TFT Issue 82!
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Featured game
Internacional vs Emelec Guayaquil – home win with -1.5 handicap at 5/4.
Today’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores match in Brazil between giants Internacional and Ecuadorian visitors Emelec Guayaquil. The hosts have impressed me a lot thus far and although the visitors are generally hard to break down, I think we’ll see a convincing home win tonight.
Why? Well, Internacional improved a hell of a lot pre-season. Last season, they were rather susceptible as they didn’t score enough goals. Now they’ve got both Cavenaghi and Leandro vying for starting places, they’re scoring goals a-plenty and making plenty of chances too. They signed Bolatti to sit in front of the back four and give their midfield more dominance and with the likes of Guinazu, Tinga, and the fit-again D’Alessandro in the creative part of their midfield, Internacional very much have a side that is capable of winning this tournament, in my view. Internacional welcome back Oscar and Tinga in midfield tonight and to be honest, the one aspect I’ve never really mentioned before is just how experienced their team is. A lot of their starting players have played football at an international level and it’s enabling Internacional to obtain some much-needed points via efficient displays, which is essentially what they lacked last year. Interncional haven’t been given a hard group to deal with this season – a couple of altitude trips are never easy but quality-wise, Internacional are a lot better than all the sides in their group and that should show today. They’ve won 3-0 and 4-0 in their two games prior to this one on home soil and having already claimed a 1-1 draw in Ecuador in the reversal of this fixture, you have to feel confident that they can win it at home. Internacional are pleasingly not guaranteed a place in the next round yet or I wouldn’t touch this game. They need to draw this game to guarantee qualification but what that means is that they won’t rest players here; I thoroughly expect them to go for the win and with the attacking talent that they have at their disposal very likely to be deployed tonight, I have to favour Internacional to stroll to victory tonight.
Again, I’d probably avoid this one if it wasn’t such an important game but the fact is that it is an important game, especially for visitors Emelec. Emelec face an early exit from the prestigious Copa Libertadores unless they do the unthinkable and win in Brazil against Internacional so they simply cannot afford to sit back and defend here, which is their general style on the continent. To be fair to Emelec, that style normally suits them very well and few sides have an easy ride against them. However, when they have to attack, they are exposed and generally ripped apart by sides with the capability to do so ala Internacional. Emelec will most likely play to keep it tight in the first-half and thus we may see a draw at half-time. However, they can’t afford to sit back and hope to hell that Bolivian minnows Jorge Wilstermann get a result against Jaguares in the other game in this group; they have to attack and score goals or they’re out. Scoring goals simply isn’t something they’re very good at, especially on the continent. This is partially due to playing defensively and partially due to them not having the quality of other South American sides. Nonetheless, I do expect them to cause Internacional some problems tonight in terms of being hard to beat but I think they’ll eventually succumb to the skilful ways of their able hosts.
So, yeah – Internacional should eventually break the handicap here. It’s decently-priced at 5/4, presumably as long as it is as it’s been some time since Emelec were handicapped in the Copa Libertadores. The window of opportunity is there for it to happen tonight, however, as Emelec must attack and Internacional cannot afford to lose. Internacional are very dangerous on the counter-attack with their pace and skill and they undoubtedly have the finesse to score at least twice here. Therefore, my call is an Internacional win with a -1.5 goal handicap at 5/4.
Verdict: Internacional to win with a -1.5 handicap at 5/4.
Additional games
FK Ventspils vs Flora Tallinn – home win at 4/6.
