TFT Issue 510!
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Featured game
Dinamo Zagreb vs Porto – away win at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Croatia between Dinamo Zagreb and Porto.
Dinamo Zagreb are one of the wealthiest sides in the Balkan region and for that reason, they do tend to qualify for the UEFA Champions League most of the time. It’d be unfair to list that as the only reason, I guess – they also have a very strong academy and tend to be able to replace anyone that has left. If you consider how well this side has done since the departures of Corluka, Modric, Kranjcar, Eduardo, and most recently Badelj, you have to stand in awe, really. They deserve a lot of praise for that. Their overall aim will to be in the same mould as Ukrainian heavyweights Shakhtar Donetsk but they’re some way off them yet, to be blunt. Dinamo Zagreb have enough of their own way against similar level or lesser quality sides but against the bigger sides, it does tend to be a case of damage limitation. Just look at their home record over the years in this competition:
2007 – Dinamo Zagreb 2 Werder Bremen 3
2008 – Dinamo Zagreb 1 Linfield 1
2008 – Dinamo Zagreb 3 Domzale 2
2008 – Dinamo Zagreb 1 Shakhtar Donetsk 3
2009 – Dinamo Zagreb 3 Pyunik Yerevan 0
2009 – Dinamo Zagreb 1 Salzburg 2
2010 – Dinamo Zagreb 5 Koper 1
2010 – Dinamo Zagreb 1 Sheriff Tiraspol 1
2011 – Dinamo Zagreb 3 Neftchi Baku 0
2011 – Dinamo Zagreb 1 HJK Helsinki 0
2011 – Dinamo Zagreb 4 Malmo FF 1
2011 – Dinamo Zagreb 0 Real Madrid 1
2011 – Dinamo Zagreb 0 AFC Ajax Amsterdam 2
2011 – Dinamo Zagreb 1 Olympique Lyonnais 7
2012 – Dinamo Zagreb 3 Ludogorets 2
2012 – Dinamo Zagreb 4 Sheriff Tiraspol 0
2012 – Dinamo Zagreb 2 Maribor 1
You don’t have to be a genius to spot the pattern here. The sides with better players that keep the ball better tend to win here without much fuss. Dinamo rely heavily on possession as they’re not the most clinical of sides so when they don’t have the ball, they really struggle. All the heavyweights have beaten them here and unless Sammir produces something special here, I fear Dinamo will lose again.
This is not the best Porto side that there has been but it’s still a good enough side to win here. They’ve parted with Hulk, which isn’t ideal for them. However, keeping playmaker Moutinho was a huge boost as he’s a terrific passer of the ball and is inspirational to those around him. Seriously – consider a three-pronged midfield from Porto tonight including Moutinho, Defour, and Lucho Gonzalez. Are Dinamo going to see the ball? Not a chance. The absence of Fernando concerns me as I don’t see a ball-winner for Porto but at the same time, I expect them to have the majority of the ball anyway. There’s enough power and pace down the flanks (predominantly from full-back as their actual wide men are limited!) and new striker Jackson Martinez has settled in well with two goals in three games. For me, their main weapon this season simply must be James Rodriguez, though. I’ve followed this guy’s career closely over the past few years and he’s dazzled me at every level he’s played at. He scored a terrific free-kick against Chile for the Colombian national side lately and his passing and composure is that of a player who is 5-6 years older than him. This fella will be world-class in future and if Barcelona have anything about them and their scouts then they’ll be the ones to sign him to replace Xavi. Either way, this Porto is more than good enough to score at least once or twice here and if they do that then really should win this game, in my view – I just don’t see Dinamo scoring easily against their superior opponents.
For me, the away win is priced far too generously at 10/11, hence my selection.
Verdict: Porto to win at 10/11.
Additional games
AC Milan vs Anderlecht – over 2.5 goals at evens.
This should be interesting, really. A superior but disjointed and demoralised AC Milan side hosting an inferior but promising and determined Anderlecht side with the capacity to surprise. Winner? Fuck knows!
If we’re horribly realistic then AC Milan should dismantle Anderlecht without any great difficulty. However, there’s not that much UEFA Champions League experience left in this squad and the majority of their “stars” miss this game through injury so I wonder just how one-sided it’ll be.
