TFT Issue 488!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Looks like we’ve got a busy day ahead of us as the below is my trimmed list rather than the first draft!! Take what you fancy and see if the gambling Gods smile upon you!
Featured game
OPS Oulu vs Jippo Joensuu – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Ykkonen dogfight game between OPS Oulu and Jippo Joensuu.
OPS Oulu have disappointed in the last few months, which was inevitable, I guess – they just don’t have a big enough squad to consistently produce good displays. They’ve signed a whole host of African players in the last couple of weeks, the majority of which I’ve never even heard of, so it’ll be interesting to see what role they play (if any). On paper, OPS Oulu are a good enough side to win this game and especially so in Oulu. A morale-boosting and rather unexpected win at KooTeePee Kotka in their last game gives them a comfortable cushion over the relegation zone and winning this game today would put them ten points clear of it with six games remaining, which would be very beneficial. They’ve got some very talented attacking players in Nganbe Nganbe, Jaksic, and Ramirez and they really should have enough to win this game, in my opinion. Still, I won’t give them much faith of doing so, purely because they’ve found this Ykkonen campaign very long and are struggling to score more than one goal per game now and that’s not been enough for them to win a game in all but one of their games this season as their defending can be careless to say the least.
In the past few weeks, it’s become business as usual for Jippo Joensuu in the sense that they’ll simply do their utmost not to lose. They’re a very solid defensive side, especially at home, although a lot of their results this season contradict that. The reason that they became a samba side for a short duration of time was because they had the best striker in the Ykkonen in terrific form in Ngueukam and they felt confident because they knew he’d score the goals for them whenever they went forward. He’s left and signed for FC Lahti now, though, so Jippo have no choice but to revert back to their defensive ways to ensure that they’ll be an Ykkonen side next season, which they really should be anyway, looking at the table. All of their last four away games have gone under 2.5 goals and their display at AC Oulu lately indicated precisely what we should expect from them in the coming weeks; park the bus and hope for the best. Don’t underestimate them when playing in Joensuu but as an away side, I’ll be surprised if they make much of an impact at the other end of the pitch, even with OPS Oulu’s cavalier attitude toward defending.
For me, taking under 2.5 goals is a bit of a steal at 9/10, especially with four out of OPS’ last five Ykkonen home games having gone under 2.5 goals.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional games
Kortrijk vs Waasland-Beveren – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Kortrijk have found Eerste Klasse life a bit tough after a number of their players moved on pre-season. Veselinovic, Chavarria, and Joseph-Monrose all moved on and it’s not going to be easy for them to cope. However, they’re a resourceful and determined side that often do well at home. Defending is not their forté but when you attack with as much conviction as they do, it doesn’t tend to matter, especially against inferior sides. They’ve still got N’For up front and Oussalah weaving his magic in midfield so Kortrijk are not without attacking threats. They need to approach this game correctly as they’ve lost two consecutive games now but they’ve got the mental strength to do so and they’ve got the cohesion and ability to win this game comfortably so I’m definitely interested in taking them to beat the handicap here.
Visitors Beveren are one of the weakest sides in the division, which naturally aids my bet. The fact that they’ve shipped eight goals in four Eerste Klasse games and scored just twice tells you all you need to know about this side. A lot of their players are either too old or too young and the majority are short of quality. For example, consider that Jurgen Cavens is leading their attack. This guy hasn’t been a good striker for at least three years and yet Beveren’s hopes of staying in the Eerste Klasse hinge upon him? He’s no spring chicken nowadays and he doesn’t get the service that he desperately needs to score goals. Beveren have foraged around to find players that other clubs didn’t want and that’s increased their quality level marginally but honestly, it’s going to take something of a miracle for them to avoid relegation this year, I feel.
In my opinion, we have Kortrijk, who are masquerading as a poor side whilst they get their new players gelled in, hosting Beveren, who are poor in all areas. I think Kortrijk are more than capable of making their usual dominance count here and thus the -1 Asian Handicap appeals to me a lot at evens.
Verdict: Kortrijk to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
OH Leuven vs Anderlecht – over 3 goals at 5/6.
A lot of people are at a loss to explain it but taking on OH Leuven at home is one of the hardest games for Eerste Klasse sides to play in nowadays. They work like Trojans, they’re physical, and they’re incredibly good in front of goal. They can’t defend for shit, to be horribly blunt, but they can and will score goals against any side that they host in this league. Stefan Gislason is a capable attacker and Geraerts has already proven himself elsewhere in this division, which certainly accounts for the creativity in this OH Leuven side. As far as goalscoring goes, though, I just couldn’t tell you how it happens. Sawaneh is doing the damage this season following his signing for Mons and the OH Leuven train is showing no signs of slowing down right now, especially having already scored eight goals in four games!
If Anderlecht didn’t have European committments then I might be interested in taking them to win this game. However, they do have European committments so I would advise caution on the 1×2 front. There’s simply no denying the quality that Anderlecht possess, though, and they’ve easily got the biggest squad in the division. They can afford to rotate players here ahead of their home game with AEL Limassol next week and Serbian forward Jovanovic is almost certain to play as he’s suspended for the game against the Cypriots. There are plenty of talented attacking players in this Anderlecht side, irrespective of who they actually play. Biglia may not play, which would be a blow, as he’s supposedly negotiating a move to Norwich City. Nonetheless, I rate this Anderlecht attack very highly and I do fancy them to score a few goals here. That said, their high defensive line continues to cause them problems against every side that they encounter and I doubt that OH Leuven will leave this game without scoring at least once themselves.
Therefore, taking over 3 goals looks like the ideal choice at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 5/6.
Cherno More Varna vs Slavia Sofia – home win at 9/10.
It doesn’t seem to matter who Cherno More Varna lose; they’re simply extremely hard to face on their own turf at the Black Sea. Slavia Sofia know it, too – they’ve lost four out of their last five visits here in the A PFG!
