TFT Issue 509!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Atvidaberg vs Malmo – away win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan game between Atvidaberg and Malmo.
Hosts Atvidaberg have nothing left to play for but don’t let that fool you; this side is motivated to win every game, such is the way of their manager Thomsson. However, Atvidaberg are without a win in five games now and their stamina is beginning to wane. There’s only so many times that a team can give 110% to do well before they get tired and I think that Atvidaberg have hit that point. They know that they’re safe from relegation and they’ve just lost star striker Ericsson, not to mention taking a 5-2 humping in Goteborg against Hacken. Therefore, I do feel that Atvidaberg are at least a bit more susceptible than usual. Prodell is still a threat if given the space but Atvidaberg don’t have a big squad and thus can’t rotate players so it’s hard to see who will have the energy to support him. Atvidaberg can’t defend, which is beneficial here – they will concede goals as a result. Still, they’ve only lost two home games in the Allsvenskan this season so Malmo will have to play well here, irrespective of the fact that Atvidaberg are waning a little.
Malmo will be extremely motivated to do well here following Elfsborg’s defeat at bitter rivals IFK Goteborg yesterday though. Suppose that both Hacken and Malmo win today, as I expect that they will win – there’ll then only be four points between first and fourth in the Allsvenskan table with just eight games remaining. Malmo need to win to keep up the pressure on those above them, though, and to keep pace with AIK, who looked frighteningly good against Djurgarden yesterday. Malmo have the players to do it, too. Yeah, they’ve lost Durmaz and Ranegie but they’ve still got a whole host of attacking talent. Lofqvist is expected to debutise here and he’ll add width to this team. Larsson can score the goals and Rantie will cause problems with his movement although his finishing leaves a lot to be desired. Wilton is back and Hamad is in the squad so there’s more than enough attacking power on the field in order for Malmo to win this one. Their defence is in perilous condition though, I have to admit. Daniel Andersson is still out and he’s the only reliable part of it! Malmo may well concede here – most sides do – which is why their attacking game needs to be at its best. Malmo don’t usually play well on artificial turf but they looked good at Gefle when they went there a few weeks ago, winning 0-2. This is a very different game but if Malmo apply themselves properly then they should get a positive result.
You can take over 2.5 goals if you find it safer; I wouldn’t blame you. Atvidaberg have scored lots of goals this season, after all. I just think that Malmo will have that extra quality and experience that Atvidaberg just don’t have right now and that could prove to be pivotal at this stage of the season. Thus, my call is for Malmo to win the game at evens.
Verdict: Malmo to win at evens.
Additional games
Inter Turku vs TPS Turku – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
This derby doesn’t often go over 2.5 goals but given the magnitude of the encounter and the fact that TPS won the last one 4-1 a few weeks ago, I fancy an explosive one today.
Let’s be realistic here; TPS have to win the game or their title aspirations will suffer a heavy blow. It’s Inter Turku who can afford to not win this game as they’re four points clear of a HJK side that are proving to be very hit-and-miss right now. As I mentioned in my last preview of a TPS game, they’ve lost playmaker Kolehmainen and that’s a huge blow to their attempts to win the Veikkausliiga. Heroically, they’ve managed to loan back club hero Roope Riski until the end of the season, who scored just a few minutes into his second “debut” for TPS in their 1-3 win at KuPS. He’ll aid their attack massively, especially with Aaritalo and Ristola alongside him! Pennanen now has a big task for TPS with Kolehmainen having left and he’s had a good enough season to do it. In the Turku derby, though? They need all of their best players and the fact is that Kolehmainen was probably their best player so I do think that Inter Turku may shade this one today. Still, Inter have problems of their own with absentees and they’re certainly nowhere near as reliable as their neighbours are when it comes to defending. That said, they are more reliable than their neighbours when it comes to scoring goals as Sirbiladze, Lehtonen, Ojala, Paajanen, and Kauko are very capable attacking players. Defensively, they’re susceptible, though – especially Aho up against the strength of someone like Aaritalo.
