TFT Issue 518!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Well, we don’t normally have such a wide variety of games to choose from on a Wednesday but this time we do. Let’s hope for some more luck, eh?
As far as general notes go, be aware of the fact that Honka face KuPS in a big game at weekend and both are likely to rest players here so there may be some in-play joy to be found for HJK’s game with KuPS in particular.
Featured game
Real Betis Balompie vs Atletico Madrid – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga game in Andaluscia between Betis and Atletico Madrid.
As any Primera Liga follower knows, Betis are a nightmare to take on at home. They’re not a particularly well-organised side and they’re certainly not hard to score against. However, Betis have a tremendous strength against the odds; their ability to score goals. It was Roque Santa Cruz who did plenty of damage up front with Castro last season but now it’s Molina and the experienced duo have proven too hot to handle thus far. The heartbeat of their team is naturally Basque playmaker Benat, who really should be back at Athletic in the next season or so for varying reasons. His ability to pass the ball and his vision allows Betis to function as an attacking side and that’s precisely what I expect from them today. Defensively, though – this side will concede against any side that attacks them with any conviction.
Atletico Madrid could well be that side today too. They rested players for their trip to Israel last week so Falcao, Arda Turan etc. are all fresh and ready to wreak havoc. I really, really like what Simeone has done with Atletico because their players are finally playing for the shirt rather than their salaries. They look a very strong unit and although their confidence takes a knock after a sustained period of pressure, they’re an absolutely lethal side when it comes to finding the net and not solely because of finisher Falcao either. The fact is that this side attacks extremely well as a whole and having Falcao in their ranks just makes that strength even stronger, to be honest. If Atletico take their chances against a poor Betis defence then they could run riot here.
Would I bet on that happening? Not really, no – playing games in Seville always has a funny affect on players that I can’t really explain. However, I don’t see this one ending without both sides scoring and both sides have the potential to score more so taking over 2.5 goals at 5/6 appeals to me a lot today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Additional games
JJK Jyvaskyla vs Inter Turku – away win at 9/10.
Normally, this is the kind of Veikkausliiga game that could either way. Today, though, I can only see it ending in an away win.
Basically, these two sides pride themselves on their ability to prise any defence in the Veikkausliiga apart and to be fair, they can both do that. Subsequently, neither side pays much attention to defending and thus both can and will concede goals. Essentially, this is the ideal game to nail over 1.5 goals at half-time if it’s 0-0 because if it doesn’t come in then you’ve had one hell of an unlucky day.
So – why Inter today? They are the better side due to their personnel and experience, not to mention manager. However, my reasoning stems from their confidence and the absentees that JJK have today. JJK are still a very strong attacking unit but with key striker Wusu on the sidelines for a while, you can see how they’ve struggled to score goals and how badly that’s affected their form. They can still damage the lesser sides with no problems but in the big games they do tend to go missing.
Inter could and should capitalise on that fact today. I mean, on top of Wusu’s absence, JJK are also missing three of their regular back four. Considering that JJK are bad enough at the back already, Inter not scoring at least twice in this game would be staggering. Inter enter this game on the back of a hugely morale-boosting win at reigning champions HJK Helsinki, a win that plants them top of the Veikkausliiga. They’ve scored more goals than any other side in this division have and that’s largely due to the strength and aerial prowess of Sirbiladze, the runs/set pieces of Ojala, the left foot of Lehtonen, and the potential of Kauko. Inter are not an easy to contain; you need to be able to defend against Dragstma’s side and JJK can’t do that, hence their problem here.
Therefore, I have to consider the away win a good value bet at 9/10. I expect a scoreline along the lines of 1-3 but we should see plenty of goals either way.
Verdict: Inter Turku to win at 9/10.
TPS Turku vs VPS Vaasa – home win to nil at 15/8.
Now this one is easily my boldest call of the day so do approach it with caution!
Ok – not many have championed VPS Vaasa like I have this season and with good reason, too. VPS are very strong tactically and the fact that they now have arguably the best striker in the Veikkausliiga in their ranks has massively boosted their success ratio in the league. Morrissey is able to score at any time for varying reasons (pace, finesse, movement, determination etc.) and VPS’ counter-attacking game allows him to showcase his talents more often than not, especially in a league where only a handful of sides can actually defend.
