TFT Issue 51!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Austria Lustenau vs Admira Wacker – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Liga 1 game in Austria between Austria Lustenau and Admira Wacker. Both sides are strong sides in the division and you could be forgiven for expecting a high-scoring affair here with that in mind but I think we’ll see otherwise tonight.
Austria Lustenau have the home form of a promotion candidate and the away form of a lower mid-table side so it’s not a big surprise to see them falling further and further behind league leaders Admira Wacker and second-placed SCR Altach. Austria Lustenau are a nightmare to play away from home due to their solid defence that averages conceding less than a goal per home game. Their attack is decent with an average of scoring nearly two goals per home game but considering where they are, I think it should be better – bear in mind that their lack of goalscoring ability is what has affected them especially away from home this season. They’ve stuttered and stumbled a bit since returning from the winter break with a 2-1 win against relegation-threatened Gratkorn and a 1-1 draw at relegation-threatened Hartberg which I feel is partially due to being rusty. However, the reason I expect them to struggle tonight isn’t their rustiness, which should have gone by now anyway – it’s their absences. For this game, Austria Lustenau miss their two best strikers Egharevba and Roth, leaving them with just Krajic and youngster Honeck in attack, neither of which are good enough to be playing against such a good opponent, in my view. In addition to the above, they also miss midfielder Karatay, which further damages their hopes of upsetting the league leaders tonight. Austria Lustenau beat Admira Wacker 2-1 at home back in October, which amusingly started a five-game run of consecutive 2-1 home wins in Liga 1 for the hosts. However, I’d be surprised to see that tonight as I just don’t see where their goals are going to come from.
You might then think that it’s worth Admira Wacker to win this game and I’d agree with that to a point because they’re still the superior of these two sides, irrespective of which players are fielded. However, Admira Wacker have problems of their own with star striker and leading goalscorer Sulimani absent. The likes of Jezek and Hanikel can still provide effective attacking options for Admira Wacker but they’re a lot less potent without Sulimani and against a stout defensive unit like Austria Lustenau, you have to expect them to struggle here, although admittedly they have done well since the winter break, winning 0-6 at Gratkorn, winning 3-1 against Hartberg, and winning 0-1 at Austria Lustenau’s bitter rivals Lustenau last match. However, Sulimani’s yellow card in the win at Lustenau ironically means that he misses his club’s following trip to Lustenau and I think Admira Wacker would much prefer to have had it the other way around. They’re stuck with it, though, and despite still being the superior of these two sides, I don’t think they’ll be able to do much against a solid Austria Lustenau defence tonight.
If you take Sulimani’s nine goals scored away from home this season for Admira Wacker then they possess a similar record to Austria Lustenau’s home record by averaging scoring just less than two goals per game and conceding just over a goal per away game. With so many important attacking players absent for both sides today and the two sides locking horns at a venue that favours Austria Lustenau, I think the superiority of Admira Wacker disappears and we then see a much more even game. This game has a habit of going under 2.5 goals with three out of the last five head-to-heads between these two sides having gone under 2.5 goals and two out of the last three meetings between these two sides in Lustenau having gone under 2.5 goals. Therefore, my call is to oppose the statistics of Liga 1 tonight by backing under 2.5 goals at decent odds of evens.
Team news – Austria Lustenau miss Roth, Karatay, and Egharevba whereas Admira Wacker miss Sulimani and Morgenthaler.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Additional game(s)
Gaz Metan Medias vs Pandurii Targu Jiu – lay Gaz Metan Medias at 5/6.
Gaz Metan have had a good season and have earned their plaudits. They were hard to beat at home last season and the same can be said this season with just two defeats in ten home games. They defend well as a unit and few sides have an easy ride against them. However, their Achilles heel has long been goalscoring; they just don’t do it. The records are there over the past few years for you all to see and the fact that they’ve bagged just twice in three games since their return from the winter break speaks volumes too. The reason that Gaz Metan have done particularly well this year has been due to the emergence of Brazilian star Eric on a more consistent basis. Literally everything has gone through the playmaker this season – goals, set pieces, penalties, the creation of chances from open play etc. etc. and that has made them an even tougher side to face. However, they rely an awful lot on him and that should be enhanced today with their best striker Litu absent for this game. In addition to that, Gaz Metan miss important defender Trtovac, which lessens the solidarity of their unit, so I certainly don’t feel that Gaz Metan merit odds of 4/5 here.
