TFT Issue 508!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Ok, the previews are up now – sorry for the delay!
Featured game
Fenerbahce vs Mersin Idmanyurdu – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Super Lig encounter between heavyweights Fenerbahce and Mersin Idmanyurdu.
Fenerbahce have had a poor campaign thus far, at least based on their displays. The quality of their players is not so much in question, especially now that they’ve signed box-to-box midfielder Meireles. However, the manager choosing to drop Alex and the lack of finesse from this side has left me cold as far as Fenerbahce go. Still, signing Meireles should really be the answer as his tenacity to win the ball back and determination to move forward at all times becomes infectious to his team-mates, based on what he’s demonstrated at all of his previous clubs. That should allow the likes of Alex, Stoch, Krasic, and Erkin Caner to damage their opponents whilst the impressive Kuyt and Sow score the goals. Krasic is absent today, as it happens, but Fenerbahce have enough attacking talent to cope without him. Defensively, Fenerbahce aren’t as bad as some of their contemporaries but they’re still vulnerable at the back and will concede goals against sides that attack them properly.
That is what I expect Mersin Idmanyurdu to do, to be honest. That’s what they’ve done for the whole of their Super Lig campaign thus far and despite the negative outcomes and the assurances of Saglam that a different tactical approach will be used, it’s hard to envision just what that will entail as there’s no real alternative when you weigh up their squad. Why shouldn’t this side attack and score goals? It’s what they do best! Their defending is atrocious, yes, but so is most sides’ defending in Turkey. In Ozukwo and former Fenerbahce hitman Nobre, they have two strikers that can and will score goals, particularly the latter, and I’m sure he’d enjoy doing it against his old club too! Signing Argentinian wide-man Culio was a massive coup for them pre-season as he’s already demonstrated his talents in every league he’s been in. Bringing Yattara back from the Middle East was a great move too – he had some amazing games in Turkey prior to his departure and his strength gives them further options in midfield. They will miss Andre Moritz this season, it’s true, but that’d be more relevant here if I expected them to win the game, which I don’t. All I want from Mersin Idmanyurdu is to attack and hopefully score at least once here; I expect Fenerbahce to do the rest. After all, this Mersin Idmanyurdu defence has already shipped six goals in three games and that’s despite having experienced Stepanov at the heart of it!
Either way, I do like the look of over 2.5 goals today. I think both sides are susceptible enough to concede dubious goals whilst both possess a strong attack. Fenerbahce should win the game, if you’re betting in-play, but taking over 2.5 goals is my preferred choice at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional games
Germinal Beerschot vs Standard de Liege – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
As far as betting in Belgium goes, there are few harder trips than the one to Antwerp to face Germina. I’ve never been able to explain why but few sides get results here. Admittedly, Germinal are a fairly well supported club and they’ve been around a long time so that mentality of a smaller club playing at home may give them a slight advantage here, just as it does for Kortrijk in their games. Much like Kortrijk, Germinal enjoy hopelessly attacking sides that are better than they are but unlike Kortrijk, Germinal lack the defensive composure to keep them out.
Despite a relatively poor campaign last season with flashes of brilliance, Germinal only lost once home game, which speaks volumes, really. They’re not the better side today but better sides than Standard have failed to win here in the past so anything is possible as far as the 1×2 market goes. This is a goalscoring side, though – Coulibaly is a real handful and the fact that they’ve signed Veselinovic from Anderlecht to vy with Dayan and Mununga for a starting place shows how seriously Koster is taking his new job following an unfortunate stint with Club Brugge. The heartbeat of this team is Argentinian midfielder Losada, though, who scores a lot of goals and makes a lot of chances. If he plays well, this Germinal side is capable of anything.
Still, they’re a mess defensively against the right opponents and the departure of Kagelmacher in the middle of last season was the reason that their form nose-dived. That’s still evident now and I think that Standard can take advantage of that today. Not many defences have managed to hold this budding attack of Ogunjimi/Ezekiel being supported by Gonzalez, Ajdarevic, Buyens, and Seijas. They look really good together, far sooner than I thought they would, to be honest. Jans has done well to integrate Ajdarevic into the side and when Ogunjimi is 100% settled, I do feel that we’ll see a better Standard de Liege. However, their main strength last season was keeping sides out and they’re just not doing that this season. The departure of Felipe pre-season and the continued absence of Kanu with Kawashima replacing Bolat between the sticks has meant a major defensive upheaval with van Damme moving to centre-back. The latter part of this puzzle is not a problem but the rest of it is as Bolat is a better goalkeeper but is reaping the rewards of crying about wanting to leave. This defence is no longer safe and the fact that they’ve conceded eight goals in four games should spell that out clearly enough. However, they’re scoring a lot of goals too – fourteen in four games now – so they should be able to damage their hosts today.
Again, I can’t pick a winner but over 2.5 goals looks decent enough at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Coritiba vs Santos – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Some people suffer the illusion that all Brazilian football is samba and that’s not really the case. Admittedly, they do take longer to score goals than most leagues as it seems like they want to either score a spectacular goal or to walk the ball into the net in typical Brazilian style. However, this is not the case for the two sides playing today – Coritiba and Santos. These two sides fully embrace the idea of playing samba football and both sides score and concede goals for fun. On Santos’ side, you’ve got Neymar destroying defences, which is more than enough to cause problems here. For Coritiba, you’ve got Rafinha, Everton Ribeiro, and especially old hand Lincoln in midfield to do the damage whilst Everton Costa and Anderson Aquino are expected to score the goals in Keirrison’s continued absence.
