TFT Issue 537!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
There are lots of dicey games today so be careful. I like the ones I have listed below but based on yesterday’s scores from around the world, I suspect we’re in for another tricky day.
Featured game
Parma vs Sampdoria – home win at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the Serie A game at the Ennio Tardini between Parma and Sampdoria.
No wins in five games would suggest that Parma are playing badly but for my money, they’re not. To the contrary; I think they’re playing pretty damn well! Let’s give Parma their due respect here, shall we? They’ve only had two home games during that five-game spell and one was a 1-1 draw with in-form Fiorentina (last-minute equaliser!) and the other was against under-achieving but talented AC Milan so I doubt Parma were crying after those results. Losing at Catania and Napoli is an experience that most Serie A sides encounter and drawing at Genoa is a decent result, in my book. Personally, I think Parma have done well and I think they’ll continue to work hard today and who knows – they may just get another three points under their belts, especially with Amauri finally getting some match fitness together. I like the togetherness of Donadoni’s team; they’ve worked really hard in each game and I respect them a lot for it. This Parma side is better than their form suggests, in my view.
On top of that, I’m really not over the moon about Sampdoria, you know? They’ve had a good start to the season but barring the win at the San Siro, was it really that impressive to win at Pescara and at home against Siena, the two sides that were promoted with them? I’ll respect any side that is winning their games but you can see that Sampdoria have struggled at this level since then, failing to win in their last four Serie A games. Maxi Lopez is a good striker; we all know that. Eder has never been good enough at this level so Sampdoria’s threat is known, if nothing else, which is important. Maresca has experience but he’s one of few that do in a youthful Sampdoria midfield. I wasn’t at all impressed with Estigarribia at Juventus last season and not much has changed since then. I like that Sampdoria are a solid unit under Ferrara but they don’t concern me with their attack. I am not sure that they’ll do enough to survive this season although it must be comforting that Pescara and Siena are in Serie A with them because they’re almost certainly going to finish below Sampdoria. Again, this Sampdoria side is not easy to beat but with attacking options very limited, I think they’ll find life tough at the Ennio Tardini today, just as they did during their last two visits here in 2010, losing both games.
Sampdoria have failed to score against Parma for three consecutive meetings now and although the past is the past, I think it’s fair to say that they do tend to have the edge in these encounters. I think Parma have looked better than Sampdoria have this season and they’ve got the ability to make it count today. They’ll need big games from Amauri and Valdes but the home win appeals to me at 11/10 if that happens.
Verdict: Parma to win at 11/10.
Additional games
Litex Lovech vs Botev Plovdiv – home win at 4/5.
The young Litex side has impressed me so far this season. They’ve galvanised well with one another, especially in midfield where Milanov, Vajushi, and Tsvetkov have excelled. Should we expect anything other than what we’ve seen whilst Stoichkov is at the helm, though? He knows how to get his sides fighting as a unit and that’s precisely what Litex are doing right now. I would question their striking options with only Zakov scoring goals right now but the fact remains that Litex are playing well and they’re playing with confidence, which I like. Only heavyweights Ludogorets and Levski Sofia have even scored against Litex in their last five games so I think it’s fair to take them seriously.
Botev Plovdiv are no pushovers, though. They’ve played really well this season thanks to some timely financial investment. Old Tsvetkov up front has been in fine form and the perfect blend of youth and experience have aided them to no end all over the park, especially in midfield. Botev are a side to respect this season, especially at home. Everyone knows how vociferous the Plovdiv fans are so betting against this side at home is a “no go” for me. Away from home, though, they don’t have that advantage and it does make a big difference. Botev struggle to play their game on the road and subsequently struggle to score goals, making the goals that they concede all the more fatal. Spasov’s side are good but I just feel that there’s a lesson that they need to learn about away games in Bulgaria that they’ve not yet acknowledged and this promising Litex side should be able to punish them today for it.
Despite the absence of Tsvetkov, I do like the look of Litex winning this one at 4/5.
