TFT Issue 86!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The bin
Elfsborg Boras vs Malmo FF – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Was all set for an over 2.5 goals game here in Boras with the tricky artificial turf and the potency of both sides. However, Elfsborg miss target man Elm and Malmo miss Molins so I just don’t have enough faith in the firepower of both sides here, especially Elfsborg. Atypically, I’d expect a 2-2 game here but for this one, 1-1 would be more apt. Either way – no bet.
Beroe vs Levski Sofia – away win at 4/5.
Beroe are a nightmare to break down at home, hence going unbeaten in the A PFG thus far this season on their own turf. However, Levski are one of two sides good enough to beat them, hence my interest. It looked good given than Beroe miss important defender Penev and experienced midfielder Genchev. However, the news that Levski haven’t brought star striker Dembele to the game is a huge blow for the visitors. They can’t play well in their 4-5-1 without him – he’s scored nearly half their goals this season and he’s made a lot of the others! Without Dembele, Levski revert to the side that they were a year ago – impotent. All reliability hinges on the killer playmaking skills of Tasevski and I don’t see that being enough to win Levski the game today – they need Dembele, in my view. Therefore, a big “no bet” here.
Atletico Huracan vs Boca Juniors – home win with draw no bet at 13/10.
As a unit, Huracan are better than Boca, hence my bet here. However, Boca are brilliant one week and horrendous the next and I simply can’t take the chance that they show up here. They’re generally impotent as hell and not even interested in the game but when they are, you know they’re going to win. Therefore, a big “no bet” for me.
Double chance
1X:
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Quito
Deportes Tolima
Real Cartagena
Litex Lovech
Gaz Metan Medias
Zenit St.Petersburg
Spartak Moscow
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional de Montevideo
Featured game
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice – home win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Gambrinus Liga encounter between Slovan Liberec and Teplice. Neither side has had a spectacular campaign but there should still be sufficient quality on show to ensure a Slovan Liberec win here.
Hosts Slovan Liberec simply haven’t won enough games this season. They’re a tough side to face in Liberec due to the amount of goals that they score but away from home, they’re basically sitting ducks with only four sides in the Gambrinus Liga having bagged less away goals than they have. Happily, that’s not a problem that we have here as Liberec average scoring over two goals per home game and they have won six times out of eleven already on their own turf this season. Pleasingly, they’re in a good vein of form, too – they’ve won three out of their last four games and drew the other. They’ve kept four consecutive clean sheets whilst bagging eight goals so Liberec are entering their form a little bit too late for it to be relevant, unfortunately. They’ve beaten two good sides at home lately – Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc respectively – so why not again today? Slovan Liberec have won their last four home games against Teplice in the Gambrinus Liga without conceding a goal so I think they stand a good chance of success here, although their fifth clean sheet in a row could be in question with star defender Kelic a doubt today.
However, a large portion of my confidence stems from the Teplice camp. Why? Well, for starters, this is their fourth game in ten days. They don’t have a squad capable of handling so many games in a row and that showed mid-week during a lacklustre and surprise defeat against Slavia Prague in the Pohar CMFS. The Teplice manager has since launched a scathing attack on his team, saying that “some individuals simply didn’t play well”, even going on to accuse some of them of not caring. They’ve not mentioned any names but morale in the camp is not good. They’ve just lost their sole remaining motivation for the season by exiting the Pohar CMFS as that was their only remaining passage into European football. I can’t help but feel that Plisek’s rant had more to it than was said, however. Rumour has it that Teplice are really struggling financially and are set to lose a lot of players in summer. It wouldn’t be a surprise, to be fair – many Czech clubs are struggling financially i.e. Brno, Slavia Prague – but it’s not been made public yet so I can’t really confirm it. However, the source is reliable and I think we may see Teplice lose some big players ala Vachousek in summer – maybe Plisek knows that and is annoyed? Who knows? Either way, all is not well in the camp – the players are demoralised, lacking motivation, and are very tired. Additionally, they’re missing giant striker Libor Dosek for this game so I just don’t fancy Teplice to get anything in this game.
Therefore, my call is the home win here. I’m a lot more confident about this game than I probably should be but I really like this selection today. The odds are very generous when you consider the above information and history sides with us so my call is the home win here.
Team news – Slovan Liberec have doubts over Kelic whereas Teplice miss Dosek and have doubts over Vachousek.
Verdict: Slovan Liberec to win at evens.
