TFT Issue 547!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Udinese vs Catania – home win at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Serie A game between Udinese and Catania.
I’m not normally the biggest advocate of backing Udinese, in all honesty. I respect them an awful lot as a unit, as a side that is hard to beat, and a side that never loses its spirit. The fact is that they’re not a very good goalscoring side, however. Now, you’re more than welcome to come and say to me that they scored three goals at Roma at weekend and I’ll then laugh at you and point out that there isn’t a side in Serie A that Roma can keep out with any kind of conviction. Let’s also point out that the referees had a huge bearing on Udinese scoring three goals too.
Jokes aside, though, Udinese should be able to beat Catania today. Catania’s main weapon in this league is their tenacity and frankly Udinese are more than capable of matching that as that’s what they do too. The difference between the two sides is that Catania will rashly push forward and try to score goals whilst conceding due to their high defensive line whereas Udinese will shrewdly calculate the best way to defeat their opponents whilst fully taking into account the fact that they don’t score many goals themselves. Subsequently, you’ll rarely see Udinese beating the handicap against any side; they play to win games to nil as they know they’re better at defending than they are at goalscoring, especially with such an energetic midfield. Di Natale is a good striker and will score goals with service but chances are not plentiful with Udinese so we need him to be at his best here, even with Catania’s samba defending. Confidence is high in the camp, though, and Udinese have only conceded in two out of their last five Serie A games. Indeed, they’ve already demonstrated their tactical prowess by beating AC Milan at home so yeah – I rate Udinese in this game, especially with their convincing head-to-head record against Catania.
On the sly, I’m actually a bit of a Catania fan, truth be told. I guess the list never ends of clubs you follow/like when you’re in this business as I’ve also been a “fan” of Roma and Atalanta over the years but Catania are the side I like most at the moment. This side play with great determination and belief, which is refreshing to see. They keep the ball, they play good football, and they’re quite simply never easy to play against. They may be easy to score against (well, at least outside of Sicily) but they’re not easy to go and beat – or at least that’s how it was. The problem Catania now have – and it’s a glaring problem – is their inability to put the ball in the net. This side creates a plethora of chances per game, which they even did at the San Siro against Internazionale recently, but they simply cannot take those chances. Missing Maxi Lopez much? I think so, and it ain’t just the Argentinians at the club that do either! Catania have played nine Serie A games this season and they’ve not scored in five of them. That simply isn’t their style, you know? Every time they encounter quality or a stiff defensive wall, they simply can’t find the net. Bergessio’s pace and skill is a threat but having him as your only credible striker isn’t good enough, especially when he’s proven on innumerate occasions over the years that he buckles under pressure. Gomez, Barrientos, Izco, Almiron – they’re all very gifted midfielders but that’s precisely what they are; midfielders. They need a target man and they don’t have one. In addition to that, the influential Barrientos is out today, which is a pretty big problem for Catania. Additionally, key defenders Legrottaglie, Marchese, and Bellusci all miss out for Catania. I think Catania have struck gold in the sense that they’re playing against goal-shy Udinese with this crippled defence but I still think that they’ll lose this game, to be honest. If Catania lined up against Roma with so many defenders out then they’d ship four or five goals; no question. Udinese, though? They can score goals but it’s not their forté.
So, yeah – I like Udinese to win this one at 9/10. I think they’ll get the first goal because Catania require a specific side to play against in order for them to create and score chances and Udinese don’t plan an open enough game to allow them to do so. I like a cheeky bet on Udinese winning to nil but to be honest, there’s more than enough value in Udinese purely winning this one at 9/10 as Catania should be ripe for a beating here.
Verdict: Udinese to win at 9/10.
Additional games
Racing Genk vs Standard de Liege – home win at 9/10.
I’m not the biggest fan of Genk but this side knows how to score goals and how to win games at home. They’ve proven to be strangely hard to beat this season, which is intriguing as their defence really isn’t that strong, in my view. With goalscoring, though, they know how to cause sides problems. Vossen is still taking all of his chances but the addition of Joseph-Monrose is the one that has awakened my interest the most as the pace of the former Kortrijk attacker is simply too much for most Belgian defences to handle. Throw into the mix the newcomer De Ceulaer and experienced Thomas Buffel and you have a Genk side that can and will score goals, even without the departed De Bruyne. It’s nice to see Hyland finally playing as he should, too – he was immense under Dury for Zulte-Waregem a couple of years ago and is capable of doing great things if he shakes off that typical Caribbean laziness/complacency. Genk are playing with confidence and are scoring goals, though, as I’ve said – that makes them dangerous here.