However, TPS Turku are one of those sides and they’ve done a job on VPS twice already this season and I think that they’ll do the same again today. TPS are a tough nut to crack; they’re very well-organised and motivated. Only over-achieving MyPa Anjalankoski and reigning champions HJK Helsinki have conceded less goals than TPS Turku this season and that’s largely due to the settled defence that Rajamaki has assembled. Rahmonen, Tanska, Nyberg, Hurme – very good back four; easily the best in the league, for my money.
They’ll have their hands full against Morrissey today, no doubt, but these two sides play very similar styles. They’re both very hard to break down and it’s no surprise that these games tend to turn into tactical dogfights, of which TPS tend to emerge the victors, more often than not. TPS have a better class of player than VPS, in a nutshell. Aaritalo, Ristola, Hyyrynen, Pennanen, Lahde, Agyeman – they’re a cut above anything that VPS can throw at them. Key midfielder Pennanen is absent today but former Jaro midfielder Agyeman should be able to slip into the squad. TPS are a very settled side and they need to keep up their wins for their title race. The last thing that they’d want to see is the Veikkausliiga trophy in the blue-and-black half of Turku so they’ll work hard here, I’m sure.
TPS will most likely struggle to penetrate VPS, though – most sides do, hence VPS’ strong away record this season. Still, bringing Roope Riski back on loan is something that could prove to be pivotal in games like this. I think it’ll be tight and that TPS will eventually find a way through and hold it. The longer TPS are without a goal, the more concerned I’ll be because of VPS’ counter-attacking. If TPS get an early goal, though, this one really should win because VPS don’t fare so well when they have to actually attack, especially against a well-organised side. Given that VPS rarely score against TPS for reasons we’ve already looked at and the likelihood that TPS will score the first goal, I do like the idea of TPS winning to nil at 15/8.
Verdict: TPS Turku to win to nil at 15/8.
SSC Napoli vs Lazio – home win at 10/11.
Despite the absence of regular defender Britos, I can’t help but feel that we’ll see a convincing Napoli win here, as per usual. San Paolo in Naples is one of the most intimidating venues in Serie A to play at due to Napoli’s insane fans and given the quality of the hosts, it’s virtually a given that 85% of visiting sides will not leave Naples with anything but a whipping in general. Napoli have already won three out of four this season, averaging scoring two goals per game, which isn’t enough to appease boss Mazzarri, who wants even more! Let’s face it – any forward line with the instinctive Cavani, the tenacious Pandev, and the promising duo of Vargas and Insigne will be a handful. Maggio’s driving runs, Hamsik’s playmaking, and the tenacity of Behrami, Inler, and Dzemaili makes this Napoli side so hard to play against that it’s no surprise that they’ve done so well this season. I expect them to continue that run today too.
Lazio simply aren’t as good as they once were, in my view. Admittedly, their big squad is almost back to a full compliment following their mass of injury problems last season but I just don’t rate their squad that highly. Mauro Zarate used to be a cracking player but he’s not looked his best for a while, becoming more greedy and less battling than before. Klose is a nightmare to mark and he will score goals with the appropriate service but where is that service going to come from? Ederson is not used to playing for Lazio yet and nor is Lulic. That leaves the buck with Hernanes, who is apparently a doubt today (I don’t buy it – there’s no way Lazio’s best player won’t play in this game!). Hernanes is a very good player but Napoli have so many battlers in midfield that I doubt he’ll be able to play his usual game here. If that happens, it all falls onto Lazio’s defence, which is strong but far from unbreakable. They’re a bit slow at times, defensively speaking, and they’re also a bit hot-headed. Lazio can be a pain to play against sometimes (Roma know that all too well) but I don’t see how they can handle a superior Lazio side today.
For me, the value has to be on a Napoli win at 10/11.
Verdict: SSC Napoli to win at 10/11.
Catania vs Atalanta Bergamo – over 5 Asian cards at 4/5.
Call this one more of a hunch, if you wish. I can’t substantiate it as well as I’d like to, in all honesty – I wouldn’t know where to begin doing so with a cards tip. Essentially, these two sides are sides that I class as “nutcases” in the sense that they receive unnecessary red cards far too easily and often give away cheap fouls. Atalanta already have twelve cards this season and Catania have at least ten so the potential is there. Alvarez managed to get himself sent off within five minutes for Catania in their last game and that’s no real surprise. I think we’re in for a tight game between two notorious batting sides and I’d be surprised if this tip lost as a consequence of that. I think we should see over 5 Asian cards at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 5 Asian cards at 4/5 (seen at Bet365, before anyone asks!)
