TFT Issue 492!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The same rules apply today as they did yesterday; approach with caution. Second legs are tough, especially at such a crucial stage of the UEFA Champions League where a lot of money awaits the victors.
Featured game
Real Madrid vs Barcelona – away win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Spanish Super Cup second leg between Real Madrid and Barcelona. Barcelona won the first leg 3-2, which leaves this tie finely poised so hopefully we’ll see another good game of football here.
Despite the scoreline in the first leg, you can’t help but feel that Barcelona should have been more comfortable than they were. Had it not been for Valdes’ gaffe then the Spanish Cup would be pretty much over by now, in my view. Barcelona were never really out of control in the first leg and although this game will be played at the intimidating Santiago Bernabeu, I expect the relentless composure and tenacity of Barcelona to shine through here.
True enough, Real Madrid are not a side to be underestimated. However, I’ve watched them a few times of late and each time I see them, the less convinced I am by them. Ronaldo is still absolutely sensational but Higuain looks fat and Benzema is not being utilised properly, which tends to mean that he becomes sullen and disinterested. Real Madrid are struggling at the back (as usual!) with their defence looking more samba than ever.
Don’t get me wrong here – Real Madrid are still a top class side and they’re still not going to be easy to beat in this game. However, Barcelona have a winning mentality that I personally don’t believe Real Madrid have just yet. They had it last season but they look complacent this season whereas the mark of true champions (e.g. Barcelona) is that that winning mentality stays in the players for all of their playing careers and even beyond, which filters down to the youngsters coming through. Barcelona want to beat Real Madrid badly and you can see it on the faces of all of their players, a lot of which are home-grown, which adds extra motivation for them in this ferocious derby.
To me, Barcelona are the more complete side here and they’re definitely more consistent than their hosts. It’s really not a surprise that Barcelona have avoided defeat here for seven consecutive visits in all competitions because their desire is so high that even Real Madrid can’t match it. Barring an abject display from Barcelona or an inspired display from Real Madrid, I have to consider taking Barcelona to win with game with draw no bet at 5/6 as pure value.
Verdict: Barcelona to win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Additional games
Fenerbahce vs Spartak Moscow – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.
This one is probably the riskiest call of the day as far my tips go but I like it nonetheless.
Why? Well, Spartak Moscow are simply a better side than Fenerbahce right now. Fenerbahce’s boss Kocaman made the biggest call any Fenerbahce boss has made for a while by dropping club star Alex for their last game. It worked out for them in the end as they ran out 3-0 winners as Gaziantepspor but what message does that really send out? The fans adore Alex and it’s largely because he’s one of the best players that they’ve ever had. Sure, Fenerbahce can beat Gaziantepspor 3-0 but this is a very different game, isn’t it? Gaziantepspor had just sold their best player Popov prior to that game, incidentally, so let’s not go crazy. Alex will not be in the mood for today’s game (if he’s even picked) and thus Fenerbahce have deprived themselves of a pure match-winner for this game, which simply cannot be good for them. Fenerbahce are not blessed with a big squad of talent nowadays; they need to be more careful, in my opinion.
The fact is that Fenerbahce have not played a good game of football this season, irrespective of their results. I watched them in the first leg against Spartak and although they occasionally threatened on the counter-attack, I thought that they were weak defensively and they relied too heavily on veteran Dirk Kuyt. Spartak Moscow attack without fear and as long as they have some joy (e.g. scoring) then they don’t get petty and start having men sent off. If the referee is against them (or so they perceive) or they concede goals early in the game then they’ll sulk and lose this game easily, especially in Turkey, which is notorious for its hostile receptions.
However, as a team, Spartak Moscow are simply a lot more dangerous than Fenerbahce when it comes to attacking and scoring goals. They’re especially deadly on counter-attacks with their pace, too. Fenerbahce have to attack Spartak here, which leaves lots of gaps at the back. I think Spartak have a better chance here than the bookies do; I’ll put it that way.
Again, it’s risky as both sides are temperamental so things need to go just right. Nonetheless, I believe there’s a good chance of that as long as Spartak grow accustomed to Istanbul quickly and thus my call is for Spartak to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Verdict: Spartak Moscow to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Fluminense vs Corinthians – home win at 11/10.
Odds are rising on the home win and I’m not entirely sure unless someone knows something I don’t?! I respect Corinthians a lot but Fluminense are a better side than them this season and the Serie A table correctly reflects that, in my view.