Their style isn’t the prettiest of the Bulgarian clubs but it’s very efficient. The top sides are the only ones that can generally win here (Ludogorets, CSKA Sofia, Levski Sofia, Litex Lovech) as a rule of thumb. Palomino was their star last season although his fitness etc. has been questionable for some time now. Their squad is virtually the same as last season and they’ve always been a very consistent home side and thus I expect them to continue that trend here.
Slavia Sofia are one of the more corrupt sides in Bulgarian football so always be wary of that. As far as quality goes, they’re not a bad side, really. They’re not very well supported and they won’t often upset the big boys but they can play football from time to time. Yankov and Juninho are good players, as is Lazarov, despite his advancing years. However, Slavia Sofia never wholly manage to convince me as they can rarely keep their opponents out. Go a goal down in Varna and you may as well surrender the game, which is precisely what I expect here.
As long as rust doesn’t get the best of them, Cherno More should win this one at 9/10.
Verdict: Cherno More Varna to win at 9/10.
Randers vs FC Copenhagen – away win at evens.
The talk is that FC Copenhagen may rest a few familiar faces here due to their away day in northern France next week and who could blame them? They take a precious lead into that game and they’re not facing a world-class side so they have the chance to get earn themselves a lot of money in the Champions League proper.
However, that point aside, I still find value in taking Copenhagen to win at evens. They’ve easily got the biggest squad in Danish football and they can afford to rotate players here. True enough, they’ve still got to gel some players into their team but from what I’ve seen of Copenhagen over the past couple of weeks, they’ve really started playing as a unit again and have taken their chances expertly. A tenacious side will cause them problems as they’re occasionally a shade passenger-esque but their quality is above the majority of Superligaen sides and I expect that to show against lowly Randers. Randers will work hard and do bring some good momentum into this game following some valuable wins. However, the quality of opponent that they’ve faced does not compare to FC Copenhagen and I feel that that will be their downfall, even with old Kristensen leading the line and ex-Brondby winger Kamper keen to make his mark here.
For me, there’s value on the Copenhagen win at evens.
Verdict: FC Copenhagen to win at evens.
Swansea City vs West Ham United – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Following their emphatic 0-5 win at Queens Park Rangers, I daresay the public bet today will be to back Swansea. I’m not so sure that they’ll do it, however.
They’re definitely good enough to win the game; that much is not in question. However, I can’t realistically back a side with a lot of conviction when their manager is only just experiencing his second game in British football, you know? In leagues that Laudrup has previously coached in, I can guarantee that he’s never come up against a side like an Allardyce side that defends like crazy, fouls all the time, and will do anything just to avoid defeat. Can Swansea handle that? They’ve not got the necessary strikers to do so, in my opinion, although they definitely have the midfield.
I think bringing in Michu and de Guzman was a very smart move from Laudrup as he recognises that midfield is Swansea’s strongest area. They’ve got more than enough quality players to dominate their home games and I think that they’ll do just that. I very much doubt that Laudrup will amend their playing style as he prefers his sides to play attacking football too. Swansea have enough pace and skill to unlock the West Ham defence and win this game but will they? I’m not so sure.
Anyone who has followed English football knows precisely what to expect from West Ham this season. It won’t be pretty. It’ll be dour, defensive, and very physical. Allardyce’s sides are usually very good at it, too. It’s no wonder that he wants to sign Carroll, is it? Signing him and Vidic would probably be the biggest wet dream that Allardyce could ever have, given their size and strength in the air! This West Ham side is not blessed with gifted attackers so I don’t expect them to score many goals this season. They will be a threat from set pieces and they are bigger than this rather small Swansea side so maybe they’ll have some joy there. However, I don’t see them getting battered too often as they don’t attack enough for it to happen.
Therefore, I really like the look of taking under 2.5 goals at 4/5, especially as it’s an early season game and Swansea are usually competent enough at the back.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Manchester United vs Fulham – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
United disappointed at Everton earlier this week but it wasn’t a great surprise, really. I thought United would do enough to edge the game but United were wasteful in the final third and had too many passengers in the squad and not enough battlers. Credit must go to Everton for their tenacious display and I believe that they fully deserved their win, purely for the effort that they put into the game. Lobbing the ball to Fellaini is not up there with the most intelligent of tactical approaches there is but it worked so who can complain? Fellaini and Distin were outstanding in that game so Everton should rightly take the plaudits.
However, what I will say is that there are sides that United can easily play against and sides that United can struggle with. The sides that United do not enjoy playing against are the physical sides. For example, United always struggled with Wolves under Mick McCarthy for that exact reason. Similarly, you’ll never see United dominate Everton and rarely dominate Stoke – that’s just how it goes. Ironically, Fulham used to be one of those sides but the reason that they’re not any longer is the reason that I like the handicap here.
Jol makes Fulham play good football instead of defensive football and that makes them more attractive to watch. He’s done a very good job there too, in my opinion, signing good and proven players. I think it’s a shame for them that Dempsey has spat his dummy out but each to their own. His absence will hurt them, though – that’s a fact. They’ve still got some very talented players, especially in Dembele and Ruiz, so this is not a side to take lightly.
However, Fulham tried playing an open game against United twice last season and were beaten on both occasions without even scoring. The same can be said of a number of their recent visits to Old Trafford, in fact. Fulham actually caused United more problems last season than the scorelines reflected but they’re not focusing on defence any longer, which means United can do as they please to it, which is never a good approach to take to Old Trafford. Fulham’s defence is quite on the slow side and despite the experience that they undoubtedly possess, I don’t think they’re going to get a result here that they’d like. United have a lot of firepower this season and are always very, very strong at home. As long as the rust has gone, we should see a lot of one-way traffic here and I really like the idea of United beating the -1.5 handicap at evens with that in mind.
