TFT Issue 535!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Genclerbirligi vs Galatasaray – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Super Lig encounter between Genclerbirligi and Galatasaray.
On paper, you have to fancy Galatasaray to win this one, realistically speaking. Fatih Terim and Galatasaray are as one; neither can demonstrate their full potential without the other. Galatasaray haven’t looked as strong in attack nor as confident for many years and Fatih Terim has been in the wilderness for some time too. Put the two together, though, and you have a sleeping dragon that is beginning to waken.
There’s no reason that Galatasaray should fear this trip to Ankara; they have a very strong record against their hosts Genclerbirligi whilst facing them in Ankara. Let’s face it; Galatasaray have got four strikers in their squad that almost every other club side in Turkey would kill to have. Burak Yilmaz, Umut Bulut, and even Johan Elmander can score at will and that’s what makes Galatasaray such a dangerous attacking side. There’s plenty of pace in their side and plenty of spirit too, even too much spirit as far as Felipe Melo is concerned! There’s talk of Altintop not producing his best form and I can agree with that although I would still name him as an important player, and most importantly of all, I’d name him as a dangerous player. This Galatasaray side has been built to attack, to score goals, and that’s precisely what they do.
Still, this trip to Ankara may just be a little harder than normal for them today. Hosts Genclerbirligi have played well so far this season and bring a good level of momentum into the game. They’ve won their last two games in a row whilst bagging six goals and conceding zero goals. I’d not go berserk about this side; they don’t have any real stars, after all. However, they’ve got a good level of grafters and they’ve demonstrated an unusually large amount of potency so far this season, which I personally attribute to the signing of Durmaz from Malmo. Durmaz is the type of winger that just makes things happen and in a league where defending is virtually a myth, it’s not hard to envision him doing well here, especially with Zec in good form.
The main reason that Galatasaray should fear this game is that their defence is still a mess, in my view. The lengthy absence of Czech stalwart Ujfalusi has caused them no end of problems with the signature of old Cris from Olympique Lyonnais merely paving over the cracks as a temporary measure. The fact is that no Super Lig side enters a game with Galatasaray right now thinking “We can’t score against these guys” and that is a problem, as we saw in their last game. Eskisehirspor went to Istanbul with the mentality that they could get a result – and they did. Eskisehirspor are good at frustrating sides but they took on a side that is a lot better than them and held their own. Today’s game should be a different kettle of fish but you can see what I am saying here; Galatasaray are far from secure in defence.
So…we should have an interesting game here, in my view. I don’t see it ending without both sides scoring, even on a Friday! I think Galatasaray should edge it but their hosts are in good form and they’re capable of surprising at home if things go their way. However, with no real absentees of any note (barring long-term absentee Ujfalusi), I find it hard to look beyond taking over 2.5 goals at generous odds of 9/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional games
FC Honka Espoo vs KuPS Kuopio – home win at 10/11.
Since August 2006, Honka and KuPS have faced each other nineteen times in all competitions. Interestingly enough, Honka have won all of those encounters, which surely has to be the longest-standing string of wins by any Veikkausliiga side against another! This league is notorious for its unpredictability and crazy scorelines so the above record absolutely fascinates me. I’m sure it’ll end at some stage; all things do, after all. However, I thought I’d share that one with you!
Quality-wise, Honka are a better side than KuPS and that has played a large part in the above statistic over the years. The news that Honka are suffering financially may persuade people to jump on the KuPS wagon today but I think we’ll see more of a battling Honka approach to this game because of the above information, as we saw only a few weeks ago when the same news was leaked about Honka’s precarious financial position. Look at it from the perspective of the players, too – they are going to want to put themselves in the shop window if this ship is indeed sinking and they’ll only do that with convincing displays. Aside from that, a lot of these players came through the same academy; I suspect a number of them will want to work as hard as they can for the club’s fans, irrespective of the redundancy of the outcome of this fixture.
On paper, Honka’s recent form isn’t very good. In reality, the results that they’ve had have all made perfect sense. They lost against title challengers TPS Turku and bitter rivals HJK Helsinki, two sides that can beat any other side in Finland, so that’s acceptable. They lost at Jaro and drew at home against MyPa but do bear in mind that they rotated players in both games due to the Suomen Cup final in between those two games. Aside from that, Honka have been as regular as clockwork, which is what convinced me to take them today.
KuPS will want revenge for their Suomen Cup loss but so what – they’ve wanted revenge for about six years now and they’ve still not managed to get it. I actually rate KuPS rather highly; it’s just that the KuPS that I like shows itself once every month or two, more often than not when they’re not supposed to. Quality-wise, KuPS are very underestimated, especially in attack where they have some excellent players at this level. However, they have got issues today with star midfielder Purje absent, which is unsurprising as he was heavily involved in Estonia’s win at Andorra on Tuesday night. Puri is likely to be tired and Holopainen is still on the sidelines. Venelainen and Ilo are always going to be a handful up front and Dudu will be desperate to score against the club that he failed at but without Purje, this side seems to lack a link that is essential for them to score goals. Honka’s defence is a joke but their attack is strong and KuPS don’t travel well and they don’t defend well either. KuPS can surprise sides from time to time but they tend to need a reason to do so and there just isn’t one today. Indeed, with Honka’s reported financial problems, I’d argue the case for there being more reasons behind them winning this one than their opponents.
I won’t rule KuPS out from giving Honka a tough game today because they’re physically strong and they’re far better than the Veikkausliiga table suggests. However, if you ask yourself why KuPS are in the position that they’re in then I’m sure you’d all agree that it’s down to their laziness and inconsistency, which could and should feature again here today because that’s just how KuPS roll. You could argue that KuPS need points to ensure that they don’t get relegated but I don’t buy it. Haka would have to beat Inter Turku at home, Honka at home, and VPS away in order for KuPS to potentially be relegated and to be honest, I’ll be surprised to see Haka win any of those games. KuPS do not need an invitation to be lazy and do things stupidly so if Honka are determined enough today then the home win looks interesting at 10/11.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to win at 10/11.