Standard de Liege can match Genk and possibly even better them if they feel inclined. However, not all is well in their camp right now with players reportedly unhappy at the sacking of boss Jans. The quality is still there in their midfield and their fans are crazy enough to steer them to win any game (see highlights of the derby against Anderlecht for details as to how!) but they have little cohesion and some players are reportedly not too keen to be playing football right now. I’m sure that Ogunjimi will be keen to impress against his old club today (if he plays), as will Pocognoli, but I just don’t fear this Standard side, especially not away from home. They can score goals but their horrendous attempts at defending are suicidal, to say the least. Things will improve under Rednic, I’m sure, but for now, Standard are not the side that they should be and it’ll take more than a 2-1 win against Cercle Brugge to convince me otherwise.
Therefore, I do think that there’s value in taking Genk to win this game at 9/10, especially as they’ve won five out of their last six home games against Standard and because they’ve not lost against Standard at all in six consecutive meetings.
Verdict: Racing Genk to win at 9/10.
Cercle Brugge vs Germinal Beerschot – home win at 7/5.
This is plainly the riskiest clall of the day, hence the long odds. I like the tip a lot, though, I have to confess.
Look, Cercle Brugge are not that bad of a side, gents. They’re bottom of the Eerste Klasse due to a poor start to the season but they’re really not bad at all. They can knock the ball around nicely enough and although the form chart doesn’t show it, their performances have drastically improved lately. Let’s not ignore the fact that they’ve taken on in-form Zulte-Waregem and Standard de Liege away from home lately and I’d cross them off the “Can we win this game?” list even if they were playing well. Losing at home against Mechelen wasn’t ideal as Mechelen struggle on the road but progress is slow work when applied correctly. Cercle Brugge may have left it too late to ultimately avoid the drop but they’re a better side than statistics portray, basically. Staelens intelligently brought in Icelandic legend Gudjohnsen to score all of their goals and would you believe it – the class act has bagged three in three and there’ll be more to come too. This kind of run gives the team a lift and things suddenly don’t look so bleak. Defensively, they’re still at sixes and sevens and I don’t see that changing. However, I rate their ability to score goals now that Gudjohnsen is in town and I think they’ve demonstrated enough improvement to be given a chance here.
Helpfully, Germinal’s ability to win away from Antwerp is somewhere close to zero. Speaking of sides that can’t defend, take a look at Germinal’s record ever since they parted company with Kagelmacher and you’ll see why this side struggles. I like their ability to score goals but perhaps I’m being too complimentary to them here as the majority of their attacking prowess goes through Losada, who is frankly too good for this club. I like that they snapped up Veselinovic as he’s a clever striker but take Losada out of this team and Koster’s team looks bereft of ideas. Germinal are good on their own turf with their fans behind them and their samba style to hand but away from home, they really struggle and that’s something that they’re notorious for in Belgium year upon year, not just for this year. They’ve quite seriously got one of the worst away records that I’ve ever seen in my life and I think that they’ll struggle against a rejuvenated Cercle Brugge side today too.
For me, 7/5 on Cercle Brugge is too long so taking them to win is my call here.
Verdict: Cercle Brugge to win at 7/5.
Huesca vs Barcelona II – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Phwoar! 5/6 on any Barcelona II game going over 2.5 goals is a steal, in my eyes. Pinnacle Sports are the generous donators today with most bookies having shorter odds so I’d recommend heading there for the best odds on this game.
Huesca are hard to beat at home and Barcelona II are samba as hell and will attack from start to finish. Huesca have the experience to frustrate Barcelona II, at least for a while, but no side in the Segunda Liga can properly restrain the promising Catalan kids and I doubt Huesca will be the exception, even with the impressive Sergi Roberto out for today’s game.
Defensively, Barcelona II have been decimated for this game for a variety of reasons. Regular shotstopper Olazabal is out and so are Balliu, Alex Grimaldo, and captain Ilie Sanchez, which means that this easy-to-score-against Barcelona II side is even easier to score against today. Even Sergi Juste is out for this game too and he’s one of their back-ups! Edgar Ie is expected to debutise in defence and that speaks for itself, really. Happily, Gerard Delofeu, Rafinha, and Sergi Lopez will play here despite rumours suggesting that they’d be with the senior team, which means that Barcelona II will have attacking threats and will most likely score at least once here.
