TFT Issue 530!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Words of warning to you all; the International games are almost always crippling to the gambling community and today’s games look especially hard. I like some, as you can see below, but please apply caution for such fixtures! It’s also worth noting that it’s very hard to write a lot about these type of games for varying reasons.
Featured game
Russia vs Portugal – away win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Although Portugal never properly convince me in the qualifiers for any competition nowadays, I do think that they’ll win this one today. Russia are a predictable side as it is but with Capello at the helm, they’re even more predictable. They’re physically strong and good in the air but lack creativity, unpredictability, and firepower. A lot of their players are “the same”, if that makes sense. There’s only a handful that can change a game for Russia and their best one for that still isn’t playing for them. They’re a threat to sides that can’t defend properly but despite Portugal’s occasional complacency toward defending, you really have to expect them to do enough here as long as they remember where they’re supposed to be at set pieces. Portugal are the free-flowing attacking side here with their pass-and-move football. I wouldn’t like to take them to win this game at home as Russia would no doubt “park the bus” but in Russia, you have to expect the hosts to go for it, especially in front of their own fans. That gives the speed of Portugal plenty of opportunities to score on the counter-attack and that’s essentially what I think will happen here.
Barring a Portuguese meltdown, I think taking Portugal to win this game with draw no bet cover is a great bet at 5/6.
Verdict: Portugal to win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Additional games
Turkey vs Romania – lay Turkey at 6/5.
To me, Turkey look criminally short for this game. Romania are no world-beaters but they’ve at least looked extremely unified and hard-working in their recent games. Piturca is a good coach and his sides are well-organised and thus that’s precisely what I expect from Romania today. They love to be attacked because they can defend all day long whilst counter-attacking with pace. Veteran Mutu returns to the squad to add a bit of finesse up front and I think that they’ve shown enough in recent months to warrant taking them to get a favourable result in Turkey. Turkey themselves are far too hit-and-miss, inept defensively, and lacking in key areas for my liking. I like their strikers but they seem to miss a leader, a defensive rock, and a consistent midfielder. As good as Turkey can be – once in every ten games – I think this united and rock-solid Romanian team are good enough to prevent the home win today.
Verdict: Lay Turkey at 6/5.
Bolivia vs Peru – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Bolivia have grown tired of struggling against South American opposition again so have reverted back to their old advantage of playing at altitude here. They’re good enough to beat any other nation in South America in their beloved La Paz, purely because most sides simply can’t breathe at this height. Peru have gone for an adventurous move here, though, which I quite like. They’ve left a lot of their more recognised stars at home for the next game. Instead, they’ve opted to bring players along that are used to playing at altitude to try and deprive Bolivia of their advantage and who knows? It might just work. Bolivia do have some very good players but they’re few in numbers and they’re always prone to conceding stupid goals, especially with their crazy goalkeepers. Peru have to play to their maximum here and hope that their little trick pays off but given that Bolivia aren’t a terrific goalscoring side and given that the majority of Peru’s firepower have been left behind, I think that taking under 2.5 goals is the way forward at 5/6.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Adelaide United vs Western Sydney Wanderers – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
To me, Adelaide United are way, way too short here. Yes, winning at Newcastle Jets in their last game will have done them the power of good but have the bookies forgotten who they lost pre-season? Kosmina is a good manager but he’s not God! Adelaide lost a lot of good players, players that they’ve not replaced. It’ll show sooner or later and why not today? Again, I admire the way that they approached their game with the Jets but this is different. At home, Adelaide are expected to do the damage and make things happen and I don’t see many players in their ranks capable of doing that effectively. In due course, they’ll become a decent side again but for now, I would not bank on them scoring goals on a regular basis.
Admittedly, Western Sydney are still a new side that are trying to gel with one another. They’ve got a few great players in their side and a number of decent players. They looked decent in their opening game but will need to do more in the final third if they’re to achieve anything in the current A-League campaign. They’re a bit too sluggish and lacking a spark right now for me to consider them winning here. Still, with Ono pulling the strings, I certainly won’t rule it out. This isn’t a bad side at all and I firmly believe that you’ll see that when they gel properly. For now, I’m inevitably awaiting their “shock result” that upsets all of the bettors around the world as all cash-built clubs produce after a slow start. I’m hoping that that particular game is not today and I think it’s unlikely to be this one anyway, to be honest – Adelaide are too cautious to be regularly caught out in a game like this.
For me, the hosts are too short but I don’t rate either side in front of goal at the present time for varying reasons so nailing under 2.5 goals at 4/5 looks a smart move to me.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news
World Cup Qualifiers:
Lithuania – Slavickas, Vaitkunas, Mikuckis, Ivaskevicius, and Kuklys are absent.
Serbia – No absentees.
Portugal – Joao Pereira, Pepe, and Ronaldo are doubts.
Norway – Grindheim, Huseklepp, Bjorn Helge Riise, Carew, Gamst Pedersen, and Abdellaoue are absent.
Croatia – Olic and Ilicevic are absent.
Italy – Criscito returns.
Denmark – Sloth may debutise.
Finland – Arkivuo is absent.
Hungary – Priskin, Halmosi, Huszti, and Laczko are absent
Wales – Bellamy, Collison, Edwards, Taylor, Collins, and Hennessey are absent.
Scotland – Hanley, Rhodes, Snodgrass, and Naismith are absent.
Turkey – Balta is absent.
Israel – Benayoun, Ben-Haim, Sahar, Cohen, Shechter, Gershon, Yadin, Damari, and Rafaelov are absent. Vermouth is a doubt.
Ukraine – Konoplyanka is absent.
Moldova – Armas and Bulgaru are doubts.
Romania – Tanase is absent.
Estonia – Dmitrijev, Oper, Klavan, and Teniste are doubts.
Sweden – Toivonen is absent.
Netherlands – Sneijder, van der Wiel, L.de Jong, and Robben are absent. Douglas may debutise.
Czech Republic – Rosicky and Kolar are absent. Rajtoral is a doubt.
Bulgaria – Dyakov, Minev, and Genkov are absent. Zanev and G.Sarmov are doubts.
International Friendlies:
Poland – Blaszczykowski and Polanski are absent.
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Sweden U21 – Hult, Lewicki, Celik, and Albornoz are absent.
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United – Vidosic is absent. Caravella is a doubt.
Western Sydney Wanderers – Trifiro is a doubt.
Polish Liga 1:
Katowice – Rakels and Beliancin are absent.
Miedz Legnica – No news.