TFT Issue 467!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Dynamo Kiev vs Feyenoord Rotterdam – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Ukraine between Dynamo Kiev and Feyenoord Rotterdam.
Dynamo Kiev are a very experienced side in European football nowadays, much moreso than their opponents, in fact. However, I think the odds on them winning this game are a joke and I’ll explain why.
Ukraine is a notoriously hard country to go and play football in. Ask any side that’s gone to play Vorskla in Poltava if they enjoyed the bog of a pitch or any side that tried to play an open game against Shakhtar on the bowling green at the Donbass Arena. Dynamo Kiev are no exception to that rule so I can understand them being favourites, at least.
However, Dynamo Kiev are nowhere near the side that they used to be. Yes, they’ve got the money to invest and they’ve made some very impressive Summer signings with Marco Ruben, Miguel Veloso, and Niko Kranjcar amongst the horde that arrived. Let’s not forget that those new players need to gel, first and foremost, and a couple of domestic games isn’t enough for them to suddenly deliver magical displays.
Secondly, Shevchenko has hung his boots up in favour of a career in politics, which is…interesting. Most people said he was too old and other such ridiculous shit but they forget that he was the one that carried Dynamo Kiev last season. He wasn’t as mobile as he used to be for obvious reasons but his movement, finesse, and composure is unmatched in the Dynamo Kiev side, both before and after he left the club back in the late 90’s. I think Brown showed outstanding promise last season and has done so far this season and Yarmolenko is always a threat with his pace and trickery. However, neither are proper strikers and I think Dynamo will miss Shevchenko for that reason with Milevskiy only choosing to live up to his personal hype when it suits him. Dynamo’s front three are a handful, nonetheless, and I’m sure that they’ll have fun with Feyenoord’s ever-unstable defence.
However, I would point out that Dynamo’s defence absolutely loathe playing against pace. They’re extremely good in the Ukraine for keeping clean sheets because most Ukrainian clubs attack the same way – set pieces and via long balls. Dynamo are not short of big and strong defenders; let’s put it that way. However, they are short of pacey and intelligent defenders, in my view, so either sides that have quick attacking players or are very strong tactically tend to fare well against them.
Lastly, unless Dynamo change their playing style here, they’re going to be in for a rude awakening. Dynamo play a slow passing game through the centre of the park due to a lack of width in their squad, which primarily comes from them not having wingers. They deploy a 4-3-3 formation usually and drop their pacier attackers to the flanks which doesn’t often work on the continent because they’re not what I would call proper wingers. Solid defensive sides don’t have many problems keeping Dynamo out nowadays although Feyenoord undoubtedly will because they just don’t defend. However, Dynamo aren’t great at keeping or retaining the ball and that’s a big problem against a side that keeps it well ala Feyenoord.
Therefore, I give Feyenoord the advantage here. They have an abundance of attacking players with plenty of flair, pace, and most of all – confidence. They’ve lost star striker Guidetti since last season as he’s gone back to England to play for Manchester City. They’ve also lost important midfield duo Bakkal (Dinamo Moscow) and El-Ahmadi (Aston Villa), both of which aren’t easy to replace. However, don’t overlook the way that Feyenoord operate nowadays; the way they’ve operated for years, in fact. They’re a selling club, much like Arsenal, who play great attacking football and never have any problems replacing the players that have left. Feyenoord make their profits and trust their academy boys and you know something? It rarely lets them down.
Feyenoord still have Clasie in midfield, who is excellent, and they’ve managed to loan Elabdellaoui from Manchester City (who looks very strong) and they’ve signed promising Norwegian youngster Singh to boot. They’ve brought in another youngster, poaching Te Vrede from feeder club Excelsior Rotterdam, and have signed a few other players for nominal fees/on free transfers that will bolster the quality and depth of their squad. Feyenoord have made intelligent signings, basically, without paying much money at all. For example, they’ve snared Immers from ADO Den Haag, who has been instrumental in their midfield for some years. They’ve brought in tricky wide man Goossens from NEC, who came through the Ajax academy, if I remember rightly. Heerenveen’s regular defender Janmaat joined Feyenoord too, as did Roda JC midfielder Vormer. These players have cost Feyenoord next to nothing and yet are good signings because they’re all experience, all of them have been important parts of their respective teams, and all of them add something to this squad. I admire the way Feyenoord do things and I think Koeman is the perfect man to let them play as they wish and to help nurture their youngsters, too.
My sole concern for Feyenoord is that they are a very young side. You know, if they start this game badly, shipping two goals in ten minutes, then they’ll be all over the place and most likely won’t recover. However, as a football side, they’re simply better than Dynamo Kiev and bring a greater attacking threat than their hosts too, for my money. Cisse, Fernandez, Cabral – they’re not household names but they’re good, hard-working players and they’re not easy to play against. I respect this Feyenoord side more than I do Dynamo Kiev because Feyenoord always deliver their game whereas Dynamo Kiev often aren’t able to if their opponents are strong enough to stop them.
This should be a fascinating game, all in all. I find it very hard to understand why Dynamo Kiev are such heavy favourites against a side that scores goals more easily than they do but I guess time will tell if the bookies are right today. I think Feyenoord will make life very hard for Dynamo Kiev here, irrespective of their lack of competitive games. I expect Feyenoord to enjoy the lion’s share of possession and to create more chances too. As long as they take those chances then I would not only bet on Feyenoord not losing here but maybe even a cheeky bet on them winning. The value for me is in giving Feyenoord a +1 Asian Handicap at 5/6, though – I can only see it losing if they deliver a very naive display here.
Verdict: Feyenoord Rotterdam to win with +1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Thoughts
I can’t tell you how close I was to taking unders in Motherwell vs Panathinaikos! It’s a shame that the odds are so short, really. An overrated, unfamiliar, and lazy Panathinaikos side are 4/5 to beat a solid, dependable, and hard-working Motherwell side on the marsh that is Fir Park? You have got to be kidding me! I respect Panathinaikos’ history but they’ve not been a good side for some years now. They have more experience and more match-winners than Motherwell but so what? Motherwell are not easy to beat, especially not in Scotland, so I would be very wary here. Maybe you’ll get lucky and see and early goal in this one so that the odds on under 2.5 goals becomes interesting. At the moment it’s not but laying Panathinaikos and taking a cheeky punt on a 0-0 scoreline definitely appeal to me unless it’s one of those rare Panathinaikos games where they turn it on.
Team news
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:
Motherwell – Saunders is absent. Page is a doubt.
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Trans Narva – Abramenko and Kitto return. Ivanov may feature. Kazura may debutise.
Viljandi – Sinilaid is absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Goteborg – Lund, Jonsson, and Larsson are absent. Waehler, Soder, Dyrestam, Sobralense, and Allansson are doubts.
Syrianska Sodertalje – Miller is absent.