TFT Issue 521!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
I will not be around to post most of today’s team news so please post your own!
Featured game
Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga encounter in Barcelona between Espanyol and Atletico Madrid>
Espanyol are one of those sides that seems to have special powers of survival at home. Pochettino always has them motivated and working hard in general but that seems to take on more of a deity mantle when you view their home record versus their actual quality level.
Espanyol have had a poor start to the current campaign, though. I doubt it’ll last very long but nobody knows precisely when they’ll come out of it. They’ve been a bit unlucky in some games and they’ve not been good enough in other games; that’s just how it goes, though. It’s strange that they’re conceding as many goals as they are, however – only Didac Vila has left and for me, he wasn’t even their best defender. Still, Espanyol were smart in the window by bringing in veteran winger Simao and battling Mubarak as a holding midfielder. Mubarak is absent today, however, and that will cause problems as Atletico Madrid have a very strong midfield. I still think that the likes of Verdu can cause problems but my biggest concern with Espanyol is their lack of a finisher. Longo has done well for them and Stuani has been around long enough, as has Garcia, but none are a Pandiani, you know? They’re really going to miss that despite the fact that their midfield is good enough to compensate. I fancy Espanyol to at least score here, as they do in all of their home games. However, their defending just isn’t good enough right now so you sense that the hottest property in the world right now might just score a goal or two against them.
I’m talking about Falcao, of course. He’s hard enough to mark as it is but a demoralised Espanyol defence will have to be bloody amazing to keep him quiet, especially with his lethal finishing. It’s not as if he’s the only dangerous striker that they have, either – Adrian and Diego Costa are more than capable players too. Throw into the mix the pace of Cristian Rodriguez and Arda Turan with the dominance of Tiago in central midfield and you have a great attacking nucleus. Atletico are solid enough defensively on the face of it although they tend to struggle when their defence is thoroughly examined, which is what Betis did to them last match. They’ll get a real eye-opener against Espanyol in that sense as the Catalan outfit never stop working. However, I expect Atletico to score at least once here and who knows? Maybe their momentum will see them secure yet another win.
I’d not touch the 1×2 market, to be honest. I know a lot of you may be coaxed into it by the form chart but I really wouldn’t read so much into that. This is a proper test for Atletico, one that this new-look Simeone side has not yet encountered this season. I don’t honestly know if they have what it takes to continue their excellent run here, much as though they should. Facing Espanyol away from home is one of the hardest tasks in the Primera Liga for my money, irrespective of their form. However, I do like the idea of over 2.5 goals here, though. Espanyol fans won’t let their side rest without at least scoring and scoring is what Atletico do best so over 2.5 goals appeals to me at 10/11.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Additional games
AA Gent vs Club Brugge – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
The first thing you all need to take into account before betting on this one is that it is a derby, and a pretty hotly-contested one at that as the two sides do not like one another.
However, I can’t help but find value on Club Brugge today. These odds must be because of how Gent were last season because they’ve lost almost all of their good attacking players pre-season and it shows. Yes, they worked hard at first and even looked good for a short duration but that is nothing but a memory now. They won 1-2 at Standard de Liege but were losing until their hosts were reduced to ten men and would have lost too, in my view. Beating amateur outfit Bocholt 8-0 is hardly something to write home about either. It just seems to me that whenever Gent encounter a good or well-organised side, they struggle. Ilombe and Arbeitman are good strikers but there’s next to no support with Thijs ready for retirement and everyone else having moved on. If Club Brugge underestimate their rivals today then they’ll get punished but on the quality front, there’s no way that Gent should be winning this game.
Club Brugge may chop and change a little ahead of their home game with Maritimo Funchal in the UEFA Europa League next week but they’ve got plenty of depth this season (for a change!) so I am not too concerned. I like how well that they’re playing football at the present and the swagger that they’ve developed to boot. Their defending is quite poor at the best of times because they’ve got a wealth of attacking options and it really does show. We’ve not even seen the best of Tchite yet and Club Brugge are still flying! Bacca looks a real prospect, you know – six goals in five games, instinctive finishing, pace, movement, power. I like that fella. Poor Vleminckx can’t even get in the team right now and with the likes of Meunier, Blondel, Rafaelov, and van Acker supporting them, the Club Brugge attack is very strong. I nearly forgot Jorgensen, too, who lines up against his former club for the first time today!
For me, this is a complete mis-match in terms of quality. That’s not all that matterts in football games but when a side like Club Brugge plays well, they do tend to win and I don’t see the necessary quality in Gent’s side to prevent them from doing so today.
Verdict: Club Brugge to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Internazionale vs Fiorentina – away win with draw no bet at 7/5.
I kind of get the impression that this will become a public bet but let’s hope not, eh?
I’ll be blunt here, gents – I really don’t like the new Internazionale side. I think they lack balls, lack creativity, lack confidence, lack finesse, lack experience, and lack composure at the back. They don’t look anything like a team right now and despite the undeniable fact that they have some very talented individuals in their squad, I just don’t see it impacting Internazionale games like it should. They’ve already lost two out of two at home this season and they clearly can’t handle the pressure of their own fans. This tends to show in Europe, too – I’ve never known such a big club to be so bloody woeful at home as Internazionale are. I’m sure it’ll change around in due course but for now, Internazionale are vulnerable against the right side.
