TFT Issue 65!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Double chance
1X:
Austria Vienna
BATE Borisov
Mechelen
Levski Sofia
Minior Pernik
El Nacional Quito
LOSC Lille
Paris Saint-Germain
Stade Rennais
Bayern Munich
Mainz 05
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Ekranas Panevezys
Suduva Marijampole
Heerenveen
Widzew Lodz
Rangers
Partizan Belgrade
Real Madrid
Basel
Vaduz
Trabzonspor
Dynamo Kiev
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional de Montevideo
Featured game
Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg – home win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Bundesliga encounter between Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg in Germany. Both sides have had terrific campaigns and deserve plenty of respect so I normally wouldn’t touch this game.
However, I’m very much drawn into backing Mainz 05 here and I’ll tell you why. Both of these sides playm very well as a unit but both are build around their respective managers; they’re the ones who make their somewhat limited sides over-achieve so much. Mainz 05’s home record isn’t as good as their away record this season but Tuchel still has them playing well in the vast majority of their games. Mainz’s only frequent problem is finding the net and with Szalai still absent today, that may still present a problem for the hosts. However, Allagui and Schurrle really should have enough in their arsenal to do the necessary damage today so I fancy the hosts to cause problems in this game. Defensively, Mainz are a very solid unit indeed and although they miss holding midfielder Karhan today, they sould still present a strong defensive wall that will be hard to penetrate, especially with Polanski and Germany U21 captain Holtby in the middle of the park, the latter of which scored two goals mid-week against Italy U21. Soto also misses out for the hosts but after a morale-boosting draw at BV09 Borussia Dortmund last match and with a European place very much in their sights, I fancy Mainz 05 to end their barren run of form at home today.
Much like Mainz 05, SC Freiburg are very much built around Robin Dutt. He’s a good manager and with Cisse leading his attack, Freiburg have been a real force this season, especially at home. However, Dutt has recently announced that he’ll be leaving Freiburg at the end of the season to take over Jupp Heynckes’ role in charge of Bayer 04 Leverkusen. This news is not going to go down well with Freiburg because as I said before, they build their team around him. I wonder what odds you’d get on Leverkusen signing Cisse in summer?! Either way, I am not expecting a galvanised display from Freiburg and given the limited number of goals that they score in general, I think that they’re going to struggle here. They’ve lost three consecutive away games ahead of this one and they’ve now lost seven out of thirteen away games this season as a result. Four consecutive defeats overall lead Freiburg into this game so morale was already low when Dutt broke the news and I can’t see Freiburg being motivated to do anything here, to be honest, especially with Cisse’s regular striker partner Reisinger absent today.
I’m playing a lot with Freiburg’s lack of morale ahead of this game as normally they’d give Mainz 05 a good game. However, Mainz 05 are very much due a home win and they’ll smell blood here. Schurrle looks better each time I see him and with Mainz 05 set to produce their usual strong display of unity in this game, I think there’s value in the home win at 4/5.
Team news – Mainz 05 miss Muller, Low, Grimm, Jeffrey, Karhan, Simak, Soto, and Szalai whereas SC Freiburg miss Pouplin, Jager, Hofler, Williams, Bechmann, and Reisinger.
Verdict: Mainz 05 to win at 4/5.
Additional games
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Gomel – away win with draw no bet at evens.
I never used to go against Naftan Novopolotsk at the Atlant Stadion but I’m going to today for two reasons. One is due to Naftan’s player sales and the other is due to how well Gomel are playing.
Naftan were dismal in their back-to-back games against Neman Grodno in the Belarusian Cup lately and it’s not hard to see why. They parted with instrumental attacker Rudik (to BATE Borisov) over the winter break, not to mention striker Zuev to today’s opponents Gomel or Brazilian full-back Juvenal to Siauliai in Lithuania. They’ve tried to sign replacements in attack ala Khlebolosov from Spartak Moscow but it’s just not enough, in my view, and Naftan’s impotent attack looks set to continue as a result. They’ve bolstered their midfield adequately with holding midfielder Shkabara signed from Dinamo Minsk and Kobets signed from Vitebsk so the solidarity of Naftan shouldn’t be in question this season. However, I look at their team and I don’t see goals anywhere other than Vishnyakov with Stripeikis really rather old nowadays so I can’t rate Naftan anywhere near as much as I’d like to!
