TFT Issue 474!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Keflavik – over 3 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Icelandic Urvalsdeild game between Stjarnan Gardabaer and Keflavik.
Stjarnan are one of my favourite sides in Iceland as they adore scoring goals. Forget defending; they don’t know how to and they are in no rush to learn. However, when it comes to pressurising opponents, attacking with conviction, and scoring goals, they’re one of the top sides in the country. It’s a bit ironic because they’re not even a top side in Iceland. Quality-wise, they’re light years behind KR Reykjavik and FH Hafnarfjordur, for example. However, their style is very hard to play against, especially after a run of good form. At home, Stjarnan are very dangerous and almost always score. That said, they tend to concede a lot too so they’re very much the ideal over 2.5 goals side through and through.
Interestingly enough, Keflavik have started to emulate the playing style of Stjarnan Gardabaer. It didn’t used to be this way; they were notorious in the past for being what IBV Vestmannaeyjar and Breidablik Kopavogur are nowadays. I like their change of style, though – it causes more problems than it should with the squad at their disposal. Although they’re hopelessly outclassed against the better sides in Iceland, they do have joy against weaker/similar sides or sides with awful defences. Well, Stjarnan fall into at least one of those categories and thus I expect quite the open game here. I don’t think that Stjarnan have another style but “open”, to be honest, and Keflavik don’t have the quality nor the tactical intelligence to take the game in another direction if Stjarnan do play their way.
I expect an entertaining game with plenty of goals here. However, it should be Stjarnan scoring the lion’s share of the goals and they should ultimately win the game. I’ve got 3-1, 4-1, 3-2, and 4-2 in my head as potential scorelines (cue the inevitable 0-0!) but let’s wait and see. Either way, over 3 goals looks a steal at 5/6 as it’s a rare day that Stjarnan’s home games don’t at least hit three goals.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 5/6.
Additional games
Club Brugge vs FC Copenhagen – home win at 9/10.
I’ll tell you what, gents – I really like the look of this new-look Club Brugge side. They look strong in their understanding of one another and very dangerous in the final third. I would perhaps question their motivation from time to time (there are a few too many lazy players or players that think they’re better than they are) but I like them overall. The game in Denmark had very little to write home about although it’s well worth noting that Club Brugge were never out of control. Club Brugge were awesome against Beveren and did the job against Charleroi in a game that was made harder than it should have been thanks to a trigger-happy referee. However, despite the physical threat and pace of Charleroi’s players, Club Brugge looked comfortable holding their 0-1 lead (I’ve never said that before in my life about any Club Brugge side!) and should have scored two or three more goals before the end of the game on counter-attacks. I like the way this side lines up and I think that they’re a real threat this season. They’re missing some good players today but they’ve got a big squad and I think that they’ll cope, even with bogey manager Ariel Jacobs at the helm of FC Copenhagen nowadays. I’ll take the Danish heavyweights to win at shitty Esbjerg any day of the week but don’t be misled; they’re not the side that they were. They’ve lost a lot of quality, their manager, and a portion of their confidence. I don’t like the way that they’re shaping up right now. As long as they’re not distracted by European football, I think Nordsjaelland may steal the Superligaen crown again this season but let’s wait and see before jumping the gun, eh? Either way, Copenhagen look weak and predictable so for me, there has to be value on the Club Brugge win at 9/10.
Verdict: Club Brugge to win at 9/10.
Botafogo vs Palmeiras – home win at 4/5.
Botafogo welcome a depleted Palmeiras side to Rio de Janeiro and they should really be able to capitalise on that. Although they’ve not really been at their best of late, Botafogo are beginning to get their results together again and will be encouraged by the fact that Seedorf has settled down now. Uruguayan starlet Lodeiro can’t debutise just yet but his signature sends out a statement of intent for this sleeping giant. Lucas Zen is out but Vitor Junior returns so I’m not too concerned. If there’s one area that Botafogo can afford absentees then it’s midfield as they’ve got Andrezinho, Fellype Gabriel, Elkeson, Renato, and Seedorf to call upon. As long as Herrera takes his chances and Botafogo play with some kind of belief here then they should record a fairly straightforward win.
