TFT Issue 62!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Czech Republic vs Liechtenstein – away win with a +3.5 goal head start at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA European Championship Qualifier between Czech Republic and Liechtenstein. These two sides met at the Rheinpark in Vaduz in the reversal of this fixture earlier in the group with the scoreline ending 0-2 in favour of the Czechs on that day in an arduous and frankly boring game, which I’m expecting again today.
On paper, the Czech’s 2-1 defeat at Spain last match looks reasonably credible but in reality, it wasn’t. Plasil scored a beauty of a goal from outside the box and for the remainder of the game, the Czechs were hemmed in, barring the odd counter-attack where Spain looked like terrified rabbits with no Puyol at the back to guide them. Aside from that, Spain dominated possession and should have won the game a lot more easily and probably would have done had Fernando Torres been able to find the net with two gilt-edged chances that he was given in the second-half. Spain were rather wasteful when you consider their dominance but as much as the Czechs tried to stand up for themselves, the more easily overrun they were. Tempers began to fray a little and the Czechs looked tired toward the end of the game due to chasing the ball around for ninety minutes and that may show today. However, I expect a very different game today, one that really doesn’t suit the Czechs at all – breaking sides down. They used to be good at it because they had giant Jan Koller in attack who won most balls in the air but they lack that aerial prowess nowadays. As a result, the Czechs simply don’t score many goals, as was exemplified in their 0-1 defeat at home to Lithuania. That’s not the only game it’s happened in though, of course – they bumbled their way to a 1-0 win against the Scots and drew 0-0 with Northern Ireland all within their last four home games so you can see the similarities. In fact, if you give the away side a +3.5 goal head start against the Czechs with the Czechs playing at home then the Czechs have won just twice in their last twenty-seven home games, both of which were against San Marino. Coach Bilek knows that; that’s why he’s drafted six strikers into his squad to face Spain away and Liechtenstein at home so I respect him for his awareness. However, he’s got three kids, an unfit Baros, and two strikers that haven’t played enough at this level – it’s not terrifying, is it? Here’s some footage from their last game to exemplify why the Czechs are shit in attack, which was taken from their recent game at Spain – Baros.
The Czechs haven’t got Sionko, Stajner, or Fenin in their squad but aside from Sionko, neither of the afore-mentioned are what I would call “game-changing” players so I don’t think you could say that they’re missing players. However, aside from Rosicky and Cech, there’s a huge absence of quality for one reason or another and for that reason, I simply cannot take the odds of 1/100 on the Czech Republic winning this game seriously whatsoever! Admittedly, the Czechs should win this game but a side not scoring goals and struggling to break sides down being 1/100 to win at home? Ridiculous odds; you’re a mug if you take them! Only Plasil and Rosicky can create in this team and with all their strikers lacking in either experience and/or height, I just don’t see them having an easy game today, which is undoubtedly what most people would expect.
For me, Liechtenstein are ready to case problems in this game. They’ve really improved over their past ten games or so, becoming very hard to break down and walk over nowadays. Hell, they even won last match, albeit at shitty San Marino, but a win is a win, nonetheless! The only two sides that would have beaten Liechtenstein if Liechtenstein had a +3.5 goal head start during that run are Croatia and Spain, which I think are opponents good enough to do it, to be fair. However, I simply don’t think that the Czechs possess that level of threat anymore and therefore I find it very hard to write off Liechtenstein here. One thing I would say is that the visitors do have their problems for this game with injuries. There’s no Oehrl or Ritzberger in defence, which are blows. There’s an absence of some regulars in midfield with Beck, Ronny Buchel, Gerster, and Rohrer all absent. And finally, there’s n D’Elia or Fischer in attack, although legend Mario Frick is in the squad and as he’s arguably the best Liechtenstein player ever, they won’t miss the latter two players particularly. Liechtenstein have still named an experienced enough side to do a job on the Czechs today though, with ex-Grasshopper Zurich goalkeeper Peter Jehle in goal, playmaker Burgmeier on the park, and as I mentioned earlier, the mighty Mario Frick prowling the box will be a constant threat. You may find it laughable but I wouldn’t write the visitors off from scoring here – they’re good from set pieces and the Czechs don’t have a dominant centre-back anymore, not since Repka retired from international football. Liechtenstein’s absentees mean that they probably will lose this game but I’d be really surprised to see a heavy scoreline, to be honest – I genuinely don’t think the Czechs have it in them to inflict mass damage anymore.