Verdict: Manchester United to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Southampton vs Wigan Athletic – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
From a realistic perspective, it’s going to be a long season for Southampton and I’m not sure that they’ll be able to stay up. I can already tell that it’d be a shame to see them go as boss Adkins only has one way of playing football and that’s to attack and score goals, which suits Southampton perfectly. I thought they gave City a real fright at The City of Manchester Stadium in their last game and could have got something from the game had they any defensive ability whatsoever, which they sadly don’t. Southampton are going to concede in 90% of their games this season and although they’re likely to score in a lot of them, given their excellent attacking cohesion, I’m not sure they’ll clock up enough points to beat the drop. They’ll be entertaining to watch, though, make no mistake.
In my view, Wigan are a more accomplished side than Southampton. People keep saying that they’re just a crap side who had one good run last season but I disagree. It’s not a coincidence that Wigan have managed to avoid relegation for a number of seasons now – it’s because they have a lot of spirit. They’ve found their leader in Martinez and although they’ve now waved goodbye to Victor Moses, who has joined Chelsea, they do welcome Arsenal youngster Miyaichi into their ranks. I expect to see more of Arouna Kone in their away games as his pace on the counter-attack is lethal. Maloney is looking better than ever in a Wigan shirt and although they’re prone to conceding ridiculous goals from nowhere, this side attacks with conviction and can score goals. They did a fair amount of damage to a superior Chelsea side last time out but couldn’t make it count. I very much doubt that Southampton will be able to handle them here, though.
I’d totally avoid the 1×2 market for this game but I very much like the idea of this one going over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg – over 3 goals at 11/10.
I’m extremely pleased to be able to welcome back the crazy Stuttgart into our weekly betting because they’re as predictable as can be; they attack freely and score goals whilst conceding a copious amount of goals. All of their players are very good at getting forward, especially their full-backs, and they have two strikers in Ibisevic and Harnik that read each other very well indeed. They were a little rusty against Dinamo Moscow mid-week but still managed to make it count ultimately. Stuttgart did create a number of chances, though, and that was against a side that prides itself on its defence. Wolfsburg are not a good side, defensively, so it should be interesting to see what Stuttgart do to them today.
Wolfsburg do have an excellent manager in Magath, though, and a surprise is not off the agenda. Stuttgart may rest players here ahead of their trip to Russia next week so the window of opportunity is there for Wolfsburg. Magath recognises that Wolfsburg’s defence is frail, hence the signings of Fagner from Vasco da Gama and Pogatetz from Hannover 96, not to mention injury-hit Naldo from Werder Bremen. When they adjust, they’ll form a very strong Wolfsburg defence. Until then, I think they’ll ship a lot of goals. Wolfsburg lost Croatian hitman Mandzukic to Bayern Munich following a successful stint at the European Championships but Wolfsburg brought in his fellow countryman Olic and lumbering Bas Dost from Heerenveen to replace him. Magath is obviously engineering this new-look Wolfsburg side to play a more tactical game, especially with the signature of clever playmaker Pilar from Viktoria Plzen. However, it’s going to take time to implement these players and although Wolfsburg are still lethal in attack, I do believe that they’re going to concede a number of goals until they settle. It remains to be seen what Magath’s plans are for playmaker Diego and centre-back Kjaer as both spat their dummies out pre-season. If he can get them playing his way, though, they’ll be valued and integral members of what would rapidly become a formidable Wolfsburg side. Magath won’t take any shit, though – these players could yet leave the club as neither seems to like hard work.
Either way, I really like the prospect of goals in this game. Stay away from the 1×2 market but taking over 3 goals appeals to me massively at 11/10.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 11/10.
Gyori ETO FC vs Kecskemeti TE – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 10/11.
It’s been a low start for Hungary’s Gyori ETO FC with a few unconvincing displays thus far. However, they’ve now won back-to-back games and that momentum will eventually lead them back into playing their dangerous attacking football. The ease with which they’re conceding goals doesn’t rest well with me at the moment but the fact remains that Kamber, Kronaveter, Svec, and Varga are all capable of propelling Gyori ETO FC to wherever they want to be. It’s a shame that Dudas is currently in the reserves as he completes this Gyori ETO FC attack but no matter; this side has proven over the past few years how good they are at home and there’s only a couple of sides that they generally struggle to beat at home. There’s a lot of belief and potency in this Gyori ETO FC side and I fancy them to do the business today, as they almost always do at home.
I respect Kecskemeti TE for the attacking side that they are. They won’t sit back and defend against anyone which is both noble and stupid in the same breath. They’ll cause problems for sides that are not 100% confident in what they’re doing but they’ll take a beating from bigger and better sides than they are, hence me thinking that they’ll struggle here. They’ve played four games this season and are still without a win, losing their last two games in a row. They lost Serbian duo Cukic and Alempijevic pre-season, which damages KTE’s ability to pack the midfield and leaves them playing a more open attacking game instead of a marginally more conservative counter-attacking 4-5-1. Subsequently, that means that they’re going to ship an awful lot of goals this season! Their attack is struggling to cope without the departed Lense and Kethevoama, which casts further doubt on their ability to take something off Gyori ETO FC today.
For me, these two sides are light years apart and although I concede that Gyori ETO FC may give away a daft goal here, I fully expect them to win this game. They should win it convincingly, too – KTE can’t defend whatsoever, hence them losing all of their last four visits to Gyor since being promoted. Therefore, taking Gyori ETO FC to beat the -1 Asian Handicap looks awfully appealing at 10/11.
Verdict: Gyori ETO FC to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 10/11.
Juventus vs Parma – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
It’s going to be fascinating to see how Juventus cope without Conte at the helm this season because although they do clearly have the best squad in Italy right now, you never just know to what level the presence of the manager actually affects things, do you?
Nonetheless, whoever is at the helm, this Juventus side should be scoring goals all the time. Vucinic, Quagliarella, Matri, and Iaquinta are lethal and have now been joined by Giovinco, who may feature today against the club that he played at for all of the previous campaign. They’ve also signed midfield engine Asamoah from Udinese which importantly gives Juventus an even more mobile midfield with Marchisio and Vidal already in it, which is essential when it comes to giving playmaker Pirlo the room to dominate. I don’t like the lack of width in this Juventus side as only Pepe can take the ball down the flank; it makes Juventus awfully one-dimensional. Still, they can win games that way in Italy and they do have attacking full-backs, the most samba of which is Swiss international Lichtsteiner. Impressively, they signed Lucio to partner Chiellini in the centre, which makes Juventus very strong at the back. The injury that Buffon has suffered is not ideal but this Juventus squad looks very strong to me and I think they’ll win the scudetto this time around. However, as far as first games go, I think they’ll give away their usual daft chances and Parma are good enough to punish them on that front. That said, Juventus have too much firepower to do anything but win this game, in my opinion, and thus I expect Juventus to exit this game with three points.
