TFT Issue 72!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Double chance
1X:
Millonarios Bogota
Dinamo Zagreb
EB/Streymur
Trans Narva
Nomme Kalju
Flora Tallinn
Girondins de Bordeaux
Lorient
Hannover 96
Gyori ETO FC
Internazionale
Siena
Daugava Daugavpils
Libertad Asuncion
Olimpia Asuncion
Ruch Chorzow
Slask Wroclaw
Celtic
Dundee United
Vojvodina Novi Sad
Slovan Bratislava
Senica
Rudar Velenje
Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
Brommapojkarna
Lugano
Shakhtar Donetsk
The bin
Siofok vs Ferencvaros – away win at 23/20.
The away win was always dubious here as Ferencvaros don’t travel well. However, they are the better team and Siofok are susceptible so the away interested me initially. I abandoned that interest upon seeing the absence of midfielders Maroti Bela and Rosa Denes because Ferencvaros don’t have enough firepower to win this game without midfield support and they don’t have enough of that without those two so it’s a big “no bet” for me.
Salzburg vs LASK Linz – away win with +1.5 handicap at evens.
This was one of my favourite tips of the day until I saw that Salzburg had appointed a new manager – Ricardo Moniz instead of Huub Stevens – and in a game with a rather “delicate” tip like this, it makes it a big “no bet” in my eyes.
Featured game
Hannover 96 vs Mainz 05 – home win at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the Bundesliga encounter in Germany between Hannover 96 and Mainz. Both sides have had strong campaigns but Mainz have really gone off the boil lately so I fancy them to struggle here today.
Only Bayern Munich can match the number of home wins that Hannover 96 have claimed in the Bundesliga this season with both sides having recorded ten wins in fourteen home games. Do you think Bayern Munich would be 6/5 to win this game? I doubt it, somehow!!
Hannover average scoring nearly two goals per home game whilst conceding just over a goal per home game and given that they’ve won ten out of fourteen at home already this season, they definitely have to be taken seriously here. Abdellaoue and Ya Konan have been electric together so far this season with the pacey duo causing problems for all defences in the Bundesliga.
Hannover don’t have any notable absences today so they have a good chance of doing well here, in my view. They have to bounce back from their 4-1 defeat at Bv09 Borussia Dortmund last match but to be honest, that scoreline did flatter the hosts as they bagged all four goals in the last third of the game. I give credit to Dortmund’s spirit but the scoreline was harsh on battling Hannover so I don’t expect today’s hosts to be too damaged mentally from that game as to affect their display today dramatically.
I backed Mainz to win at home to Freiburg last week and they made a mess of it due to lax defending and the absence of Szalai. The Hungarian striker is a great outlet for Mainz 05 from all perspectives but his continued absence is doing them a lot of damage, something I expect to see rather clearly today. The absence of Soto in midfield denies them energy and given that Mainz play a 4-5-1, it’s essential that their midfield is at its best in order for them to play well. Germany U21 captain Holtby is having a great season, as is fellow youngster Risse and holding midfielder Polanski. However, it’s just not enough for Mainz 05 who desperately lack creativity and a constant goal-threat so it’s hard to take them seriously at the moment.
The leading light of a fairly young Mainz 05 side is widely-courted attacker Schurrle, who has already bagged twelve goals this season despite being just twenty years of age. Allagui has contributed in attack and Mainz 05 can absolutely be a dangerous side on their day but they’ve not won for three consecutive games now and their unconvincing display against Freiburg leaves me with no choice but to oppose them today
Hannover 96 still have their sights firmly fixed upon a surprise UEFA Champions League place and they need three points today to continue terrifying the life out of giants Bayern Munich. The hosts have won seven out of their last eight home games, recording wins against Bayern Munich, VfL Wolfsburg, and Hamburger SV along the way so they have certainly earned the respect that they’re being given at the moment. Hannover 96 have won three out of their last five meetings with Mainz 05 and although the visitors are a tough nut to crack, I feel that Hannover 96 have far too much firepower to do anything but win here and let’s face it – the odds of 6/5 are unbelievably generous with the above in mind either way!