I could be horribly proven wrong in an emphatic Czech Republic victory today but again, I’d be very, very surprised to see it. I don’t see how they’ll break through stubborn Liechtenstein resistance easily today and to be honest, I don’t think that they care enough to do it anymore – I think they’d take a 2-0 or a 3-1 given choice. They’re going to be a bit tired from their exhausting game in Spain lately so don’t expect a 100% showing from the hosts. Liechtenstein are no mugs on the road – they won 0-1 at San Marino lately, they drew 1-1 at a good Estonia side before that, undeservedly lost 2-1 at Scotland thanks to a 96th minute winner for the hosts, and drew 1-1 at Iceland before that so it’s a fool who writes off little Liechtenstein in this game. A draw wouldn’t surprise me as much as it probably should here but I’m not touching the 1×2 market anyway – my call is for the visitors to win the game with a +3.5 goal head start.
Czech Republic squad:
Goalkeepers – Cech, Lastuvka, Vaclik
Defenders – Hubnik, Rajnoch, Kadlec, Kusnir, Sivok, Pospech, Hubschman
Midfielders – Polak, Rosicky, Pudil, Plasil, Hlousek, Moravek
Attackers – Rezek, Necid, Lafata, Baros, Kadlec, Kozak
Liechtenstein squad:
Goalkeepers – Jehle, Buchel, Bicer
Defenders – Rachtsteiner, Vogt, Eberle, Martin Stocklasa, Michael Stocklasa
Midfielders – Burgmeier, Buchel, Erne, Hasler
Attackers – Beck, Frick, Hasler
Verdict: Liechtenstein to win with a +3.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
Additional games:
Israel vs Georgia – lay Israel at 23/20.
Israel are somehow 4/7 to beat Georgia; eh?!
Israel are constantly overrated by the bookies and I never quite understand why. They’ve got some very gifted individuals ala Arbeitman and Benayoun and are a good side technically too but they’re not worthy of such short odds to beat a decent Georgia side, in my view.
Israel’s problem is that they don’t score enough goals because they only go through Benayoun for their creativity. Without Benayoun, their midfield is pretty weak with only Zahavi offering another outlet as an attacking force. Striker Ben Sahar turns up when he feels like, although his pace can be a valuable asset. Barda is a good striker with the correct service but Georgia will have prepared for him on the basis that Israel can’t really spring any surprises here with no Arbeitman, Colautti, or Ben Shushan in attack, all of which were left out of the squad for varying reasons. To make matters worse for the fairly impotent hosts – they’re not stable defensively as counter-attacking Baltic nation Latvia discovered last match with Israel needing a late goal to win the game 2-1. Hell, the last time that Israel kept a clean sheet was during a 7-0 rout against Luxembourg back in 2009. Since then, they’ve failed to keep clean sheets at home to Malta, Moldova, and Iceland, just to name a few, so why are the hosts at such short odds today? It doesn’t make sense to me.
I wouldn’t necessarily put money on Georgia winning this game but to be honest, I’d sooner put money on them winning the game rather than put money on them losing the game! Temur Ketsbaia is a fantastic manager, he really is. His sides may play defensively but they are highly-motivated for each game and under his tactical leadership, his sides rarely lose, as he demonstrated with Anorthosis Famagusta in Cyprus and as he now demonstrates with his beloved Georgia on an international scale. Georgia are now without defeat in ten games, winning their last game 1-0 against Croatia. The game saw Croatia edge play with Georgia sitting back but Croatia simply didn’t look comfortable with the counter-attacking of the Georgians and in the end, a deflected shot from Kobiashvili found its way into the net and a valiant Georgia display saw them reap the rewards. This Georgia side has played Cameroon, Greece, Slovenia, Armenia, Georgia, and even Israel at home, all without losing. Hell, Georgia have been even more impressive away from home than they have been at home so I think Israel have every reason to be afraid here. The pace of Martsvaladze is a useful counter-attacking option for Ketsbaia’s team and there’s plenty of experience in this side, especially with AC Milan defender and captain Kaladze organising things at the back. Therefore, I think it’s high time that Georgia were taken seriously again and that’s exactly what I am doing today, although be a little wary as playmaker Gogua was left behind for this trip following a row with Ketsbaia.