Still, enough of that shit; I’m more interested in the goals side of things here. AC Milan score goals; that’s the nature of the beast that they are. With or without their stars, they can and will score goals against Anderlecht tonight. It’s not because AC Milan are the better side but because Anderlecht’s attempts at defending are horrible and they also tend to play a ridiculously high line, which is suicide at the Giuseppe Meazza. Serie A clubs have done well against AC Milan thus far but then again, they’re used to facing them and they’re a lot closer to them than Anderlecht are. This is a very different game and I think that AC Milan will find more joy in front of goal with that in mind.
Still, Anderlecht have the potential to upset their hosts, who look anything but secure. With a young and promising manager at the helm in van der Brom, Anderlecht do look good enough to at least score here. Mbokani looks stronger and stronger as the seasons go by and there’s plenty of offensive weapons in this Anderlecht squad in the form of Biglia, Gillet, Iakovenko, and Kanu. The latter two have really impressed me under van der Brom; it’s like he’s given them a new lease of life. Kanu looks strong and confident on the ball whilst Iakovenko is looking to rip defenders apart whenever given the opportunity. There’s still fine-tuning to be done in this Anderlecht side, as you’d expect, and van der Brom’s decision to field Wasilewski ahead of Juhasz continues to baffle me. Anderlecht’s defence looks very slow and awkward at the moment and Juhasz at least improves that, if not corrects it. Anderlecht are the perfect over 2.5 goals side, more often than not, and I expect them to contribute to what should hopefully be a good open game of football.
For me, taking over 2.5 goals is appealing at evens whether AC Milan turn it on and flattern Anderlecht or whether the Belgian champions rub more salt in the wounds of Allegri and co.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Montpellier HSC vs Arsenal – away win at 6/5.
I don’t like public bets. Does anyone, really? They tend to fail more than they succeed and from the comments I’ve read on forums, it seems that this one is heading that way.
Still, superstition aside, I think that Arsenal are a must at 6/5 today. Realistically speaking, Montpellier over-achieved last season and although that needs to be respected for their work-rate and organisational skills, the fact is that their best striker in Giroud and finding a replacement is not something that is lightly obtained. Montpellier play a very specific style of football and subsequently, only a handful of players would fit into their “unit”. Ironically enough, Chamakh, who can’t get in the Arsenal team, would suit Montpellier down to the ground for my money.
I’m not concerned about Montpellier’s form; early season form is what it is. Let’s not forget that they’re battling on without their best player whilst handling the pressure of public expectation (which they’ve never had) and whilst becoming one of the new sides “to beat” in France. Everyone works harder against them and given that they’re an over-achieving average Ligue 1 side, it’s hardly surprising that that bit of extra effort from their opponents is causing no end of problems for Montpellier.
What does concern me, however, is Montpellier’s lack of efficiency. Last season, they were absolutely superb when it came to scoring when they needed to, holding it with belief and composure, and coming from behind if unfortunate things happened. This season, they look short of confidence, they’re shipping goals far too easily (as per the admission of Montpellier’s boss Girard and midfielder Belhanda, who actually claimed that Arsenal could score “eight” here!), and they’re not scoring enough goals. Bad luck is bad luck but this is bad football and that’s a pretty big problem, especially against a strong and experienced Arsenal side.
Who knows Ligue 1 better than Wenger, really? His scouts are always there, he is French, and a large number of his players come from there. If there’s anything that he doesn’t know about his opponents then he’s got ways of finding it out. Knowing Wenger, he’s done his homework very dilligently, as per usual, and knows how to beat them. Arsenal have impressed me this season not through their goalscoring but through their defending. Ever since Steve Bould was appointed as the new assistant manager, Arsenal look a lot more secure at the back, which it feels strange to be saying! They’re stronger positionally and they keep sides out more easily. There’s still areas to work on but it’s a huge improvement, really. That was what prevented Arsenal from launching a legitimate title challenge over the past few years so could they be set for another spell of pushing for it again? They attack well enough and score goals easily enough against everyone so if they can defend too then they’re back in business. It’s still too early to tell as to whether this newfound strength will see out the season but for the present time, they look a very dangerous and well-oiled machine.
