TFT Issue 465!
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Thoughts – Olympics
A lot of odds on the Olympics look uninteresting today. For instance, Egypt are way too short to beat New Zealand. I admire the fight in the Egyptian players and they never gave up against Brazil, even despite overwhelming odds being stacked against them. However, I find the prospect of them being as motivated against New Zealand as they were against Brazil unlikely at best. They’ll be tired due to the draining game and the Ramadan festival that’s taking place right now. They may have a better side than New Zealand but there’s not much in it for my money so it’s worth avoiding this one. Brazil beating the handicap against Belarus is likely but Belarus are going to park the bus and chances are that they’ll do it a lot better than Egypt as that’s what Belarus specialise in so I don’t see any value there. GB were lacking in innovation against Senegal and I find it hard to see why they’re so short against a UAE side that did very well against Uruguay. GB should win the game but those odds are a joke. Spain should really better Honduras but Honduras showed that they know how to find the net against Morocco and Spain looked surprisingly predictable against Japan so this could be a tighter scoreline than the odds suggest. Japan should beat Morocco if they play as well in that game as they did against Spain but will they have the energy? They worked really hard against Spain and may not be at 100% here. Mexico worked hard to better South Korea but struggled to break them down due to the resilience of the South Koreans. Mexico will have an easier time breaking through the Gabon defence but they face a more physical side so I don’t see any value in taking them to win the game. South Korea should give Switzerland a good game if their excellent display against Mexico is anything to go by but they looked shattered toward the end of the game with Mexico so will they have the energy here? I rate the Swiss highly although they weren’t great against Gabon in their last game. I think this will be a tight game and I can’t bring myself to endorse any kind of betting on this game.
Featured game
Nordsjaelland vs OB Odense – home win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Superligaen game between Nordsjaelland and OB Odense.
Nordsjaelland are the reigning champions following their unprecedented success over FC Copenhagen last season. They’ve made one significant loss since then in defender Bjelland but managed to keep hold of the rest of their squad, which was impressive. The recent sale of Mikkelsen isn’t ideal but he’s not as vital to the team as Bjelland is, in my view. Nordsjaelland play good attacking football and they’re genuinely a pleasure to watch. Nordstrand’s return bolsters their attack although I must confess that I’d love to see them sign a top striker to make them a definite contender again. Nonetheless, this is a very good side with plenty of attacking power and they’re more than capable of winning this game on their new artificial turf.
Visitors OB Odense are a shell compared to what they used to be. Almost all of their good players have departed, which leaves OB Odense with a unified but limited side. Some have expressed relief that the likes of Mendy and Djemba-Djemba have moved on as it allows the club to return to its battling ways with players that are proud to wear that white and blue shirts. However, some have pointed out that it has made OB Odense take a backward step quality-wise and to be honest, both are correct. I mean, Rurik Gislason has a few tricks in his locker and plenty of pace to boot. Morten Skoubo knows how to find the net – if it’s put on a plate for him – and old Johansson in midfield is a clever player. However, these are more efficient players than inspirational players. This kind of squad has been put together to endure the Superligaen rather than dominate it and the recent OB Odense displays confirm that. This side is well-equipped when it comes to avoiding relegation, which very nearly came about last season, so I commend them for abandoning their previous plans in favour of securing their status. However, their approach does mean that games like this are an uphill struggle and I’ll be very surprised to see them cope.
For me, Nordsjaelland are too good to do anything but win this game. OB Odense are a lot better placed to frustrate sides than they were last season but their attack is somewhat predictable. Therefore, I have to consider odds of 4/5 on a Nordsjaelland win as a good value bet today.
Verdict: Nordsjaelland to win at 4/5.
Additional games
Senegal U23 vs Uruguay U23 – Uruguay U23 to win at 4/5.
Although Uruguay were far from impressive in their game against UAE last time out, they still demonstrated their ruthless efficiency by winning the game. I mean, Luis Suarez was quite possibly the worst player on the park as he struggled to cope with the relentless boos he received from the Old Trafford faithful with his passing and movement a complete mess. However, the talented striker made both goals that Uruguay scored so if that’s a bad game for him, you don’t need me to tell you what a good game will produce. The fact is that Uruguay have lots of dangerous attacking players and on the occasion that they chose to show it, they tend to win. They only controlled a short period of their previous game but still scored two goals. Senegal were robust and dogged against Great Britain in their last game but demonstrated a lack of finesse and composure in the final third. They were physically strong and aggressive in their challenges; if they do that here then there will be red cards as the Uruguayans will not like that approach. However, Uruguay have the quality to win this game and if they ride the tough challenges then they really should win this one. For me, there’s value on Uruguay winning at 4/5.