Team news – Hannover 96 miss Avevor, Burmeister, Hofmann, Andreasen, Ernst, and Evseev whereas Mainz 05 miss Fuchs, Low, Grimm, Jeffrey, Karhan, Simak, Soto, and Szalai.
Verdict: Hannover 96 to win at 6/5.
Additional games
Slovacko vs Marila Pribram – home win at evens.
Since their unbelievable 1-3 defeat against Bohemians 1905, Slovacko moved surprisingly quickly to steady the ship, avoiding defeat in three out of their last four games despite hosting Viktoria Plzen and Jablonec along the way. Slovacko do have offensive power at home – it’s just their defence that causes them issues. However, the vociferous support of their fans when playing at home coupled with the energetic style of Slovacko tends to mean that few sides have an easy game here and I expect Marila Pribram to encounter the same problem today. Slovacko recognise the importance of this game, hence them lowering ticket prices to something along the lines of two Euros per ticket for this match so we can expect a sellout crowd for the hosts. Number one goalkeeper Filipko and attacking midfielder Volesak are absent here but importantly, star striker Svancara and the two Valentas are in the squad so Slovacko still bring an attacking threat into this game. Slovacko have done well to prevent sides from beating them lately but it’s time to start winning or they face relegation so the hosts have to push on here.
Helpfully, Marila Pribram are notoriously poor travellers in the Gambrinus Liga. They’ve already lost seven out of ten on the road this season whilst averaging conceding nearly two goals per away game and averaging scoring just over a goal per every two away games so they’re the perfect side to host, generally speaking. Even more usefully, from the perspective of this tip at least, is the absence of leading goalscorer Klesa and striker Stochl. Goalscoring is a big problem for Pribram – it has been for some time now – and that’s not changed this season. They’ve bagged just two goals in five games since returning from the winter break and their last game ended in 0-1 defeat against poor-travelling Bohemians 1905 so it’s easy to guess where their morale is currently at! This side can be composed defensively but in a game that they realistically need as many points as possible from, I just don’t see where their attacking threat will come from today, especially with no Klesa available.
Slovacko can be bad enough defensively to concede against anyone in the Gambrinus Liga but they have more firepower than Marila Pribram and that should be instrumental in the outcome of today’s game. With a strong following behind Slovacko today in a game that they must win, the odds of evens on a home win against poor-travelling Pribram appeal to me here.
Team news – Slovacko miss Filipko and Volesak whereas Marila Pribram miss Stochl and Klesa.
Verdict: Slovacko to win at evens.
Kecskemeti TE vs Lombard Papa – home win at 4/5.
This should be pretty straightforward, in all honesty. Neither side is particularly competent defensively but the hosts bag an awful lot of goals at home and that characteristic has won them seven out of ten Soproni Liga home games this season. Lombard Papa have already lost three out of their four away games since returning from the winter break as they’ve conceded too many goals. Their only exception to that run was a 2-2 draw at a poor Szolnoki MAV so they’re a quite poor away side as six defeats in ten away games in the Soproni Liga alone this season indicates rather well. There’s not a massive quality difference between these two sides, to be honest, but KTE are simply a much better attacking side with experienced Tokoli leading the line and that should be the difference today. KTE have played five home games since returning from the winter break, beating giants Debreceni VSC three times in a row, beating a good Zalaegerszegi TE side 1-0, and battering bottom club Siofok 5-1. This is not the side to play away from home without a great attack and Lombard Papa just don’t have that so the odds on the home win appeal to me here.
Verdict: Kecskemeti TE to win at 4/5.
Excelsior Rotterdam vs De Graafschap – home win at 11/10.