For me, it’s going to take a better side than Israel to penetrate this solid Georgian wall. I don’t tnink they’ve got enough creativity or firepower to win this game, especially if they concede, which there’s a good chance that they will. 4/7 is stupid odds on an Israel win here, in my humble opinion, and with the above in mind, I think laying the hosts represents value today.
Israel squad:
Goalkeepers – Aouate, Harush, Goresh
Defenders – Gershon, Bondar, Ben Haim, Ziv, I.Cohen, Keinan, Twatiha
Midfielders – Kiyal, Benayoun, Golasa, Zahavi, Almog Cohen, Rafaelov, Natkho, Aberman, Alroey Cohen, Buzaglo
Attackers – Barda, Sahar, Biton, Damari
Georgia squad:
Goalkeepers – Loria, Revishvili, Kvaskhvadze
Defenders – Aldashvili, Khidesheli, Kaladze, Khizanishvili, Kashia, Salukvadze, Khubutia, Amisulashvili, Kvirkvelia
Midfielders – Kobiashvili, Daushvili, Guruli, Kankava
Strikers – Siradze, Iashvili, Dvalishvili, Vatsadze, Martsvaladze
Verdict: Lay Israel at 23/20
Germany vs Australia – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
This one speaks for itself really, doesn’t it? I usually don’t bother handicapping Germany because their strikers are rather average but they breezed 4-0 past Kazakhstan in their last game and they should be able to do the same again. Australia atypically provide a front that is hard to penetrate and I expect them to play a 4-5-1 today. However, the massive problem that faces Australia is a lack of midfield. There’s no Culina or Grella to sit in front of the back four and there’s no Bresciano as an outlet or a grafter so they’re really going to struggle here, in my view. Midfield is where Germany win their games with Schweinsteiger and Khedira sat behind Muller and I don’t see enough in the Aussie team to counter that with the afore-mentioned absent. Hell, Germany could even slip Ozil into their midfield somewhere to give the Germans more options off-the-ball and that would cause further problems for Australia. In addition to the above, Australia have no Jade or Beauchamp in defence and have brought limited attacking options with no McDonald, Thompson, or Kennedy in attack; just Robbie Kruse, who has admittedly had a terrific season in the A-League. Cahill and Emerton are in the Aussie squad but are either 100% fit? I really don’t think so. Both may feature but are Everton and Blackburn Rovers really going to let them both play for ninety minutes? Again, I really don’t think so. This Australia side lacks the usual unity, in my view, and they could be set about by a talented Germany side tonight.
As I mentioned above, the Germans must name a strong midfield to win this game or else I’d leave it. Midfield is where they win their games because they need a lot of chances for their average strikers to score goals. However, on the basis that I see no reason for the Germans to not field a strong midfield, the -1.5 handicap on a Germany win appeals to me here.
Germany squad:
Goalkeepers – Neuer, Wiese
Defenders – Schmelzer, Friedrich, Aogo, Hummels, Badstuber, Lahm, Mertesacker Midfielders – Khedira, Schweinsteiger, Ozil, Trasch, Kroos, Gotze, Bender
Attackers – Schurrle, Podolski, Klose, Muller, Gomez
Australia squad:
Goalkeepers – Schwarzer, Langerak
Defenders – Neill, Wilkshire, Carney, McKain, Ognenovski
Midfielders – Emerton, Cahill, Holman, Valeri, Jedinak, McKay, Kilkenny, Kewell
Attackers – Kruse, Rukavytsya
Verdict: Germany to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Ukraine vs Italy – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Anyone that follows this blog knows that I generally won’t side with Italian clubs or the Italian national teams on the continent anymore because they struggle to keep pace and change the ways that have always been successful in Italy. Indeed, it’s those ways that made Italy successful in the first place so I can understand the issue.