Verdict: Litex Lovech to win at 4/5.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart – home win at 6/5.
For the first time in a long time, Hamburg are actually playing good football. They still don’t score enough goals on average but they’re a good side to watch and they should progress if they continue playing as well as they have been lately. Fink has really whipped them into shape and thus despite their attack being rather youthful, both Rudnevs and Heung-Min Son have looked very sharp in the final third. Having van der Vaart back in their ranks to pull the strings and the tireless Jiracek alongside him makes the Hamburg midfield that bit more dangerous than normal too. Badelj and Ilicevic are capable midfielders too! I’m not a fan of Mancienne in the slightest but the Hamburg defence has looked solid this season so I will give him the benefit of the doubt. They’re very much a solid side right now, Hamburg, hence them winning three out of their last four games and keeping a clean sheet for their last two games. Their composure and organisation impresses me, as does their consistency, so I think they’ll do well today.
Stuttgart couldn’t look more disjointed if they tried, however. I really liked watching them last season due to their carefree attacking football but they just look weak this season. Ibisevic and Harnik are a nightmare in attack together as they link up really well but Stuttgart haven’t supported them much this season, hence their predicament. The knock-on effect from that is that Stuttgart’s many goals conceded are proving to be fatal. There are some good players in this side and Stuttgart are a capable team – when it suits them – but they’ve not impressed me lately and I think that they’ll struggle at a new-look Hamburg side today without that strong cohesion that they had last season.
For me, there should be value on the Hamburg win today.
Verdict: Hamburger SV to win at 6/5.
Suduva Marijampole vs Banga Gargzdai – home win with -1.5 handicap at 9/10.
Banga Gargzdai may be feeling happy with the affect that their Georgian attacking duo of Alaverdashvili and Nikabadze have had on their team this season and their excellent run a few weeks ago, not to mention their impressive defence. However, I feel that they’re out of their depth today and I’ll explain why.
Suduva are one of the top three sides in Lithuania, basically. I personally rate them as better goalscorers than Zalgiris Vilnius and Ekranas Panevezys but the afore-mentioned have better overall displays than Suduva generally do. The quality that Brazilian forward Rafael Ledesma brings this Suduva side is unmatched in the A Lyga, whether it’s from his general play or his terrific set pieces. Luksys and Beniusis both know how to find the net too so the three combined make the Suduva attack very dangerous indeed, especially with promising Eliosius playing so well in midfield. Defensively, they could do better but it doesn’t tend to matter in Marijampole; they usually just win anyway. The only sides to avoid defeat in Marijampole since mid-June have been the two sides that are currently above Suduva in the table, just to give you an idea of how consistent Suduva are. They’ve won every other home game during that time, beating the -1.5 handicap in all but two of those encounters too. The fact is that Suduva are a very good attacking side and will not be happy at having been somehow passed by inferior Kruoja Pakruojis. A season without European football is unthinkable for the Lithuanian giants so I expect an all guns blazing display from Suduva today.
Banga Gargzdai are a side to respect but with regulars Grigaitis and Staponka missing from their attack today, it’s hard for me to envision them upsetting the odds here. They do have some good players, Banga Gargzdai, but they also know who their superiors are and Suduva are definitely one of those sides. Banga Gargzdai lost here 3-1 earlier in the season and a similar scoreline today wouldn’t surprise me. Banga may have scored some goals lately but they’re without a win in three games and the pattern that their away games take when facing big sides right now is rather predictable with losses at Ekranas, Zalgiris, and Suduva themselves having all occured this season. Indeed, Banga have lost all five away games against the heavyweights of Lithuanian football and they’ve been beaten two goals or more in all five games. Banga would love to cause an upset today but I genuinely think it’s beyond them.
For me, taking Suduva to beat the -1.5 handicap is well worth a bet at 9/10.
Verdict: Suduva Marijampole to beat the -1.5 handicap at 9/10.
Stromsgodset vs Molde FK – home win at evens.
This is a colossal game in terms of the Eliteserien title race so don’t wade blindly into it!