Visitors Gomel have been astronomically good too, let’s not forget! They’re a big name in Belarus anyway but they attained promotion last season by winning twenty-seven games out of thirty, which is pretty damn impressive. In case you thought that form was restricted to the division below the Vysshaya Liga – since promotion, they’ve faced Partizan Minsk twice in the Belarusian Cup, drawing away and winning at home. That wasn’t a particularly hard game but it gave them some much needed competitive match practice. After that, they had a real test against one of Belarus’ leading sides (when it suits them) Shakhtyor Soligorsk. Gomel won both at home and away against their frankly superior opponents and as such, they bring good momentum into this game and could be set to make a strong entrance to Vysshaya Liga football ala Belshina last season. They’ve not rested on their laurels in the transfer market either, signing experienced Estonian centre-back Stepanov from Khimki in Russia, striker Aleksievich from Torpedo Zhodino, defender Kashevski from Tavriya Simferopol in Ukraine, Dnepr Mogilev striker Lyasyuk, Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod midfielder Stasevich, and as I mentioned before, Naftan Novopolotsk striker Zuev. This new-look Gomel has some distance to go to prove themselves but they’re in pole position to get a good result here with Naftan looking impotent and Gomel looking very threatening and enthused.
Unless Naftan go on a bad run (very possible with a lack of potency) or unless they’re facing a good side, I will almost never go against Naftan at home. However, Gomel have got everything going for them and as they’re scoring goals for fun, I have to give them a chance here – I just don’t see Naftan scoring more than them, especially with Zuev lining up against his old team! Therefore, my call is for Gomel to win with draw no bet at evens.
Verdict: Gomel to win with draw no bet at evens.
Dinamo Brest vs Vitebsk – home win at 4/5.
Most clubs in Belarus parted with at least some players over the transfer window and Dinamo Brest were no exception. They lost striker Roman Vasilyuk and midfield hard-man Kozak, which isn’t anywhere near as crippling as the sales of some clubs in the Vysshaya Liga. Dinamo Brest were rather active themselves on the signature front with defender Mendy from Partizan Minsk, defender Tarasenko from Torpedo Zhodino, defender David from Sliven, and goalkeepers Bartkus and Klimovich from Partizan Minsk and Veras respectively being signed. Note that all those signings were defensive so Dinamo Brest are clearly quite happy to leave the goalscoring side of things to Yanush and Mozolevski with Khvashchinskiy supporting them. They still have Sokol and Chelidze to provide the ammunition in midfield and are generally a very good home side in the Vysshaya Liga, something that I don’t expect to change this year so the odds on the home win look rather generous to begin with.
In addition to the above, we have to consider that that Vitebsk are really going to struggle to survive in the Vysshaya Liga this season. They rode their luck at times last season but got away with the drop due to their belief and unity as a whole. However, the departures of defender Kolomyts to Shakhtyor Soligorsk and virtually all of their midfield as Kobets moved to Naftan Novopolotsk, Khaletskiy to Belshina, Sorokin to Vitebsk, and Trukhov to Torpedo Zhodino leaves their unity in tatters! Vitebsk are not a goalscoring side by nature and without their ability to frustrate sides, they’re nothing but sitting ducks, in my eyes.
As if that wasn’t enough, Vitebsk already have a terrible record against Dinamo Brest, losing six consecutive meetings against their superior opponents and having lost their last four visits here in a row, I just don’t see Vitebsk getting a result here. Although it’s only the start of the season, taking Dinamo Brest to win this one at 4/5 looks something of a steal today.
Verdict: Dinamo Brest to win at 4/5.
Dinamo Minsk vs Belshina – lay Dinamo Minsk at 8/5.
Dinamo Minsk winning this game at 2/5 is an absolute joke! They’re arguably the biggest side in Belarus – no doubt about it. I like them a lot personally, too – they consistently produce brilliant youngsters to survive as they don’t have the financial clout that bitter rivals BATE Borisov have. However, that does mean that they occasionally enter transitional periods and I think they’re in one now.
