TFT Issue 55!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Flora Tallinn vs Sillamae Kalev – under 2.5 goals at 31/20.
Today’s featured game is the Estonian Meistriliiga game between giants Flora Tallinn and Sillamae Kalev. Atypically, you could be forgiven for thinking that this game has over 2.5 goals written all over it and I could understand that but in all honesty, the odds on under 2.5 goals are too generous today and I’ll explain why.
Flora Tallinn are the best side in Estonia at the moment; fact. Levadia Tallinn’s financial meltdown means that Flora Tallinn are head and shoulders ahead of everyone with Nomme Kalju running just behind them. However, it looks like they’re feeling the pressure more than normal with some rather lacklustre displays thus far and they seem a tad rusty so there’s every reason to think that they may struggle here. They have largely the same side as last season although the departure of Masitsev to Suduva Marijampole in Lithuania has harmed their creativity a little. The fact that Sander Post remained as their target man was a massive, massive boost, however, especially after such an impressive campaign and if Flora Tallinn do win the Meistriliiga this season then it’ll be largely down to him, in my view. However, as I mentioned before, Flora aren’t firing on all cylinders yet and as Sillamae Kalev are a decent side, I think that Flora may just find it hard to score here and thus take the game under 2.5 goals, just like all four of the competitive games that they’ve played thus far have gone.
Visitors Sillamae Kalev are quite a young side but coach Kazatsjonok is notorious for a tough regime and that keeps the players fit and determined, generally speaking. They’ve been playing a tad beneath themselves this season, in my view, with a poor draw at home to Kuressaare, an expected win at newly-promoted Ajax Lasnamae, and a laborious victory over Flora Paide last match. Barring their game against Ajax Lasnamae, both of Sillamae Kalev’s games against inferior opponents have ended in under 2.5 goals games and against the best side in Estonia, I think we’ll see more of the same today. Sillamae Kalev have got largely the same squad as last year although they cleared out all of their Lithuanian players because of match-fixing allegations so they’re about the same strength although they’re not showing it just yet.
If this game was mid-season, I’d think that it should go over 2.5 goals. However, as it’s still early season with both sides yet to find rhythm, I think we’ll see a low-scoring affair. Don’t get me wrong – the odds are good here for a reason! The last eight head-to-heads between these two sides have easily cleared over 2.5 goals so do approach this with caution. However, Flora are looking a bit lacking in cohesion at the moment, bizarrely, and Sillamae Kalev simply aren’t putting the ball in the net enough either. I fully expect Flora Tallinn to win this game today but I think there’s potentially a lot of value in backing under 2.5 goals in this game.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 31/20.