Additional games
Nurnberg vs Mainz 05 – home win at 11/10.
Just one win in four games for Nurnberg; their season must be falling apart, musn’t it? Not to me!
Nurnberg has been one of the hardest away games for Bundesliga sides this season as nine wins in fifteen home games indicates all too clearly. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and that makes them pretty damn dangerous in my view. What I really like about Nurnberg is the spirit and belief that Hecking has created. They’ve got a really promising midfield with Ekici, Gundogan, Hegeler, and Cohen all having played really well this season. Ex-PSV Eindhoven midfielder Timmy Simons is sat in behind so Nurnberg have a really strong midfield, in my view. They have to have a strong midfield, to be fair – their attackers are rather average in Schieber and Eigler but they’re still both scoring goals, which tells you a great deal about how good their midfield is.
I mentioned belief in the team earlier and here’s a good example. Nurnberg lost twice and drew the following game and you’d normally expect a side to lose morale after that kind of run if they’re not a side that’s used to playing well on such a consistent basis ala Nurnberg. However, let’s bear in mind that the games they failed to win were at home to in-form Werder Bremen, at home to giants Bayern Munich, and away from home against a strong Koln side. So what did Nurnberg do instead of burying their heads in the sand? They rejuvenated their surprise European push by winning 0-2 at relegation-threatened Kaiserslautern. It’s a very impressive result because Kaiserslautern really need points at the moment and the strength of the hosts in that game was goalscoring and yet Nurnberg left with three points and a clean sheet. There really is great belief in this team so they have to be given a shot here, in my view.
Visitors Mainz 05 are a hard side to break down – there’s not getting around that. What they lack in potency they tend to make up for in defence. If you score two goals against Mainz 05 then you’re generally guaranteed a win – that’s the Achilles heel of Mainz 05. With Szalai still absent, the goalscoring burden rests with impressive young Schurrle as Allagui is a bit tempremental, in my view. Mainz 05’s midfield is strong with emerging talent Holtby being surrounded by Soto, Polanski etc. They are basically a very efficient unit with a good manager. They’ve only lost twice in their last five games and they have obtained good results along the way. However, it takes a special display to get something at Nurnberg and with no Szalai available, I can’t see them holding off their determined hosts.
If you’d suggested at the start of the Bundesliga campaign that these two sides would be vying for a UEFA Europa League place near the end of the season then I’d have probably laughed at you. However, here we are with that exact scenario so I think it’s fair to say that both sides can already consider this season a roaring success. Nonetheless, they both need to win this one because I don’t see Hamburger SV or SC Freiburg catching either of them, based on the recent form of both clubs. This game could prove to be pivotal and both sides need to be at their best. Mainz 05 have failed to score during their last two visits to Nurnberg, however, losing 2-0 here last year. Without Szalai in attack, I don’t think Mainz 05’s goalscoring record in Nurnberg will improve and thus I deem the home win at 11/10 a decent value bet today.
Team news – Nurnberg miss Batz, Ochs, Bieler, Frantz, Mendler, Sauter, and Bunjaku whereas Mainz 05 miss Szalai, Simak, Jeffery, Grimm, Low, and Muller.
Verdict: Nurnberg to win at 11/10.
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Daugava Daugavpils – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
For the second successive year, the bookies simply fail to recognise Daugava as a force in the Virsliga and I still cannot fathom why.
The top dogs in Latvia are traditionally FK Ventspils, Skonto Riga, and Liepajas Metalurgs. Daugava Daugavpils rejoined them after their demotion following match-fixing allegations and still boast a strong squad too. They demonstrated last year that they’re not a side that will be walked over due to a stentorian defence and although they don’t score many goals, they’re not a side to simply walk past.
Liepajas Metalurgs haven’t shown it as much in their last few games but they’re really struggling to score goals this season. It’ll only be highlighted in games like this but the departure of Latvian hot prospect Rakels in attack to Ekstraklasa outfit Zaglebie Lubin and Grebis to Azeri outfit Ganja has damaged Liepajas Metalurgs greatly. They’re left to rely upon Kamess and Kalns, who can do a job, but they’re not a patch on their predecessors, in my view. The hosts definitely have a squad strong enough to finish in the top four of the Virsliga but do they have enough to win games like this? My answer is a resounding “no” – not on a consistent basis, at least.
