TFT Issue 538!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Sevilla CF vs Real Mallorca – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga encounter between Sevilla CF and Real Mallorca in Andaluscia.
Sevilla look a totally different side under Michel this season. They work harder than they used to whilst actually defending with some purpose. It makes a nice change to see that as Sevilla haven’t really been a big club in the Primera Liga for some years, truth be told. Now that their work-rate has returned, Sevilla may well start to compete for a UEFA Champions League place once more. There are no question marks over their ability to attack and score goals with Jesus Navas on the flank and Alvaro Negredo up front. Even Reyes still has his uses although I doubt he’ll ever reach those dizzying heights that he once found with Sevilla. Imagine what a wide-game Sevilla could play if he did, though, with him on one side and Navas on the other! Anyway, they’ve got plenty of attacking options with Manu and Rakitic also in the mix so the absence of Trochowski today shouldn’t be fatal. I’m in two minds about the absence of Medel because nobody is as good at winning the ball back as he is in the Sevilla team but at the same time, nobody is more likely to get sent off than the crazy Chilean. Still, Mallorca aren’t great at attacking and I think Sevilla should have more than enough to keep them under wraps by playing their pressing game and taking their chances so I’m keen to give Sevilla faith for this game.
I rate Caparros as a manager and there’s no doubt that he’s steadied the ship at Mallorca since his arrival. However, Mallorca are no closer to impressing me on the road than they’ve ever been and I can’t fully explain why. I mean, they’ve never been the greatest at scoring goals, which doesn’t help. However, the Primera Liga has four sides that typically give 50% less when playing away from home, which are namely Real Mallorca, Espanyol, Getafe, and Real Sociedad. I can’t explain why they do what they do but those sides almost never show up away from home. Mallorca’s main strength is being able to frustrate sides with their solid defence. Well, with old hand Nunes and full-back Lopez both out today, it’s hard to see them keeping out a rampant Sevilla side. Mallorca lost at home against a weak Granada side, which was a depressing result, and I doubt that they’ll fare any better in Andaluscia tonight, especially with forwards Victor and Nsue both out too.
For me, Sevilla are well worth a punt to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Verdict: Sevilla CF to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Additional games
Fredrikstad vs Brann Bergen – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.
In the Eliteserien, it’s generally prudent not to oppose Fredrikstad at home and not to back Brann away. Today, I’m going to go against both of those unwritten rules for varying reasons.
Fredrikstad are generally good at home because of their excellent support. They’re widely-reputed to have the best fans in Norway and to be honest, they need them because their number of quality players remaining is at exactly zero, for my money. Last year, it was Piiroja, Borges, and Elyounoussi that bailed them out time and time again. This year, all three have moved on and Fredrikstad look in a really bad way because of it. They’re still not easy to beat at home because of their determination and pressurising style. Subsequently, Fredrikstad will usually snatch a token goal at home but have also tasted a lot of defeats at the back-end of this season, losing four out of their last six home games. Fredrikstad have only kept one clean sheet during those six home games so you can see precisely where their problems come from.
Really, this tip is all about which Brann Bergen shows up. Brann can and will concede against anyone; that’s a given. However, they’re also capable of outscoring any side in Norway when it suits them and although it usually doesn’t suit them away from home, I do think that they’ll manage it today. After all, the only sides from their last five games to beat Brann whilst Brann have been the away side have had artificial turf at their stadiums, which Brann aren’t used to. I’ve yet to see a defence in Norway that can handle Akabueze, Askar, Ojo, Huseklepp, Nordkvelle, Mjelde etc. – whichever combination Skarsfjord plays. This side has plenty of pace and finesse and as attacking them is one of the more stupid things to do (as they counter-attack in deadly fashion) I find the odds intriguing on them beating lowly Fredrikstad today with their hosts needing the points far more than they do.
For me, taking Brann with draw no bet cover at 6/5 is interesting as they’re simply a better side than Fredrikstad. Brann’s dreams of a UEFA Europa League place are not yet gone with the possibility that Tromso will win the NM Cupen, which would mean that Brann Bergen are in pole position (assuming that they win today) to challenge Stromsgodset for third place. The gap would be seven points but with Stromsgodset still to face Rosenborg BK, that dream may still be alive for Brann. Either way, I find value in the away win with draw no bet cover as long as Brann work hard here.
Verdict: Brann Bergen to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Kayserispor vs Istanbul BB – home win with draw no bet at 4/5.
The majority of bookies are shorter than 4/5 for this selection but Bwin have happily stepped up to the plate to offer 4/5, which suits me just fine.