Parma can be tricky customers, though. Yes, they lost Giovinco, which was far from ideal. However, they have signed former Juventus hitman Amauri and I like this guy a lot. He’s not a renowned old-fashioned striker but he’s a very classy and composed finisher, not to mention the fact that he’s good in the air. He can make things happen and given that he’s got the pace of Biabiany and newbie Pabon alongside him, I think that this Parma attack can be more dangerous than it’s anticipated to be, even with big Amauri missing today’s game. Hell, they managed a sublime coup in the signature of Greek playmaker Ninis from Panathinaikos on a free transfer – he should do very well in Serie A. We’ve got Valdes in this team too, so Parma really aren’t short of attacking options. Defensively, Parma aren’t all there with Paletta expected to hold it all together, who is somewhat clumsy and awkward for my money. He has his moments but all I’ll say is if he’s the bedrock of this Parma defence then they’ll concede more often than they should.
However, all of the above thrown into the mix together makes me think that we’ll see goals here. Ideally, I’d like Parma to score in this game to make it easier as a potentially rusty Juventus side may not fancy going all-out to bag three goals. 4/5 on over 2.5 goals looks appealing enough to me, though, especially with Chiellini, Buffon, and Caceres all out and new signing Isla likely to miss out too, creating a chasm of despair in Juventus’ defence!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Table-toppers Stromsgodset have struggled a bit lately with a packed fixture scheduled and some tough games to boot. No trip to Tromso is ever easy but then to take on Brann in Bergen afterward is just taking the piss, really. However, they’re back on familiar land for the game in Drammen against Lillestrom and I expect them to be at their brilliant best too. The artificial turf at the Marienlyst is never easy to play on – unless you’re Stromsgodset – hence the hosts winning eight out of nine at home this season and bagging an impressive twenty-four goals along the way. This side has plenty of pace, height, and overall firepower and they do enjoy showcasing it at home. The only side that avoided defeat here this season was Haugesund and they had to score three goals to achieve the draw. Fredrikstad were thumped 5-0 in Stromsgodset’s last home game and with confidence seemingly never missing from Deila’s dressing room, I fancy another convincing home display from Stromsgodset.
Visitors Lillestrom have gone unbeaten in six games now, which is impressive. I’ve no doubt that they’ll bring momentum into this game as a result too. However, to say that I think they’ve been fortunate would be an understatement, really. They managed to face Rosenborg in Trondheim at a time when their hosts were focusing on their European committments and at a time when they hadn’t signed Reginiussen and Elyounoussi. They managed ot host Molde whilst they had their minds on European football too, which made things easier, and the same can be said of their game against Tromso. Aside from that, Lillestrom haven’t actually done very much at all as the departure of Icelandic hitman Sigurdarson has clearly damaged them substantially. The fact is that Lillestrom don’t have a natural replacement for him and as good as Knudtzon, Andersson, Palmason etc. are, they’re not strikers. Lillestrom realistically should struggle for the remainder of the current campaign and it should only take a few bad results to start the rot. Still, Lillestrom are a largely young squad and they’re confident at the moment so don’t be surprised if they start this game well.
Lillestrom have lost three out of their last four visits to Drammen and have lost their only game on artificial turf this season too. I can’t help but feel that Kovacs and co. will damage Lillestrom here so the -1 Asian Handicap appeals to me at 4/5.
Verdict: Stromsgodset to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow – home win at 9/10.
It’s time for one of many Moscow derbies with Slaven Bilic’s side hosting Dan Petrescu’s side. I can’t be arsed digging up the statistics but I’m sure those two have played against each other in the Premier League before now. Where does the time go?!
Anyway. Lokomotiv have looked good under Bilic, in my view. He appears to have transferred the habits he picked up with Croatia in the sense that Lokomotiv will now concede a goal from absolutely nowhere despite looking in complete control of the situation. However, what Bilic has done that is impressive is that he’s made them into a much more consistent attacking threat. The signing of Caicedo was a great move as he’s got it all – pace, power, movement, and finesse. They’ve brought in powerful striker Pavlyuchenko, who is still too good for this level, and FC Copenhagen hitman N’Doye. They’ve got the pace of the overrated Obinna too, should they need it. Add into the mix a reliable Zapater in front of the back four, Samedov on the flanks, and Glushakov supporting the attack, and you have the potential for a very good goalscoring team. I think it’s a shame that they let Ibricic join Gaziantepspor because he clearly had talent but Lokomotiv are one of the most impatient sides in Russia so I suppose it was inevitable. Lokomotiv look good to me, though – they’re scoring goals for fun and as long as they keep their heads, they should do the same here.
Now that Petrescu is at the helm, I do expect Dinamo Moscow’s results to start to improve. I rate him very highly as a manager as he’s clever and he makes smart signings. The usual organisation and togetherness of the Dinamo side will suit him perfectly when he picks them up off the floor. For the present time, though, I feel he’s going to have to wait it out. Dinamo look poor because their morale is at rock-bottom. They’re conceding daft goals in every game and they’re offering very little attacking threat. I watched them against Terek and against Stuttgart and each time they did very little to their opponents. I think this derby will come too soon for Petrescu to have an impact and the Stuttgart tie may be beyond them although I’d be prepared to stake a lot of money on Dinamo beating Kuban in the game after that as Petrescu was the man who got Kuban promoted in the first place, let’s not forget. Still, that’s another story. As far as today goes, Dinamo look weak and unprepared and barring a miracle, I think that a potent Lokomotiv Moscow side will win this game at 9/10, especially with Dinamo’s only good striker (Kuranyi) absent today.