Fluminense have no problem keeping opposing sides out, especially in Rio de Janeiro. Their biggest hurdle is scoring goals but talismanic striker Fred is in good form and should be a potent threat today. Deco is still on the sidelines and forward Samuel joins him but I’m not massively concerned with either because Thiago Neves is pulling the strings and Fred is scoring the goals. For me, that combination is more than good enough for Fluminense to win 75% of their games in Brazil this season and I expect more of the same today. Abel Braga is a fucking good manager, if you’ll pardon my French, as he knows how to get his sides winning games consistently. Just look at Fluminense’s record both this season and of late. They’ve eleven out of their last fifteen Serie A games, drawing three times, and losing just once during that period. They’ve shipped one goal in their last six home games, which was against Sao Paulo, and that was despite them facing Flamengo in the big Rio derby! They won another Rio derby 1-2 at a strong Vasco da Gama side and momentum is high. For me, Fluminense are the best side in Brazil this year and I expect them to continue showing it here.
Visitors Corinthians are nowhere near as bad as the table suggests but bad decisions and bad squad rotation has cost them everything this season. On top of that, they’ve lost back-to-back Sao Paulo derbies lately against Santos and Sao Paulo respectively so morale is hardly high. Corinthians have little to play for at the moment so they are struggling for motivation. They’re horribly short of goalscorers with only Emerson, Romarinho, and Adilson fit, none of which are great. Corinthians excel at stopping other sides from scoring goals but with what motivation will they do that today? If Fluminense do score – which I expect them to – who will drag Corinthians back into the game? The only natural leader that they have is Danilo in midfield and they’re frankly something of a shell compared to the side that they were. I expect them to struggle in every department today and ultimately lose the game because of it.
For me, there’s value on Fluminense at 11/10.
Verdict: Fluminense to win at 11/10.
Santos vs Bahia – home win with -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
Taking Santos to break a handicap without any insurance is always a bold call, believe me. This side cannot and will not defend; fact. They work very hard, however, and that does help them against sides that don’t work as hard as they do. Unfortunately, that’s not much of an advantage today as Bahia are notorious for their workrate too.
However, what Santos do have here that Bahia sadly don’t is an awful lot of firepower. Since Neymar and Ganso came back from the Olympics, Santos have bagged eight goals in three games, winning all three games, two of which were local derbies. Anyone else see the pattern here? Santos fans aren’t happy with Ganso right now, mind you – they were unhappy about his comments about him saying that he’d not have a problem wearing the Sao Paulo jersey if the opportunity arose. Well, that’s like pissing in the drinks of Santos fans all over the place, basically, so he got booed a lot last time out. Still, he’s said that he’ll continue to give the club his all and alongside Neymar, Santos have a lethal attacking duo, wherever they play. Santos are playing well and with confidence so I fancy them to hammer Bahia here.
Bahia are strong at home but weak away. They’ve been suffering with a huge injury list for a long time and although a number of them have returned now, it was too late to save the job of Caio Junior, who has been replaced by Jorginho. Jorginho won’t be in charge for this game, however – interim boss Eduardo Barroca will be instead. Goalkeeper Lomba is on the sidelines for this game, as is regular midfielder Fabinho. Quite how Bahia expect to handle the threat of Neymar and Ganso without their holding midfielder is beyond me, really. Bahia may have only lost five away games this season but you’ll note the pattern of them losing against the bigger and better sides, especially the fact that they’ve been handicapped in three of those five games. I think battling Bahia are way out of their comfort zone here and I think that a rampant Santos will tear them apart.
I expect a lot of goals and there’s every chance that Santos will concede here but at 11/10, I really like the look of Santos beating the -1.5 handicap tonight.
Verdict; Santos to beat the -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
Gremio vs Vasco da Gama – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
For me, this is simply one of those games. Everything points to this game going under 2.5 goals and thus it has that special voodoo curse which means that it’ll probably be 4-4. You know what I mean!
I’ll explain why this one should cruise under 2.5 goals though, as logic says that this game should have very few goals. Ok – both of these two sides tick when a certain player is playing. For Gremio, it’s Elano, and for Vasco, it’s Juninho. Both of those players are absent today. Vasco set their stall up to defend away from home, hence them hardly ever losing on the road and hardly ever scoring. That’s the way that Gremio tend to set themselves up at home too. Both of these sides put defence first rather than attack and that tends to mean that both produce under 2.5 goals games in their respective scenarios. Both sides are especially weak in midfield today with Gremio also missing Gilberto Silva and Vasco missing Felipe Brisola. Although nothing is impossible in football, with the tactical approaches of both of these sides and the respective absentees that they both have, I simply cannot envision a logical scenario whereby this game goes over 2.5 goals.