Verdict: Uruguay U23 to win at 4/5.
Standard de Liege vs Zulte-Waregem – both sides to score at 5/6.
With Dury back at the helm for a second stint, Zulte-Waregem should be able to begin recapturing their form of a few years ago. Dury inspired them to a strong end to last season and I expect them to start this season well as a result. Zulte-Waregem have looked good in their pre-season friendlies, winning the majority of them, and have suffered few pre-season losses with only French forward Chevalier having departed for RKC Waalwijk. Still, big Habibou has remained and should be getting back to his best under Dury. Dury brought in Croatian forward Lendric from Hajduk Split to replace Chevalier so we’ll have to see how he does. Either way, I rate Zulte-Waregem highly under Dury, especially with Berrier back pulling the strings in the middle of the park. I can’t think of anyone who will try harder than Berrier today either, as he left Zulte-Waregem for Standard de Liege a year or so ago and returned following an unsuccessful spell there. Standard de Liege may be expected to win this game but this will be a hard game for them, in my view. They usually struggle with Zulte-Waregem and you won’t find a Zulte-Waregem side more capable of causing them problems – well, perhaps Hyland randomly returning might make them even stronger – so I expect a good game. Standard’s attack is not recognisable from the side that ended last season with Cyriac and Tchite both leaving and Gakpe’s loan deal coming to an end. Youngster Batshuayi has remained but Standard needed to spend big as he’s not enough alone and thus that’s precisely what Standard did. They’ve brought Ogunjimi back from his unsuccessful stint in Spain and have also signed Israeli forward Biton. Swedish midfielder Ajdarevic has also joined their ranks and his set pieces are always dangerous. Seijas is growing in stature as time goes by and he’ll always be a potent threat. Therefore, Standard do have attacking power in their ranks, irrespective of the fact that some of their players haven’t played together before and will need to gel. Surprisingly enough, goalkeeper Bolat stayed with Standard, which was a massive boost. However, Brazilian defender Felipe left the club and that leaves a big hole in what was a very solid Standard defence last season. New boss Jans reacted by moving Van Damme to central defnece but it’s still not ideal. Standard’s old squad has been given a real makeover and it’ll be interesting to see how they cope. They should have enough to win but this is a harder game than it looks. I’d hate to bet on the 1×2 market here but taking both sides to score looks a good bet to me at 5/6.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Randers vs AGF Aarhus – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
One word should surmise this game; droll. Randers were excellent in Division 1 last season but lack the quality to do anything in the Superligaen this time around. There’s a very good reason that they’re one of the heavy favourites to go back down and it’s a lack of quality in their squad. They’ll work hard for the first part of the season as all new clubs do but they lack players in every area. Davies was a good acquisition; he’s very quick and has a good record in Scandinavia. Kristensen is very experienced too but his age is getting the better of him. Ex-Brondby winger Kamper is another threat but there’s so little to talk of with this Randers side. They’re simply not good enough to survive this season, in my view. I would take AGF Aarhus to win the game but they’ve just come back from a long and disappointing trip to Georgia and will unquestionably be tired here. They also miss key attacker Berg, who will be devastated at missing the game against his old club. Graulund and Larsen can still cause problems but it’s not AGF’s style to attack on the road. They’re a defensive-minded and physical side and I don’t expect them to risk much here.
For me, this game has under 2.5 goals all over it and I’m happy to take it at 4/5.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
JJK Jyvaskyla vs TPS Turku – away win at 6/5.
JJK have just returned from a disappointing trip to Montenegro where they crashed out of the UEFA Europa League on away goals to Zeta Golubovci. They’re tired and short on numbers, though. They score goals for fun with their starting eleven but there’s little room for rotation, perhaps barring their excellent midfield. This is JJK’s fourth game in ten days and they simply don’t have the squad to deal with that. Their spirit is unquestionable but they cannot defend and should have lost against IFK Mariehamn in their last Veikkausliiga game because of that factor. Well, that and tiredness! If they defend like that here then TPS will rip them apart. TPS have had a nice long rest ahead of their trip to Jyvaskyla and have won three consecutive games ahead of this one, scoring nine goals along the way. For me, in-form TPS Turku are well worth taking to win at JJK today whilst at generous odds of 6/5, especially as JJK should be too tired to last the distance.
Verdict: TPS Turku to win at 6/5.
Tromso vs Rosenborg BK – home win at 11/10.