Verdict: Lokomotiv Moscow to win at 9/10.
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Rubin Kazan’ – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
I liked the option for the home win and under 2.5 goals here but opted for the latter, purely because these two sides are very good at cancelling each other out. After all, I’d be staggered to see Rubin capitulate like Spartak did at Petrovskiy recently, for example. I thought Rubin were unlucky against Spartak as they fell asleep for a corner and a rare Spartak attack cost them the result as Spartak scored the following penalty. Rubin were in control of that game for at least seventy minutes, by my count, and they should have got something. Perhaps the absence of Bocchetti at the back did more than I anticipated but either way, I do like the shape of this Rubin side. They’re very well-organised and won’t attack properly unless they’re certain that they’ll get somewhere, thus making them very cautious. Rondon and Natcho will be constant threats for Rubin but Rubin are not the best at scoring goals, to be honest. They can score from set pieces but scoring from open play has never been a talent of theirs and I doubt it will be today against Spalletti’s Zenit. However, Rubin enjoy being a bogey side for Zenit as today’s hosts almost never manage to beat them. Still, if they’re to break the voodoo then now is the time as their form is strong, they’ve no European committments, and they’ve got a bloody strong squad. The continued absence of Danny is a problem, of course, but a back four with any combination of Lombaerts, Bruno Alves, Lukovic, Hubocan, and Criscito is reliable, to say the least. Shirokov is in the form of his life and with the experience that both he, Zyrianov, and Semak bring to this side, you’ll rarely see Zenit lose their heads. Kerzhakov is a lethal finisher with the right service and when Zenit get that lead, they tend to manage to hold it. My crib with them would be their absence of a “proper” playmaker (such as Danny) as it can hurt them in games like this. Maybe it will, too – Zenit really don’t like playing Rubin!
Ultimately, the head-to-head record did sway me into taking under 2.5 goals here but I do like it a lot as both sides are very cautious and shrewd. It should take an exceptional and/or inspired display from both sides in order for this game to go over 2.5 goals, especially as Rubin welcome back Bocchetti to the heart of defence. Zenit are missing Bruno Alves and Lukovic for this game, incidentally, but should be able to cope against a rather straightforward Rubin attack.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Terek Grozny vs Spartak Moscow – over 2.5 goals at evens.
So Spartak Moscow have now got two away games in the tourist hotspots of the world; Chechnya and Istanbul. Neither of those two places are notorious for their hospitality and thus their football fans are just as crazy.
Spartak have to defeat the corrupt Terek Grozny today, which is a mighty feat, if they manage it. Few sides win here unless they pay to do so (ala CSKA Moscow a season or two ago). Terek simply are not very easy to play against anyway, corruption aside. They’re physical and tenacous and thus a pacey but rather temperamental Spartak side may struggle to impose themselves on this game.
However, Terek themselves have been pretty damn poor, as far performances go at least. They’ve won back-to-back games ahead of this one but haven’t had to do a great deal to win either game. My big concern for Terek is that they seem completely unable to keep eleven men on the field, you know? They’ve played five games in the Premier League this season and they’ve already received three red cards! The signing of Rybus has proven to be a successful one thus far as Lebedenko is no longer isolated in attack, which means that Terek have the capacity to score more goals. Add Georgiev, Ivanov, and Legear to that and you have a Terek side that can and will score goals. Traditionally, Terek are very composed at home but they’ve looked anything but composed this season and a bunch of pacey Brazilians/Argentinians running at their defence wearing Spartak red-and-white won’t sit well with the hosts. I think we’ll see plenty of cards here and Spartak are more than capable of upsetting their hosts although the same can be said of Terek upsetting them. Again, cards are to be expected but I like the prospect of this one going over 2.5 goals at evens, especially with the possibility that Spartak will rest players ahead of their trip to Turkey next week. Incidentally, three out of the last four meetings between these two sides in Grozny have gone over 2.5 goals with the exception ending 2-0.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Real Betis Balompie vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
I do like the idea of Betis winning this one but at 8/11 it’s just a joke. I thought they were excellent against Athletic Bilbao recently although Athletic’s woeful first-half display was the predominant reasoning behind the Andaluscians winning that game.
On their own turf, Betis are more than capable of troubling any side in this division and even Barcelona felt that last season. Ruben Castro is rapidly proving to be an accomplished Primera Liga striker (again!) and now that Betis have snared the impressive Juan Carlos to bolster their midfield, it means that the hosts create more chances instead of just relying on Benat all the time. There’s a lot of pace and grit in this side, not to mention ability, and I like that. Clean sheets, though – that’s like a foreign language to them. They can and will concede against everyone, especially whilst they try to integrate new centre-back Paulao into their side. Betis could and should win this one but with a rocky defence, I wouldn’t put any money on it.
That said, Rayo are likely to be heading down this season, in my view. They knock the ball around well enough but you have to wonder where their goals and assists will come from now their star Michu has moved on. It’s one thing to beat Granada at home but it’s another thing entirely to avoid relegation with very few quality players. Delibasic is a decent target man and Dominguez is a clever forward but my opinion of Rayo is that it’s simply not enough. They concede far too many goals away from home and that tends to cost them. I think there’s a possibility that they could get a result off Betis, depending on which Betis show up, but I would hate to put any money on it.
Instead, I’d much rather take over 2.5 goals at generous odds of 9/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Real Sociedad vs Celta de Vigo – home win at 11/10.
As an Athletic Bilbao enthusiast, I’m supposed to hate Real Sociedad but to be honest, as the years go by, I like them more and more, at least from a betting perspective. Real Sociedad probably make more sense than any other Primera Liga side because they play a predictable English style of football. There are sides that will always beat them and there are sides that Real Sociedad will often have their own way against and it’s up to us to spot which one is which. I like to think that I’ve got that nailed-on with Real Sociedad (cue the inevitable Celta win!!) so let’s see how this one goes.