Kayserispor appointed former Croatia legend Robert Prosinecki as the new boss for the outgoing Sota and I think he’ll have a decent impact here. Turkey’s Super Lig is one of the harder leagues to adjust to if you’re not one of the managers who have always been in it, in my view. However, Prosinecki’s attacking style combined with the dangerous attack of Kayserispor makes me think that they’ll do well, at least to start with.
You’re all familiar with the affect that a new manager has on a team, with it usually bringing a positive result. Hopefully that’ll be the case today and I think that Kayserispor have enough in their arsenal to make it happen. Bobo is a deadly striker at this level; all he requires is the service that he once got at Besiktas JK to make it happen. Cangele – when fit – alongside Mouche and Biseswar are all capable attacking players too. Throw midfielder Cleyton into the mix and you have a side that can score goals, in my view. Kayserispor are notoriously strong at home and they have a strong record against Istanbul BB in Kayseri, beating them for three consecutive home games in all competitions.
Istanbul BB have beaten Kayserispor just once in their last eight attempts in all competitions, which shows that they do tend to struggle against their hosts. That’s not because they’re not a good side because they are. I actually rate Istanbul BB quite highly but I just find them lacking in motivation far too often, to be honest. Webo is a good target man and the team is packed full of hard-working individuals so the core is there for them to be a good side. However, the only time that they become a potent side is when they’re facing their more illustrious local rivals, which obviously isn’t the case today. Against Galatasaray, Besiktas, and Fenerbahce, Istanbul BB look sensational at times. Against everyone else, they tend to disappoint in the majority of their games. Quite how this side can draw with Besiktas, win at Bursaspor, and then go on to lose at home against Genclerbirligi is beyond me. It’s all about motivation for this side and hopefully they won’t have it today, which does tend to be the case in their away games. Kayserispor are hard to handle at home because they score goals, though, which is one obstacle that Istanbul BB do not enjoy facing.
Therefore, I really do think that the odds on Kayserispor winning this game are far too long. These two sides can be somewhat explosive at times, hence the risk element, but I would be surprised if Prosinecki’s first game in charge ended in defeat today. For me, Kayserispor winning with draw no bet cover is appealing at 4/5.
Verdict: Kayserispor to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Team news
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovan Liberec – Bicik and Ljulka are doubts.
Mlada Boleslav – Zahustel, Smejkal, Rolko, Chramosta, and Sirl are absent.
Danish Superligaen:
AGF Aarhus – Norregard is absent. K.Povlsen and S.Larsen return.
Randers – Fenger and Keller return.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku – Diallo, Parviainen, and Paajanen are absent.
TPS Turku – Makinen is absent.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Aho is absent. Jonke returns.
IFK Mariehamn – Trafford is absent.
Haka Valkeakoski – Pesonen is absent.
FC Honka Espoo – Yaghoubi returns.
HJK Helsinki – No absentees.
FC Lahti – Kari, Veltheim, and Tynkkynen are absent. Grossohmichen is a doubt.
KuPS Kuopio – Nissinen, Ilo, and James are absent. Holopainen and Purje return.
VPS Vaasa – No absentees.
MyPa Anjalankoski – No absentees.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Reintam, Saksela, Korte, Markkanen, van Gelderen, and Wusu are absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Cohen and Vermouth are absent. Pantsil is a doubt.
Maccabi Haifa – Davidovic, Amasha are absent. Turgeman is a doubt. Twatha, Ndluvo, and Golasa return.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Pogon Szczecin – Lawa is absent. Bonin is a doubt.
Legia Warsaw – Efir, Wolski, Saganowski, and Jedrzejczyk are absent.
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Benfica II – No absentees.
Vitoria Guimaraes II – Goncalo, Amorim, Fabio Fortes, and Marquinhos are absent.
Romanian Liga:
Concordia Chiajna – Bambara and Puerce are absent.
CSMS Iasi – No absentees.
Dinamo Bucharest – Ba is absent.
Rapid Bucharest – Constantin and Grigore are absent. Galuber and Rui Duarte are doubts. New boss – Rada (former Assistant Manager).
Spanish Primera Liga:
Sevilla CF – Botia, Palop, Trochowski, and Medel are absent.
Real Mallorca – Nunes, Lopez, Victor, Nsue, Marquez, and Gimenez are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Djurgarden – Ostberg, Oyal, Span, Riddez, and Pedersen are absent.
GAIS Goteborg – Tamandi is absent. Gustafsson is a doubt.