TFT Issue 64!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured gameValerenga Oslo vs Aalesund – home win with -1.5 handicap at 7/5.
Today’s featured game is the Eliteserien game in Norway between Valerenga Oslo and Aalesund. Hosts Valerenga Oslo had a good campaign last season and similar things are expected for the talented hosts in the current campaign whereas last season’s over-achievers Aalesund are expected to struggle following summer departures.
Hosts Valerenga Oslo somehow won at Viking Stavanger last match despite injury issues and they bring momentum into this game as a result. Along with Rosenborg BK, the hosts have one of the strongest squads in Norway and I think it’ll show this year. The departure of Abdellaoue last season did damage to the team but they possess a lethal threesome in attack with Morten Berre in attack being supported by pacey Shelton and strong Kone, although the latter are both doubts today. Nonetheless, Valerenga simple ooze goals with the likes of Strand, Singh, and Dos Santos in midfield and that should show today, just as it did in their opening Eliteserien game. The potential absences of Shelton and Kone are expected to be overlooked again as seventeen-year old promising striker Havard Nielsen, who scored on his debut, looks set to feature again alongside Berre and Nigerian Ogude. With Haestad sat in front of the back four and with the experience of Stoor and Muri in front of ex-Tromso goalkeeper Hirschfeld, it looks unlikely that Valerenga will concede in this game. Valerenga play attractive attacking football and although it’s still early season, I fancy them to do what they did last season by beating Aalesund comfortably here.
Visitors Aalesund simply aren’t the same side as last season, as I mentioned during my preview of their game at home against newly-promoted Fredrikstad. They still have the determined and able Kjetil Rekdal at the helm but even he can’t work magic, as much as he’d like to believe he can! They lost their first home game of the season at home against Fredrikstad in a game that highlighted all of the problems that await them this season i.e. a lack of quality. They lost goalkeeper Lindegaard to Manchester United, midfielder Mathiesen to Lierse SK, target man Aaroy to JEF United, midfielder Arneng to Syrianska Sodertalje, and striker Roberts to Sarpsborg 08. Aalesund are barely recognisable to the side that they were last season and the big problem that faces them as a result is that they play as a unit, not as a side that can utilise talented individuals to bail them out sometimes. They either function or they don’t and currently, they absolutely don’t function. They signed Nigerian attacker Okoronkwo from Saturn Moscow Oblast and he should do well when he’s settled in but when will that be? They’ve only had him for about a month and he’s yet to play a game for them. With no Aaroy in attack, who will win their headers? They’ve got energy in midfield to annoy sides but with the likes of Morrison and Barrantes having only just returned from international duty having been playing for Jamaica and Costa Rica respectively, can we expect the same energy today? I don’t think so. Aalesund also have doubts over Larsen in midfield and given that midfield is Aalesund’s sole remaining decent aspect of their team, I really fear for them here. They lost at home to a semi-decent Fredrikstad without the visitors needing Lady Luck whatsoever, which speaks volumes, in my view. Aalesund are going to need some time to adjust to their losses, especially the departure of Lindegaard, which is clearly still troubling Rekdal as he signed Swedish goalkeeper Sandqvist from Atromitos in Greece just a week ago following an unconvincing display from new youngster Grytebust in goal against Fredrikstad. This side is in something of a turmoil – well, as much as a side with a nutcase like Rekdal in charge can be in a “turmoil” – and this is not the away game that you want with such problems in defence as Valerenga are arguably the most potent side in the Eliteserien currently.
To top it off, this game is played on natural grass, something Aalesund notoriously struggle with as their beloved home ground Color Line Stadion has an artificial turf, which normally works in Aalesund’s favour. Their away games without it tend to yield disappointing results, however, and with so many things going against them today, I cannot see them getting a result at a vastly superior Valerenga Oslo side. For me, the -1.5 handicap is too generously priced on the hosts here, irrespective of their potentially absent strikers. The price is far too reflective of Aalesund last season rather than Aalesund this season so my call is Valerenga to beat the -1.5 handicap here at 7/5.
Team news – Valerenga Oslo have doubts over Kone and Shelton whereas Aalesund have doubts over Morrison and Larsen.
Verdict: Valerenga Oslo to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 7/5.
Additional game:Ferencvaros vs Ujpest – home win at evens.
I’m being bold and entering a Budapest derby here but I have to fancy Ferencvaros for this game.
The derby couldn’t have come at a better time for Ferencvaros as they really need a booster following back-to-back defeats. They were humiliated here 0-5 by league leaders Fehervar a couple of weeks ago, which emphasised how much work giants Ferencvaros have left to do. They followed that up with a 1-0 defeat at a good Gyori ETO FC side and although the statistics make it look bad for Ferencvaros, we have to face up to the fact that they’ve lost to two of the Soproni Liga’s better sides at the moment and although Ferencvaros wish they were still one of the top dogs in Hungarian football, they’re not back there just yet, although I’m sure they will be soon enough with their new investor!
