and Ozdoyev are absent.
Krylya Sovetov Samara – Taranov and Kontsedalov are absent.