TFT Issue 499!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Lots of dodgy games today so approach betting with caution!
Featured game
Azerbaijan U21 vs England U21 – home win with +2 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier between Azerbaijan U21 and England U21.
Most responses to people when asked about Azerbaijan (or their U21 side) is “lol” or something equally as stupid. This nation used to be weak internationally but that’s simply not the case nowadays. They’re not Spain U21, quite obviously, but they’re certainly not as bad as the odds for tonight’s game suggest that they are. This side plays good football, attacks well, and does score goals. Azerbaijan U21 beat Iceland U21 here and drew 2-2 with Belgium U21 so they’re really not a side to underestimate. They’re pretty shoddy defensively and if they concede an early goal then this bet could be in real danger of being torn apart. However, I have sufficient faith in them maintaining their usual vigour and attacking flair here, courtesy of years of Brazilian input into Azeri football. Striker Cihan Ozkara is an interesting prospect, as is Amit Guluzade. There’s experience and potential in this side and I think that they’ll give a good account of themselves here.
England U21 are obviously the better side here; you don’t need me to tell you that. Look at the players that they’re missing today, though. There’s no Kyle Walker, no Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, no Ross Barkley, no Jack Wilshere, no Gary Gardner, no Danny Welbeck, no Phil Jones. This side is very short of both leadership and width and I think that’s a problem here. Unlike a lot of people, I do rate Aston Villa forward Delfouneso and the height of Wickham is a handful although he’s not had much game time for a while. Rodwell is a great box-to-box midfielder and the likes of Shelvey and McEachran are capable players. I like Zaha and Ince a lot but they’re inexperienced at this level so I don’t know how they’ll do. Despite some very talented players, I think this side lacks experience, lacks leadership, and lacks width (well, of any experience, at least – you can’t doubt the potential of both Ince and Zaha!). Pearce’s sides rarely look comfortable at the back and at a difficult venue, I think England U21 may struggle here.
I don’t like relying on statistics so I don’t. However, they do support my cause here as far as England U21 are concerned. England U21 haven’t won by a sufficient margin since 2007 (barring their 0-3 win at Iceland U21, which was 85% due to Oxlade-Chamberlain, who is not in the squad today) against Republic of Ireland U21. England U21 tend to struggle to score goals on the road and have a nasty habit of conceding. This side is not Barcelona; I don’t grasp such short odds on the England U21 win here. I think England U21 will edge it, for what it’s worth, but I find a lot of value in giving the Azeri hosts a +2 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Verdict: Azerbaijan U21 to win with +2 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Additional games
Sweden vs China – home win with -1.5 handicap at 9/10.
It’s difficult to know which Sweden side will turn up for games like these. If they turn up then this one will win comfortably. If they don’t, they’ll edge it in unconvincing fashion. Still, they’re at around 90% strength for this game and it’s being played in Sweden so they should be motivated. The absence of Wilhelmsson bothers me as he’s key in changing a game if things aren’t going Sweden’s way. Still, they’ve got more than enough talent in Ibrahimovic, Toivonen, Elmander, Elm, Larsson, Svensson, and Bajrami to do well here. I have my doubts over Sweden’s defensive capabilities but despite China’s advances over the past few years, I still don’t see them troubling Sweden much, not in Helsingborg. Besides, China have a bigger game against Brazil a few days after this one. If they’re going to use fringe players here then it should be in this game. Li Weifeng and Du Wei are not in the team so China’s defence isn’t as strong as normal. There’s also no Bo Qu up front and although there’s experience in midfield, I can’t help but feel that we’ll see a lot of one-way traffic here. For me, Sweden are worth the -1.5 handicap at 9/10 although it may be prudent to wait until you see the line-ups before climbing aboard.
Verdict: Sweden to beat the -1.5 handicap at 9/10.
Latvia U21 vs Kazakhstan U21 – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
The two worst sides in the group lock horns in Latvia and for me, the hosts are way too short to win this game. They should be better than Kazakhstan U21 but they’re not, in my opinion. The Kazakh side do more going forward, they’re better-organised, and they’re better at keeping other sides out, especially on their own turf. Latvia’s senior team are so poorly placed that anyone with real talent goes straight into the senior team so this side is really quite weak, hence them losing every qualifier thus far. There’s still not much between the two sides but Kazakhstan U21 have looked good enough to keep Latvia U21 out today, in my opinion. Barring a tactical meltdown, I find a lot of value in taking under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news
International Friendlies:
Japan – Makino, Miyaichi, and Fujimoto are absent.
Australia – Valeri, Herd, McDonald, Williams, and Kewell are absent.
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Scotland U21 – Mackay-Steven, Ness, G.Adam, and Ridgers are absent.
Russia U21 – Shatov, U.Kirillov, and Kanunnikov are absent. Tcheryshev will feature.
Brazilian Serie A:
Fluminense – Valencia, Leandro Euzebio, Anderson, Fred, Deco, and Marcos Junior are absent. Thiago Neves and Gum return.
Santos – Neymar, Arouca, Leo, Ganso, Henrique, Edu Dracena, Miralles, Galhardo, Alison, Paulo Henrique, and Fucile are absent.
Palmeiras – Barcos, Daniel Carvalho, Fernandinho, Marcos Assuncao, Patrik, Roman, and Wesley are absent. Leandro may debutise.
Sport Recife – Rithely, Naldinho, Cicinho, Edcarlos, Reinaldo, and Renan Teixeira are absent. Willian Rocha, Rivaldo, and Gilberto return.