Palmeiras’ ability to piss sides off by sticking men behind the ball should not be underestimated here. However, their ability to score goals is limited at the best of times. Daniel Carvalho’s return in midfield today does bolster their attack but the doubts over Valdivia and the absence of Joao Vitor does damage their midfield, not to mention the fact that half of their defence is still absent too. Palmeiras can surprise from time to time, especially with in-form Mazinho, but they’re ultimately a very predictable and rather boring side. I think that they could and should be outplayed by a superior Botafogo side today.
For me, there has to be value on the Botafogo win at 4/5. I wouldn’t touch it if the odds go shorter as Botafogo’s form is not worthy of taking them at shorter odds. Palmeiras lack a goal threat and Botafogo have plenty of attacking power so the home side should really emerge victorious from this particular Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo derby.
Verdict: Botafogo to win at 4/5.
Team news
UEFA European Champions League Qualifiers:
Fenerbahce – Krasic, Yobo, Ozgur Cek, and Bienvenu are absent. Topal and Egemen are doubts.
Hapoel Kiryat Shmona – Solari and Tibi are absent.
Anderlecht – Mbokani, Jovanovic, Kouate, Juhasz, Reynaldo, and Vargas are absent.
Club Brugge – Jorgensen, Trickovski, Odjidja, Dhoest are absent. Vadis, Zimling, and Tchite return.
Molde FK – Gatt and Angan are absent. Berget’s fitness is in question.
HJK Helsinki – Mattila and Makela are absent. Zeneli returns.
Helsingborg – Hanstveit is absent. Helsingborg fans are upset as the game was brought forward by the TV Channel screening it (so that they can screen Barcelona vs Manchester United in Goteborg after it) and thus many of them can’t get to the game after work.
Slask Wroclaw – Elsner is absent. Slask’s fans are banned for this game.
Slovan Liberec – Rabusic and Stajner are absent. Nezmar, Kusnir, Bosancic, and Delarge are doubts.
Partizan Belgrade – Vukic, Babic, Eduardo, M.Scepovic, and Pauljevic are absent. Kamara may return.
Dinamo Zagreb – Sammir, Calello, Kovacic, Krstanovic, and Pokrivac are absent.
Motherwell – Chris Humphries is absent.
Celtic – Brown and Forrest are doubts. Mulgrew and Samaras return.
Brazilian Serie A:
Internacional – Dagoberto, D’Alessandro, Leandro Damiao, Kleber, Datolo, Otavinho, Juan, and Elton are absent.
Nautico – Ronaldo Alves and Rogerio are absent. Rhayner, Felipe, Jean Rolt, Kim, Martinez, and Marlon return.
Sport Recife – Edcarlos and Willians are absent. Bruno Aguiar is a doubt. Rivaldo and Henrique return.
Vasco da Gama – Felipe, Rodolfo, Renato Silva, and Jonas are absent. Dede returns.
Bahia – Souza, Mancini, Kleberson, Madson, Coelho, Elias, Jones Carioca, and Jeferson are absent. Gabriel returns.
Portuguesa – Lima and Leandro Silva are absent. Guilherme is likely to sit this one out to keep his hopes of a move alive.
Corinthians – Emerson is absent. Chicao may return. Martinez may debutise.
Atletico Goianiense – Bida, Adriano Pimenta, Felipe Brisola, and Leonardo are absent. PItuca, Marino, and Gabriel return.
Botafogo – Lodeiro, Marcelo Mattos, Willian, Lucas Zen, and Rodrigo Dantas are absent. Vitor Junior returns. Amaral may debutise.
Palmeiras – Wesley, Thiago Heleno, Roman, Mauricio Ramos, Lucas, and Joao Vitor are absent. Henrique and Daniel Carvalho return. Valdivia is a doubt.
Figueirense – Aloisio, Franco Niell, Heber, Toro, Ricardo, Tulio, Almir, and Guilherme Santos are absent. Wilson returns. Claudinei may debutise.
Flamengo – Maldonado and Liedson are absent. Muralha and Deivid return. Airton is a doubt. Thiago Medeiros may debutise.
Santos – Pedro Castro, Fucile, Neymar, Ganso, Rafael Cabral, R.Galhardo, and Edu Dracena are absent. Arouca, Bernardo, and Adriano are absent. Rodriges may debutise.
Cruzeiro – Willian Magrao and Alex Silva are absent. Leo and Sandro Silva return.