Speaking of distance, if you get time then check how far Rosenborg have travelled this week! Not only have they had to go to Kazakhstan and return but now they face the daunting trip north into the Arctic Circle to take on Tromso on their artificial turf at the Alfheim. There simply aren’t harder games than that in the Eliteserien, in my view. Tromso had a mid-week game themselves but they didn’t have to travel, unlike their opponents. The negative aspect of Tromso is that they did have to play extra-time mid-week. However, Rosenborg played with ten men in Kazakhstan and had to wait for a last-gasp winner to secure progression to the next round. They’re going to be shattered and aside from that, I simply don’t rate this current Rosenborg side at all. Tromso are enthusiastic and as long as they feed Ondrasek then they’ll score goals here. The absence of Senegalese duo Ciss and Mbodji does damage their defence and their aerial threat from set pieces. However, Tromso are good enough to damage Rosenborg here, especially with Andersen in great form and I fancy them to beat Rosenborg at 11/10 with the above in mind.
Verdict: Tromso to win at 11/10.
Mjallby Solvesborg vs AIK Solna – away win with draw no bet at evens.
You won’t often find me siding with AIK Solna but with draw no bet cover at evens, I really fancy them to do well here. Mjallby have not only lost El-Kabir, who opted to sign for another club, but they’re also on course to lose Fejzullahu and Kivuvu, both of which have their loan deals coming to an end. Mjallby’s slow defence has looked vulnerable of late and their attack is struggling. The Allsvenskan season is proving to be a long one for Mjallby and as much as I admire them, the team that they have is gradually falling apart. AIK are in trouble if they underestimate them but to be honest, AIK don’t underestimate anyone; they’re the most cautious side in Sweden. AIK are very defensive and they’re bloody good at it too. They’ve just come back from a successful trip to Iceland where they secured progression to the next stage of the UEFA Europa League with a convincing 0-1 win over FH Hafnarfjordur. Spirits should be high and AIK are solid enough tactically to get their quicker players against Mjallby’s slow defenders and to utlimately capitalise. As long as AIK are sensible and play with their usual composure then I don’t see them losing here. For me, there’s value taking AIK to win with draw no bet at evens.
Verdict: AIK Solna to win with draw no bet at evens.
Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall – away win with draw no bet at 17/10.
Today’s long but appealing shot is GIF to win at Kalmar. Kalmar weren’t very good against Osijek earlier this week, in my view, despite the very convincing scoreline. Osijek gave them a good game but made some ridiculous errors and have paid the price for it. This is Kalmar’s fourth game in ten days and tiredness is starting to creep into this team. They’re not especially good either, in my opinion. They just lack the consistency and firepower to trouble opponents. I expect Kalmar to really struggle with the pacey counter-attacks of GIF Sundsvall and with their visitors being much fresher following a week’s rest, I really think that GIF can trouble Kalmar today. GIF play much better football than they’re given credit for, especially away from home, and Kalmar are often overrated by the bookies because they used to have a good squad. GIF are very astute tactically and not many sides have beaten them this season, especially when GIF are the away side. They’re the ideal surprise package and with Holster and Skulason dominating midfield whilst brute Eklund and Dibba do the damage up front, I really rate the Allsvenskan minnows. For me, there’s potentially a lot of value in taking the away win with draw no bet at 17/10.
Verdict: GIF Sundsvall to win with draw no bet at 17/10.
Djurgarden vs Elfsborg Boras – over 2.5 goals at evens.
And last but not least, we head to Stockholm where the intriguing Djurgarden host high-flying Elfsborg Boras. Despite Djurgarden’s obssession with drawing 1-1 with everyone, they’re actually a very capable attacking side and a very poor defensive side. Key defender Pedersen is still absent and that isn’t doing them any favours. Still, attacking is Djurgarden’s speciality and with Hamalainen, Chibsah, and Sjolund patrolling the midfield, they’re certainly a dangerous side to deal with, especially with Rajalakso returning to fitness in time for today’s game. Ricardo Santos is a threat in attack but the main strength of Djurgarden’s this season has been that of striker Keene, who was brought in from Elfsborg and will no doubt be very motivated to do well today. Djurgarden possess a lot of pace and they always turn it on in the big games. All of their home games with big sides this season have gone over 2.5 goals, one way or another, and I expect this one to go the same way.
Elfsborg enter this game on the back of a win earlier this week in the UEFA Europa League so they’ll be feeling pleased with themselves. They’ve played a lot of games lately but they’ve got depth and can rotate players. They were at home earlier this week so they’ve not had to do much travelling at all. However, Elfsborg don’t like playing on natural turf and that will favour Djurgarden here. That said, Elfsborg are a very complete side, much moreso than Djurgarden, and that gives them an edge here. Elfsborg are strong tactically and possess lethal counter-attacking weapons so they should be able to do well against a poor Djurgarden defence. Still, Elfsborg have been far from strong in recent weeks with their form flaky at best. They’ve conceded silly goals, which isn’t like them. They don’t tend to play the best football in their games but they tend to take their chances better than other Swedish sides and then ride the game out. If they concede goals then that plan is put into jeopardy, hence their predicament. If they play unconvincingly here than I fully believe that Djurgarden will beat them.