Back on home turf and against familiar opponents, Ferencvaros will be raring to go and they do love their home games! They’ve won seven out of ten on their home turf this season and their enthusiastic displays under Prukner have finally made them look something like the side that they once were. The Ferencvaros job is virtually one that cannot be done due to their outlandish expectations without the appreciation that times have changed but Prukner is doing a fantastic job and the Ferencvaros fans recognise that. He’s assembled a side around Heinz in attack and with the necessary support of Schembri and Rosa from midfield, Ferencvaros can be a very potent goal threat and thus I fancy them to do some damage today.
Ujpest are a side I don’t like to bet against in this kind of game, however, so you know it’s taken a lot for me to back the home win here! I don’t like betting against Ujpest in this type of match because they tend to turn up against the bigger sides and not the other sides due to their youthful nature but proud mannerisms due to the size and stature of the club. The appointment of Meszoly to lead this financially bereft side was a superb one as the Ujpest fans love him and he’s a very good and experienced manager. He’ll help Ujpest beat the drop and maintain their league placing, I’m quite sure. However, this game against Ferencvaros will most likely push him beyond his comfort zone because it’s going to take a superb Ujpest display to get a result here. Ujpest lost three important players over the winter break – Simon, Korcsmar, and Tisza – and Ujpest have done their usual scavenging for cheap and efficient replacements. In addition to the above, Ujpest had further bad news over the winter break with captain and integral defender Vermes being ruled out for the majority of the season through injury. To top that off, Ujpest also miss Kiss and Kovacs today, the former of which is more relevant as he’s an important defender for Ujpest. So, to break that down – Ujpest miss two of their regular back four, they sold one of their other essential defenders Korcsmar, and parted with their best midfielder in emerging winger Simon, who left on loan to join Feyenoord Rotterdam. Ujpest may have fought like troopers since their return from the winter break but this game really should be a bridge too far for them with a makeshift defence out there.
This game means a lot to both sides so approach with caution. However, the advantage is definitely with Ferencvaros today, in my view, so my call is the home win at evens.
Team news – Ferencvaros miss Maroti Bela whereas Ujpest miss Vermes, Kiss, and Kovacs.
Verdict: Ferencvaros to win at evens.
Illichivets Mariupol vs Shakhtar Donetsk – Illichivets Mariupol to win with a +1.5 goal head start.
There is only one way to approach this game, in my view, and that’s by giving Illichivets a head start.
Why? Well, consider first of all that Illichivets are a feeder club of Shakhtar’s. Literally 85% of Illichivets’ team this season is on loan from Shakhtar Donetsk so they’re not going to want to anger their parent club by providing a shock result. However, Shakhtar Donetsk don’t want to upset their feeder club so the usual agreement in Ukraine is that there’s a narrow victory for the parent club, just as it was at the Donbass Arena earlier this season with Shakhtar winning 1-0. In this game, Shakhtar are not going to be going full-throttle for the win; why should they? They’re comfortably clear at the top of the table, they have a massive game at Nou Camp next week against Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League (which chairman Akmetov has already made clear is the priority this season), they miss star defender Chygrynskiy for this game as he’s injured, and they also have the cap on foreign players being fielded in each game as a continual problem. Shakhtar can’t defend without Chygrynskiy so I expect them to at least concede here. They are most likely going to rest players and play a half-hearted game of football on what should be a torrid pitch as to avoid injuries. They need to field at least four Ukrainian players in their squad nowadays and that’s a struggle for them, especially without Chygrynskiy and with Gai a doubt too, so they’ll most likely be under-strength here. Midfielder Jadson has only just got back from England after playing for Brazil against Scotland. Srna has been playing in Georgia and France for Croatia. Rakitskiy played against Italy for Ukraine just a few days ago. Eduardo still isn’t fit.
Anyone else getting the idea that Shakhtar winning this game whilst being priced at 1/4 is a bit of a joke? There may be the old fix in place for them to win this game, of course – that’s not something I’d rule out – but they’re still not worth 1/4 here. Note how Shakhtar score half as many goals away from home as they do at home in the Premier League. The reasoning behind that is because their home turf at the Donbass Arena suits their passing game whereas most Ukrainian side have shit home grounds with bumpy pitches, which doesn’t suit Shakhtar’s “Barcelona” style of football. With a +1.5 goal head start, Illichivets have won eight out of eleven home games this season. With a +1.5 goal advantage for the home side in Shakhtar’s away games in the Premier League this season, Shakhtar have lost seven out of eleven away games this season.
With the above in mind, I think giving Illichivets a +1.5 goal head start against Shakhtar at 5/6 is a good value bet today. If that doesn’t interest you then I’d recommend leaving this game alone entirely!
Team news – Shakhtar Donetsk miss Chygrynskiy.
Verdict: Illichivets Mariupol to win with a +1.5 goal head start at 5/6.