Coritiba love to score goals and they do it best on counter-attacks, which we should see plenty of here as Santos will attack them. I was tempted to take Santos to beat them but I don’t know how they’ll fare now that Ganso is set to leave for bitter rivals Sao Paulo and with Felipe Anderson suspended today. I wholly expect Santos to score at least once against a horrendous Coritiba defence but their hosts don’t fall away when they play against a big side; they come to life.
With the above in mind, I wouldn’t dare get involved on the 1×2 sides of things but I’d quite happily wade into over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Slaven Koprivnica vs Rijeka – home win at 4/5.
Barring Dinamo Zagreb, I think it’s fair to have the opinion that Slaven Koprivnica are the best home side in Croatia. Even Hajduk’s formidable status in home games has slipped away over the past couple of years although their ability to win away from home tends to see them finishing above Slaven in the Prva Liga. This is a very tough away game for every side, though, and Slaven tend to keep it that way for a reason.
Not only do Slaven play good football and take their chances well but they keep sides out well too. They’re a very composed side in general. They’ve played three Prva Liga home games this season and one UEFA Europa League game here and they’ve won all four of them without much difficulty. They caused Athletic Bilbao so many problems in their home game; I was really impressed to see that. Only a surprising start from Lokomotiva Zagreb in their last home game nearly caused an upset but Slaven still won that encounter 3-2. Zadar’s tenacity in their previous game led to them having more corners than Slaven but Slaven still won 2-0. You know what I mean? This side is more than capable of handling most opponents that they face and scoring goals where most Prva Liga sides won’t. They don’t look concerned with any situation. The absence of Rak in midfield today is far from ideal but the signing of veteran forward Vugrinec has inspired the whole team and I expect them to play the same way as usual today and hopefully make it count too. Gregurina and Batarelo look decent enough to cause problems for their opponents in Rak’s absence anyway so I expect Slaven to produce their typical home game here.
Rijeka are similar to Slaven in the sense that they’re very comfortable at home but susceptible on the road. That said, Slaven look much more accomplished on the road than Rijeka do this season with Rijeka really struggling to attack. It surprises me that Scoria’s team is so poor in the final third when he himself was a good striker back in the day. Their midfield looks solid enough now that they’ve brought in Vranjes to sit in front of the back four, despite his journeyman-esque traits over the past few years. He should have had a better career than he did, in my view. His presence allows Weitzer, Kreilach, and Mujanovic the freedom to roam forward more, which is beneficial. Despite their experience in defence, they look slow against good attacks and that has cost them three points in each tough away game that they’ve had this season. They lost 2-0 at Inter Zapresic and 2-0 at Split, which isn’t surprising as their attacks are futile and their defence is slow. To be blunt, I expect more of the same today.
As long as Slaven don’t baulk without Rak, we really should see a home win at 4/5.
Verdict: Slaven Koprivnica to win at 4/5.
AB Copenhagen vs Viborg – away win at evens.
AB Copenhagen’s ability to turn up in the big games and fail against everyone else reminds me a lot of Liverpool in England, to be honest, and that’s not designed to offend anyone! Seriously, how does this happen? I think AB Copenhagen will be relegated this season, as I said pre-season, and yet they went to promotion hopefuls Vejle-Kolding a week or two ago and won! Mix that up with the fact that they’ve lost all four home games this season and you see why I am baffled by their ability to turn up for one game and not for others. Quality-wise, this side is very short now that they’ve become a struggling selling club. There are some talented youngsters here but the average age of this squad is too young to do well consistently and I think this big club may finally wave farewell to Division 1 barring a miracle this season as they lack the key players in each area that they need to survive.
Visitors Viborg look good, however. They smashed struggling HB Koge 5-0 last match, which takes them to two consecutive wins now. A forward like Dalgaard and a midfield containing Sarr and Pimpong is good enough to be in the Superligaen, for my money. The rest of their squad is the reason behind them not currently being in the Superligaen but that triangle makes Viborg very hard to play against. Arrieta adds plenty of skill but is yet to discover that lethal touch in front of goal which is a shame as that’d really help Viborg’s promotion push. Defensively, Viborg are nowhere near as good as they used to be and that shows, unfortunately. I will be concerned for them when they take on HB Koge away from home later in the season when HB Koge’s form has picked up and they start demonstrating what they’re actually capable of. That said, the trips to Lyngby and Vejle-Kolding could be and should be even harder for Viborg to handle. Still, that’s something to consider for the whole season rather than today. For today, they’re confident and they’re scoring goals whilst their hosts are conceding them, not scoring them, and are playing badly on a regular basis. Forward Hande is out too, which isn’t ideal!
Therefore, I find value on the away win at evens, irrespective of the fact that AB’s captain Lykke returns today.
Verdict: Viborg to win at evens.