Real Sociedad love to play against sides that come at them without doing much. Real Sociedad have an awful lot of pace and skill on the counter-attack and love to exploit their opponents like that. The signature of Vela was a huge boost to a side that lost captain Aranburu to retirement. Vela and Griezmann are the future of Real Sociedad and they’ve got Xabi Prieto to learn from, which is just peachy for them. I was extremely impressed to see them snare Gonzalo Castro from Real Mallorca too, who is a very consistent performer in the Primera Liga. Those four players give Real Sociedad a lot of width and pace and will be instrumental to any success that they have. I suspect that we’ll see more of a wide game going forward from Montanier’s team because neither Illarramendi nor Pardo nor Elustondo are really good enough to fill Aranburu’s boots so it doesn’t make sense to deploy the same cautious 4-5-1. They use a 4-3-3 in some home games but they should use it more regularly with such talented wide-men at their disposal. The absence of playmaker Zurutuza from this game tells me that they’ll be playing a much wider game than usual, not to mention the fact that it’s big Agirretxe that is likely to be leading the line. Real Sociedad can usually hold a lead in San Sebastian too, unlike most other Primera Liga sides – bear that in mind! Inigo Martinez misses out today but Anostegi should partner Mikel Gonzalez in the back four so they should be able to take the lead and hold it here.
Celta were relatively smart pre-season with the signings that they made. The problems I have with them are that their squad is way too thin and that it’s also very short on quality. For example, watch Celta play a game without club legend Oubina in the centre of midfield and see how badly they retain the ball. Fernandez was signed to be their playmaker, which is smart – I like him. Cabral will be a good leader in the centre of defence, too – good signings. A forward line with Segunda Liga level forward Bermejo, past-it De Lucas, and new signing Krohn-Deli, though? That screams “epic fail!” to me, to be honest. I like that they’ve signed Krohn-Deli as it shows that Paco Herrera clearly recognises the need for new players in this rather average squad. Celta failed to score against Malaga at home last time out, which is pretty “fail” in itself as everyone scores against Malaga. Now the Galicians have a tough trip to the Basque country to take on a very accomplished home side and I think that they’ll really struggle to establish themselves, even with a full squad available and Krohn-Deli ready to try his hand at the highest level he’s ever played at.
For me, the home win is generously priced at 11/10. Expect the odds to rise, though – the Spanish tend to think that Sociedad can’t play well without Zurutuza. I think they can, though, especially with Castro in their ranks.
Verdict: Real Sociedad to win at 11/10.
Djurgarden vs Helsingborg – home win at 6/5.
Well, if Djurgarden are to beat Helsingborg then now is the time. New signing Fejzullahu has settled straight in and their opponents have not only sold their only quality striker (Finnbogason) but also have a trip to Scotland next week which will almost certainly take all of their attention.
I don’t like the fact that Djurgarden can’t keep a clean sheet like…ever, but I do like that they can score against anyone. They’ve won three consecutive games now whilst bafflingly keeping two clean sheets along the way. They’ve got two very good strikers in Fejzullahu and Keene (both of which Helsingborg would kill to have!) and they also have Sjolund, Hamalainen, and Chibsah providing invaluable support, although winger Hamalainen is reportedly looking for a new club. Djurgarden have absentees at the back but what’s new? They can’t defend anyway so I won’t read much into that.
Helsingborg, though – they’ve got a big decision to make here. If they play their first-team then they may get a result as they’re better-organised than Djurgarden. However, if they rotate their squad, as I suspect that they will, then they’re going to lose this game. Helsingborg don’t have the depth that they once had and playing a second string against an attack-minded and deceptively strong Djurgarden side would be suicide. They may not have any choice, though – European football gives them more money to play with and they need that money to buy Wanderson from GAIS Goteborg, realistically speaking. Mind you, I’m not so sure that there’s anything Hareide can do to actually rotate things for Helsingborg here, at least in defence. They’re already missing Atta, Edman, Lindstrom, Hantsveit, and Wahlstedt for this game so if you can make a back four out of those that remain then please be my guest to do so ’cause I can’t! Importantly, new signing Bedoya is out of this game and it was his infectious pace and tenacity that inspired Helsingborg to a strong first-half display in Boras lately. His absence deprives Helsingborg of any kind of attacking threat and although Alvaro Santos can score goals and new wonderkid Accam will be keen to impress, you have to feel that Helsingborg are out of their depth here.
For me, it’s worth taking Djurgarden at long odds of 6/5 with the above in mind.
Verdict: Djurgarden to win at 6/5.
Sivasspor vs Mersin Idmanyurdu – home win at 4/5.
Despite a poor pre-season for Sivasspor, I have a lot of faith in them, especially at home. They’ve already got a win under their belt following their 0-1 success at Gaziantepspor last weekend and that momentum should help them here. They’ve got a good bunch of attacking players, for my money. Grosicki is a very clever player and although big Czech hitman Bednar misses out here, Pedriel and Eneramo should duly oblige for the hosts. Sivasspor have a good core to their defence in Navratil and Rajnoch too, which appeals to me. Calimbay’s side need to get some consistency together as they had very little of that pre-season. Still, the quality is there and it’s a good side that can take anything away from Sivas, in my book. Sivasspor have kept most of their players from last season and have added some good players to their ranks so I fancy them to have a good season and to follow up last week’s success with a win here.
That said, it won’t be an easy task for them to do so. Mersin Idmanyurdu have established a bit of a reputation for themselves of being hard to beat, especially on the road. They’ve been astute in the transfer market pre-season, picking up talented Argentinian winger Culio from Orduspor and the strong Yattara, who had previously played at Trabzonspor prior to his move to the Middle East. They’re both good wingers and give Mersin Idmanyurdu a good balance – or will when they adjust. However, Mersin lost hard man Zurita and lost Brazilian playmaker Andre Moritz as recently as yesterday, both of which cause problems for Mersin, especially on the road. They’ve still got ex-Fenerbahce frontman Nobre leading the line alongside strong Ozukwo and they’ve always got the skill of Spas Delev if they need an alternative but the core of Mersin’s midfield looks to be a problem area that Grosicki and co. can exploit.