Therefore, taking under 2.5 goals looks an absolute steal at 4/5.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:
Helsingborg – Edman and Hanstveit are absent. Atta, Wahlstedt, and Lindstrom return.
Borussia Moenchengladbach – No absentees.
FC Copenhagen – Vertokele may debutise.
Celtic – Rogne, Brown, Samaras, and Commons are doubts.
Fenerbahce – Demirel and Kesimal are absent. Alex will start on the bench.
Brazilian Serie A:
Santos – Edu Dracena, Galhardo, Henrique, Fucile are absent. Leo is a doubt.
Bahia – Fabinho, Marcelo Lomba, Coelho, and Avine are absent. Kleberson, Elias, Mancini, Diones, and Helder return. New boss Jorginho is not in charge for this game – interim boss Eduardo Barroca is instead.
Coritiba – Lucas Mendes, Everton Ribeiro, Emerson, Cleiton, Jackson, Sergio Manoel, Thiago Primao, Everton Costa, Marcel, and Keirrison are absent. Leonardo has left. Roberto is a doubt.
Internacional – D’Alessandro, Otavinho, Dagoberto, and Datolo are absent.
Atletico Mineiro – Pierre, Bernard, and Triguinho are absent. Escudero returns.
Ponte Preta – Roger, Nikao, Wescley, Geronimo, Gustavo, and Rene Julio are absent.
Portuguesa – Luis Ricardo, Leandro Silva, and Heverton are absent. Boquita returns.
Palmeiras – Mauricio Ramos, Roman, Patrik, Daniel Carvalho, Fernandinho, Marcos Assuncao, and Wesley are absent. Luan, Artur, Marcio Araujo, Thiago Heleno, and Maykon Leite return.
Nautico – Rogerio, Ramirez, and Kieza are absent. Marlon returns.
Figueirense – Tulio, Abreu, Botti, Heber, Volpi, Julio Cesar, and Joao Paulo are absent. Wilson returns.
Fluminense – Deco, Samuel, Marcos Junior, and Anderson are absent.
Corinthians – Paulo Andre, Jorge Henrique, Martinez, and Guerrero are absent. Edenilson returns.
Gremio – Gilberto Silva, Elano, Vilson, Fabio Aurelio, and Julio Cesar are absent.
Vasco da Gama – Juninho, Felipe Bastos, Eder Luis, Rodolfo, and Renato Silva are absent.
Atletico Goianiense – Bida, Felipe Brisola, Adriano Pimenta, Leonardo, and Rafael Cruz are absent.
Cruzeiro – Leandro Guerreiro, Mateus, Fabinho, Ceara, Willian Magrao, and Victorino are absent. Souza and Wellington Paulista return.
Finnish Ykkonen:
AC Oulu – Makela is absent. Juuso Majava is a doubt. Nurmos returns.
OPS Oulu – Miika Juntunen has a touchline ban.
Hameenlinna – Hertsi returns.
HiFK Helsinki – Kastrati, Karkkainen, and Ranta are absent. Koskinen, Kibona, Halme, Antman, and Okkonen return.
Jippo Joensuu – Gruda is absent. Korpela is a doubt.
Viikingit Helsinki – Honkaniemi is absent. Gonzalez and Ahonen return.
RoPS Rovaniemi – Kononen, Lahtinen, Turcios, Tyystala, and Maisonvaara are doubts.
KooTeePee Kotka – Wheeler, Jammeh, and Lomidze are absent.
SJK – Toni Lehtinen, Tiitus Lehtinen, Penninkangas, and Sipila are absent.
PK-35 Helsinki – Karki, Kabashi, Weckstrom, Oravainen, and Raimi are absent.
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Tromsdalen – Ahamad returns.
Kongsvinger – Shindika, Johansen, and Fazlagic are absent.
Hodd – Kleppe, Heltne, Ahamed are absent. Helland returns. Home debut for Sellin.
Notodden – Lien, Jenssen, Sande, Amundsen, Granerud, Jahr, Dale, and Marque are absent. Tried to postpone their game due to absentees but Norwegian FA refused.
Ullensaker/Kisa – Dos Santos is absent.
Sandefjord – Royrane and Gabrielsen are absent. Cheikhou returns.
Polish Liga 1:
Cracovia Krakow – Ntibazonkiza is a big doubt. Dudzic is absent. Suvorov is a doubt. Close alliance between the two clubs.
Arka Gdynia – No absentees. Close alliance between the two clubs.
Spanish Super Cup:
Real Madrid – Pepe is absent.
Barcelona – Muniesa, Abidal, Cuenca, and Thiago Alcantara are absent.