Vejle-Kolding vs Vestjaelland – home win at 4/5.
Vejle-Kolding really should be winning this one as long as they don’t deliver a display like they did against AB Copenhagen. They’ve bounced back well, winning two consecutive away games since then, though, and I expect them to do well today. They’ve signed Nicolaj Agger from Brondby and Estonian hotshot Kaimer Saag pre-season, which makes their attack even more dangerous, especially with emerging youngster Thychosen playing well right now. They’re a very exciting to watch, Vejle-Kolding, and I expect them to score a lot of goals this season, especially with Saag leading their line. Defensively, there are still question marks but against a side like Vestjaelland, I am not too concerned. Vestjaelland are notorious for not scoring enough goals away from home and given that they ship a number of them, I think that they’re in for a tough game today.
For me, the home win is appealing at 4/5.
Verdict: Vejle-Kolding to win at 4/5.
SSC Napoli vs Parma – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Napoli enter this game with no injury concerns and two wins under their belt. What is boss Mazzarri’s assessment of their displays? He’s happy that they’ve won but they’re too complacent when they take the lead! Haha! I think I love this guy! You have to be insatiable to be successful in any business but this guy epitomises that. They’ve just sold one of their best attackers Lavezzi and replaced him with someone who is good, but not as good – Pandev – and he’s not delighted about them winning the horrible away game at Palermo and beating a rather impressive Fiorentina side at home?! I can see his point to a certain degree but I think he should credit his players a bit more. They’ve done well in attack and I expect more of the same from them today, basically, especially with Hamsik and Cavani in fine form. Signing hotshot Insigne from Pescara was a stroke of genius, too – this guy looks a real one for the future. Mazzarri is doing his best to give Hamsik all the protection by signing most of Switzerland’s midfielders to protect him with Behrami now joining his compatriots Dzemaili and Inler in Naples. Defensively, there are too many crazies for me to be completely happy with them but they work well enough together and I fancy them to score a few today.
I took Parma to win their last game but that was partially due to the lack of quality of their opponents. I do like what Parma have done pre-season with the signing of Amauri and the signing of Ninis particularly standing out for me. However, the absence of Amauri is a problem today, whereas it wasn’t as big a problem against minnows Chievo Verona. Pabon has a lot of potential up front but he needs a big target man to work with and Parma don’t have that today, which is dangerous. There’s plenty of experience and creativity in midfield but this side looks a bit lazy for my liking, which is often especially the case on the road for Parma. If they’re lazy then they’ll lose games as they lack the quality that they once had. Defensively, I doubt they’ll keep many clean sheets this season away from home and I especially doubt that today against a vastly superior Napoli side. Parma bring confidence into this game following their win against Chievo but I don’t see them having enough to handle Napoli today.
For me, taking Napoli to beat the -1 Asian Handicap is well worth a flutter at evens, even with former Napoli boss Donadoni in charge of Parma.
Verdict: SSC Napoli to win with the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Fiorentina vs Catania – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
There are a lot of new faces in this Fiorentina side since Montella took over for varying reasons but I think that they’ve done well thus far. They’ve shown great determination and showed great character at Napoli when they fell behind. They’re going to be a lot more dubious at the back for a period of time whilst they get Savic and Gonzalo Rodriguez used to Serie A now that Nastasic has moved on. Montella has brought in some excellent midfielders to aid their attacking game, though, which they really needed to do. Bringing in Llama, Pizarro, Cuadrado, Matias Fernandez, Aquilani, and Borja Valero to help compensate for the departures of Vargas, Montolivo, Lazzari, and Behrami makes perfect sense to me. You can see where Montella wants to take this team, basically, as all the players he signed are used to playing attacking football and scoring goals. This should help take the pressure off wonderkid Jovetic as he used to carry this team for pretty much the whole season. I like their attack a lot, actually. Bringing back Luca Toni was a great move as he’s an extremely valuable “Plan B” for long balls if things aren’t going well. In addition to that, promising Swiss striker Seferovic and the two nutters Ljajic and El Hamdaoui are both capable players if they stop spitting their dummies out.
Montella has taken a gamble here with some of his signings but overall, this Fiorentina side looks a lot more hard-working than before under him. They want to attack and score goals and I believe we’ll see more and more of that as the season progresses.
How will Catania far here in Florence, I wonder? They’re up against their old boss Montella, who made them a very potent side last season and they’ve continued that well under Maran. You’d think that losing Maxi Lopez would have hurt them more than it has but the Sicilians are a resilient bunch and both Gomez and Bergessio make for a potent duo up front. There’s always been a strong Argentinian presence in this Catania side and thus it’s no surprise that they play like a leading Argentinian team; plenty of flair and firepower, dubious defending, and lots of unnecessary red cards! At times, the attack of this Catania side is frightening though – Barrientos, Castro, Izco, Almiron all supporting Gomez and Bergessio! They’re a much better side than most people think although their defending is samba to say the least – well, on the road anyway. They’re normally a shade more cautious on their own turf.
I’ve no idea about how successful they can be against Montella today, though. He knows this Catania side so well. I still think that they have enough talent to score at least once against a disjointed Fiorentina side. However, their hosts are battling well and look dangerous themselves in the final third so rather than wade into the labyrinth of the 1×2 market, I’d much rather roll with over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
AS Roma vs Bologna – over 3 goals at 4/5.