Still, I would hate to pick a winner here. These are two sides make for an interesting game as they’re different in their approaches and abilities. I would perhaps lean toward Djurgarden with draw no bet if forced but to be honest, I see far more value in taking over 2.5 goals at evens just in case Elfsborg turn it on and win by a high scoreline.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Team news
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege – Ron Jans’ first game as manager. Tchite, Felipe, Bjarnason, and Cyriac left pre-season. Biton, Ajdarevic, Bulot, Kawashima, Verbeek, and Ogunjimi may debutise.
Brazilian Serie A:
Bahia – Ciro, Souza, Coelho, Jeferson, Elias, Gabriel, and Lulinha are absent. Mancini is a doubt. Gerley returns.
Corinthians – Chicao and Martinez are absent. Douglas returns.
Fluminense – Edinho, Anderson, and Bruno Vieira are absent. Valencia and Diguinho are doubts. Jean, Carlinhos, and Deco return.
Atletico Mineiro – Neto Berola and Triguinho are absent. Leandro Donizete returns.
Sao Paulo – Uvini, Lucas Moura, Douglas, Osvaldo, Casemiro, Wellington, Canete, and Fabricio are absent. Luis Fabiano, Joao Filipe, and Ceni return.
Flamengo – Caceres, Deivid, Muralha, and Maldonado are absent.
Sport Recife – Willian Rocha is absent.
Atletico Goianiense – Pituca, Bida, Eron, Leonardo, Felipe Brisola, and Adriano Pimenta are absent.
Cruzeiro – Sandro Silva, Leo, and Alex Silva are absent. Charles returns. Ceara, Mateus, and Rafael Donato are doubts.
Palmeiras – Juninho, Luan, Valdivia, Mauricio Ramos, Thiago Heleno, and Wesley are absent. Marcos Assuncao is a doubt. Cicinho returns.
Portuguesa – Leandro Silva is absent.
Nautico – Jean Rolt, Cascata, Rogerio, Alessandro, and Patric are absent. Marcio Rosario has been released.
Santos – Neymar, Ganso, Rafael, Galhardo, Fucile, Edu Dracena are absent. Bernardo may return.
Ponte Preta – Edson Bastros, Ferron, Bruno Nunes, and Wescley are absent. Roger and Cicinho return.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hajduk Split – Trebotic is a doubt.
Split – Paracki may debutise. Krizanac is a doubt.
Slaven Koprivnica – Vrucina has left. Gregurina is absent. Glavica returns. Rested a lot of players for their trip to Northern Ireland lately.
Istra 1961 – Sharbini is a doubt. Andelkovic, Pamic, and Jelic are absent.
Osijek – Kvrzic is absent.
NK Zagreb – Jurendic is absent.
Danish Superligaen:
Nordsjaelland – Bechmann and Parkhurst return. Anders Christensen may debutise.
OB Odense – No absentees.
Randers – Bjarnason and Feldballe are absent.
AGF Aarhus – Berg is absent. Pasanen may debutise.
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Start Kristiansand – Hoff and Kristjansson are absent. Madsen is a doubt.
Bryne – Risholt is absent. Midtsian, Nyborg, Ertzeid, and Moster are doubts.
Bodo Glimt – Nordberg and Stensland are absent. Johansen is a doubt.
Mjondalen – Idris is absent. Granas and Boldt are doubts.
Kongsvinger – Haestad and Fazlagic are absent. Ryen, Solum, and Dosso are doubts.
Ullensaker/Kisa – Andresen is absent. Dos Santos is a doubt.
Notodden – Alsaker is absent. Dahle, Shala, and Bjerke are doubts.
Alta – Nome is absent. Rolandsen, Erlandsen, Ngom, and Gauseth are doubts.
Ranheim – Reginiussen is absent.
Baerum – Findstad, Shaswari, and Lundemo are absent.
Sandefjord – Royrane, Gabrielsen, Bindia, and Dokken are absent. Amankwah returns.
Hodd – Kleppe and Grimstad are doubts.
Sarpsborg 08 – Ron is a doubt.
Hamarkamaratene – No news.
Strommen – Van der Burgt is absent. Nilsen and Rasch are doubts
Tromsdalen – Johansen is absent. Waage and Bertheussen may return.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Djurgarden – Rajalakso may return. Hoie is absent. Youssef has left on loan.
Elfsborg Boras – Rohden, Jawo, and Jorgensen are absent.