There’s not a great deal of difference between these two clubs in many aspects but there’s one feature that Excelsior uses rather well to their advantage and that’s their artificial pitch. The only reason that they don’t have a more dominant home record ala Heracles Almelo, who also use an artificial turf, is because they defend like idiots. Nonetheless, against the right team, Excelsior are a very dangerous side because they score a lot of goals and that’s the scenario that we find ourselves with today. Importantly, Excelsior ended their barren run of defeats with a rousing 2-3 victory at Heerenveen against the odds so they bring good momentum into this game and are in pole position to finally make their potency count.
Visitors De Graafschap are not only a poor away side but they’re also struggling a lot at the moment. They’ve already lost nine out of fourteen Eredivisie away games this season because they average scoring just over a goal per every two away games whilst averaging conceding nearly two goals per away game – two killer statistics. In addition to that, they’ve lost back-to-back games ahead of this one, being defeated by NEC Nijmegen away from home and NAC Breda at home. Morale is lessening for the relegation-threatened visitors and considering that they’ve lost three out of their four away games, drawing the other game, scoring just once along the way whilst conceding six times, it’s fair to say that they’ll struggle here. But still their misery goes on! Why? Well, they have hefty injury problems today with three defenders absent – Broekhof, Saejis, and Nalbantoglu – essential midfielders Meijer and Hersi – and target man Bargas. A club like De Graafschap in such difficult circumstances simply cannot afford those absences, in my view.
Therefore, my call here is a home win. Excelsior may have the innate ability to concede against any side in the Eredivisie but on their artificial turf, they can score against any side too. You can expect goals in this game but for me, the home win at 11/10 is very appealing here with De Graafschap missing approximately half of their starting eleven.
Team news – Excelsior Rotterdam miss Fleccia and de Graaf whereas De Graafschap miss El Hassnaoui, Nalbantoglu, Saejis, Hersi, Loran, Bargas, Broekhof, and Meijer.
Verdict: Excelsior Rotterdam to win at 11/10.
Ruch Chorzow vs Polonia Bytom – home win at 5/6.
I’ve not been particularly happy about backing Ruch Chorzow this season following the departure of key players ala Niedzielan, Sobiech, and Sadlok as they have some rather average players left behind without them. Nonetheless, Ruch have still done quite well, especially in defence. They’ve only shipped three goals in ten Ekstraklasa home games, which is by far the best defensive record in the division. Their problem at home this season has always been goalscoring and with Sobiech and Niedzielan amongst the departed players, it’s easy to see why that is as they were Ruch’s two leading strikers. However, Ruch have tried to make amends with experienced Olszar in attack alongside pacey Pawel Abbott with options Jankowski and Janoszka both capable of scoring goals too. Impressively, Ruch have bagged six goals in their last two games, including a heroic 2-3 victory at Legia Warsaw despite trailing 2-0 at one point. You can see how much Ruch believe in themselves from that display and they bring terrific momentum into thisg ame as a result. They’ve won their last two home games consecutively whilst scoring five times along the way and following their dramatic victory at a superior Legia Warsaw side, the hosts winning this game at 5/6 appeals to me today.
Visitors Polonia Bytom naturally add to this selection as they’re well and truly in the doldrums currently. Financial problems, the intense controversy surrounding the transfer of Trytko, and their consistently poor displays on the road leave fans with little faith in their team. They’ve shipped seven goals in their past three games alone and are without a win since October. They’ve lost three away games since returning from the winter break, failing to score in each game. In addition to the above, they miss regular striker Podstawek today too.
Considering all of the above and also having taken into account that Polonia have lost six out of their ten Ekstraklasa away games this season, I have to side with the hosts for this one. Ruch aren’t the side that they were but they play with tremendous spirit and that clearly counts for a lot. I’d avoid Ruch if they’re not in form because they’re not a goalscoring side but as they’re playing so well at the moment, I have to take them to win against a demoralised and defensively-vulnerable Polonia Bytom side at 5/6.
Team news – Ruch Chorzow have doubts over Szyndrowski whereas Polonia Bytom miss Matawu and Podstawek.
Verdict: Ruch Chorzow to win at 5/6.