The sales of Chukhley to Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast, Kislyak to Rubin’ Kazan, Shkbara to Naftan Novopolotsk, and Strakhanovich to Neman Grodno robs them of their strongest asset – midfield. Gurenko’s 4-5-1 can’t work with such absentees. They had already lost Putsila to SC Freiburg in June last year so all that remains are Rekish and Dragun carrying the midfield now – it’s just not enough. They’re very talented youngsters, don’t get me wrong – they just lack a lot of depth and with box-to-box midfielder, captain, and set piece specialist Kislyak having left for Rubin’ Kazan, I don’t see them having the experience to win games like this anymore. Gurenko has signed young Brazilans ala Renan, Leonardo, Bruno Furlan, and Lucas Sotero to aid his youthful team but it’s a massive gamble to hope that they’ll blend in seamlessly and I envision a torrid time for Dinamo Minsk as they try to get this team to work as a unit. Dinamo Minsk are notorious slow starters to the Vysshaya Liga as it as and against defensive moguls like Belshina, I envision a long, hard, and ultimately disappointing game for the hosts today.
I don’t like Belshina, to be blunt! They’re such a bastard side to play against that it’ll physically pain me to see them get a result today! However, I’m pretty sure that they will as they’re a very tenacious and well-organised unit and the only reason that they failed to finish higher in the table last season was a lack of strength in depth and a loss of stamina as the season wound on as a result. They’ve been astute pre-season, however, by signing hard-man Kozak from Dinamo Brest, promising striker Zubovich from Partizan Minsk (scored eight goals last season despite playing for a crap team), Dnepr Mogilev striker Turlin, midfielder Degteryov from Naftan Novopolotsk, and midfielder Khaletskiy from Vitebsk. They’ve also added a few foreigners with Moldovan attacker Stinga joining from Milsami Orhei and Ukrainian midfielders Lisovyi and Melnik joining from Sevastopol and Volyn Lutsk respectively, not to mention Ukrainian striker Pleshakov joining from Sevastopol too. Therefore, Belshina actually now has a side that is capable of competing for a European place all season long and with hosts Dinamo Minsk likely to spend a season in the shadows this season due to their changes, I think Belshina are very well-placed indeed to take their place as well as get a result off them today as goalscoring is not Dinamo Minsk’s strength without their dominant midfield.
Belshina did make losses themselves with the sale of emerging defender Kuntsevich to BATE Borisov, midfielders Sashcheko and Shegrikovich to FC Minsk, and striker Lanko to Torpedo Zhodino but they’ve signed more than enough players to cover for them and provide depth. Although neither side scores many goals, Belshina look more than well-organised enough to stop Dinamo Minsk before they even get started today and therefore the price of 8/5 on laying Dinamo Minsk looks very generous here.
Verdict: Lay Dinamo Minsk at 8/5.
Akademik Sofia vs Litex Lovech – away win with -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Why do Akademik Sofia have such a poor home record this season? That might be a question you’re asking, irrespective of the fact that they’re still newbies to the A PFG. Well, aside from the lack of quality, it’s because they’re not playing their home games in their home stadium and as they’re not a well-supported side, they may as well be playing in front of a silent crowd. Visitors Litex Lovech, however, have a big following and as league leaders, expecting them to win here is very reasonable indeed. I’ve mentioned before that I have my concerns regarding how many goals Litex Lovech can score now that Niflore has departed but considering that they’ve bagged five goals in two A PFG away games since returning from the winter break, I think they’re going to make me eat my words. They’ve already won six out of nine on the road with three draws along the way so Litex know how to win away from home. Litex enter this game on the back of four consecutive wins whereas Akademik Sofia lost their last match at relegation-threatened Sliven, losing 3-0. That’s going to damage their morale and given that Litex are superior to Akademik Sofia in every way, I think taking the away win with a -1.5 goal handicap at 5/6 is a good value bet today.
Verdict: Litex Lovech to beat the -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Levadia Tallinn vs Nomme Kalju – lay Levadia Tallinn at 4/5.
