TFT Issue 551!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Super Lig game in Antalya between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor.
Every Super Lig fan knows that Antalya is never an easy place to play – well, unless you’re Antalyaspor, that is! For a multitude of reasons, they’re a home side to never underestimate. They work hard, are capable of counter-attacking in lethal fashion, and don’t concede goals easily. They’ve actually played really well this season with Diarra and Promise looking superb up front. Inceman and Aissati are obviously the catalysts for their form but still – credit must be given where it’s due. However, Antalyaspor’s good displays have predominantly come against sides that either can’t defend or teams that weren’t in the right frame of mind at the time. Take nothing away from Antalyaspor for taking their chances but there are some games that are harder for them to win than others and today’s game is definitely one of them. Antalyaspor have plenty of pace and skill in their ranks to exploit sides on the break but how good are they at breaking down a side that gets men behind the ball very quickly? In my view, they’re not very good in that situation and that’s the predicament that faces them today. I mean, on paper, taking them to win with draw no bet cover is a steal at 5/6, based on their early season form. However, when you take into consideration that they’re taking on the side with arguably the best defence in Turkey, you have to wonder how successful they’ll be.
Trabzonspor haven’t lost here for six out of their last eight meetings so they do know how to play in Antalya, hard though it unquestionably is. Still, keeping Antalyaspor out isn’t something that will concern Trabzonspor massively today. After all, their speciality is defending and frustrating their opponents, which they manage to do worryingly well. Consider that only Fenerbahce and Galatasaray have scored more than a single goal against them since February this year and you’ll see precisely what I mean. Senol Gunes has been around and knows how to get his side to defend properly! Goalscoring is where they’re letting themselves down right now, though. In fact, that’s probably a bit harsh of me as they’re not struggling to score goals; they’re struggling to make the chances required to score goals. You wouldn’t think a side that is so tactically astute would rely on a long ball to towering striker Janko, would you? No, of course not, but that’s precisely what they’re doing, hence their predicament. It’s getting to the point where they have to rely on the pace of Alanzinho and the set pieces of Sapara, which isn’t good enough for what is essentially a top five Super Lig club. If they take the lead, they’ve got a good chance of winning due to their stout midfield and defence. However, not scoring enough goals tends to mean that they’re not winning games, which is a problem. Happily, that does also lead to a lot of under 2.5 goals games, hence my interest here.
The bet of the average bettor today will be to take Antalyaspor to beat Trabzonspor and good luck if you’re one of them. I certainly wouldn’t be so bold as to say that they won’t achieve it because they may. However, my tip is under 2.5 goals, which is where most Super Lig followers are heading too, hence the dropping odds. Trabzonspor can frustrate almost every side in Turkey and Antalyaspor are punching above their weight at the moment. For me, this has to go under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Additional game
Bursaspor vs Kasimpasa – home win at 4/5.
Bursaspor haven’t had a spectacular start to their Super Lig campaign but then again, they’re not really a spectacular side, are they? Bursaspor are the model of efficiency rather than flambuoyancy, unlike title rivals Fenerbahce, Galatasaray, and Besiktas. In Turkey, you have the big Istanbul clubs with the desire to entertain and the only way to force your way into that group is to perfect the art of defending and winning efficiently, which Bursaspor do very well. They’ve not been as clinical in front of goal this season as they should have been, given the chances that they’ve been creating, but then again, that’s their eternal dilemma, isn’t it? Sestak is a decent forward but his tenacity is what makes him invaluable, not to mention his tireless running into channels. Sa Pinto has looked good and Bangura is always a threat, though, so Bursaspor do have options. I especially like that they’ve signed Tuncay Sanli to provide a bit of a playmaker forward in their team; he’s a cracking player. There’s plenty of talented midfielders in the Bursaspor squad with Belluschi and Batalla having ran the show for Bursaspor thus far, so much so that talented Finnish midfielder Forsell is yet to even debutise. I very much like the organisation of this Bursaspor side and the fanatical support that they have at home so I’ll be giving them the opportunity to build on their impressive win in Trabzon lately by winning this game today.
As a team, Kasimpasa are not so easy to beat, really. They’ve improved their squad a lot pre-season and have a habit of scoring goals when it suits them. However, they’ve already lost three out of four on the road this season due to not attacking well enough (well, Uche finds it easier to carry them in their home games, essentially) and for some reason, that has led to them sacking boss Diyadin, the man who made them what they are, the man who got them promoted in the first place. Suffice to say that this hasn’t gone down well with the fans nor the players and that’s understandable. They’ve appointed former Kayserispor boss Sota as their new manager and although it’s still early days, things still aren’t working out too well because he’s trying to make Kasimpasa play football and with the greatest of respect to Kasimpasa, they don’t play football; they play direct tactics, nothing more. Trying to make this side play like Barcelona is like trying to get Spain to play long ball; it ain’t going to happen! Subsequently, Kasimpasa are now conceding goals very easily and aren’t scoring enough of them. Well, those are two traits that you don’t want to be taking to Bursaspor, I assure you. Unless Kasimpasa (or Uchepasa?) produce an outstanding display here, they’re going to lose the game.
For me, there’s value on the home win.
Verdict: Bursaspor to win at 4/5.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory – Finkler is a doubt.
Wellington Phoenix – Pantelis, Sanchez, Pavlovic, and Sigmund are absent.
Argentinian Primera Division:
Tigre – Pio is absent.
Racing Club Avellaneda – No absentees.
Independiente – Gabbarini and Assman are absent.
Atletico Lanus – No absentees.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovan Liberec – Musiol, Mustapha, Toth, Butenin, and Vacha are absent.
Slovacko – Valenta, Kuncl, Fujerik, Kuban, and Kordula are absent.
Danish Superligaen:
Aalborg BK – Augustinussen is absent.
Midtylland – Janssen returns.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Haifa – Boccoli, Elkayam, Yampolski, Tawartha, and Davidovic are absent. Katan and Golasa return.
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – Baruch is a doubt. Hrepka returns.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Pogon Szczecin – Rogalski, Dabrowski, Lawa, Andradina, and Djousse are absent.
Slask Wroclaw – Kelemen and Cwielag should return.
Romanian Liga:
Pandurii Targu Jiu – Ibeh is absent.
Turnu Severin – No absentees.
Petrolul Ploiesti – New boss – Contra.
Concordia Chiajna – Simon, Carstea, and Paraschiv are absent.
Rapid Bucharest – Iliojski, Mihai Roman, and Constantin are absent.
Astra Giurgiu – Matel is absent. Multescu has been fired following an argument with Astra’s president live on TV!
Spanish Primera Liga:
Getafe – Abraham is absent.
Real Betis Balompie – Mario and Fabricio are absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Antalyaspor – Gungor and Janda are absent.
Trabzonspor – Zengin, Colman, and Yumlu are absent.
Bursaspor – Ipek is absent.
Kasimpasa – Coulibaly, Yaman, Aygunes, and Dereli are absent.