Long-term, I think that Mersin may well have a good season this time around. However, I think the trip to Sivas is too much for them with virtually a complete revamp of their midfield having jeopardised their chances of getting a result against their able hosts today.
Verdict: Sivasspor to win at 4/5.
Team news
Argentinian Primera Division:
Argentinos Juniors – Matellan and Fernandez are absent.
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza – No absentees.
All Boys – No absentees.
Tigre – No absentees.
Union de Santa Fe – No absentees.
Boca Juniors – Ustari, Viatri, Sosa, Erviti are doubts. Caruzzo is absent.
Independiente – Rodriguez, Gabbarini, and Fredes are absent.
Arsenal de Sarandi – Perez is absent.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
OH Leuven – Thompson, Vanaudenaerde, Ruytinx, and De Vriese are absent.
Anderlecht – Mbokani is absent.
Germinal Beerschot – Wuytens, Dayan, and Vanasch are absent.
Charleroi – Dzinic, Escoe, Keita, and Leandro are absent.
Kortrijk – Carevic, Czvitkovics, Capon, and Ragolle are absent.
Waasland-Beveren – No absentees.
Cercle Brugge – Vetokele has left. Bakanga may debutise.
Lierse SK – Diakite, De Wree, Claasen, Frans, and Swinkels are absent.
Brazilian Serie A:
Palmeiras – Thiago Heleno, Marcos Assuncao, Luan, Daniel Carvalho, Fernandinho, Wesley, and Maikon Leite are absent. Valdivia is a doubt.
Santos – Leo, Galhardo, Fucile, Edu Dracena, and Henrique are absent. Durval, Juan, and Gerson Magrao return.
Vasco da Gama – Eder Luis, Rodolfo, and Renato Silva are absent. Fernando Prass is a doubt. Tenorio returns.
Fluminense – Deco, Anderson, and Marcos Junior are absent. Bruno Vieira, Wellington Nem, Mateus, Edinho, and Fred return.
Ponte Preta – Roger, Gustavo, Rene Junior, Caio, Geronimo, Wescley, and Tony are absent. Rildo is a doubt.
Portuguesa – Boquita, Luis Ricardo, and Leandro Silva are absent. Lima returns.
Bulgarian A PFG:
CSKA Sofia – Platini, Serginho, Kiriakidis, Venkov, Benjelloun, Tasio, and Rodrigues are absent. Neutral venue – Sliven.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – No news.
Pirin Gotse Delchev – No news.
Ludogorets – No absentees.
Cherno More Varna – Kolev, Kamazola, and Atanasov are doubts. Palominho returns. Fernandes has left.
Slavia Sofia – Hugo Lopez is absent.
Montana – Chepilov and Tsvetkovski may debutise.
Levski Sofia – Bashliev, D.Dimov, Tonev, Vutov, Tsonev, Pinto, and Vesalov are absent. Starokin and Yovov are doubts.
Litex Lovech – Despodov is absent.
Minior Pernik – No news.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Cibalia Vinkovci – Matos, Juric, and Lucic are absent.
Istra 1961 – Prgomet is absent.
NK Zagreb – Cica and Djengoue may debutise.
Split – Zagorec, Krizanac, Piric, Babic, Pehar, and Serdarusic are absent.
Zadar – Terkes is absent.
Dinamo Zagreb – Kovacic and Tomacek are absent. Badelj has left. Krstanovic, Vida, and Vrsaljko are doubts.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Marila Pribram – No absentees.
Dukla Prague – No absentees.
Slovacko – Dosek is a doubt. New boss – Habanec.
Teplice – Hosek is absent.
Danish Superligaen:
Randers – No absentees.
FC Copenhagen – No absentees.
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Paide – No absentees.
Viljandi – Mutt and Tsegodajev are absent.
Flora Tallinn – Mets is absent.
Tammeka – Valtna is absent.
No news for the other Meistriliiga games.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Haka Valkeakoski – Dema, McFaul, and Salonen are absent. Ristila has been sacked. Neutral venue – Hameenlinna.
FC Lahti – Kemppinen, Veltheim, Kari, Tuomi, and Hukka are absent. Alho may debutise.
Finnish Ykkonen:
PK-35 Helsinki – Kabashi, Weckstrom, Oravainen, F.Seferi, Karki, and Raimi are absent.
RoPS Rovaniemi – Kononen is absent.
OPS Oulu – Suleiman, M.Juntunen, and Huovinen are absent. Boss Miika Juntunen is suspended.
Jippo Joensuu – Koivuranta and Ake are doubts. Eronen and Suoraniemi return.
Viikingit Helsinki – Gonzalez and Ahonen are absent.
SJK – Tiitus Lehtinen and Penninkangas are absent.
German Bundesliga:
Eintracht Frankfurt – Amediek and Djakpa are absent.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – No absentees.
VfL Wolfsburg – Josue, Pilar, and Helmes are absent.
VfB Stuttgart – Audel and Didavi are absent.
Hoffenheim – Babel and Brafheid are absent.
Borussia Moenchengladbach – No absentees.
SC Freiburg – Rosenthal, Caligura, and Mujdza are absent.
Mainz 05 – Mueller is absent.
Augsburg – Moelders, Backer, Bah, and Philip are absent.
Fortuna Dusseldorf – Lambertz, Cha, and Soares are absent.
Hamburger SV – Rajkovic, Scharner, Arslan, Kacar, and Rincon are absent.
Nurnberg – Hlousek and Mendler are absent.
Greuther Furth – Kraus, Zilner, and Ohandza are absent.
Bayern Munich – Raeder, Contento, Rafinha, van Buyten, Alaba, Ribrey, and Gomez are absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – No absentees.
Bnei Sakhnin – Abbas, Abu-Salah, and Osman are absent. Kalibat is a doubt.
Hapoel Haifa – No absentees.
