TFT Issue 524!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
I find this to be a particularly strange round of fixtures as far as the UCL goes so I’ve created a list of thoughts to help you see why I’ve avoided most of them.
Featured game
Manchester City vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – home win at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game at the Stadium of Manchester between Manchester City and Bv09 Borussia Dortmund. There are no prizes as to guessing which is the better followed side here but will they win the game today? I doubt it.
For me, City could and should win this one against their more popular but less illustrious opponents. I am not the biggest fan of Mancini’s side in Europe because despite their fantastic players, they simply don’t look very comfortable in this competition. Indeed, it could be observed that they look naive more often than not, as their defeat at Real Madrid showed.
Still, they look much better than they did last year and that’s encouraging. They’ve got talismanic striker Aguero back, which pretty much leaves them at full-strength, barring the troublesome right-back position. City’s problem this season has been defending too. Joe Hart reckons that they’re not doing anything different to what they did last season but I disagree. I think what is marginally affecting City is a case of what I call “second season syndrome” whereby the side in question don’t put quite as much into their games as they did for the first occasion, which is predominantly why United win the league more often than any other English side – they’re always hungry. Now, that’s not to say that City are not working hard because they are. What I am pointing out is that there’s that extra percent that you can give in each game and you do – if you want it enough. I am not so sure that City want the league as much this year as they did last year and that may yet be their downfall.
Still, enough of the redundant pessimism; City have looked confident and dangerous in attack and that’s what interests me the most here. Their movement, pace, and strength should cause no end of problems for a weak Dortmund defence. I’ve not seen a side yet this season that can effectively contain a very strong and varied attack so I fully expect City to do their job today.
Dortmund are an interesting side. I like how hard they work for Klopp; their admiration for their boss is clear to see. However, they’ve looked extremely sluggish in defence this season and it’s going to take more than a 5-0 win against an almost unrecognisable Borussia Moenchengladbach side to convince me that they’re back to their best. Attack-wise, Dortmund do look dangerous with the lethal Lewandowski being constantly supported by clever Reus and skilful Gotze. That three-pronged attack is very hard to handle and City do need to be careful of that here. However, I can’t escape envisioning the problems that Dortmund have suffered in almost every game this season when it comes to defensive composure and positioning. If a Bundesliga full of predominantly average strikers can do a lot of damage to their defence then just imagine what a few world-class names can do! I know football doesn’t always work that way but still; their defence looks cumbersome right now and they’re not confident because of it.
You could opt for goals here, I guess, but I am not so sure that Dortmund will be good enough to score here. I think we’ll see a bit of a scrappy game today but I do think that City have more experienced individuals and better quality players than Dortmund, enough so to find value in the home win at 9/10, particularly with Dortmund’s defence all over the place right now.
Verdict: Manchester City to win at 9/10.
Additional game
Inter Turku vs KuPS Kuopio – home win with -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
With TPS Turku inexplicably losing at FC Lahti and HJK Helsinki falling to pieces against Haka, the chance is there for Inter Turku to pull away at the top of the Veikkausliiga by winning today and I don’t think that they could have picked a better game to “need” to win either.
It’s not the quality (or lack of) on the side of KuPS that makes me state the above but moreso their absentees and their tiredness. Their season has gone up in flames now that Honka won the Suomen Cup against them at weekend. KuPS fell to pieces after Honka took a first-half lead with first Tabe getting two yellow card in ten minutes and promptly seeing red before Estonian maestro Puri joined him, reducing KuPS to nine men. Their dismissals not only mean that they miss the redundant game today but also that the remaining nine players had a nightmare game against a very mobile Honka side at weekend. Losing the final (again) must be depressing for them and if you add the missing players and the lack of motivation together, it’s very hard to see a capable but depleted KuPS side getting anything in Turku today. Joining the afore-mentioned on the sidelines are two more defenders – Joenmaki and Karkkainen. In addition to Tabe, that means that three of KuPS’ back four miss out today and the remaining regular – Holopainen – has to have injections to even stand a chance of playing in this game. Emerging youngster Voutilainen, engine Obiefule, and playmaker Puri all miss out too, which depletes their midfield. The one area of their team that still looks strong is attack with Ilo, Venelainen, and Dudu all very capable forwards. Aside from Purje, though, it’s hard to even contemplate where the chances will come from to allow them to score.