If there is to be a shock today then this has a very good chance of being it, in my view.
Generally speaking, Bologna do not travel well. Indeed, most consider them to be cannon fodder for the heavyweights of Serie A and perhaps that’ll prove to be the case today – who knows? I wouldn’t protest with that outcome so long as Roma score four goals!
However, I very much doubt that they will batter Bologna unless they make ridiculous mistakes like they did against AC Milan lately. I still cannot believe that AC Milan won that game 3-1 when they were outplayed for almost the entire game by a very impressive Bologna side. Bologna could and should have scored three goals themselves and I think that we’ll see them doing that on a much more regular basis now that they’ve signed hitman Gilardino to score their goals. Putting him up front with Acqufresca, Diamanti, or Gabbiadini makes this Bologna side a lot more dangerous in the final third than most expect them to be. They will miss Ramirez in midfield this season, not to mention Mudingayi, but they pass the ball well enough to create plenty of chances and I expect that to continue, even without their influential playmaker and holding midfielder. Defensively, they do bother me, though, I have to confess. Agilardi dropped the ball under almost no pressure against AC Milan, which led to Pazzini’s second goal. His third was a deflected shot as Bologna capitulated. They seem to have lost their composure at the back and that will really damage them this season as they get most of their points at home by winning to nil.
Can Roma exploit Bologna’s defensive problems? Abso-fucking-lutely! Zeman’s side just won at Internazionale; they’ll be on top of the world! There’s no Osvaldo for the hosts today but Totti, Destro, Lamela, Pjanic, Marquinho, and even promising Uruguayan striker Lopez look good enough to score goals here. This Roma side is all about scoring goals and they’re starting to do that very well. Defensively, they’re still very much a concern and that should be evident today with leader De Rossi out as well as holding midfielder Bradley. If Burdisso and Castan are to be the heart of the Roma defence then they’re going to concede a lot of goals this season, in a nutshell. They’ll score plenty too, though, and that makes me very interested in taking Roma with overs more often than not.
As far as surprises go, though, I think Bologna could get a result here. Roma tend to get complacent after a good win and Bologna are no mugs. They can and should score goals here against Roma although their hosts will take the same approach. Bluntly, I would not touch the 1×2 market but I do like over 3 goals at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 4/5.
Groningen vs Vitesse Arnhem – away win with draw no bet at 9/10.
Quality-wise, I’d be lying if I said that I thought Vitesse were streets ahead of Groningen because they’re not – yet. They will be in due course if the money keeps flowing into the club but for now, the difference is marginal.
Don’t buy into this shit about Groningen being so far down the table. Yes, they’re not playing well – that’s partially why I am going against them today – but no trip to the Eurborg is ever easy. Uruguayan forward Teixeira looks very good indeed and if he gets the right service then he will score goals. Still, Maaskant has little else to work with, hence him drafting in Kirm from his former club Wisla Krakow. Losing Tadic and Andersson has damaged their creativity a lot and it really shows. Groningen’s problem is keeping sides out so not scoring goals naturally gives them an awful lot of problems, hence their miserly results thus far.
Vitesse could and should profit from that, really. They’re a youthful side so it’s hard for me to stick my neck on the chopping block and say that they’re definitely going to be composed enough to get a result here because they may produce one of their many unexpected and unwelcome away displays from last season where they did nothing in the final third, especially with star striker Bony a doubt today. Still, Ibarra is looking good and Reis is looking deadly so they should have enough in the tank to at least score here and realistically speaking, if they score and lose against this out-of-sorts Groningen side then they’re doing something very wrong. They’ve brought back former legend Theo Janssen, who is arguably the best set piece taker in the Netherlands, French talent Gael Kakuta, and old hand Cziommer to help out the talented van Ginkel so this midfield looks strong enough to cope with whatever Groningen have in store for them today. Defensively, they’re getting better although there is still work to be done. Big sides have no trouble scoring against them but the smaller sides do so you can see the progress that has been made.
All in all, though, I don’t think there’s much chance of Vitesse losing this one. They’ve got more than enough talent up front to win it, too, so the away win with draw no bet cover sits well with me at 9/10.
Verdict: Vitesse Arnhem to win with draw no bet at 9/10.
CSKA Moscow vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
I don’t like betting on CSKA’s games, I must admit. This horrible side either plays brilliantly or terribly and unfortunately they tend to go against whatever I think they’ll do!
Still, I like the odds of over 2.5 goals here. CSKA’s attack still misses Doumbia but pacey Musa has done well in his stead. Importantly, CSKA’s midfield looks a lot more mobile and dangerous now that Swedish duo Wernbloom and Elm have joined them. This gives Honda more room to dictate the tempo whilst Dzagoev supports Musa and Tosic and Gonzalez provide the wide threat – well, when there is any. CSKA don’t play a wide enough game, all things considered – they’ve got one of the quickest players in Russia on their left wing and one of the best crosses/set piece takers in Russia on the other side and they just play through the middle! Obviously Cauna can slot into this midfield too but overall, it looks good to me. Their defence is extremely strong and familiar with one another and will deal with aerial threats with no problem at all. Pace, though – they can’t handle that.