However, that changes for this game today. Ukraine is not an easy away game at any cost but if Italy do have any intention of winning the game then they’ve got the opportunity to do so today. They enter the game on the back of a morale-boosting 0-1 win at Slovenia in a fairly even game with Brazilian-born Thiago Motta scoring the only goal of the game. Italy needed those three points and Prandelli’s men should bring that momentum into this game. What I really liked about Italy’s line-up in that game, however, was that Prandelli picked players based on their work-rate and not their name. Italian coaches in the past have put players in their teams with big reputations but who failed to deliver on the big stage but by fielding an attack that has proven to work (Cassano & Pazzini) and supporting them with the likes of Montolivo, Motta, and Maggio, Prandelli has given the Italians their spirit back and it showed. Bonucci and Chiellini play with their hearts at the back and ultimately, this Italian side is finally showing spirit again. There’s no Zambrotta, Pirlo, Palombo, Iaquinta etc. for this game but I genuinely think that it’s working to the advantage of Italy at the moment. They’ll miss pacey Pepe for this game and possibly the in-form Di Natale but the remainder of the squad is good, in my view, especially with Villrreal CF hitman Rossi in the squad too.
Of course, Italian strength and spirit isn’t the only reason for me backing them in this game. There is another side to the coin, naturally! The biggest event that occurred before this game to convince me of an Italy win was the recent withdrawal of Shakthar Donetsk defensive lynchpin Chygrynskiy, who holds the Ukrainian defence together with his dominance in the air and his composure. He’s one of the best defenders in Europe, in my eyes, and without him, Ukraine will struggle. Ukraine aren’t a one-man defence; they do have other defenders that can slot in. However, with no Chygrynskyi to hold the defence together, this Ukrainian side has large defensive issues that I simply don’t think they’re good enough to handle. In addition to the above, Ukraine sent out a message before the game to show that it’s not important by allowing Stepanenko, Rakitskiy, Yarmolenko, Kravets, and Konoplyanka to join the Ukraine U21 side for their friendlies against Iceland and Denmark respectively as they prepare for the UEFA European U21 Championships in Denmark in June so is it just me that thinks the Ukrainians might be a tad casual or uninterested here?
Lastly, the injury to Artem Milevskiy a week or two ago means that there’s a lack of mobility and skill in the Ukrainian attack with only old hand Shevchenko left to lead the line. Tenacious Voronin wasn’t called up and both other pacey options – Kravets and Yarmolenko – were demoted to the U21 team so Ukraine look predicatable in attack, in my view. Shevchenko may know Italian defences well but he’s going to have to work very hard here to see the ball because I don’t see where his support will be coming from. Indeed, even free-kick specialist Aliev is not match fit – he’s not played a competitive game of football in months!
For me, taking Italy with draw no bet cover here at 4/5 reeks of value if they show up!
Ukraine squad:
Goalkeepers – Shovkovskiy, Pyatov, Dikan
Defenders – Mandzyuk, Romanchuk, Fedetskiy, Oshchypko, Kucher, Mykhalyk
Midfielders – Tymoschuk, Husyev, Aliev, Oliynyk, Khydobyak
Attackers – Shevchenko, Devic, Seleznyov
Italy squad:
Goalkeepers – Buffon, Sirigu, Viviano
Defenders – Maggio, Chiellini, Criscito, Astori, Gastallo, Balzaretti, Bonucci, Santon, Ranocchia
Midfielders – Motta, Mauri, Marchisio, Aquilani, Montolivo, Nocerino, Parolo
Attackers – Pazzini, Matri, Cassano, Gilardino, Giovinco, Rossi
Verdict: Italy to win with draw no bet at 4/5.