MTK Budapest vs Fehervar – both sides to score at 4/5.
This tip is one of the more interesting ones of the day but it’s one I like a lot.
MTK Budapest have been a real success story since their swift return to the top flight of Hungarian football. Garami’s team may be bereft of stars but what they have in abundance that almost no other Hungarian side has is a spirit and cohesion that can only come from sides with prominent academies, in my view. Any player that comes through the MTK academy fights for the shirt. They play as one, they attack as one, and they always, always believe that they can score goals. MTK are actually reputed in Hungary for having their own style of football, which makes the trip to Budapest to play them even more daunting. Taking on a side packed full of cohesion and belief is hard enough but when they play their own brand of attacking football, they become very hard to handle. MTK are unbeaten at home this season and have scored in all but one of those five games, beating illustrious local rivals Ujpest along the way. Garami has been at the helm for what – eight years now? He raised a lot of these players, he knows the MTK brand, and he remains a very important part of this eternally impressive club. Tischler, Konyves, and Kanta have been the success stories for MTK this season, especially Kanta. All of them ensure that any side coming to Budapest to face them will have a hard game, irrespective of MTK’s naive defending.
Fehervar are the polar opposite to MTK Budapest. They’re built on efficiency and money nowadays; there’s no real entertainment factor in their football. To be horribly blunt, they’re a pretty droll side to watch. That doesn’t matter, though – what matters is results…which they’ve also not been getting. That does matter! That’s precisely why Paulo Sousa is under a lot of pressure right now, which makes this game much more important than he’d like it to be because he knows this is a tough game. Losing at home against Ferencvaros, drawing at Paksi SE, not even scoring against Diosgyori VTK or Gyori ETO FC at home – it’s just not good enough. You can accept that Fehervar have had a difficult run of games, sure, but you can’t accept the lack of goals that they’ve scored and the fact that they didn’t win any of them. So – where are they going wrong? The quality is there. The depth is there. Big Torghelle’s absence can’t have damaged them that much, surely? He’s good in the air but he’s nowhere near as talented as Nikolic, Mitrovic, or Gyursco, for example. Fehervar play a good passing game and will frustrate the hell out of any opponent when they’re playing well. When they’re not playing well, they become very vulnerable and start to concede early goals, which destroys their entire gameplan and often costs them points as they lack the determination to go gung-ho to score goals if things aren’t going their way. Our Hungarian specialist thinks that Sousa may even be forced into going 4-4-2 today on the basis that MTK’s weakest area is defence and given that Fehervar are desperate for three points right now, I think he may well have a point! If that happens then Fehervar can’t play their containing 4-5-1 and will almost certainly participate in a more entertaining game, which should produce more goals.
Either way, the only side that tends to dictate what happens when MTK play at home is…MTK. They’re a very good home side and will not be beaten easily here. Fehervar will need to produce a masterclass display to win this one without conceding, in my view. I can’t see a weak MTK defence keeping their various attacking options out but similarly I can’t see Fehervar handling MTK’s attacking style. Add it all up and it looks like goals to me! Therefore, I like the idea of taking both sides to score at 4/5, especially with a key part of Fehervar’s defence – Stopira – absent today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory – Thompson, Rojas, and Milligan return.
Adelaide United – Boogaard, van Dijk, Vidosic, and Caravella are doubts.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Lokomotiva Zagreb – Pavicic and Barbaric are absent.
NK Zagreb – No news.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slavia Prague – Vosahlik and Zakostelsky are absent.
Marila Pribram – Tarczal is absent. Koukal is a doubt.
Danish Superligaen:
FC Nordsjaelland – Mtiliga has been banned from international football with Denmark following his refusal to sit on the bench in their last game and thus may be affected here.
Silkeborg – Thorbjorn Holst, J.Mikkelsen, and Pourie are absent.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo – Yaghoubi is absent.
KuPS Kuopio – Purje and Holopainen are absent. Puri is a doubt. Tabe returns.
FC Lahti – Kari, Veltheim, and Tynkkynen are absent. Lepola and Heionen are doubts.
MyPa Anjalankoski – Koskinen is absent.
Haka Valkeakoski – Pesonen is absent. Hjelm and Attakora are doubts.
Inter Turku – Diallo, Paajanen, and Parviainen are absent.
IFK Mariehamn – No absentees.
TPS Turku – Makinen is absent.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Wusu is absent.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Jonke and Aho are absent. Brunell and Skrabb are doubts.
VPS Vaasa – Engstrom, Lod, and Maki are doubts.
HJK Helsinki – No absentees.
French Ligue 1:
Girondins de Bordeaux – Henrique, Traore, Poundje, Ben Khalfallah, and Tremoulinas are absent. Sertic, Maurice-Belay, and Bellion return.
LOSC Lille – Bruno, Bonnart, Gueye, and Mavuba are absent. Kalou and Martin return.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
MTK Budapest – No news.
Fehervar – Stopira is absent. Torghelle returns.
Ferencvaros – No news.
Paksi SE – No news.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Gornik Zabrze – Magiera is absent. Skorupski, Milik, and Danch are doubts.
Korona Kielce – Kuzera, Vukovic, and Golanski are absent.
Zaglebie Lubin – Horvath is absent.
Lech Poznan – Henriquez, Tonev, and Murawski are doubts. Mozdzen is absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Genclerbirligi – Petrovic and Akcakin are absent.
Galatasaray – Baytar and Ujfalusi are absent.