You do have to favour Huesca here, though. They’ve got a terrific opportunity to beat a side that is frankly better than they are and I’m curious to see if they’ll take that opportunity or not. They’re not great goalscorers themselves but former Rangers hitman Nacho Novo is back today and even Nunez and Tariq can score against an unrecognisable Barcelona II defence. Amusingly enough, Huesca’s defensive pillar Rivas misses out today and that means that they can’t play their usual defensive game. When facing Barcelona II, you have to assume that they’re going to score against you so I expect Huesca to actually try to attack them today. If they do that then they should have some joy.
Still, I won’t dare pick a winner in this strange mismatch. I very much like the look of over 2.5 goals at 5/6 with all of the above taken into consideration, however.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Internazionale vs Sampdoria – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
A lot of people will look at the form chart here and nail the Internazionale handicap. Good luck to them too! Maybe their methods are more effective than mine; who knows?
However, I much prefer to look at why a side is winning games rather than just looking to see that they are winning games. I think it’s quite stupid to assume that Inter are back to their best because they’ve strung a few wins together and yet I’m sure that some people will jump on them solely for that reason. I like the spirit that Inter are playing with and I think that they’re more than capable of winning any game in Italy. However, there are other factors to take into consideration here, in my view.
Firstly, Inter have a huge game with Juventus at weekend. If Inter take the lead here, I’ll be surprised to see them go all out for a heavy win, you know? Beating Juventus is far, far more important to these passionate Inter fans.
Secondly, Inter play well against the sides that attack them because they’ve got tremendous pace. They can exploit gaps really well and they will cause problems, especially with that pesky little virus of a man better known as Cassano. However, the sides that Inter and their new style are not so well-equipped to beat are those that park the bus. The reason for that is because Inter rarely have enough men in the box to make their crosses count and they don’t do enough through the middle of the park unless Coutinho has a good game. Catania, AC Milan, Bologna – they’re all perfect opponents for Inter. Go and watch how much they struggled against Partizan Belgrade and you’ll see what I mean, though. Inter tend to look very ordinary against such opponents and without Sneijder available to Inter today, I have even more doubts than usual over their ability to penetrate Sampdoria here.
I’m not going to make stupid claims that Sampdoria can match Inter because they can’t. However, they can potentially outsmart them by parking the bus. Inter’s defence is susceptible if Sampdoria feel inclined to exploit it, although to be honest, Sampdoria aren’t very good at that. There’s a good reason that Sampdoria haven’t been whipped yet and it’s because their back four have a strong level of cohesion and because they don’t often leave their own half. Maxi Lopez is good at holding the ball up so the ball doesn’t just keep coming back when they clear it – we need to hope that he passes a late fitness test to play, though! There’s plenty of battlers in front of that defence, though, and that’s why Sampdoria still haven’t conceded more than two goals in any game this season.
In my view, Sampdoria are the perfect side to cause the typical “Wednesday night upset”, as I call it. I think people will overestimate Internazionale’s recent run of form and underestimate Sampdoria because of theirs. The reality is that both runs have involved a significant level of luck and that level might just balance out here with the above taken into consideration. For me, under 2.5 goals looks very, very interesting indeed at 9/10.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Juventus vs Bologna – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Similarly, you do have to expect Juventus to have their eyes on the game with Inter at weekend rather than this one. I don’t think that they’re daft enough to assume that this will be an easy win (especially after the draw here last season) but without the influential trio of Lucio, Marchisio, and Vidal, I do think that this Juventus side will lack backbone and organisation today. They’re not short of quality, tenacity, or finesse – they’re all there in abundance. Juventus are more than capable of scoring a number of goals against an unsteady Bologna defence and could break the over 2.5 goals mark by themselves if they feel like it. I expect a more unconvincing Juventus side to show up today, though – I think those three are really important when it comes to motivating the others and a determined Bologna side could really get to them today.