Now, Fiorentina can be that “right side” but the big question is “will they?”. Only the team can answer that question, of course – we can only speculate. Based on what I have seen from Fiorentina so far this season, however, I am convinced that they will show up against Internazionale and give them a good game. Montella has really got his feet under the table now and that was more than evident as Fiorentina dominated a superior Juventus side in Florence, despite the game ending 0-0. Fiorentina have the personnel to do really well this season if they maintain their belief and work-rate. They’ve got a very good manager in Montella and as an AS Roma legend, I’m sure he hates Internazionale too!! We do have to be mindful of the fact that Fiorentina have a pretty awful record against Internazionale, both at home and away – they’ve not beaten them anywhere since 2006 and haven’t beaten them in Milan since 2000! Still, I really like the direction that Fiorentina are being taken in now. Luca Toni as the target man, Jovetic in the hole, Valero, Ljajic, Fernandez, Aquilani, Pizarro pulling the strings behind him, Cuadrado sweeping up the mess. Their defence is still susceptible against sustained pressure but Internazionale don’t look capable of delivering that at the moment.
For me, as long as Fiorentina work hard and take their chances then I don’t see them losing this match. They’re playing better football and they’re playing much more enthusiastically than Internazionale are right now. I can see a lot of value on the away win with draw no bet cover at 7/5 although it goes without saying that this one really isn’t worthy of lumping your life’s savings on!!
Verdict: Fiorentina to win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Ekranas Panevezys vs Siauliai – home win with -1.5 handicap at 10/11.
I’ve said lately that Ekranas aren’t as good as they once were and that’s true; they are missing the experienced players that they lost earlier this season. However, they’re still a solid side and they’re still capable of beating most A Lyga sides with Siauliai not being an exception.
I watched Ekranas beat Banga earlier this week and I thought they did well enough. They were fortunate to clear the handicap but their overall display merited it. They’ve now won three consecutive games, beating the -1.5 handicap in all of those encounters whilst keeping three clean sheets along the way. They’ve already won twelve out of fifteen at home in the A Lyga this season and they’ve beaten the -1.5 handicap in nine of those twelve wins. I’ll call their lack of depth and quality as much as I like but Urbonas has got them doing what they need to in order for them to win games so credit to him for that.
Siauliai are one of the sides that can upset the bigger sides as they just don’t fear them. Indeed, with the A Lyga’s top goalscorer Rimkevicius in their ranks, why should they fear sides? Still, you’ll no doubt notice the change in trend of their games lately with one goal scored in two games. Rimkevicius is still there to put the ball in the net but the departure of integral playmaker Vezevicius has really damaged their side. Kozlovs etc. are still there and Siauliai will still cause problems but Vezevicius was their main man in midfield and his departure will harm them the most in big games like this. I thought Suduva were rarely out of control against Siauliai in their last game but a penalty ultimately won it for the hosts. They’re not scoring goals from open play at the present time, though, and that’s a real issue.
With that in mind, I feel that a dominant Ekranas display could lead to a strong home win today. Siauliai’s defence is very poor so as long as Ekranas are vigilant at the back then they should clear the -1.5 handicap at 10/11.
Verdict: Ekranas Panevezys to beat the -1.5 handicap at 10/11.
Molde FK vs Stabaek – home win with -2 Asian Handicap at evens.
And today’s monumental quality gap game is in Norway with reigning champions Molde hosting doomed Stabaek.
Given that Stabaek were so strapped for cash pre-season that they were forced to surrender their Telenor Arena, they had to move back to their old stadium, which uses natural grass. The Telenor Arena had artificial grass, however. This change means that Stabaek are playing on a surface today that they’re at least familiar with.
However, I’m being serious when I say that the above is the only good news for Stabaek and it’s not even really news; it’s just the only silver lining I can give this youthful and frankly poor side. They’re out of their depth in this league as it is due to all the players that they’ve sold but they’re even more out of their comfort zone against one of the best sides in the country. Ten wins in eleven home games tells you the strength of Solskjaer’s side and their firepower in Norway is legendary, not that their records reflect that anywhere near as well as they should, which is primarily due to their strange tactics away from home. Stabaek have lost nine out of eleven on the road whilst conceding nearly three goals per away game on average. They’ve been humped by every big side in Norway this season and I don’t see that changing today.
My sole concern for Molde would be travelling as they’ve just come back from the Arctic Circle where they lost at Tromso. Now they host Stabaek and then they face Stuttgart in a few days time. That’s a pretty tough roster, really, so rotation can be expected. They’re good with their depth, however, and Stabaek are awful so the -2 Asian Handicap appeals to me a lot at evens today.
Verdict: Molde FK to beat the -2 Asian Handicap at evens.