Inter, though – they’re at full-strength here barring the question marks over number one Bahne. They’ve not won in four consecutive Veikkausliiga games now, though – hopefully Dragtsma’s side aren’t bottling it. They threw away the lead to draw two of their last four games although admittedly those two games were against their fellow title rivals TPS Turku and HJK Helsinki respectively. Inter Turku must remain calm and play their usual game here. If they do that, there’s simply not a chance that they won’t annihlate KuPS today, especially with so many players out for the visitors. Inter have all kind of options up front with player of the month Sirbiladze leading the line and Ojala, Kauko, and Paajanen supporting him. Inter really should be way too good for KuPS here, as they’ve proven already this season.
As long as Inter aren’t affected by their recent run then this should be a demolition job. Seldom does it actually happen that a strong favourite destroys a depleted side in actuality but with all of the above taken into consideration, backing Inter to beat the -1.5 handicap appeals to me a lot at 5/6. Let’s see if they make Akseli Pelvas rue his penalty miss for HJK when the score was 2-2 on Monday night, shall we?
Verdict: Inter Turku to beat the -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Thoughts on the remaining UCL games
Ajax vs Real Madrid
Ordinarily, I’d be all over the Real Madrid -1 AH or -1.5 AH here but El Clasico looming at weekend bothers me. Madrid have plenty of depth but they’re not playing well enough right now to have my complete faith. I like where de Boer is taking his Ajax side and how they play for him in every game but they’re a very youthful side and they miss their only recognised goalscorer in Sigthorsson so I fear for them today. Ronaldo and co. could very well rip them apart but will Mourinho rotate or tell them to sit back? I just don’t know. Mourinho knows how important games against Barcelona are, given the closing gap between the two sides. Ajax can knock the ball around very nicely if they want to and their pace and movement could trouble a dubious and frankly unconvincing Real defence. Still, I can’t see Real not scoring at least two or three times against a pretty makeshift Ajax defence. If I was to bet then the Madrid handicap would be my choice but I just can’t bring myself to get involved here.
Porto vs PSG
This is a very hard test for PSG and I’ve not seen anything yet to convince me that they’re ready for it. It’s one thing to beat a host of average Ligue 1 sides but it’s another to do it at this level and I don’t think that they have what it takes as a unit. Yeah, they scored four against Dynamo Kiev but if you watch the highlights then you’ll see Dynamo giving them all the opportunity in the world to score and even increase their tally further still. If Dynamo are conceding two goals from corners then you know that they’ve not shown up! I won’t deny PSG the plaudits that they deserve for scoring the goals that they have but they’ve still got a lot to learn about being a team. I think their defending is still dubious as they’re not settled yet and I think they’ll struggle under pressure. You won’t find much more pressure than at the Estadio do Dragao where Hulk’s absence almost seems to have lifted the team, based on what I have seen. They do miss his raw pace and strength from time to time, especially on the flanks, but they’ve improved as a unit since he moved on, in my view. This is one of the hardest venues in European football to play at, in my opinion, and I think that this Porto side has more than enough quality in midfield to keep the ball and make PSG sweat. This is a huge test for PSG and I’ll be impressed if they come through it unscathed. Still, as far as betting goes, this one is a bit tricky. I do think we’ll see goals but if Porto aren’t creating chances because PSG are sitting too deep then we may see an unders game here. Hard one to call although I don’t expect Porto to lose.
Dynamo Kiev vs Dinamo Zagreb
This is the first of two games tonight that get a shrug from me. Dynamo Kiev are better than Dinamo Zagreb and should make it count but the odds are a joke, especially when you consider the fact that Dinamo know at least half of their midfield very well indeed as they’re former players of Dinamo Zagreb. Dinamo Zagreb tend to play bunker football on the road in Europe and Dynamo Kiev are not very well equipped to break sides down nowadays. Something like a 1-0 or 2-0 is likely but I see no value in this game at all barring a cheeky flutter on under 2.5 goals.