For me, there simply has to be value in a superior Arsenal side winning this one at 6/5, especially with Diaby in the form that he’s in – he looks like a whole new player!
Verdict: Arsenal to win at 6/5.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Schalke 04 – over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
You know, there’s little that amuses me more than the stupidity of the guys that run Olympiakos Piraeus. I’m not exaggerating when I say that only one manager can run this club and get them to play well and that’s Ernesto Valverde. After helping them play the best football that they’ve played in years back in 2008-2009, they allowed him to leave due to his contract demands and subsequently played crap football for a year without him. They realised the error of their ways, brought him back for the next season, and Olympiakos looked good again. Spot the pattern?! Well, now he’s gone again, which is just daft. He’s cited personal reasons as the reasoning behind him moving on but I’m sure Olympiakos could have kept him if they did enough. Why would he keep coming back if he didn’t love the place?
Anyway, Leonardo Jardim was appointed as Olympiakos’ new boss, who is from Portugal. It’s a hard club to manage, Olympiakos – their fans are very demanding, as are all Greek fans, I guess. Olympiakos don’t play as well under any manager as they do under Valverde but they still manage to make a nuisance of themselves in Athens. Away from home, they do tend to struggle and concede goals heavily but never underestimate this side on their own turf. It was once said many years ago that Panathinaikos and Olympiakos were two of the hardest sides to play away from home in Europe and despite both having their respective issues over the past few years, I wholly agree with that statement. There’s something funny about playing in Greece that makes the games harder and none can testify that more than the Italian sides to face Greek sides over the past few years. This really shouldn’t be an easy game for the superior Schalke 04 if Olympiakos play as well as they can. I don’t agree with some of Jardim’s decision (e.g. why Djebbour is ahead of Mitroglou, why Fetfatzidis and Fejsa aren’t regular starters) but he’s a manager and I’m not. Whatever he’s doing is working at the moment so we can’t complain. I think Olympiakos will give a good account of themselves today, as they usually do in Athens, and don’t forget that they beat both Dortmund and Arsenal 3-1 at home here last season.
Still, Schalke 04 are a worth adversary, based on what I’ve seen of them over the past twelve months. As a footballing side, they’ve come on leaps and bounds. They play good, attractive football and they’ve got a natural poacher in Huntelaar so they’re very much engineered to score more goals than thier opponents. They’ve not got a bad back-up in Pukki or workhorse Marica either! Farfan’s pace and strength are always threatening and the influence of arising midfielder Holtby and emerging youngster Draxler are potent threats. Signing proven winger Barnetta and deadly playmaker Afellay pre-season were nothing more than strokes of genius by Huub Stevens, who knows what he is doing. I’d happily make a case for this being one of the strongest midfields in Germany when they get that inevitable cohesion going. Defensvely, Schalke 04 have a very solid centre-back in Papadopoulos and a great partner in Metzelder for him, although the latter is yet to feature for Schalke 04 this season. Howedes is far from a bad replacement though! This is one game where Papadopoulos most likely won’t be at his best, though – who better to know his way than Olympiakos?! Still, Schalke 04 tend to deploy samba tactics and that means that they usually concede too. They’ve conceded in almost all of their European away games for as long as I can remember with trips to face minnows Maccabi Haifa, Steaua Bucharest, and AEK Larnaca respectively being the only places that they’ve kept clean sheets. I like Schalke 04’s football, though – I wouldn’t begrudge them a surprise win tonight if they turn it on.
For me, this one is all about goals, though. Both of these two sides are goalscoring sides and as long as one of them scores early enough to force the other to contribute to the game then 6/5 is going to look very long odds for over 2.5 goals here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Dynamo Kiev – both sides to score at evens.
You know, I’ve seen odds as short as 4/7 for PSG to beat Dynamo here. 4/7! Where do they get these odds from? Maybe PSG will flatten Kiev here and totally prove me wrong but why are they so short? Sure, they’ve bought half of the world in a bid to speed something up that inevitably takes time and thus they have unhappy players that aren’t playing, a real lack of cohesion, and two players – Pastore and Ibrahimovic – who prevent them from falling flat on their faces in every bloody game. Put that against one of the most experienced sides in European football, a side that has played far more European games than their hosts over the past ten years or so, and you have a much closer game than the odds suggest.