I’d make a case for FK Ventspils being the strongest side out of the three Baltic nations at the moment and their record thus far this season backs up that theory well. They’ve played six games in all competitions, winning all of them and conceding just a single goal along the way whilst scoring a hefty seventeen goals along the way. They’re the epitome of composure and experience and that especially showed during their trip to face today’s opponents Flora in Tallinn earlier this month where Ventspils won 0-1. FK Ventspils have a good record in this tournament too, especially against Estonian sides. FK Ventspils have played against Estonian opposition four times since the Baltic League was created and they’ve won every instance, beating today’s opponents Flora Tallinn twice, Nomme Kalju once, and the now extinct TVMK Tallinn once. They’ve beaten the -1.5 handicap in the last three of those meetings and with Ventspils having won seven out of their last eight home games in this competition, I cannot help but feel that 4/6 is too long for them to win a home game, especially against inferior opposition. In addition to the above, Flora Tallinn announced that they recently sold their best target man Sander Post to Aalesund in Norway, which has impacted them and will continue to impact them, as a rather unimpressive 1-2 victory at Flora Paide in their last game in the Meistriliiga indicated all too well. Therefore, I expect Flora Tallinn to struggle here today.
If I were a braver man, I’d take the -1.5 handicap here. However, luck has gone against me an awful lot lately so I’m going to bottle it and stay with the straight win, which Ventspils really should achieve here. I don’t see Flora scoring and I see Ventspils commanding the game so my call is the home win at 4/6.
Verdict: FK Ventspils to win at 4/6.
Dinamo Minsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Dinamo Minsk have now played four Vysshaya Liga games this season and they’ve failed to score in three of them. Coincidence? Nope! Unsurprisingly, just as I expected, selling almost all of their midfield has done substantial damage to their attack and subsequently, Dinamo Minsk are not scoring goals. I mistakenly thought that they’d overcome that barrier rather early following a 3-1 win against Belshina earlier in the campaign but it only came about because of Belshina having sold and bought a lot of players pre-season. Dinamo Minsk do have the firepower to win games but it takes time to integrate new signings and Gurenko’s team is realising that now. Just look at who they sold pre-season – captain Kislyak, holding midfielder Shkabara, and attacking midfielders Chukhley and Strakhanovich. They also parted ways with Russian defender Marakhovskiy so there was a lot of work to do pre-season and to be fair to Gurenko, their defence at least looks as solid as it should be. They signed Afanasiev, Kibuk, Perepechko, Yasinski, and Bychenok to replace their departed midfielders and although it could work out for them in time, it isn’t working at the moment. Gurenko’s most impressive activity pre-season was to bolster Dinamo’s attack as they weren’t scoring enough goals last season. Thus he signed ex-academy product Leanid Kovel in attack. He’s a good striker with an awful lot of pace although his finishing can be questionable from time to time. Nonetheless, he’s a valuable asset in this league, in my view. Gurenko also signed Vyacheslav Hleb, who is the younger brother of Aliaksandar Hleb. Vyacheslav is another talented attacker with good skill and he’ll be another valuable asset to Dinamo Minsk, I’m sure. However, without their midfield in pristine condition, I don’t see a great Dinamo display today.
I still love Naftan Novopolotsk but I have to keep going against them because they’re going to struggle this season. The sale of attacking midfielder Rudik to BATE Borisov, the sale of striker Zuev to Gomel, the sale of hot prospect defender Politevich to today’s hosts Dinamo Minsk, and the sale of Degteryov to Belshina all hurt Naftan. The majority of them didn’t feature as prominently as usual last season but barring Politevich, those are some hefty blows in attack and given that goalscoring is not something that Naftan do well, it’s easy to see why they’re struggling so much this season. Defensively, Naftan are still solid with just four goals shipped in four games but barring the 6-0 shock win against a very poor Dnepr Mogilev side last match, Naftan have really struggled to score goals, needing bad defending from a corner against Neman Grodno to score and needing a free-kick outside the box to score against Gomel. This side is not a threat in attack currently, hence me not rating them right now. New signing Khlebosolov from Spartak Moscow should prove to be a good acquisition in due course but I still think it’s too soon for him to shine.
The above suggests a low-scoring encounter, however, and I agree whole-heartedly with that idea. The last five meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals and with holding midfielder Shkabara having moved from Dinamo Minsk to Naftan Novopolotsk pre-season, Naftan have a helping hand in preventing their opponents from breaking through, just as Dinamo do with Politevich at the back. For me, under 2.5 goals is priced too generously at 4/5 so that’s my call here.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.