TFT Issue 519!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The usual Friday warning applies here. Anything bizarre that can happen will generally happen on Fridays so keep stakes reasonable and be wary!
Featured game
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Schalke 04 – away win at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Bundesliga encounter between Dusseldorf and Schalke 04.
Now, Dusseldorf have played five games since being promoted and have kept a clean sheet in all five games. That in itself tells you what kind of side you’re dealing with. To be honest, that’s something that Dusseldorf have excelled at for years; keeping other sides out. They have excellent cohesion and they work extremely hard so this is not a side to underestimate, especially at home, where they’re notoriously good.
However, please don’t make the mistake of overestimating them either as that can be equally as fatal as underestimating them. Dusseldorf have some players that are good enough to be in the Bundesliga but most of them aren’t, really. Subsequently, this clean sheet record will not last much longer, basically.
I don’t want to appear callous or overly critical of Dusseldorf’s excellent achievement lately but I have to be honest; they’ve had a “favourable” fixture list, haven’t they? Who’ve they faced – goal-shy Augsburg away from home? A Borussia Moenchengladbach side that hadn’t got used to the sale of their best attacker (and at home too!)? A Stuttgart side missing Ibisevic? A Freiburg side still not over the departure of Cisse? A newly-promoted and goal-shy Greuther Furth? Don’t get me wrong; on another day, Dusseldorf would have lost some of these games had they not brought momentum and a strong work ethic into them. However, my point is that there’s an explanation behind each clean sheet when examined properly and that’s concerning as the things that are truly the best are those that can’t really be comprehended or prepared for.
Dusseldorf can score the odd goal but attacking is their weakest area by far. Only take them to win games against sides of equal or letter ability when playing in Dusseldorf or you’ll most likely get burned.
The big question regarding this bet is whether Dusseldorf can keep Schalke 04 out or not. For me, that answer is a firm and unyielding “no”.
I’ve seen a lot that I like in this Schalke 04 this season and it’s going to take more than an awful display against the best side in Germany to convince me not to take them here. Stevens’ side immediately picked themselves up and tore Mainz 05 a new one too, which is impressive for various reasons. Mainz 05 have been poor this season, it’s true, but they’re notoriously hard to play against, especially for the bigger sides. Mainz 05 possess tireless players, you see, and although they’re not blessed with firepower, they do pose problems. Schalke 04 could have crawled into a hole and died after that defeat against Bayern but no, they came back and demonstrated their ability. I like that a lot.
The fact that Afellay is yet to cement a starting place despite being the best midfielder in the squad tells you how well this side is playing right now. The fact is that they have an awful lot of options in midfield and up front and sides find it hard to know what they’ll focus on when attacking from game to game. With Jones in front of the back four, Schalke 04’s midfield are confident enough to attack freely. Barnetta is settling in well, Draxler looks good, and Holtby has been exceptional so far. Throw pacey Farfan into the mix along with natural finisher Huntelaar and the promising Pukki and you have the potential for a lot of goals. Schalke 04 don’t have a convincing defence – yet – but that doesn’t concern me here as I don’t expect them to be defending much.
Truth be told, I expect a lot of one-way traffic here. Perhaps that’s a shade bold of me, knowing how strong Dusseldorf always are at home. However, Schalke 04 are a very dangerous attacking side and I expect them to score here. If they take the lead then Dusseldorf will be forced to abandon their defensive shape and Schalke 04 should pick them off. Either way, I find plenty of value in the away win at 9/10.
Verdict: Schalke 04 to win at 9/10.
Additional game
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting Braga – away win at 7/5.
Vitoria have parted with a lot of good players pre-season and that makes them a very average/poor side this season, which is something that we’ve yet to see fully exploited. This may be a fierce derby but the quality levels just aren’t comparible right now and I think that makes the odds on the away win a shade long here.
Seriously, what have Vitoria done this season? They were humped by both Porto and Sporting but only Porto took their chances. Vitoria were fortunate to get something from their game against Estoril and managed to capitalise in their derby at Moreirense when their hosts were reduced to ten men. Quality-wise, Vitoria are very weak this season and they’re going to find it hard to stay up, irrespective of their unquestionable support. I do like Balde up front – he’s got good movement and will score if given the opportunity. The rest, though – it just depends how they feel.
Braga are by far the better side here and they really should make it count. They were a lot better against Rio Ave than the scoreline reflects and only a mistake from goalkeeper Beto made this scoreline look even vaguely respectable. Truth be told, Braga could have scored seven in this game as they returned to their best. They need to take their chances more consistently and defend a bit better but quality-wise, they’re streets ahead of Vitoria this time around and it really should show by the final whistle.
If the likes of Ruben Amorim, Marcio Mossoro, Ruben Micael, Hugo Viana, and Paulo Cesar aren’t enough for Braga to win this game then I’m going to be surprised. They play better football, create more chances, and score more goals than Vitoria so 7/5 on the away win appeals to me a lot, even if this is a big derby!
P.S. Expect plenty of cards!
Verdict: Sporting Braga to win at 7/5.
Team news
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Vyoscina Jihlava – Josl is absent.
Marila Pribram – Tarczal is absent. Misun is a doubt.
Sigma Olomouc – Zlamal is absent.
Zbrojovka Brno – Kaufman is absent.
Danish Superligaen:
FC Nordsjaelland – Soma is absent.
Esbjerg – No absentees.
French Ligue 1:
Stade Rennais – Sane, Diarra, and Montano are absent.
LOSC Lille – Kalou and Martin are absent.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Gyori ETO FC – No absentees.
Lombard Papa – No absentees.
MTK Budapest – No absentees.
Siofok – No absentees.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Rosenborg BK – Reginiussen and Braathen are absent.
Haugesund – Andreassen and Vage Nilsen are absent. Skjerve returns.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala – Konieczny is absent. Sokolowski may return.
Ruch Chorzow – Janoszka and Panka are absent. Niedzielan is a doubt. Sadlok, Djokic, and Malinowski return.
Polonia Warsaw – Baszczynski is absent.
Widzew Lodz – Banasiak and Kowalski are absent.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Guimaraes – Freire, Amorim, Dinis, and Matias are absent. Bamba and Toscano return.
Sporting Braga – Salino and Carlao are absent. Baiano returns.
Pacos de Ferreira – Antunes and Santos are absent. Hurtado is a doubt. Poulson and Alvarez return.
SL Benfica – Luisao is absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Orduspor – Sahin and Sinaz are absent.
Galatasaray – Baytar, Ujfalusi, and Sarioglu are absent.