I really fancy Stromsgodset to beat Molde today though, I have to admit. Stromsgodset are always terrific on their artificial turf in Drammen and ten wins from twelve home games this season backs that point up perfectly. Stromsgodset are a fearless attacking side that can and will score against any side in Norway, bar none. It’s not a coincidence that they average scoring over two goals per home game although it is a coincidence that they have the second-best defensive record at home in the Eliteserien this season because their defending is a joke. The reason it’s not exposed more is because Stromsgodset are generally the ones who do the attacking at the Marienlyst. I watched this exact game last season and the hosts were the better side than with Molde needing a scrappy goal to nick it. I doubt the visitors will be as lucky today with Stromsgodset looking immense at home, though, especially with big Kovacs leading the line.
Visitors Molde are more than capable of getting a result here but two things make me think that they won’t. The first is that they’re far too cautious in their away games, never scoring enough goals to win games because they almost always concede. They don’t tend to play well on artificial turf anyway but the fact that they’ve got a huge game with Steaua Bucharest in Romania next week will surely take priority here. Atypically, playing in or aiming for the Champions League would be the priority but I personally think that Solskjaer wants to make a name for himself at the club before moving on at the end of the season and the only way to do that is to succeed in Europe. They’ve got a decent chance of progressing from the group that they’re in, too – they’ve already beaten Stuttgart at home – so why not go for the glory? Molde can still win the Eliteserien, to be fair – I just don’t think they’ll prioritise it, based on what I’ve seen so far from Solskjaer’s team selections.
Goals are not unexpected here but I fancy Stromsgodset to win this one at evens, especially with their ability to score goals at will.
Verdict: Stromsgodset to win at evens.
Amkar Perm’ vs Terek Grozny – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
This is one of the earlier kick-offs of the day and hopefully it’ll set a nice precedent for the rest of the day. Generally speaking, this game will go under 2.5 goals and I really expect this one too.
These two sides mirror one another in the sense that both play an aggressive style that focuses on keeping clean sheets due to a lack of firepower in each squad. Both sides are more than happy to sit deep upon taking the lead but both sides struggle to take the lead due to not having enough firepower. Terek are the better of these two sides at the present time but taking anyone to win in Perm’ just isn’t something that I’d ever endorse doing due to the difficulty of the trip. Amkar are very well-organised at home, just as Terek are, and both sides love to frustrate their opponents. That’s where both sides excel, really. I just can’t see many goals in this one, barring a very unusual game of football. Both sides are hard to penetrate and both prioritise clean sheets over scoring goals and that’s precisely what I expect here. All points are essential to Amkar at home as they’re usually embroiled in a relegation battle and any points on the road are good for Terek, who often struggle away from their beloved Chechnya. Pick a winner if you dare; I can’t. However, under 2.5 goals looks a steal at 4/5 to me for a game between two solid defensive sides.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news
Argentinian Primera Division:
Quilmes – W.Olivera is absent. Caneo, L.Diaz, Garnier, Carli, and Cobo are doubts.
River Plate – Mercado and Maidana are absent. Villalva is a doubt.
Atletico Rafaela – Eluchans is a doubt.
Atletico Lanus – M.Velazquez is a doubt.
Boca Juniors – Cellay, Albin, and Ledesma are absent.
Estudiantes de la Plata – Angeleri is absent. Gelabert is a doubt.
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix – Sanchez, Pavlovic, and Pantelis are absent. Downey, Totori, Moss, Paston, Lochhead, Sigmund, Bertos, and Brockie return.
Brisbane Roar – Meyer is a doubt.
Perth Glory – Berger is absent. Smeltz returns.
Melbourne Heart – Mehbratu and Germano are doubts. Colosimo is absent.
Brazilian Serie A:
Flamengo – Luiz Antonio, Leo Moura, Muralha, Cleber Santana, and Maldonado are absent. Wellington Silva, Adryan, Caceres, and Gonzalez return.
