TFT Issue 554!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Seven Membership tips on a Friday; I must be insane! Still, let’s see how it goes!
Featured game
Real Betis Balompie vs Granada – home win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga game in Sevilla between Betis and Granada.
This Andalusian derby may not be the main one but it’s a derby nonetheless and people of this region are notorious for their passionate/short-tempered mannerisms. I would be very surprised to see this game end without red cards, in a nutshell.
Derby or not, though, I still really like Betis to win this one. I like how well setup they are, to be blunt. Sure, they’re not great in defence but their ability to break sides down and score goals is uncanny. Molina and Castro have done a great job so far this season and with the amazing Juan Carlos and incisve Benat in midfield, Betis are rarely short of chances to convert. Pepe Mel has a good squad of players here that work very hard collectively and are a tough side to beat because of it. Only in-form Atletico Madrid and a spirited Rayo Vallecano de Madrid have managed to avoid defeat against Betis in Sevilla this season with the other three sides that have come here (including Valencia CF) all losing without even scoring. Betis are a very strong home side and I expect them to continue to prove that today, especially following their morale-boosting 2-4 win at Getafe in Madrid earlier this week.
Visitors Granada are one of my favourites for relegation from the Primera Liga this season. They’re not short of spirit but they’re short of leadership and quality, especially in the final third. They’re decent enough at keeping their opponents out, especially at home, but they’re not good enough at scoring goals. Four consecutive defeats in all competitions lead Granada into this game and it’s hard to see who can turn that around for them. They don’t have a proper target man up front. They don’t have a classy playmaker. They’ve got a lot of players that can be very good but that depends on their moods and how quickly they adapt to Spanish football. Defensively speaking, they’re not bad but they’ll concede goals because that’s what happens in Spain and when they do, they rarely have a response for reasons listed above.
Granada won here last season. I suspect that will still be in the minds of the Betis fans and players. Granada’s squad has changed a lot since then but Betis’ hasn’t. I really fancy Betis to win this one and odds of 4/5 look tempting to me.
Verdict: Real Betis Balompie to win at 4/5.
Additional games
Melbourne Heart vs Brisbane Roar – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Going under 2.5 goals in the A-League always requires a certain level of boldness and luck. Boldness I have but luck is down to the betting Gods!
Melbourne Heart are a plucky side; they’re real battlers. Do they have anything else in their arsenal? Not really, truth be told. Their boss, John Aloisi, has already expressed his pleasure at the absence of Berisha from the Brisbane Roar attack for this game and who can blame him? He needs all the help he can get in order for Melbourne Heart to beat anyone, irrespective of their convincing head-to-head record against Brisbane Roar.
I think Aloisi would be better suited to assessing his own squad ahead of this game, though. Potentially, Heart will be missing three of their regular midfield four with Germano, Fred, and Grella all big doubts here. This side has good target men but not great support from midfield so any absentees there will damage Melbourne Heart. They do like playing Brisbane Roar and I won’t write them off from getting a result here but they struggle too much in front of goal for me to take their threat seriously here.
That said, Brisbane Roar are hardly better-placed than their hosts. They are already showing signs of missing their meticulous coach Postecoglou as they fail to win simple battles all over the field in each game. They’re too easy to defend against and the absence of talismanic striker Berisha causes them a great headache today, especially when it comes to scoring goals. Brisbane Roar still function well as a unit and they’re a tough nut to crack but they’re not a very dangerous attacking side at the moment and it’s hard to envision them retaining their A-League crown unless things improve rapidly.
For me, we should see a very droll encounter here. Two sides that work hard and offer little in the final third should really see this game go under 2.5 goals at 9/10, especially with both sides keen for the points at the moment and thus being more likely to sit on any lead that they get.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
NK Zagreb vs Hajduk Split – away win at 11/10.
NK Zagreb have a new manager; who’d have thought it with just one loss in their past four games?!