Ekranas Panevezys vs Banga Gargzdai – away win with +2 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
The odds on Ekranas are a joke here! They’re a very experienced side and they may well edge this game overall, which they have a habit of being able to do in the A Lyga. In fact, that’s one of my favourite in-play bets, to take Ekranas to get that first goal in the last twenty minutes when it’s 0-0 as they almost always manage it.
Banga Gargzdai have improved a lot this season, though – that really shouldn’t be underestimated. Fuck their 5-0 win last match; that was a fix. However, they’re extremely good at controlling games and keeping sides out. Ekranas are still the better of the two sides but not to this degree; it’s just ridiculous. Just look at the number of important players that they lost earlier this season due to their financial problems and you’ll see what I mean. Banga are incredibly well placed to cause Ekranas a lot of problems today as long as they play their usual game. Banga have kept six clean sheets in their last seven games, including a trip to Siauliai and a home game with Suduva, both of which are near to impossible. This Banga side has a lot of confidence right now and as good as Ekranas can be, I think there may be an upset on the cards today.
Take what you wish, depending on how bold you are, but for me, the bet of this game has to be +2 Asian Handicap for Banga at a ludicrous 6/5. Ekranas hammering Banga here would surprise me a lot so I think that price is a bargain.
Verdict: Banga Gargzdai to win with +2 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Atvidaberg vs Djurgarden – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Atvidaberg’s steam appears to have finally fizzled out as three straight defeats lead them into this game. To be fair, they’ve had an outstanding and exciting season and they’ve rocked a few boats along the way. They look a bit jaded now, though, and their goals have dried up now that Eriksson has moved on. Prodell is still a threat but Eriksson was the main man and his parting goal for Atvidaberg against local rivals IFK Norrkoping proved that. Since then, it’s no coincidence that Atvidaberg have lost all three games. Confidence is dropping, their defence is as weak as ever, and goals are drying up. Given that the majority of Atvidabergs’ game is to work hard and to score goals, it’s easy to see why they’re falling apart now as they’re not doing either of the above anywhere near enough and they don’t have the quality of most Allsvenskan sides to guide them through such times.
Djurgarden, though – they really should be able to win this one, with the proviso that they get to grips with the artificial turf quickly enough. Djurgarden have looked strangely competent on the road this season and haven’t actually lost an away game since April where it took Mjallby four goals to actually beat Djurgarden in a game that Djurgarden really should have won. In fact, they would have if they didn’t give away stupid goals at the start of the game. Still, Djurgarden’s main weapon on the road is their ability to score goals. Find me an Allsvenskan defence that can handle Hamalainen, Sjolund, Keene, and now the in-form Fejzullahu and I’ll be impressed ’cause I haven’t seen one that can deal with them. I thought AIK totally dominated Djurgarden in the Stockholm derby and Hacken took their chances a lot better than Djurgarden in Djurgarden’s last two games but let’s face it; both of those opponents are in the Allsvenskan title race so Djurgarden losing both games is hardly horrendous. It’s not like them to lose without scoring, though – I hope this minor blip hasn’t affected their confidence. Quality-wise, though, Djurgarden are more than good enough to win this game, irrespective of their dodgy defence.
For me, taking the better side to win this game with draw no bet cover is a steal at 11/10.
Verdict: Djurgarden to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Orebro vs IFK Norrkoping – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Well, it appears that Orebro finally believe that they can beat the drop. They’ve picked a daft time to start getting points but whatever; that’s their concern, not mine.
Home form is going to be what keeps them up, if they somehow manage to do it. They’re not going to get anything from their remaining away games as they’ve got trips to Helsingborg, Elfsborg, and Malmo looming. The fact is that they’re probably going to be playing Superettan football next season but they’ve brought momentum into this game and they still have to believe that they can manage it. They’ve played good games of football lately despite defending like morons. They impressively won at Kalmar and should have won at Syrianska but let it slip. Goalscoring has become something that they can now actually do and with Grahn and Atashkadeh both back in their ranks, it’s hard to see many Orebro games ending this season without them scoring. Grahn and Daniel Bamberg look much more useful when the promising Atashkadeh is playing; that leads to Orebro goals. New striker Kamara has settled well, too – Orebro actually look dangerous in the final third, for a change. They’re capable of winning this game and they really need to.