I’m in no way out to say that PSG won’t win this game. Anything is possible in football and they have got better individuals than Dynamo Kiev – fact. They’ve got better match-winners too; fact. However, PSG are a long, long way from the finished article and their defending is testament to that. I applaud them for the signing of excellent Brazilian centre-back Thiago Silva because he’ll eventually mould their defence into a proper back four, you know, one that actually knows what the offside trap is and clears the ball once in a while! To be honest, though, he’s been out for a while and the last time he played he looked a mess for Brazil U23 at the Olympics. Different teams, admittedly, but the player remains the same, you know? I’m not convinced with PSG’s defending at all. Up front, Pastore and Ibrahimovic will almost certainly engineer a goal between them somewhere and then the guys tagging along will contribute, such as Lavezzi, Menez, Thiago Motta, Verratti, Matuidi, and Nene, who I feel sorry for. Nene was the one carrying PSG when they were shit and now he’s forgotten about with all these big players in the squad. Shocking stuff – they’ll never breed any loyalty in their players this way. Question; I wonder if PSG’s players all speak the same language yet? Just an idle observation.
Dynamo Kiev aren’t the side that they once were either. I watched them labour past Feyenoord Rotterdam in the qualifiers and although they did enough overall, they really struggled to break Feyenoord down due to a lack of width. It’s a real problem for Dynamo, breaking sides down – they’re simply no good at it. They only play through the middle of the park so any half-decent side with two banks of four will stop them from playing, barring a piece of magic from Brown or Kranjcar, or perhaps even a sublime set piece from Vukojevic. Milevskiy isn’t a team player nowadays but Brown is so Kiev’s forward line looks dangerous at least. Brown used to play in Ligue 1, too – hopefully that’ll give him the edge against an unfamiliar PSG defence today. Yarmolenko is one of the other few players who can make something happen from nothing but he’s still a young player so let’s not weigh him down with expectations. I do like the predictability of Dynamo Kiev as it tends to make me money more often than not. They’re not a very entertaining side, however, and they are easy to play against if your side is organised. PSG, however, are not organised, and thus I expect Dynamo to cause them more problems than they should here.
Key player for Dynamo Kiev; Brown. Key player for PSG; Lavezzi. Why? Brown is the only consistent goalscorer for Dynamo Kiev; he has to be at his best for this bet to win. Lavezzi because he’s the quickest player in PSG’s ranks and one thing Dynamo’s defence do not like playing against is raw pace. Cisse absolutely destroyed them for Feyenoord when playing in Kiev; just imagine what someone who can control the ball and who has a bit of composure can do! Let Pastore and Lavezzi do the running and drop Ibrahimovic back to do the playmaking and Dynamo Kiev will have no answer to PSG’s offensive onslaught. Any other way and well, the result could be anything. I do like the idea of both sides scoring here, though – the odds of evens look intriguing and there’s enough contrast between the two sides for it to happen.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
JJK Jyvaskyla vs VPS Vaasa – away win with draw no bet at 13/10.
Sometimes in football, you find one side that isn’t as good as another side but they almost always have the measure of that one specific opponent. I suppose you could call them a “bogey” side of sorts but that would do my point an injustice as what I’m talking about requires tactical precision. That kind of thing is what we have here, really.
JJK are a much better side than VPS. If you believe anything other than that then I want you to repeatedly punch yourself in the face. However, VPS are one side that has always had the measure of JJK in the Veikkausliiga and I’ve never seen them more equipped to do the exact same thing again today.
JJK play a very attractive style of football. They’re extremely midfield-orientated and will destroy any side that doesn’t have a good holding midfielder, which is why it’s essential for this bet that Fowler passes a late fitness test ahead of this game. If he doesn’t, you have my blessing to withdraw from betting on this game unless you’re fortunate enough to find a stream and watch what is happening.