It’s fair to say that Bonacic has had an immediate impact since his appointment as boss and NK Zagreb look an ok side again. I won’t go overboard because they’re still shit but they’re better than at least two or three Prva Liga clubs so their league placing isn’t really very accurate, in my view. They’re still short on quality, though, and that makes this season likely to be a very long one for today’s hosts.
Still, if there was ever a time to shine then this is it. The old Split vs Zagreb rivalry is reunited here and although it’s not the main one, it does tend to mean that these two play out an interesting game of football. NK Zagreb do bring some confidence into this game following their recent run and it’d be stupid to overlook that, especially now that their best attacker Abdurahimi returns from suspension, as does regular defender Pelaic.
However, I can’t say that I really buy into this fairytale. I know NK Zagreb would love to beat Hajduk but for me, Hajduk should have way too much for their hosts. What is it that they say again? “You can’t polish a turd” and I think that’s the case with Zagreb today. They’re not the side that they once were and although Hajduk themselves do have some issues with absentees and keeping clean sheets, they should still have ample firepower in their squad to win this game. Hajduk have beaten bitter rivals Split twice in their past three games and humped Zadar in their last match so confidence is high and I think that they’ll do enough to win this game.
I wouldn’t be surprised if both sides scored in this one but I do see value on Hajduk winning at 11/10.
Verdict: Hajduk Split to win at 11/10.
Mainz 05 vs Nurnberg – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Much like in the A-League, taking unders in a Bundesliga game requires a certain level of luck but I do like this one today.
Mainz 05 have disappointed me this season, to be honest. I rate Tuchel’s side very highly but despite their work-rate remaining as consistent as ever, they really lack a varied attacking threat in the final third. Thank God that Szalai is having a terrific season for them because without their Magyar hitman they’d be heading for a relegation battle, in my view. Klasnic returns today and we may see him try to return to fitness and let’s face it; he’s a very natural goalscorer, something that Mainz really do need. Polanski is back to boss their midfield too so Mainz are pretty much at full-strength here. I’d never write them off at home as they’re always strong on their own turf but 4/5 on them winning this game when they’re so unconvincing in the final third is a bit of a joke, to be honest. Nurnberg aren’t great but they frustrated the hell out of Schalke 04 lately and shouldn’t have lost that one so they’re definitely capable of doing the same here.
Nurnberg welcome back fesity full-back Pinola, which is a bonus from a defensive perspective. Hecking’s side has generally been very tight defensively this season when their opponent has allowed them to be. If they concede the first goal then Nurnberg will generally lose as their firepower has seldom been less convincing than it is now. You have to hand it to Nurnberg, though – they have no problem at all being patient, sitting in their own half and waiting for counter-attacks (which Pinola will undoubtedly blaze over at some stage when he surges forward). Nurnberg’s approach does tend to work, though – they love to piss off Bundesliga sides on the road because they’re good at it and I think they’ll have some joy against Mainz 05 today with their hosts not really impressing in the final third.
I have to confess that I toyed with the idea of laying Mainz 05 today but didn’t have the balls as they’re really a very good home side. However, taking under 2.5 goals looks very interesting to me at 5/6 either way so that’s my call today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Gaz Metan Medias vs CSMS Iasi – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
So – which Romanian sides like going to play in Medias? That’s right; nobody. On the side, this is regarded as one of the tougher games in the Romanian Liga and that’s not without reasoning. This side is very dogged on their own turf and they’re surprisingly adept when it comes to putting the ball in the net. I like Gaz Metan quite a lot, as it goes. I find it interesting that they brought back the sullen Eric de Oliveira lately but it’s also pleasing from a betting perspective because when he plays well, he’s the best player in the league. He’s lethal from set pieces and deadly from open play so yeah – he increases Gaz Metan’s attacking threat at all times. Add to the mix a very experienced and able Thaer and you have a Gaz Metan side that can score goals, especially with poacher Astafei having already nailed seven goals in twelve games. They may not be the most sound side defensively but underestimate the attacking power of Gaz Metan at your own peril.