Will they, though? I won’t rule out it out, especially with Thorvaldsson missing out for IFK Norrkoping. The big Icelandic forward is IFK’s best goalscorer and the promising Nyman does need someone to learn from in this squad. Wiklander’s absence at the back isn’t ideal for IFK either. Still, defending isn’t their strong point and I don’t think that they’ll mind too much either. No, what I like here is that IFK are the biggest fans of counter-attack football in the Allsvenskan. Put them in front of two banks of four and IFK struggle to do anything. Put them on a field where they can counter-attack and they will score goals; that’s what made me dubious about AIK Solna winning there in their last match. IFK Norrkoping love to upset the big sides in particular with this style and it usually works although when they get caught out, they get caught out big time because their defence is weak to say the least. They play on artificial turf, though, and will be able to match Orebro’s usual home advantage here because of it. Orebro must attack them here and IFK are going to lap it up, whether they need the points or not.
That’s precisely why I’d avoid the 1×2 market here but it does make the over 2.5 goals market look very appealing at 4/5, especially considering both sides’ recent form.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
GIF Sundsvall vs Gefle – home win at evens.
This tip actually follows a similar line to that of Orebro vs IFK Norrkoping, as it goes. GIF Sundsvall are very quick on counter-attacks and Gefle are shit, in a nutshell. Gefle only get points when they’re able to use their solid defence. Subsequently, Gefle scoring the first goal in this game will give me a tremendous headache!
However, I love going against Gefle, particularly in situations like these, because they have no firepower. Zilcho. They have no good players and no “stars” either. They’re simply a well-organised and hard-working side who only get points through defending. Look at their Allsvenskan placing, though – they can’t afford to sit back and defend and that will hurt them in games like these because they don’t know how to play any other way. Gefle are only regular threats from set pieces and I really think that this game is beyond them when you consider their lack of firepower and lack of “Plan B”. GIF Sundsvall have plenty of tenacity and pace, especially when attacking. GIF Sundsvall also want the points and they’re good enough to get them, too. My sole complaint this season with GIF Sundsvall has been their finishing but as long as they take their chances here then I can’t see anything but a home win at evens.
Verdict: GIF Sundsvall to win at evens.
AIK Solna vs Elfsborg Boras – home win at 11/10.
This is a huge, huge game in the Allsvenskan so approach it with caution. I also wouldn’t take it at anything less than the odds I’ve mentioned because these two sides are well-matched and AIK are not worth less than 11/10 against a good side like Elfsborg. Let’s not get too carried away with their recent form, after all – Elfsborg are the more experienced side with the deeper squad here.
Still, I fancy AIK to win this game. I think they’ve played some amazing football lately and they’ve developed a resilience that has seen them score goals at important times. They are patient, determined, and very hard-working, which is a very good combination. Subsequently, the yellow-and-black of Stockholm are the side that nobody in the Allsvenskan wants to face right now. They’ve added Goitom to bolster their firepower and young Ghanaian forward Karikari has settled in really well – he looks like a very strong finisher. The emerging Quaison has really impressed and all of the above combined means that the pressure is off playmaking duo Danielsson and Borges, which means that they’re free to cause even more damage. To top that off, AIK are always a threat from set pieces due to their former Gefle-esque tactics i.e. defending and only scoring from set pieces! They’re looking the best side in Sweden right now and although that’s not really the case on paper, they’re confident and potent so I fancy them here.
Helpfully, Elfsborg have been woeful on natural turf this season. Their artificial turf in Boras is one of the hardest places to play in Sweden but Elfsborg really struggle on the road because they’re used to their strong home advantage. They’ve lost at IFK Goteborg, at Kalmar FF, at Malmo FF, and at Helsingborg this season, who all use natural turf in their home games. Elfsborg haven’t actually won in any of their last five away games, losing four times along the way. Now, I’ve watched Elfsborg numerous times lately and it’s like they’ve lost their arrogance and their confidence. Elfsborg’s swagger allowed them to score with their excellent midfield and experienced forward line whilst being able to frustrate sides with their solid defence. Lately, though, they’ve looked poor in the final third and horribly weak at the back. Elfsborg are conceding too many stupid goals and they’re usually conceding them in quick succession. Nilsson and Elm are potent threats up front; please don’t underestimate that! However, Elfsborg are not playing the way that Lennartsson wants them to right now and I think that this game is far from ideal for them, especially after their galling 0-0 draw at home against GIF Sundsvall at weekend. Elfsborg miss the influential Ishizaki today, which is nice, but Elfsborg have plenty of talented midfielders so I won’t go overboard. Svensson is the best playmaker in the Allsvenskan and Claesson and Hult are both capable of being match-winners, if they so desire.