The above makes me think that we’re in for over 2.5 goals here, simply put. I think there’s way too much riding on this game for it to simply fade into the usual under 2.5 goals scoreline, hence my selection.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Vaslui vs Turnu Severin – home win with -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Eh, there’s not much more to write other than that there’s a pretty big quality gap between these two sides. Vaslui are one of the more dominant Romanian sides at home whereas Turnu Severin are arguably the worst side in the division. My sole concern over Vaslui is their application as they can become a little lazy/complacent when facing a side that they should easily beat. However, with the news that Turnu Severin haven’t trained for part of last week due to striking over unpaid wages, it’s hard to see them being good enough to prevent Vaslui from ripping them apart today. The Turnu Severin players have not been paid for two months now and if Vaslui apply themselves correctly then they should record a 2-0 or 3-0 win today, hence my selection of the -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Verdict: Vaslui to beat the -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Gefle vs BK Hacken Goteborg – away win at 10/11.
I like this one more than I should, really. After all, I really don’t like going against Gefle on their own turf.
However, Hacken are actually in the battle for the title and they must win here; it’s as simple as that. They’re going to have to handle unfamiliar artificial turf today in order to win the game but I genuinely believe that they will and I’ll explain why.
Gefle are good at home because they’re well-organised, they sit back, and they frustrate sides. However, they’re not safe from relegation – yet – so they need to push out and get something against Hacken. It’s unlikely that Orebro and GAIS can claw their way out of the automatic drop zone but Gefle occupy the play-off place and that’s far from ideal. No side has scored less goals in the Allsvenskan than Gefle, just to give you an idea of how bad they are attacking. They can generally only score from set pieces and their collection of failed Djurgarden players just don’t seem to have the ability to do damage to their opponents. Pushing out means that they concede goals, though, and if they do that here then they’ll be ripped apart by a rampant Hacken side. Hacken can’t defend but they can counter-attack in deadly fashion. Gefle miss essential defender Mard and will most likely miss full-back Portin too. Given that defence is their strongest area, it’s hard to envision the scenario whereby Gefle do well here.
Hacken, though – they’ve got so much pace and power on counter-attacks that it’s scary at times. Makondele, Waris, and Williams are all in that mould, which makes Hacken’s attack largely unplayable. Even new striker Mohammed is in that vein! With Ericsson pulling the strings, Hacken are flourishing and have now won four consecutive games in all competitions, scoring fourteen goals along the way. They won at Atvidaberg on artificial turf during that time and stuffed giants Elfsborg 4-2 along the way so their confidence is sky-high right now. They still can’t defend for shit, to be brutally honest, but they have an awful lot of firepower and I just don’t see how a Gefle defence missing half of its regulars will cope with them today, even on artifcial turf.
Gefle may well score today but I’ll be surprised if Hacken don’t beat them given the momentum that they have and the firepower that they possess. For me, there’s value on the away win at 10/11.
Verdict: BK Hacken Goteborg to win at 10/11.
Team news
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Tromso – Sahlman is absent. Nystrom and Johansen return.
Lillestrom – Gulbrandsen returns. Andersson is a doubt.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
GKS Belchatow – Nowak is absent. Wronski is a doubt.
Lech Poznan – Reiss and Djurdjevic are absent.
Romanian Liga:
Universitatea Cluj – Mendy is absent. Firtulescu has left.
Astra Giurgiu – Di Stefano is absent. Curelea may debutise.
Vaslui – No absentees.
Turnu Severin – No absentees.
Russian Premier League:
Mordovia Saransk – Yurchenko is absent.
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod – Buyvalov is absent.
Amkar’ Perm – Rebko, Peev, and Grishin are absent.
Krylya Sovetov Samara – Rams is absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Valladolid – No absentees.
Real Betis Balompie – Mario, Perez, and Castro are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Gefle – Mard is absent. Portin is a doubt.
BK Hacken Goteborg – Arkivou returns.
Atvidaberg – No news.
Malmo FF – Vinzents, D.Andersson, Pekalski, Stenstrom, and Azinovic are absent. Thern is a big doubt. Lofqvist will debutise.