Visitors CSMS Iasi recorded a morale-boosting 4-0 win against Universitatea Cluj in their last game but it’s the only ray of light that they’ve seen for some time as they’ve been getting beaten out of sight. Ciobotariu’s side have really struggled to score goals in the Liga, failing to score in three out of their last four games now. they’ve played in six away games this season, losing five of them by a 1-0 scoreline and drawing the other 2-2 with an under-strength CFR Cluj. This side has no clue what to do when they fall behind and although it’s commendable that they’ve only conceded one goal per away game (barring the trip to Cluj) it’s only a matter of time before someone does hurt them, even with former Romanian international centre-back Ciobotariu at the helm. They’re a plucky bunch but they’re horribly short on quality and that rarely ends well on the tough trip to Medias.
For me, the value has to be in Gaz Metan beating the -1 Asian Handicap at evens as at the very least I expect them to win the game, which naturally brings into play the insurance side of this tip.
Verdict: Gaz Metan Medias to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Rostov-na-Donu vs Amkar Perm’ – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Most bookies have longer odds than I’ve listed but NordicBet have helpfully left the above selection at 4/5, which suits me just fine.
Bozovic has assembled a good squad at Rostov with an impressive midfield providing plenty of support for target man Holenda. Holenda’s task has been made a lot easier since the arrival of set piece specialist Bentley (not to mention Kalachev, who was already there!) as Holenda is a big forward. Rostov’s midfield is very mobile and tenacious, though, which also helps the Czech hitman to no end. Rostov’s record in the Russian Premier League is a bit puzzling, though. They’re good when sides attack them but they’re not too great at breaking sides down. They’ve got more than enough in their midfield and attack to score goals but in games like these, I just don’t see them being able to score freely. They are good enough to find the net and hold it but God help them if they fall behind as I don’t see enough in their ranks to penetrate a very stubborn Amkar defence.
Helpfully, the chances of Amkar taking the lead here are slender at the best of times. They’re a very defensive side away from home and they’ve gota couple of notable absentees today with central midfielder Rebko and big Slovak striker Jakubko both on the sidelines for this game. Amkar must have a big target man as part of their 4-5-1 in order for the pressure to be relieved by their strikers holding the ball up but that’s not so easy today with no Jakubko in the side. There’s plenty of experience in this Amkar side so they really shouldn’t panic at any stage of this game. Much like their hosts, they depend a lot on set pieces and they’re good at them too. Still, so are Rostov so it’s hard to see either side winning that particular battle with any conviction. Only Dinamo Moscow have sucked Amkar Perm’ into an over 2.5 goals game with Amkar as the away side this season as everyone else finds it very hard to break down their defence and that’s precisely what I expect today.
If Rostov had any kind of form then I’d be tempted to take them to win as I do rate their attacking options. As it goes, they’re struggling a little and Amkar are like vultures against stuttering sides as they have a vast amount of experience when it comes to avoiding relegation. For me, this game must go under 2.5 goals at 4/5 between these two cautious sides.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Besiktas JK vs Bursaspor – home win at 6/5.
I watched Bursaspor’s game at home against Kasimpasa on Monday and they left me cold. Bursaspor used to be a solid Super Lig side in the sense that sides found it very hard to score against them so when Bursaspor used to take the lead, they just to hold it and win the game more often than not.
However, for whatever reason, Bursaspor have lost that defensive superiority. They look bereft of confidence and that showed for both goals conceded against Kasimpasa. For my money, Carson should be right behind the path of the ball for the second goal and the fact that he wasn’t just isn’t good enough. Defensively, Bursaspor couldn’t get near the pace of Uche in that game and they gave away cheap free-kicks too often. I thought Bursaspor attacked well in the first-half but they were non-existent in the second-half, passing sideways far too often and not producing anything as a result. It’s surprising, really, because N’Diaye’s expansive passing and the movement of Belluschi and Batalla gives Bursaspor a very strong midfield but you wouldn’t know it from some of their recent displays. Sa Pinto is a very good attacking player for Bursaspor and constantly causes problems but he needs support. Still, he won’t be causing Besiktas any problems tonight because he’s not playing, which further enhances my decision to go against Bursaspor today.