Bologna are a much better attacking side than they’re given credit for, albeit far moreso at home than on the road. Their defence still needs a lot of work following the pre-season sales but their attack is one of the strongest in Serie A for my money. Not many sides can call upon four good strikers to help them out but Bologna have that privelege. It won’t be easy for them with Diamanti and Acquafresca out but Gilardino and Gabbiadini are more than capable replacements, particularly the former. This Bologna side has already won at AS Roma this season and they gave Internazionale a good game at weekend with both games cruising over 2.5 goals. I think Bologna are more than capable of causing a potentially distracted Juventus side a lot of problems here and thus over 2.5 goals appeals to me.
I can’t see Bologna keeping a clean sheet here and I do think that they’ll score too. With that in mind, over 2.5 goals is appealing at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Lazio vs Torino – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
This one follows a very similar route to the preview for the Inter vs Sampdoria game except that Lazio are even less able to crack tough defences than Inter are!
I do love the Lazio mentality, though – they’re such nutters! They figured the best way to fight back in Florence at weekend was to…well, quite literally fight back. They went from 1-0 down with eleven men to 1-0 down with ten men and then 1-0 down with nine men before eventually losing 2-0. What is the point of such stupid antics? Now they miss their best player by far for this game – Hernanes – through suspension and battleaxe Ledesma, which basically means that Lazio’s midfield will be a joke today with Ederson still on the sidelines. I’ve no doubts whatsoever over the finesse and movement of veteran hitman Klose, nor the ability of the unfavoured Zarate, but if Candreva is dictating what happens in your midfield then not a lot is going to happen. Candreva is more of an energetic midfielder than a patient playmaker, you know? This is the type of game where Lazio desperately need Hernanes to play the incisive passes but his suspension causes Lazio big problems here and the bettors of the world know it, hence the dropping odds.
Happily, 10Bet have kept odds on under 2.5 goals at 4/5, which pleases me greatly. Will Torino leave their own half in this game? Why would they want to do that? They’ve had considerable success in frustrating Palermo, Siena, Sampdoria, and Atalanta thus far with their solid defensive line so why not Lazio too? Ogbonna is a doubt but the rest of the back four is in great shape. There are lots of battlers in midfield and plenty of experience too, both of which are very important here. I doubt Brighi will be the most popular of players here, as a former Roma midfielder, but I’m sure that’ll motivate him even more against the blue-and-white half of Rome. I don’t really see Torino being a big threat to a fairly average Lazio defence because they’re limited as to what they can do. Cerci can make things happen but Bianchi is nothing more than a big target man and you all know what kind of support that requires to be effective. I certainly won’t rule Torino out from winning this game, especially if they take the lead, but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it happening either.
Under 2.5 goals, though – that appeals to me an awful lot at 4/5 with the above in mind, hence my selection.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Atvidaberg vs GIF Sundsvall – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Atvidaberg are getting tired now and it’s no surprise, really. They’ve done bloody well in the Allsvenskan this season with their strong attacking game and incisive finishing! However, the departure of important striker Eriksson has left their finishing a little more wayward than normal despite Prodell putting himself about. That in itself has lessened their confidence and with little motivation remaining, Atvidaberg are expected to quietly ride out this season and prepare for the next.
However, don’t overlook the important of playing good football to this Atvidaberg side. They love to attack and score goals whether they need to or not. Every side that has attacked them has been drawn into an over 2.5 goals game due to Atvidaberg’s pace and attacking threat and that’s what should await us today. GIF Sundsvall need points desperately and nothing but three will help them today. They were humbled 0-4 at home by IFK Norrkoping in their last game so morale is ebbing low and that to me says that they will concede goals here. They’re usually quite good on the road because they can defend and counter-attack very well. That’s simply not an option for them here, though – they must attack and by doing that they expose themselves to a good Atvidaberg side, despite improving their own chances of scoring against a weak Atvidaberg defence. With that in mind, I can only see this game going over 2.5 goals with the proviso that both sides take their chances.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg – home win at 9/10.
Ah, backing Helsingborg at long last. I hope I don’t live to regret this one!
Earlier this season, Helsingborg were bloody awful. They were awful to watch, they didn’t score goals, and they had the entertainment level of a wall. However, times are different now – they’ve looked quite good in the Allsvenskan of late. It’s not difficult to look good against a depressed GAIS Goteborg side, I suppose, but they’ve won three out of their last four Allsvenskan games and have only conceded in two out of those four games so I will be taking them seriously in this big derby. They’ll miss the experienced Andersson at the back today as he’s suspended but the rest of the squad is good enough to do the business here, I feel. Durdic has bagged eight in nine since signing and bringing in former Orebro midfielder Bedoya has dramatically improved the pace that Helsingborg have in midfield. Suddenly, Helsingborg look a lot more mobile and dangerous because of those two acquisitions and if we add old Alvaro Santos and the impressive Nordmark to the mix, not to mention hot prospect Accam, then we have a very potent and dangerous Helsingborg side, in my view.