Guess what this new-look Alaniya side has a lot of? Yep – pace. Big Tamas Priskin is their target man but their danger man is Danilo Neco, who is actually the leading goalscorer in Russia right now with six goals in seven games. I’ve been struck by how fearlessly and how dangerously Alaniya are attacking sides this season, to be honest. They’ve done it really well and are scoring goals for fun too. They move the ball well and sides find it hard to deal with that here. Semberas is in their ranks; he knows the CSKA side well for obvious reasons so perhaps Alaniya can cause a surprise against their dreary hosts today. Still, with their defence not keen to play unless they concede goals, I find it hard to envision them winning the game without an outstanding display, especially with regular Grigorjev missing the return to face the club that raised him.
I do expect goals here, though. As long as CSKA actually attack with some purpose here then this game should clear 2.5 goals easily enough at 4/5. If CSKA don’t do that then we’re most likely to witness another horrendous 1-0.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Espanyol vs Athletic Club de Bilbao – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Athletic never like a trip to the Catalan region because the rivarly between the Catalans and the Basques and their desire to be seperate from Spain tends to inspire the home side to a win, whether it’s Barcelona or Espanyol that they’re facing. I expect more of the same today.
Espanyol are a very solid and dependable home side, generally speaking. They’ve not had much joy so far this season, however, losing in bizarre fashion against Real Zaragoza for the second season in a row. Worryingly, it’s in defence where Espanyol are struggling the most, which used to be one of their strongest areas. I guess you could say that they’re missing Didac Vila a bit more than anyone thought they would as the rest of their defence has remained entact. Still, three straight defeats will affect their confidence, which is the sole reason that I’ve not taken the home win today. They’ve got an exciting attack, as ever, however. They’ve drafted in veteran winger Simao to help Verdu in creating chances. Coutinho’s return to Internazionale isn’t ideal but it’s time for Albin to step up to the plate and help the afore-mentioned out anyway. I’m concerned about their strikers, though. Stuani, Garcia, Longo – they’re either not good enough, not fit often enough, or aren’t consistent enough for my liking. They need an Uche or a Pandiani and they don’t have that this season, which will hurt them. They’re very much an over 2.5 goals side right now, though, and I’m hoping to capitalise on that today.
Athletic are the kings of over 2.5 goals in Spain, though. They’re capable of conceding against anyone and are capable of scoring against anyone. I’ve not seen a defence yet that can handle Susaeta, Ander Herrera, and Iker Muniain running at them. Athletic still concern me without Llorente leading the line despite Aduriz’s ability to score goals, though. That said, Llorente is on the bench today so perhaps he’s ready to wear the shirt again. Ander Herrera is not playing in today’s game though, which is starting to worry me as Bielsa seems to be losing patience with what is essentially a very important member of Athletic’s attack. De Marcos has come on leaps and bounds since his move from Alaves, though, and Iturraspe is maturing as each game goes by so this midfield looks very strong. It’s nice to see how easily Isma Lopez has blended into the side, too – he’ll be very useful this season if he stays fit. Defensively, Athletic always concede goals and they probably will today too. Their best defender Amorebieta is back but won’t be match fit for obvious reasons. He’s alongside holding midfielder(!) Gurpegi at the heart of the defence, which says enough, really.
For me, this game should go over 2.5 goals at 10/11, one way or another.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
People can praise Falcao all they want to but it’s Simeone that is the driving force behind Atletico Madrid. I personally think that Falcao is the most natural and in-form striker on the planet right now but do remember that it’s Simeone’s tactics that get him the ball in the positions that he likes before he takes those chances. Simeone is making this side play good football on a consistent basis, which is something Atletico never used to have. Arda Turan and Cristian Rodriguez are lightning on the flanks and possess bags of skill. Emre, Tiago, and Raul Garcia can dictate from the centre of the park and their defence actually looks good for a change. There’s plenty of physical presence and organisation at the back for a Spanish side and I think that they’re in for a very good season if things continue as they are because they players are visibly running themselves into the ground for Simeone in every single game. This is a very strong Atletico side because of Simeone!
Rayo Vallecano lost their best player Michu pre-season. They’re a club that is engineered to cope when they lose big players and they’ve looked good in doing so this season. They’ve not had what I would call a “proper” threat yet, though. Today they have that problem and it’s one that I don’t think they can handle. Rayo still play a nice passing game but they’ve no top players to finish those chances and they do concede goals heavily against good sides, more often than not. They lost 3-1 here last season as well as losing 5-2 at Sevilla, 4-1 at Valencia, 4-2 at Malaga, 4-0 at Barcelona, and 6-2 at Real Madrid. The pattern is very conclusive, I’m afraid – Rayo concede too many goals in situations like these and if they do that here then they’ll lose comfortably.
I wouldn’t take Atletico Madrid without a -1 Asian Handicap in the past but Simeone has done so much good work that I feel compelled to do so today. I don’t see how Rayo will cope with them so the -1.5 handicap appeals to me at evens.
Verdict: Atletico Madrid to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Djurgarden vs AIK Solna – both sides to score at 5/6.