Besiktas have had a good season, which is largely due to Ozyakup’s displays. They still have some of their excellent players that haven’t spat their dummy out and/or left, such as Manuel Fernandes. Those two combined make Besiktas’ midfield work well and with two big target men in Holosko and Almeida up front, Besiktas are rarely short of attacking options. Confidence is high in the Besiktas camp following three consecutive wins in all competitions so they bring good momentum into this game. Ozyakup is sadly absent for Besiktas today so it’ll be interesting to see how they cope without him. Still, Bursaspor are not impressing me at all despite them having a very good squad at their disposal so I do fancy the Istanbul outfit to take three points today as long as they convert their chances and don’t have anyone rashly dismissed, which they’re sadly somewhat notorious for.
Besiktas have a good record against Bursaspor, winning all four of the last four meetings against them. Even without young Ozyakup in their midfield today, I still fancy Besiktas to have enough to win this game. The absence of Sa Pinto is a huge blow for Bursaspor as they have no natural replacement for him and thus I don’t rate their chances of scoring here, which is due to their defensive approach to away games and their lack of strike options. Even with a dubious Besiktas defence on show, I fancy the home side to emerge triumphantly from this game at 6/5 as they should be able to outscore Bursaspor.
Verdict: Besiktas JK to win at 6/5.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart – Garuccio and Vrankovic are absent. Fred, Mehbratu, Grella, and Germano are doubts.
Brisbane Roar – Berisha is absent.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Dukla Prague – Stetina is absent.
Banik Ostrava – Vomacka and Milosavljev are absent.
Ceske Budejovice – Riegel, Linhart, and Klesa are absent.
Slavia Prague – Nitriansky, Latka, Zakostelsky, and Vosahlik are absent.
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens – No absentees.
AGF Aarhus – Kirkeskov, Petersen, Skhirtladze, Kure, and Norregaard are absent. Johansson and Haland return.
French Ligue 1:
AS Nancy-Lorraine – Muratori, Jeanvier, Dampha, Rachid, Moukandjo, and Sane are absent. Louis returns.
Stade Rennais – A.Sane, Montano, and Pajot are absent. Catherine returns.
German Bundesliga:
Mainz 05 – Polanski and Klasnic return.
Nurnberg – Raphael, Cohen, Marcos Antonio, and Schaefer are absent. Pinola returns.
Dutch Eredivisie:
NAC Breda – Zonneveld, Edwards, and Looms are absent.
Groningen – Hiariej is absent. Van Dijk is a doubt.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Ruch Chorzow – Zienczuk, Janoszka, Niedzielan, and Straka are absent. Szyndrowski is a doubt.
Lechia Gdansk – Traore is absent. Wisniewski may return. Qualembo may debutise.
Widzew Lodz – Mielcarz is absent.
Lech Poznan – Tralka and Slusarksi are absent.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Gil Vicente – Tiero, Daniel, Brito, and Luan are absent.
Pacos de Ferreira – William, Abdullah, Loureiro, Figueiras, Poulsen are absent. Cohene returns.
Romanian Liga:
CSMS Iasi – Petrovici and Keita are absent.
Gaz Metan Medias – Vitinho is absent.
Gloria Bistrita – Cafasso, Nastase, Al.Tudose, Bratu, and Braganca are absent.
Turnu Severin – No absentees.
Russian Premier League:
Rostov-na-Donu – Rebko, Belorukov, Novakovic, Grishin, Jakubko, and Volkov are absent.
Amkar Perm’ – Okoronkwo is absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Betis Balompie – Mario and Fabricio are absent.
Granada – Yebda, Romero, and Rico are absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Besiktas JK – Ozyakup, Quaresma, Pektemek, Karadeniz, and Koybasi are absent.
Bursaspor – Pinto and Ipek are absent.
Sivasspor – Nas, Bekmezci, and Celikay are absent.
Eskisehirspor – Coskun is absent.