Pandurii Targu Jiu’s odds away from home this season probably played a huge part in such short odds being placed against the hosts for this game. However, that in itself is a mistake, in my view, due to their managerial change. Pandurii have lost seven out of eleven on the road this season with four draws along the way, it’s true. However, this looks to be another case (to me) of the statistics not telling the full story. You see, for some time now, Pandurii Targu Jiu has been a completely defensive unit wherever they’ve played with the intention of stopping opponents scoring rather than scoring themselves. That all changed when Grigoras was appointed as boss back in October 2010 though – they became a much more attacking side and they’ve looked good for the change, to be honest. Consider that under Grigoras, Pandurii have only lost twice in their six away games, which was against giants Steaua Bucharest and high-flying Vaslui. Amongst the sides that failed to beat Pandurii Targu Jiu at home are Rapid Bucharest and Dinamo Bucharest respectively so I think it’s fair to say that this will not be the same type of game as indicated in recent years. Pandurii have scored in five consecutive away games in the Liga now and although they messed up at home to Gloria Bistrita last match by missing a penalty, they’re still a strong side and underestimating them looks very foolish to me, even with important midfielder Bacila absent.
In my view, Gaz Metan are going to need to score at least two goals in this game to win it and I just don’t see them having the firepower to do it. With all of the above in mind, I think laying Gaz Metan at 5/6 looks a tempting one today.
Team news – Gaz Metan Medias miss Buchta, Trtovac, and Litu whereas Pandurii Targu Jiu miss Bacila and Cardoso.
Verdict: Lay Gaz Metan Medias at 5/6.
Fehervar vs Debreceni VSC – home win at 4/6.
For this season at least, it looks like the Soproni Liga title will be Fehervar’s. Coach Mezey kept all of his starters over the winter break, even leading goalscorer Alves, so they’re still able to fire on all cylinders here. Indeed, fire on all cylinders is exactly what they’ve done lately too, winning four out of their last five games in all competitions. Not only that but their last two wins have indicated that Fehervar are somehow getting stronger with an unbelievable 0-5 victory at Ferencvaros being followed up by a 4-0 win against Budapest Honved – two big names in Hungarian football – and it’s going to take an unbelievable display to stop Fehervar as they roll on, in my view. They’ve already won seven out of nine home games in the Soproni Liga this season and even the absent Nagy doesn’t look likely to affect the momentum that Fehervar currently possess so I’m a big advocate of them here.
Visitors Debreceni VSC were atypically the side that I would favour over Fehervar in the past and perhaps it’ll go back that way in future but I don’t think it’ll be that way today. Frankly, Debreceni VSC will be glad to see the back of the current campaign with UEFA investigations, suspended players, inconsistent displays, and departing players and I think this game is beyond them with the above in mind. Captain Kiss and winger Laczko both left Debreceni VSC in the transfer window and given Debreceni VSC’s terrible defensive displays since returning from the winter break, I find it hard to see them being able to be a match for Fehervar today. There is something wrong in their mentality as they demonstrated by losing at Kecskemeti TE not once, not twice, but three times in a row away from home between February and March – their tactical awareness was just non-existant and the giants of Hungarian football were simply embarrassed time and time again. Since then, Debreceni VSC have finally managed a win, albeit at home to Paksi SE, and they trailed in that game, eventually winning 2-1. Their last match ended in a 2-2 draw at home to Budapest Honved and although their record indicates that they are scoring goals, their woeful defending will ultimately cost them and this is the game where I think it’ll show.
Odds of 4/6 aren’t superb considering that these two have probably been the best two sides in Hungary over the past few years (apologies to any Gyori ETO FC fans!) but considering the gulf between them at the moment, I do think that there’s value in the home win today. Debreceni VSC may get their token goal here but Fehervar just look too strong for their opponents so my call is the home win here.
Team news – Fehervar miss Daniel Nagy.
Verdict: Fehervar to win at 4/6.
Piast Gliwice vs LKS Lodz – home win at 13/10.
For me, the best two sides in Poland’s Liga 1 are Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala and Piast Gliwice, who can basically go toe-to-toe in each meeting. LKS Lodz are very close behind but I simply don’t rate them to the same degree due to their error-prone defence. The only reason Piast are behind them in the table is because it took them so long to resolve their striker issues by acquiring Maycon temporarily that their league placing suffered as a result. Piast look back in business now though and they want a swift return to the Ekstraklasa and with a full squad available to them tonight, I have to give them a shot here. LKS Lodz not only aren’t as good nor as experienced as Piast Gliwice but they miss their star player Smolinski for this game with the playmaker absent due to injury. There’s literally nobody else that LKS Lodz need more at the moment as they look devoid of creativity, labouring to a 1-1 draw at Pogon Szczecin and labouring to a 1-0 win at home to Dolcan Zabki since returning from the winter break. Piast Gliwice are a lot better defensively than both of those sides and with nobody to create chances for LKS Lodz, I have to favour the hosts for this game. It’s going to be a tight affair with few goals scored, in my view, but the value is on the home win at 13/10.
Team news – LKS Lodz miss Smolinski for this game.
Verdict: Piast Gliwice to win at 13/10.