It’s derby day in Stockholm and for the first time in a while, Djurgarden look strong enough to match AIK. AIK still have the better players on paper and a much stronger defence but Djurgarden have plenty of offensive weapons in Hamalainen, Sjolund, and Rajalsko whilst Fejzullahu and Keene to the damage up front. It’s a very potent combination that few sides have been able to handle this season and I think that even AIK’s strong defence will find it hard to handle them here. They’ve bagged eleven goals over their last three games in all competitions and Fejzullahu has bagged five of them, just to give you an idea of how much he’s improved their already strong attack. We all know that Djurgarden can’t defend so I always expect them to concede against anyone at any time. The derby with AIK is no exception, really. AIK have also bolstered their attack, too, no doubt in preparation for the UEFA Europa League. Instead of Danielsson and Borges dictating the outcome of AIK’s attacks, they’ve now got the pace and skill of Goitom, the finesse of former hero Bangura, and the promise of Ghanian hitman Karikari, not to mention the massive potential of Quaison. I never thought I’d say this but this AIK attack is actually exciting, for a change!! I wouldn’t dream of picking a winner here but taking both sides to score appeals to me a lot at 5/6.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
IFK Goteborg vs Elfsborg Boras – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
It’s yet another derby in Sweden as the west coast giants lock horns in Goteborg. This should be a massive game for IFK as they’ve got absolutely nothing else to play for and they’d love to upset their rivals Elfsborg. The problem with IFK this season is that they’ve only played well when they’ve felt like it. How a side goes from beating Mjallby 4-2 at home to losing 3-0 at Kalmar is beyond me, really, which is why the supporters confonted the team/manager in training lately to voice their frustrations. I’ll never understand how IFK aren’t in the title race this season because on paper, they’re one of the strongest sides in the Allsvenskan, if not the strongest side! Hysen, Soder, and Stiller are good up front and their midfield is outstanding with Farnerud in front of the back four allowing Gerzic, Selakovic, and Daniel Sobralense to do the damage. They’ve brought back centre-back Bjarsmyr to sort out their defence but it’s too little, too late, in my view. This side lacks confidence at the back and struggles to cope with obstacles mentally despite being very talented. I’m taking a bit of a gamble today that they’ll show up in this derby because the usual IFK display would see them lose this game 0-1 or 0-2.
Still, Elfsborg don’t like playing on natural turf, especially not against their rivals. They’ve not won here in the Allsvenskan since 2003 although with IFK so hit-and-miss right now, this is arguably their best chance to do so. Elm and Nilsson return for this game and as Elfsborg’s best strikers, that’s really a rather useful thing! Quite how IFK will handle Svensson, Hult, Claesson, Hiljemark, Larsson, and Ishizaki is beyond me, whichever combination is played. There’s only so much that Farnerud can do; Elfsborg have other ways of penetrating defences. Mind you, they’ve struggled a bit with confidence lately too – Helsingborg gave them a horrible first-half in Boras a few weeks ago and Syrianska made them sweat blood and tears to win 1-0 lately. Elfsborg do need the win here though and the fact is that they may well need at least two goals to get it if IFK turn it on.
To me, the window of opportunity is there in this derby for the game to go over 2.5 goals and I’m happy to take that chance at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
This one is a risky over 2.5 goals call because it involves Trabzonspor actually taking their chances, which they’ve seldom done since star striker Yilmaz left for Galatasaray. However, I’m convinced that they will because their play creates a lot of chances and their opponents don’t like defending. To me, that should be enough here.
I watched Trabzonspor’s 2-0 win against Elazigspor in the past few weeks and was amazed it was only 2-0 as Trabzonspor did them a lot of damage. They will miss Yilmaz, for sure, but they’ve done enough to cope without him, surely? They’ve brought in giant Austrian hitman Janko and they’ve got battler Vittek, Altintop, and Paulo Henrique to share the load. Sapara and Alanzinho are pulling the strings and that should be enough for Trabzonspor to score goals, especially in Trabzon. No side likes playing against them near the Black Sea and I doubt Sivasspor will enjoy it more than anyone else either. That said, Sivasspor like to cause upsets with their attacking style and perhaps they will today, especially if Trabzonspor frustrate their fans by not taking their chances again. Sivasspor had a horrible pre-season but they’ve done mostly what was expected of them so far in the current Super Lig campaign. Pedriel and Eneramo have plenty of goals in them and there’s enough support from midfield to allow them to do so. Sivasspor concede goals too easily, which is useful for us but not for them long-term. They’re not afraid of sides, though, which helps us a lot here.
As long as Trabzonspor take their chances and Sivasspor don’t suddenly baulk at the task ahead of them then I think this game will go over 2.5 goals today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Team news
Argentinian Primera Division:
Arsenal de Sarandi – Braghieri and L.Lopez are absent. D.Perez is a doubt.
Belgrano de Cordoba – Barrios and E.Gonzalez are absent. Zapata is a doubt.
Boca Juniors – Caruzzo is absent. Orion is a doubt.
Independiente – M.Benitez and Gabbarini are absent. Tuzzio, Santana, and Vargas are doubts.