Petrolul Ploiesti vs Steaua Bucharest – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
I was very impressed with how well Steaua played in their recent derby with Rapid. The 1-0 scoreline didn’t do their dominance justice as they could have and should have scored a lot more. It seems that Reghecampf has turner a corner with Steaua and although their defence is still susceptible, their attack has improved a lot. I’m not quite sure how it’s improved but Rusescu and Adi have suddenly become the most dangerous strike duo in Romania and with Chipciu, Pintilli, Bourceanu, and especially Tanase in midfield, this Steaua side has a lot of firepower. They’re very well-supported wherever they play and they bring a lot of confidence into this game. Petrolul may have the financial power but they’re not showing any cohesion at the moment, which is unlikely to change with the news that Mustivar is not playing. There are too many individuals in their side and not enough team players and despite the desire from individuals such as Cristea (for obvious reasons) I just don’t see how Petrolul will cope with the awakening dragon that is Steaua. Petrolul have the personnel to survive it but they have to play as a unit and they’ve not done that for a while, as they’re seemingly unable to even hold a lead.
Barring an uncharacteristic display from the hosts, the away win with draw no bet cover looks very interesting at 4/5 as only one of these two sides is playing like a unit right now.
Verdict: Steaua Bucharest to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Team news
Please post your own today!
Brazilian Serie A:
Bahia – Avine, Coelho, Jonas Carioca, and Souza are absent. Gabriel and Ze Roberto are doubts. Neto returns.
Botafogo – Renato, Antonio Carlos, Brinner, Lucas Zen, and Marcelo Mattos are absent. Vitor Junior returns.
Corinthians – Emerson, Chicao are absent. Danilo and Fabio Santos return. Jorge Henrique and Paulo Andre are doubts.
Sport Recife – Willian Rocha, Reinaldo, and Gilsinho are absent. Magrao, Hugo, and Edcarlos return.
Coritiba – Sergio Manoel, Keirrison, Jackson, Everton Costa, Emerson, Deivid, Cleiton, Bonfim, and Ayrton are absent. Roberto and Rafinha return.
Sao Paulo – Denilson, Wellington, Ganso, and Fabricio are absent. Luis Fabiano is a big doubt. Toloi returns.
Flamengo – Adryan, Caceres, Maldonado, Muralha, and Wellington are absent. Renato Abreu and Mattheus return.
Fluminense – Leandro Euzebio is absent. Edinho, Carlinhos, and Wagner return.
Gremio – Bertoglio and Fabio Aurelio are absent.
Santos – Vitor Andrade, Galhardo, Paulo Henrique, Leo, Henrique, Fucile, Edu Dracena, Bruno Peres, and Alison are absent. Neymar and Adriano return.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Split – Krizanac, Serdarusic, Babic, and Marcic are absent.
Lokomotiva Zagreb – Samateh is absent. Line-up named – Zarkov, Boras, Barbaric, Mesaric, Musa, Males, Situm, Pavicic, Trebotic, Brucic, and Kramaric.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Viktoria Plzen – Kolar, Pavlik, and Cisovsky are absent. Horvath, Bakos, and Reznik are doubts.
Slovacko – Kuban, Fujerik, Kosut, and Kordula are absent.
Hradec Kralove – Malinsky is absent. Klapka, Plasil, and Janousek are doubts.
Slovan Liberec – Fleisman is a doubt.
Danish Superligaen:
Silkeborg – Risgard and Bech are absent.
Aalborg BK – No news.
OB Odense – No absentees.
AGF Aarhus – Kure is absent. Eckersley and Pasanen return.
Randers – No absentees.
Brondby – No absentees.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Pecsi MFC – No news.
Ujpest – Heavy fan protests mid-week after surprise cup defeat.
Ferencvaros – Jovanovic is absent.
Diosgyori VTK – Luque and Gallardo are absent. Gal and Elek are doubts. Rudolf may debutise.
Romanian Liga:
FC Brasov – Dragan and Velayos are absent.
Otelul Galati – S.Ilie and Didi are absent.
Petrolul Ploiesti – Mustivar is absent.
Steaua Bucharest – Szukala is absent.
Rapid Bucharest – Rui Duarte and Constantin are absent.
CSMS Iasi – No news
Turnu Severin – No news.
Viitorul Constanta – Turcu is absent.
Russian Premier League:
CSKA Moscow – Gonzalez, Doumbia, and Necid are absent.
Dinamo Moscow – Shunin and Nekhaychik are absent.
Anzhi Makhachkala – Gabulov and Akhmedov are absent.
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod – Plesan and Ryzhkov are absent.
Rostov-na-Donu – Sheshukov, Kalachev, Dyakov, and Angbva are absent.
Rubin Kazan’ – Arlauskis and Tore are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid – Emre is absent.
Espanyol – Mubarak, Mattioni, Garcia, and Baena are absent.
Celta de Vigo – De Lucas is absent.
Granada – Benitez, Yebda, Rico, Lucena, and Ighalo are absent.
Osasuna – Damia, Bertran, and Punal are absent.
Levante – Gekas, Juanlu, and Pallardo are absent.
Real Valladolid – No news.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – Leo is absent.
Real Madrid – No absentees.
Deportivo La Coruna – No news.