Sao Paulo – Fabricio, Ganso, and Canete are absent.
Atletico Mineiro – Danilinho is absent. Rever and Bernard are doubts.
Fluminense – Jean, Leandro Euzebio, and Anderson are absent. Wellington Nem returns.
Nautico – Douglas Santos, Elicarlos, Marlon, Ronaldo Alves, and Ramirez are absent. Martinez returns.
Portuguesa – Bruno Mineiro, Rogerio, and Leandro Silva are absent. Gustavo, Marcelo Cordeiro, and Lima return.
Ponte Preta – Marcinho and Tiago Alves are absent. Ferron, Nikao, Roger, and Wendell Santos return.
Santos – Edu Dracena, Rafael Galhardo, Alison, Paulo Henrique, and Fucile are absent.
Atletico Goianiense – Bida, Adriano Pimenta, Felipe Brisola, Joilson, Marcos, and Wesley are absent. Boss Neto has hinted that he may rest players to focus on the Copa Sudamericana.
Sport Recife – Magrao and Rivaldo are absent. Hugo, Renan Teixeira, Willians, and Willian Rocha return.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Sofia – No news. Neutral venue.
Montana – Pashov and Tsvetkovski are absent.
Pirin Gotse Delchev – V.Marchev is absent.
Cherno More Varna – Dechev is absent. Manolov and Bergonsi return.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Kunchev is absent. Gospodinov is a doubt. New boss – Genov.
Slavia Sofia – Gaal, Toshev, Yankov, and Popara are absent. Lopes is a doubt. Matsui returns.
Minior Pernik – Hadzhiev, Vasilev, and Hristozov are absent.
Etar – Pivati is absent. Eduardo, Sedula, and Marques are doubts. Tsvetanov has left. Temporary boss – Chakarov.
Botev Vratsa – Varela and N.Hristov are absent. Anev is a doubt.
Ludogorets – No absentees.
Litex Lovech – Tsvetkov is absent.
Botev Plovdiv – No absentees. Karaslavov returns. Bamogo may debutise.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hajduk Split – Jozinovic is absent.
Istra 1961 – Aganovic, Sharbini, Jerkovic, and Jugovic are absent.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Sigma Olomouc – No absentees.
Dukla Prague – No absentees.
Hradec Kralove – Malinsky is absent. Klapka, Plasil, and Janousek are doubts.
Teplice – Rosa is absent. Mahmutovic is a doubt.
Vyoscina Jihlava – Kolousek, Mesanovic, and Gavric are absent.
Sparta Prague – Pavelka and Svejdik are doubts.
French Ligue 1:
AC Ajaccio – Belghazouani, Delort, Tiberi, El-Hany, and Lasne are absent. Andre and Eduardo return.
Bastia – El-Azzouzi, Moizini, Marque, and Sans are absent. Cahuzar and Ilan return.
Olympique Lyonnais – Michel Bastos, Grenier, and Gourcuff are absent. Ghezzal and Reveillere return.
Stade Brestois – Ba, Ayite, Alphonse, Culma, Khaled, and Dernis are absent. Toure and Mendy return.
Troyes – Thiago, Rincon, N’Sakala, Grax, Brechet, Drouin, and Faussurier are asbent. M.Camara, Bettiol, and Enza-Yamissi return.
Olympique de Marseille – Diawara, N’Diaye, and Barton are absent.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC – Szucs, Roland Varga, Farkas, Novakovic, Mate, and Meye are absent. Bouadla and Cvitkovics return.
Diosgyori VTK – Rudolf is absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – Hrepka is absent.
Beitar Jerusalem – Moyal is a doubt. Fernandes returns.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Radovanovic, Ferri, Ferreira Pinto, Capelli, Biondini, and Bellini are absent. Carmona and Stendardo are doubts.
Bologna – Curci, Gimenez, Natali, Perez, Portanova, and Stojanovic are absent. Krhin is a doubt.
Cagliari – Camilleri is a doubt.