This should be a fascinating game but for me, there’s only one side playing like potential champions at the moment and that’s AIK. As long as they continue their recent form and play like they have in recent games then I don’t see Elfsborg having the momentum nor the composure to do anything but lose this game, hence my call of the home win at 11/10.
Verdict: AIK Solna to win at 11/10.
Team news
Brazilian Serie A:
Flamengo – Wellington, Renato Abreu, Muralha, Mattheus, and Maldonado are absent. Luiz Antonio and Adryan will be dropped to the bench for poor displays. Ibson is a doubt. Leo Moura returns.
Atletico Mineiro – Bernard is absent. Jo, Rafael Marques, Junior Cesar, and Marcos Rocha return.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Jaro Pietarsaari – Sara, Vaganov, and Vasiljev are absent.
FC Honka Espoo – Vayrynen, Rexhepi, and Yaghoubi are absent. Aijala and Tammilehto are doubts.
HJK Helsinki – Lindstrom is absent. Savage returns.
KuPS Kuopio – Holopainen, Voutilainen, Joenmaki, Tabe, and Venelainen are absent. Smith may debutise.
IFK Mariehamn – No absentees.
FC Lahti – Kemppinen and Kari are absent. Hukka, Mero, and Grossohmichen are doubts.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Wusu, Reintam, van Gelderen, and Nieminen are absent.
Inter Turku – Bahne, Diallo, and Parviainen are absent.
MyPa Anjalankoski – No absentees.
Haka Valkeakoski – No absentees.
TPS Turku – Pennanen and Makinen are absent.
VPS Vaasa – Parikka is a doubt. Uimaniemi returns.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Bellini, Radovanovic, Marilungo, Ferreira Pinto, Carmona, Capelli, and Biondini are absent. Lucchini, Peluso and Schelotto are doubts.
Cagliari – Cossu is absent. Camilleri is a doubt.
Catania – Alvarez is absent. Terracciano, Potenza, and Keko are doubts.
Chievo Verona – Luciano, Paloschi, and Squizzi are absent. Drame, Dainelli, and Cruzado are doubts.
Genoa – Rossi, Vargas, and Velazquez are absent.
Internazionale – Mariga, Obi, Palacio, and Stankovic are absent. Mudingayi and Ranocchia are doubts.
Lazio – Brocchi, Diakite, and Radu are absent. Biava, Hernanes, and Konko are doubts.
AC Milan – Boateng, Muntari, Pato, Strasser, Didac Vila, and Zapata are absent. Robinho and Flamini are doubts.
SSC Napoli – Britos is absent.
Palermo – Cetto, Milanovic, and Zahavi are absent. Sanseverino, Mantovani, and Brienza are doubts.
Parma – Biabiany, Palladino, Rosi, Sansone, and Santacroce are absent.
Pescara – Modesto, Perin, Romagnoli, Terlizzi, and Savelloni are absent. Togni, Crescenzi, and Chiaretti are doubts.
AS Roma – Dodo, Lobont, Osvaldo, and Bradley are absent. De Rossi and Totti are doubts.
Sampdoria – Poli and Lopez are absent. Tissone, Obiang, Krsticic, and Estigarribia are doubts.
Torino – Birsa and Suciu are absent.
Udinese – Basta, Domizzi, and Muriel are absent. Mazzarani is a doubt.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Ekranas Panevezys – Arlauskis is absent.
Banga Gargzdai – Grigaitis is absent.
Polish Liga 1:
Nieciecza – Kaczmarczyk, Biskup, and Jarecki are absent.
Arka Gdynia – Jedrzejowski is absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Betis Balompie – Chica is absent.
Atletico Madrid – Oulasti is absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Orebro – Grahn and Atashkadeh return.
IFK Norrkoping – Thorvaldsson, Telo, and Frempong are absent. Wiklanders is a doubt.
Atvidaberg – No news.
Djurgarden – Riddez and Pedersen are absent.
GIF Sundsvall – Walker is absent.
Gefle – No news.
AIK Solna – No absentees.
Elfsborg Boras – Ishizaki is absent.