So – can IFK Goteborg get one over on their old rivals? I can’t see it. Look, it’s definitely not impossible for them to beat Helsingborg as they’ve got a terrific squad at their disposal. They’ve only actually shown their ability on about five occasions this season, though, and they look desperate for the season to end so that they can rebuild. They’ve not scored for two games now, losing to rivals AIK Solna at home and losing at relegation-threatened Orebro in their last game. IFK Goteborg have no motivation, no confidence, and no interest in this game despite it being a big derby. They have little cohesion and their players look nervous due to the intimidating Angelarna fans and I don’t blame them, especially not after they confronted the team and manager at a training session a few weeks ago, demanding action after poor displays. If they were playing well and lacking a bit of luck then I’d avoid this one entirely as IFK Goteborg quite genuinely are a top four side in Sweden with this squad at their disposal. However, given the way that they’ve played lately and the lack of interest that they actually have for this game, I find it impossible to see them resisting a good Helsingborg side today.
For me, Helsingborg really should win this one. Take it with a pinch of salt because it is a big derby, after all. However, Helsingborg look streets ahead of IFK Goteborg right now so the home win appeals to me a lot at 9/10.
Verdict: Helsingborg to win at 9/10.
Team news
Brazilian Serie A:
Atletico Mineiro – Junior Cesar, Rafael Marques are absent.
Flamengo – Maldonado, Airton, and Muralha are absent. Luiz Antonio, Cleber Santana, and Leo Moura return. Rumours suggest that Ibson and Leo Moura will start on the bench.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Capelli, Cigarini, Ferreira Pinto, Ferri, Peluso, and Radovanovic are absent. Biondini and Bellini are doubts.
Bologna – Acquafresca, Curci, Diamanti, Gimenez, Natali, Perez, and Portanova are absent.
Cagliari – Avramov, Camilleri, Cossu, and Pinilla are doubts.
Catania – Augustyn, Barrientos, Legrottaglie, Sciacca, and Marchese are absent. Keko and Belluschi are doubts.
Chievo Verona – Vacek, Squizzi, and Paloschi are absent. Cesar and Sardo are doubts.
Internazionale – Chivu, Coutinho, Juan, Mariga, Sneijder, and Stankovic are absent. Obi is a doubt.
Juventus – Vidal is absent. Marchisio and Lucio are doubts.
Lazio – Ederson, Hernanes, Ledesma, Sculli, and Marchetti are absent. Diakite is a doubt.
SSC Napoli – Zuniga and Cavani are absent.
Parma – Galloppa and Santacroce are absent.
Pescara – Crescenzi, Jonathas, Savelloni, and Terlizzi are absent. Brugman is a doubt.
AS Roma – Balzaretti, Lobont, Taddei, and Tachtsidis are absent.
Sampdoria – Krsticic, Maresca, and Pozzi are absent. Obiang, Munari, and Lopez are doubts.
Siena – Rosina, Rodriguez, Martinez, and Larrondo are absent. Felipe, D’Agostino, Contini, and Campagnolo are doubts.
Torino – Suciu and Sansone are absent. Diop, Santana, and Ogbonna are doubts.
Udinese – Benatia, Mazzarani, Muriel, Pasquale, and Pinzi are absent. Basta is a doubt.
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Huesca – Rivas is absent. Nacho Novo and Carlos Lazaro return.
Barcelona II – Sergi Roberto, Oier Olazabal, Ilie Sanchez, Ivan Balliu, Sergi Juste, and Alejandro Grimaldo are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Atvidaberg – No news.
GIF Sundsvall – Helg is absent.
Helsingborg – Sadiku, Baffo, Uronen, and C.Andersson are absent.
IFK Goteborg – No news.
Kalmar FF – Djordjevic, Arajuuri, Solheim, Mendes, and Wasta are absent.
IFK Norrkoping – Nyman and Tkalcic are absnet.
Djurgarden – Pedersen, Span, and Riddez are absent.
Syrianska Sodertalje – Jawo is absent.