Maccabi Netanya – Ceran and Binyamin are absent. Saba’a and Dajani are doubts. Banin’s first game in charge is against his old club.
MS Ashdod – Macreev is absent.
Ironi Ramat Hasharon – Fernandes and Musa are absent.
Hapoel Acre – R.Dayan and Levi are absent.
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – No absentees.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona – Solari, Tibi, and Gerzicich are absent. Salalik may debutise.
Beitar Jerusalem – Kozokin, Moshe, Haddad, Ibinder, Ben-Shushan, Dasa, and Ben-Yosef are absent. Skvorc will debutise.
Italian Serie A:
Juventus – Caceres, Buffon, Chiellini, and Pepe are absent. Isla is a doubt.
Parma – Galloppa, Amauri, Palladino, Sansone, and Santacroce are absent.
Fiorentina – No absentees.
Udinese – Barreto is absent. Badu is a doubt.
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Utrecht – Ayoub, Zullo, and Bovenberg are absent.
PEC Zwolle – Boer is absent.
VVV Venlo – Maguire, Altheer, and Reimerink are absent.
ADO Den Haag – Horvath and Leeuwin are absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Enoh, Boilesen, and Sigthorsson are absent.
NAC Breda – Seuntjens is absent. Verbeek is a doubt.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Stromsgodset – Aas, Ibrahim, and Ovenstad are absent.
Lillestrom – Stoor, Kippe, Gulbrandsen, and Omoijuanfo are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala – Pawela is absent.
Wisla Krakow – Bunoza is absent. No away fans allowed for this game.
Widzew Lodz – Kowalski and Mrozinski are absent.
Ruch Chorzow – Sultes is absent.
Polonia Warsaw – Holota, Przybecki, Kielb, and Przyrowski are absent.
Lech Poznan – Slusarski and Rataczak are absent.
Polish Liga 1:
Warta Poznan – No news.
Dolcan Zabki – Piesio is absent.
Olimpia Grudziadz – Gebauer and Szczot are absent.
LKS Lodz – No news.
Bogdanka Leczna – Zuber and Renusz are absent. Szalachowski is a doubt. Pesir returns.
Katowice – No absentees.
Flota Swinoujscie – Bodziony is a doubt.
Tychy 71 – Rocki is absent.
Cracovia Krakow – Dudzic is absent.
Stomil Olsztyn – No news.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Porto – Castro, Kevin, Abdoulaye, and Ronaldo are absent. A.Pereira has left.
Vitoria Guimaraes – No absentees. Bamba debutises.
Sporting Braga – Eder, Alan, Ismaily are absent. Paulo Cesar returns.
Beira-Mar – Saleh, Cintra, and Desco are absent.
Romanian Liga:
Rapid Bucharest – Rui Duarte, Renan Silva, Iliojski are absent. Pancu is a doubt.
CFR Cluj – Muresan, Kapetanos, and Deac are absent.
Otelul Galati – Didi, Sarghi, and S.Ilie are absent.
Gloria Bistrita – No absentees.
Astra Giurgiu – Barboianu is absent.
Concordia Chiajna – Cirseta and Elvis are absent. Popa and Rocha have left.
Russian Premier League:
Lokomotiv Moscow – Torbinskiy, Guilherme, and Yanbaev are absent.
Dinamo Moscow – Kuranyi and Rykov are absent.
Zenit St.Petersburg – Bukharov, Bruno Alves, Lukovic, and Semak are absent.
Rubin Kazan’ – No absentees.
Terek Grozny – Legear, Katz, and N’Duassel are absent.
Spartak Moscow – Parshivlyuk, McGeady, Bryzgalov, Gatagov, Romulo, and Kallstrom are absent.
Rostov-na-Donu – Kirichenko and Okoronkwo are absent.
Alaniya Vladikavkaz – Cardozo, Hubulov, and Dudiev are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Inverness Caledonian Thistle – Hogg, Foran, and Tudur-Jones are absent.
Celtic – Ledley, Kayal, Murphy, McGreouch, and Stokes are absent. Samaras, Commons, Brown, and Rogne are doubts.
Dundee – Riley, Finnegan, and McBride are absent.
Ross County – Malin, Lawson, and Scott are absent.
Hibernian – Galbraith and Stevenson are absent.
St.Johnstone – Beattie, Millar, and M.Davidson are absent.
Kilmarnock – Bell, Hay, Heffernan, Muirhead, and Fisher are absent.
Dundee United – No absentees.
Serbian Super Liga:
OFK Belgrade – Bogavac is absent. Trivunovic is a doubt.
Hajduk Kula – No absentees.
Vojvodina Novi Sad – No absentees.
BSK Borca – Djukic and Sotirovic are absent.
Javor Ivanjica – No absentees.
Spartak Subotica – Otasevic has left.
Sloboda Sevojno – No news.
Donji Srem – No news.
Rad Belgrade – No news.
Smederevo – No news.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Sociedad – Zurutuza and I.Martinez are absent.
Celta de Vigo – No absentees. Krohn-Deli may debutise.
Real Betis Balompie – Mario is absent.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – No absentees.
Espanyol – Mattioni, Garcia, Colotto, and Baena are absent.
Real Zaragoza – Apono is absent.
Malaga – Baptista, Eliseu, and Kameni are absent.
Real Mallorca – Gimenez and Arizmendi are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Djurgarden – Broberg, Riddez, Rajalakso, and Pedersen are absent.
Helsingborg – Edman, Wahlstedt, Bedoya, Atta, Lindstrom, and Hanstveit are absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Sivasspor– Bednar and Ozgen are absent.
Mersin Idmanyurdu – Tozlu, Toscali, Sarp, and Aysan are absent.
Orduspor – Sahin and Tuncer are absent. Neutral venue.
Eskisehirspor – Cosgun is absent.
Akhisar Belediye – Ates and Cebe are absent.
Genclerbirligi – Can is absent.
Fenerbahce – Demirel, Alex, and Kesimal are absent.
Gaziantepspor – Popov is absent.