Catania – Sciacca, Rolin, Augustyn, and Bellusci are absent. Keko, Potenza, and Terracciano are doubts.
Chievo Verona – Paloschi, Papp, Sardo, and Squizzi are absent.
Fiorentina – Camporese and Llama are absent. Aquilani is a doubt.
Genoa – Ferronetti, de Anselmo, Velazquez, Rossi, and Vargas are absent. Merkel and Borrellio are doubts.
Internazionale – Stankovic, Sneijder, Nagatomo, Mariga, and Chivu are absent.
Palermo – Hernandez, Mantovani, Milanovic, and Zahavi are absent.
Parma – Santacroce, Lucarelli, and Benalouane are absent. Arteaga and Palladino are doubts.
Pescara – Colucci, Cosic, Savelloni, Crescenzi, and Terlizzi are absent. Chiaretti and Balzano are doubts.
AS Roma – Lobont is absent. Totti, Osvaldo, Burdisso, Destro, and Dodo are doubts.
Sampdoria – Gastaldello, Obiang, Poli, and Pozzi are absent. Poulsen and Eder are doubts.
Siena – Bogdani, Campagnolo, Larrondo, Martinez, and Ze Eduardo are absent. Rosina is a doubt.
Torino – Darmian, Santana, Suciu, and Verdi are absent. Ogbonna is a doubt.
Udinese – Badu, Basta, Mazzarani, Muriel, and Pasquale are absent. Angella is a doubt.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Suduva Marijampole – No news.
Banga Gargzdai – E.Grigaitis, M.Bitinas, and A.Staponka are absent.
Ekranas Panevezys – No absentees.
Dainava – No news.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Lechia Gdansk – Grzelczak, Malkowski, Bajic, and Airapetian are absent.
Slask Wroclaw – Pawelec is absent. Voskamp, Stevanovic, and Diaz return.
Polonia Warsaw – Kokoszka, Dieme, and Holota are absent. Baszczynski returns.
Ruch Chorzow – Janoszka is absent. Lisowski and Smektala are doubts.
Polish Liga 1:
Dolcan Zabki – Leszczynski is absent.
Tychy 71 – Tumicz and Kupczak are absent.
LKS Lodz – Jurkowski and Salski are doubts.
Sandecja Nowy Sacz – Kosiorowski, Wisniewski, and Szymura are absent. Aleksander is a doubt.
Flota Swinoujscie – Opalacz and Jasinski are absent.
Cracovia Krakow – Jarabica and Budzinski are absent.
Warta Poznan – No news.
Polonia Bytom – Baran is absent.
Kolejarz Stroze – Gryzlak and Kowalczyk are absent.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz – Maka and Wojcicki are absent.
Romanian Liga:
Steaua Bucharest – Szukala is absent.
Pandurii Targu Jiu – Ibeh, Vlad, and Ungurasanu are absent.
Vaslui – Annang, Balaur, Salageanu, and Temwanjera are absent.
Universitatea Cluj – No absentees.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid – Arda Turan is absent.
Real Betis Balompie – Chica, Mario, Benat, and Fabricio are absent.
Espanyol – Albin and Alvarez are absent.
Getafe – Barrada is absent.
Granada – Floro Flores, Brahimi, Yebda, Rico, and Benitez are absent.
Levante – Ballesteros and Dudka are absent.
Osasuna – Bertran is absent.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – Arana is absent.
Real Sociedad – Bravo, Elustondo, and Zurutuza are absent.
Real Zaragoza – Aranda, Gonzalez, Romaric, Pinter, and Obradovic are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Goteborg – Lund and Dyrestam are absent.
AIK Solna – No absentees.
Kalmar FF – Solheim, Mendes, and Wasta are absent.
Malmo FF – No absentees.
IFK Norrkoping – Starting eleven confirmed as Nilsson, da Cruz, Skjonsberg, Wiklander, Floren, Dalence, Gerson, A.Johansson, Tkalcic, Thorvaldsson, and Nyman.
Elfsborg Boras – Jawo is absent.