TFT Issue 83!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Colo Colo vs Cerro Porteno – lay Colo Colo at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores encounter between Colo Colo and Cerro Porteno in Chile. It’s the last game of the group for both sides and although both sides are currently set to progress to the next round, it’s unlikely to stay that way as Santos are heavy favourites to overcome the already-departed Deportivo Tachira at home tonight, which means that one of these sides will go out, if that occurs. Therefore, we should have quite an entertaining game here.
The side that is more at risk out of these two is Paraguayan giants Cerro Porteno as Colo Colo are a point above them. It’s not like we’d have seen a defensive game from the visitors here either way, to be honest – they only know how to attack. The reversal of this fixture ended 5-2 and although I’d be surprised to see the same scoreline here, I do think that we’ll see a few goals. I’d hate to say which way this one would go – home win, draw, and away win are all acceptable outcomes for this game. However, I do think that Colo Colo are too short at 4/5 when they don’t need to win the game. Gallego is making them play their traditional attacking football so I can understand the odds at least a little. However, star playmaker Jorquera and important experienced defender Scotti is suspended following their entertaining 3-2 defeat in Brazil against Santos so Colo Colo are quite under-strength here with both players being rather vital. Cerro Porteno miss defender Formica, which is a blow, but bring a strong squad aside from that. Cerro Porteno have been a pain to beat in this group thus far too, only losing at home to Santos in their previous five Copa Libertadores games. We have to take Cerro Porteno seriously here, in my view. They’re unbeaten away from home in the group following a 1-1 draw at Santos in Brazil and a 0-2 victory in Venezuela against Deportivo Tachira and given the firepower that they bring into all of their games, I think there’s a good chance that they can score at least a draw off Colo Colo here. Colo Colo have some talented attacking players and can score goals against most sides but they’re very good at conceding goals too. However, with Jorquera and Scotti absent tonight, I think 4/5 on the home win is far too short here. For me, the value is in laying the hosts, especially as Cerro Porteno realistically need to win this game so my call is to lay Colo Colo at 10/11 tonight.
Team news – Colo Colo miss Scotti and Jorquera whereas Cerro Porteno miss Formica.
Verdict: Lay Colo Colo at 10/11.
Additional games
Santos vs Deportivo Tachira – away win with +1.5 handicap at 7/5.
As I mentioned in the above preview, I do think Santos will win this game. However, their undoubtedly strong firepower is matched by their ability to concede goals with only Deportivo Tachira having failed to score against them in their previous five Copa Libertadores games, which is worrying for the Brazilians. Their method of winning games is the old-fashioned “‘we’ll score more than you will” approach and with talent like Neymar in their ranks, I can understand why they might take that approach. However, they’re still missing Ze Eduardo and Elano through suspension following the crazy game with Colo Colo so they’re not at their strongest offensively. Let’s be realistic – they’ve won one out of their two home games in the Copa Libertadores and the +1.5 goal handicap for the away side in both games would have resulted in an away win, hence the foundation for this bet. Neymar is a sensational talent and he could win this game by himself but I’m banking on Santos’ absent important offensive players leaving the hosts with not as much firepower as normal tonight. Deportivo Tachira are already out of the tournament, admittedly, but they’re still playing for pride here and they’ve been a nightmare to face in this tournament outside of Venezuela due to their tenacious nature. I expect Santos to win this game but with Ze Eduardo and Elano out, how on earth are they 1/6?! Crazy odds. Therefore, I’m going to give the visitors a +1.5 goal head start at very generous odds of 7/5.
Team news – Santos miss Elano and Ze Eduardo.
Verdict: Deportivo Tachira to win with a +1.5 goal handicap at 7/5.
Smederevo vs Partizan Belgrade – HT/FT Draw/AW at 27/10.
Speculative fun bet here guys – take it or leave it!
Smederevo and Partizan are two sides on good terms. When this happens, the bigger club tends to win the game but in a way that either shows a good light on domestic football as a whole or advertises both sides as good teams. With that in mind, I think Partizan will take it easy here. They’ve not been particularly good since returning from the winter break anyway and with a derby with Red Star looming large, I don’t think they’ll be all guns blazing here. Their quality means that they should win the game but when? Smederevo are unbeaten at home in the Super Liga this season and although I do expect that to change today, I think they’ll give Partizan a tough game via foul means or fair. Incredibly, the hosts have been drawing in ten out of their eleven home games in the Super Liga this season at half-time so you can see the foundation for this bet. Smederevo shouldn’t have the firepower to trouble Partizan but the visitors certainly do. I think we may see a few players rested here for the visitors and I think they’ll take it easy but will eventually secure the victory. Therefore, I do think that odds of 27/10 on it being a draw at half-time and an away win at full-time are rather generous here.
Team news – I don’t have any currently but will later this morning so I’ll post it on the comments section if there’s anything to report.
Verdict: HT/FT Draw/AW at 27/10.