However, JJK are missing their best (and only real) striker Wusu, who is out with long-term injury. That’s not ideal for JJK as it means that they’re even more limited to what style they play than usual. Generally speaking, they’re either extremely effective or horribly ineffectual; they don’t have a middle ground. They were awful at Honka because Honka played their game better than they did and they lost 3-0. However, prior to that, they ripped Haka apart 5-0 and although Haka aren’t particularly good, they do tend to manage to keep the score down a bit better than that. Make no mistake; anyone underestimating JJK will often get burned because of their awesome potential, especially in midfield. Defensively…well, it’s probably a good idea to mention that aspect of their playing style in case there are any JJK fans reading this today. It’s not pretty. This side can and will concede goals against any Veikkausliiga side with great gusto. I assure you that any side that doesn’t score against JJK either plays with no forwards or has had a terrible game; it really is that simple. They do score goals, though, so VPS must be at their best here.
However, VPS usually are at their best against JJK, hence JJK failing to beat them in seven out of their last nine Veikkausliiga meetings. Indeed, VPS have won six of those games and this is a side that is notorious for not scoring goals! So why does this happen? Well, VPS are one of the best-organised sides in the Veikkausliiga, for my money. They’re also generally spot-on tactically. They do lack a little in the personnel department and in the depth department and those two combined will ultimately cost them points sometimes. They love playing against JJK, though, because they know how to stop them. JJK can play through the middle all they want to; that’s precisely where VPS love to defend. This season, VPS look much more dangerous on the counter-attack than they used to as well. That’s largely because Jamaican hitman Morrissey is leading the line now and he’s far too good to be playing for VPS, to be brutally honest – I’ll be suprised if he’s still there next season. His pace, tenacity, finesse, vision – everything about his game makes him VPS’ best player, especially on counter-attacks. He’ll be pivotal today too with Parikka and Strandvall likely to be out, not to mention Lod. The potential absentees of VPS are quite frightening today but with only Strandvall confirmed as absent, I’m going to take the risk that some of these reported absentees are nothing more than mind games because JJK would love it if pacey Parikka, tireless Lod, and battleaxe Fowler were out. Isn’t a coincidence that the players that JJK would love to be out are all listed as doubtful? Anyway, let’s wait and see if it’s true or not when the line-ups are published. Either way, I very much like VPS’ counter-attacking ability this season and their ability to hold leads too. It’s not a coincidence that this side has only lost four away games in the Veikkausliiga this season. Not bad for a side that supposedly should be battling relegation, eh? Especially not for a notorious “home side”! Honka, HJK, Inter Turku, and high-flying IFK Mariehamn have all failed to beat VPS at home this season. JJK lost 0-2 against VPS here at the start of the season too.
Will the voodoo sign continue here? I think so. We need to see the line-ups before taking the plunge, just in case the rumours are true. For me, there should be plenty of value in taking VPS with draw no bet at 13/10, though. Fowler must play, as must Morrissey. If they do, then this bet is fine with me as VPS usually have the measure of hit-and-miss JJK, even in the valley of a thousand lakes!
Verdict: VPS Vaasa to win with draw no bet at 13/10.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
Porto – Fernando, Rafael, and Rolando are absent. Hulk has left. Iturbe returns.
Paris Saint-Germain – Luyindula, Rabiot, Tiene, Sakho, Lugano, Le Crom, Areola, van der Wiel are absent. Thiago Silva may debutise.
Montpellier HSC – Utaka is absent. Camara is a doubt. Saihi returns.
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – No absentees.
Schalke 04 – No absentees.
AC Milan – Montolivo, Pato, Robinho, Strasser, Didac, and Muntari are absent.
Dinamo Zagreb – Tomacek is absent.
Arsenal – Szczesny, Rosicky, Fabianski, Arshavin, Wilshere, Sagna, and Frimpong are absent. Touchline ban for Wenger.
Manchester City – Richards is absent. Aguero and Barry are doubts.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Sigthorsson, Klaassen, Boilesen, and Enoh are absent.
Anderlecht – Suarez, Jovanovic, and Lukaku are absent.
Zenit St.Petersburg – Criscito, Danny, Semak, Hubocan, and Witsel are absent.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
IFK Mariehamn – No news.
FC Honka Espoo – No news.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Wusu is absent.
VPS Vaasa – Strandvall is absent. Lod, Parikka, and Fowler are doubts.