Newell’s Old Boys – V.Lopez is absent. Caceres is a doubt.
San Lorenzo de Almagro – Romagnoli and Voboril are absent. Menseguez is a doubt.
Velez Sarsfield – F.Ferreyra, Copete, Cerro, and B.Ferreira are absent.
River Plate – Ponzio and Mercado are absent.
Brazilian Serie A:
Bahia – Souza, Avine, Coelho, Gabriel are absent. Fahel returns.
Figueirense – Ricardo, Heber, Abreu, Fernandes, Almir, Elsinho, and Aloisio are absent.
Coritiba – Sergio Manoel, Roberto, Keirrison, Rafinha, Jackson, Emerson, Cleiton, and Bonfim are absent. Lincoln returns.
Santos – Durval, Felipe Anderson, Henrique, Edu Dracena, Miralles, Galhardo, Paulo Henrique, Alison, and Fucile are absent. Ganso has left for Sao Paulo.
Cruzeiro – Leo, William Magrao, Fabinho, Alex Silva, Ceara, Borges, and Sandro Silva are absent. Victorino and Lucas Silva return.
Vasco da Gama – Alecsandro, Douglas, Felipe, Auremir, Carlos Alberto are absent. Jonas returns. Renato Silva may debutise. New boss – Marcelo Oliveira.
Nautico – Patric, Jean Rolt, Marlon, Ramirez, Rogerinho are absent. Dimba and Araujo return. Martinez and Kieza are doubts.
Atletico Mineiro – Leonardo Silva, Guilherme, and Jo are absent. Ronaldinho and Bernard are doubts.
Palmeiras – Fernandinho, Wesley are absent. Marcos Assuncao may return. New boss – Narciso.
Corinthians – Emerson, Chicao, Alessandro, and Jorge Henrique are absent. Guerrero, Martinez, Ramirez, Ralf, and Paulinho return.
Flamengo – Maldonado, Renato Abreu, Mattheus, and Welington are absent. Caceres and Marcos Gonzalez return.
Gremio – Bertoglio, Fabio Aurelio, Julio Cesar, and Fernando are absent. Andre Lima and Ze Roberto return.
Internacional – Fabricio, Elton, Ygor, Dagoberto, Juan, Datolo, Bolatti, Otavinho, Rafael Moura, Kleber, and Nei are absent.
Sport Recife – Diego Ivo, Magrao, Gilberto, and Reinaldo are absent. Moacir and Renato Teixeira return.
Ponte Preta – Wescley, Giancarlo, Bruno Nunes, and Gustavo are absent.
Botafogo – Marcelo Mattos, Lucas Zen, Renato, and Elkeson are absent. Seedorf is a doubt. Vitor Junior, Antonio Carlos, and Rafael Marques return.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Dulgerov and Kurdov may debutise.
Minior Pernik – Trayanov returns. Yorunkov may debutise.
Lokomotiv Sofia – P.Petkov, Y.Petkov, Dobrev, and D.Gadzhev are absent. Neutral venue – Levski Sofia’s stadium.
Etar – Beto has left.
Litex Lovech – Hosani and Kolu may debutise.
Ludogorets – No absentees.
Beroe – Goranov, Deshliev, Bozhanov, and Dzaferovic are absent.
Levski Sofia – Bashiliev, Yovov, Dimov, and Vesalov return. Ilian Yordanov may debutise.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Slaven Koprivnica – Rak and Pilipovic are absent. Saban is a doubt. Baric may debutise.
Rijeka – No absentees.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Hradec Kralove – Malinsky is absent. Klapka and Plasil are doubts. Janosik may debutise.
Zbrojovka Brno – Kaufman and Pasek are absent. Jakub Brabec may debutise.
Sigma Olomouc – Zlamal is absent.
Slovan Liberec – Fleisman and Stajner are absent. Sural is a doubt. Braznanik has left.
Danish Superligaen:
Aalborg BK – No absentees.
Randers – Kamper, van der Schaaf, and C.Sorensen are absent.
Brondby – Semou and M.Jensen return. Antipas may debutise.
AC Horsens – No news.
French Ligue 1:
Stade Rennais – No absentees.
Lorient – Autret, Sunu, and Le Lan are absent. Romao returns. Mvuemba has left. Reale and Corgnet may debutise.
Olympique Lyonnais – Gourcuff is absent. Monzon, Grenier, Lopez are doubts.
AC Ajaccio – Pierazzi returns. Mutu may debutise.
AS Nancy-Lorraine – Andre Luiz is absent.
Olympique de Marseille – Diawara and Lucas Mendes are absent. Remy and Abdallah are big doubts.
Italian Serie A:
Bologna – Krhin and Riverola are absent. Natali is a doubt.
Catania – Potenza is absent.
Chievo Verona – Paloschi and Squizzi are absent. Drame is a doubt.
Fiorentina – Della Rocca and Aquilani are absent. El Hamdaoui is a doubt.
Genoa – Rossi, Vargas, and Velazquez are absent.
Internazionale – Obi, Mudingayi, Mariga, Stankvoic, and Chivu are absent. Alvarez, Bianchetti, and Palacio are doubts.
Juventus – Padoin is absent. Pepe and Lucio are doubts.