I’ve mentioned before that Levadia Tallinn lost a lot of players pre-season due to their financial problems and they’re now finally locking horns with the side that I expect to replace them as the number two side behind Flora Tallinn. Nomme Kalju signed a couple of players from Levadia, including experienced striker Neemelo so Nomme Kalju do have a slight advantage here. Levadia pose little threat in front of goal nowadays as five goals scored in four games indicates all too well and I think it’ll hurt them against what I can only describe as a superior Nomme Kalju side today. All that holds Levadia Tallinn together nowadays is Morozov in defence and Nahk in midfield. Bearing in mind that Nomme Kalju have arguably the best attacking threesome in Estonia right now – Neemelo, Viikmae, and Jevdokimov – I think they stand a very good chance of taking at the very least a draw from Levadia Tallinn today. Nomme Kalju are unbeaten in three games and although they can be caught out at the back, I think they’ll get at least a draw here because I don’t see how Levadia will outscore them, simply put. For me, there’s value in laying the hosts at 4/5.
Verdict: Lay Levadia Tallinn at 4/5.
Korona Kielce vs Polonia Warsaw – both sides to score at evens.
The situation is becoming increasingly desperate for both sides now with relegation not far away from either side. Korona’s star attack with Janczyk and Niezielan is still as dangerous as ever but it’s in defence that they’re now struggling, conceding a stupid amount of goals and thus not winning games. The absence of Hernani at the back is doing them a lot of damage, especially with Kuzera out too now. Although I fancy Korona to score here, as they almost always do, I can’t put money on them winning the game when I have no faith in them keeping a clean sheet
Polonia Warsaw’s crazy managerial merry-go-round continues as now ex-Lech Poznan boss Zielinski is in charge following yet another sacking. The players don’t know if they’re coming or going and understandably so, too! Zielinski’s first move in charge was to recall Smolarek and with Sobiech almost back to full fitness, Polonia Warsaw may have a dangerous attack again in the near future. Let’s face it – on paper, this side is one of the best in Poland currently and they should be playing as well as they did under Bakero. However, the ineptitude and impatience of their clown chairman has almost cost them their place in the Ekstraklasa so it remains to be seen as to whether Zielinski can galvanise them or not. Polonia’s defence is also suspect but at least Zielinski should give them some potency in front of goal, even without their injured playmaker Bruno.
For me, backing both sides to score in this game at evens looks a real bargain today as neither side looks capable of keeping a clean sheet and both sides specialist in scoring goals. Therefore, my call is for both sides to score.
Team news – Korona Kielce miss Hernani, Kuzera, Nowak, and Maliszewski whereas Polonia Warsaw miss Bruno, Mayoral, and Mynar whilst having doubts over Sobiech.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Bogdanka Leczna vs LKS Lodz – home win with draw no bet at evens.
Bogdanka Leczna regrettably miss Ricardinho for this game and they will miss him as he’s looked good lately. That would normally put me off backing the now-wealthy Bogdanka Leczna but LKS Lodz’s absentee list is huge so I have to take a chance on the hosts here! Since they were bought out mid-season, Bogdanka have been able to buy some very good players due to the financial backing of a beautiful Polish model (it’s like all our dreams come true at once, guys!) and thus they have a better side than their Liga 1 placing indicates. LKS Lodz are arguably still better than Bogdanka Leczna but they have their stars, just as their hosts do, on whom they rely a little too much, truth be told. Smolinski prepares the ammuntion and Mieciel uses it; that’s how it usually works for LKS. However, given that both of the afore-mentioned are absent today, I find it very unlikely indeed that LKS will win this game. Then let’s consider that secondary playmaker Kosecki, essential midfielder Maczynski, and regular defender Klepczarek also miss the game whilst LKS also have doubts over two other regular defenders (Gieraga and Romanczuk) then you can see why I’m opposing LKS here. I cannot for the life of me see an away win here and although that’s undoubtedly some “famous last words” from me but LKS will have to produce a miracle display to win this game. For me, the home win with draw no bet cover is a pure bargain today.
Team news – Bogdanka Leczna miss Ricardinho whereas LKS Lodz miss Smolinksi, Kosecki, Klepczarek, Maczynski, and Mieciel whilst having doubts over Kubicki, Gieraga, and Romanczuk.
Verdict: Bogdanka Leczna to win with draw no bet at evens.