Zenit vs AC Milan
This is a very interesting game. It seems that everyone is jumping on Zenit to win this one but obviously they’ve not seen much of Zenit lately if they’re doing that. Zenit look bereft of their usual composure and belief and it’s doing them so much damage. I don’t know if it’s the introduction of Witsel and Hulk that has caused it or whether it’s that training ground “bomb” with Hulk’s face on it that has unsettled them but they’re shipping goals far too easily and they’re not doing anywhere near enough in the final third to win games. Zenit play Italian football and guess what? They’re playing an Italian team today, who know precisely how to play Italian football and how to nullify it as they do it week in, week out. Yeah, Milan are lacking in experience and quality nowadays, not to mention form. However, I think they’re more of a unit right now than Zenit are and they’re certainly capable of poaching a goal and upsetting the Petrovsky faithful in doing so. It’s going to be a hard one to get involved in today, as far as betting goes. Unders does intrigue me but too many variants really put me off. As far as experience and quality goes, you’d have to favour Zenit but I just have a feeling that Milan can do the job against a side that plays a style of football that Milan know very well indeed.
Schalke vs Montpellier
The -1 Asian Handicap was my weapon of choice for this one but I’ve talked myself out of it. I was not impressed with Schalke’s complacency against Dusseldorf on Friday night, throwing away a lead that they should really have further improved. Schalke have impressed me overall this season, hence my initial interest. I like their varied attacking options, their finishing, and their work-rate. I don’t know how they’ll react after the Dusseldorf game, though. I also don’t know how much faith I have in their defence either. Montpellier weren’t bad against Arsenal, creating some good chances but failing to take them. It only takes a single goal from them to upset any handicap bet here as few sides score three goals in a single game in this competition. Schalke are good enough to do it but it’s just not worth taking the risk when it’s likely that they’ll concede. Montpellier can play nice football sometimes and Schalke are complacent enough to ruin this bet so I’ve avoided this one.
Arsenal vs Olympiakos
I think Arsenal will have it easy enough here if they approach the game correctly but was dissuaded from taking the handicap option by the absence of Diaby. He has been a revelation for them this season, breaking up attacks and launching them for his team. They don’t have a natural replacement for him with Song having moved on and that’s a problem here. I like what Wenger has done with Arsenal, as per usual – they look a very strong unit. Their defence has improved a lot although clearly still has work to do following their ridiculous goals conceded against Chelsea at weekend. I wish I was 100% convinced with their defence because I’d handicap them against an Olympiakos side that doesn’t travel well and doesn’t have their beloved Valverde in charge nowadays. Olympiakos are not a bad side but their absence of quality nowadays will see them struggle a lot on the road this season. This game is Arsenal’s to dominate but with Gervinho wasteful and their defending a bit hit-and-miss, I feel that avoiding this one would be the best approach other than perhaps to take the home win in-play at better odds.
Anderlecht vs Malaga
And this game claims my second “shrug” of the night. Anderlecht are very strong in attack, at least domestically, but they struggle to show it at this level. Malaga are not experienced at this level, unlike their hosts, but they have been playing very well this season. Both sides have managers that I respect a lot. Anderlecht have a very dubious defence that Malaga can and almost certainly will exploit. Still, the Vanden Stock will be bouncing tonight and Malaga may find it hard to play in this atmosphere. Anderlecht have some skilful and some strong players, which does make them a hard side to bet against. Overs was in my mind for this game but to be honest, a 0-1 win for Malaga is not off the agenda here as they’ve looked very composed this season whilst Anderlecht tend to struggle against well-organised defences when falling behind. This is another no bet for me.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
AC Milan – Pato, Muntari, Didac Vila, Muntari, and Strasser are absent. Flamini is a doubt.
Paris Saint-Germain – Thiago Motta, Bodmer, Lugano, Tiene, Le Crom, Luyindula, and Rabiot are absent. Menez and Lavezzi return.
Dinamo Zagreb – Tomacek is absent. Ibanez and Brozovic are doubts.
Manchester City – Maicon, Richards, and Kolo Toure are absent. Rodwell returns.
Arsenal – Szczesny, Diaby, Rosicky, Sagna, and Wilshere are absent. Arteta is a doubt.
Zenit St.Petersburg – Hubocan, Criscito, and Witsel return. Yanbaev, Semak, Denisov, and Danny are absent. Lombaerts is a doubt.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam Porto
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku – Diallo and Parviainen are absent. Bahne is a doubt.
KuPS Kuopio – Voutilainen, Joenmaki, Puri, Obiefule, Karkkainen, and Tabe are absent. Holopainen is a doubt.