Lazio – Brocchi, Radu, and Diakite are absent. Lulic is a doubt.
Parma – Amauri, Sansone, and Santacroce are absent. Biabiany is a doubt.
Pescara – Romagnoli, Togni, Terlizzi, and Savelloni are absent. Zanon, Pelizzoli, and Jonathas are doubts.
AS Roma – Bradley, De Rossi, Dodo, Lobont, Osvaldo, and Perrotta are absent. Balzaretti is a doubt.
Sampdoria – Da Costa, Ignacio, and Romero are absent. Pozzi is a doubt.
Siena – Dalbelo is absent. Bolzoni and Valiani are doubts.
Torino – Birsa and Suciu are absent. Barbosa is a doubt.
Udinese – Brkic and Muriel are absent. Pereyra, Mazzarani, Basta, and Heurtaux are doubts.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Heracles Almelo – Veldmate, Vejinovic, Vucijevic, and Schenkeveld are absent.
NAC Breda – Edwards, Zonneveld, and Seuntjens are absent.
FC Utrecht – Martensson and Ayoub are absent. Asare and Mulenga are doubts.
PSV Eindhoven – Pieters is absent.
AZ Alkmaar – Lam, Lewis, and Reijnen are absent.
Roda JC Kerkrade – Delorge is absent. Hupperts is a doubt.
Groningen – Kappelhof is absent.
Vitesse Arnhem – Room and van der Struijk are absent. Bony is a doubt.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Fredrikstad – Gueye and Dure are absent. Sreckovic is a doubt.
Sogndal – Badji is absent. Bakke may return.
Honefoss – Riski and Mora are absent.
Viking Stavanger – Ingelsten, Nevland, and Sigurdsson are absent.
Odd Grenland Skien – Rashani is absent. Fevang, Brenne, and Berge are doubts. Eriksen may return.
Stabaek – Aase, Cunningham, and Larsen are absent.
Sandnes Ulf – Haugsland, Westlye, B.Andersen, U.Andersen, and Raskaj are absent.
Brann Bergen – Sokolowski and Kalvenes are absent. Huseklepp and Jonsson may return.
Rosenborg BK – Braathen is absent. Dockal may return.
Valerenga Oslo – Kone and Ogude are absent. Hagen is a doubt.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Zaglebie Lubin – No news.
Widzew Lodz – Kowalski is absent.
Gornik Zabrze – Lukasiewicz, Bebenek, and Maczynski are absent.
Legia Warsaw – Wolski and Vrdoljak are absent. Ljuboja is a doubt.
Polish Liga 1:
Miedz Legnica – No news.
Sandejca Nowy Sacz – Aleksander is absent. Montero may debutise.
Stomil Olsztyn – Bucholc and Baranowski are absent.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz – Skrzynski returns. Abbott is absent.
Romanian Liga:
Petrolul Ploiesti – Grecu is absent.
Pandurii Targu Jiu – Cojoc has left.
Iasi – Jovanovic is absent.
Steaua Bucharest – No absentees.
Cz
Russian Premier League:
CSKA Moscow – Doumbia and Necid are absent.
Alaniya Vladikavkaz – Hubulov and Grigoriev are absent.
Anzhi Makhachkala – Akhmedov is absent.
FK Krasnodar – Tubic is absent.
Rostov-na-Donu – Ksulu is absent.
Dinamo Moscow – Yusupov, Kokorin, and Nekhaychik are absent.
Serbian Superliga:
Vojvodina Novi Sad – Boss Zagorcic has left. Vignjevic is the new boss. No absentees.
Jagodina – Mudrinski has left. El-Mounir, Stojanovic, and Kostic are absent.
Radnicki 1923 – Rosic is absent.
Red Star Belgrade – No absentees.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Amorebieta and Aurtenexte are absent.
Espanyol – Colotto, Baena, Garcia, and Mattioni are absent.
Deportivo La Coruna – Salomao and Laure are absent.
Granada – Yebda, Benitez, Rico, Lucena, and Gomez are absent.
Atletico Madrid – No absentees.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – Ruben is absent.
Osasuna – Arribas, Punal, and Armenteros are absent.
Real Mallorca – Arizmendi and Gimenez are absent.
Real Sociedad – Castro, Elustondo, and Zubikarai are absent. I.Martinez and Zurutuza return.
Real Zaragoza – Obradovic and Loovens are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Djugarden – No absentees.
AIK Solna – No absentees.
IFK Goteborg – Dyrestam, Barkroth, and Haglund are absent.
Elfsborg Boras – S.Larsson and Jawo are absent. Elm, Nilsson, and Augustsson return.
Turkish Super Lig:
Fenerbahce – Kesimal, Niyaz, and Krasic are absent. Sow and Korkmaz are doubts.
Mersin Idmanyurdu – Aysan and Sarp are absent.
Trabzonspor – Aydogdu is absent. Balci is a doubt.
Sivasspor – Bednar and Celikay are absent.
Eskisehirspor – Coskun is absent.
Genclerbirligi – Delibalta is absent.
Akhisar Belediye – Bikoko, Yilmaz, and Ates are absent.
Istanbul BB – Zayatte is absent.