I was tempted to lay the hosts but it’s early in the season and Daugava have conceded a couple of surprise goals so far this season. However, the odds on under 2.5 goals are a joke. I’ve no idea how it’s priced so generously at 3/4 with this exact fixture having gone under 2.5 goals for four out of the last five years. Liepajas failed to even beat Daugava in three consecutive meetings last season, which does show how much Daugava have bolstered their team since promotion. This is not as easy a game for Liepajas Metalurgs as the bookies are suggesting. I’ll keep away from the 1×2 market as 1-0 is possible here but under 2.5 goals at 3/4 looks a steal in this one.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Zorya Lugansk vs Metalurg Donetsk – home win with draw no bet at 9/10.
Call this one a hunch or whatever you like but I really like it!
Zorya Lugansk are a notorious feeder club of Shakhtar Donetsk’s, who are obviously the hated rivals of today’s opponents Metalurg Donetsk. Zorya currently have six players on loan from Shakhtar Donetsk – Fomin, Yemelyanov, Kosavlyov, Polyanskiy, Kasyan, and Shevchuk. They had more on loan but Vitsanets, Shust, Mikitsey, Kartushov, and Chaykovskiy all returned to Shakhtar Donetsk back in December. The players that remained are good players, especially attacker Fomin, and you can bet your life that they’ll be motivated to do well against Metalurg Donetsk here, if only to appeal to their parent club.
That aside, Zorya have won two out of their three home games in the Premier League since returning from the winter break and didn’t concede a goal in either. They lost 0-2 against Metalist Kharkiv in their last home game but you’d have to expect that – Metalist Kharkiv are a very good side nowadays. Zorya have failed to score for three consecutive games now but let’s look at who they’ve faced – Dynamo Kiev away, Metalist Kharkiv at home, and Tavriya Simferopol away – that’s more than acceptable, in my eyes. This is a game Zorya can win and I think they will with the above in mind.
Metalurg Donetsk are a side that struggles a lot, to be honest. They don’t score goals, they don’t play good football, and can be taken apart by sides with more determination than themselves just like in their shocking 0-1 defeat at home to Metalurg Zaporizhya last match. They lost at Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih before that without scoring and those are two of the poorest sides in the Ukraine defensively, which speaks volumes for their poor attack. Gordeev subtly mentioned that they’re missing Godin and Morozyuk a lot, especially Godin, which is true really – they’ve lacked grit in midfield. They’ve still got a good enough squad to get a good result against two crap sides though so I can’t blame the injured twosome, who are incidentally still absent for today’s game. I just don’t rate Metalurg Donetsk – they lack in morale, in determination to attack and score goals, and in efficiency.
Considering that Metalurg have won just three away games in the Premier League this season, it’s hard to take their chances seriously here. Zorya Lugansk have various reasons to beat the hosts and are good in front of goal. Metalurg haven’t won in their last six away games, losing four times along the way. Zorya are a decent home side and haven’t lost against Metalurg in their last three head-to-head meetings. For me, the value is on the home side with draw no bet cover today.
Team news – Metalurg Donetsk miss Godin and Morozyuk.
Verdict: Zorya Lugansk to win with draw no bet at 9/10.
Sevastopol vs Illichivets Mariupol – home win at 4/5.
Hosts Sevastopol responded really well following the club’s return from the winter break propping up the table. They were unlucky to lose at home to Shakhtar Donetsk – it took a last-minute goal to win it for the visitors. Sevastopol subsequently lost the following game 1-0 at Metalurg Donetsk. Since then, Sevastopol have won twice, drawn once, and lost once as they bid to beat the drop. They signed a lot of players during the transfer window that it took a lot of time to integrate into the team. However, they’ve got a lot more attacking talent now that they have Bulgarian attacking midfielder Mladenov behind ex-Schalke 04 attacker Ibraimi. They brought in BATE Borisov goalkeeper Veremko and ex-Dynamo Kiev defender Dopilka to steady their defence and Sevastopol look a much, much better team for it. Their pitch plays to their advantage as it’s a quagmire and considering that Sevastopol have not only won their last two home games in a row, beating relegation rivals Volyn Lutsk and an impressive Karpaty Lviv along the way, they must be taken seriously here. Please also take into your considerations that Sevastopol scored well over 50% of their goals at home this season in their last two home games for evidence of how much this side has improved!
Visitors Illichivets Mariupol are a funny side. They love to attack and score goals but they’re such a shoddy side in defence that it usually cripples them. That’s why only Shakhtar Donetsk, Dynamo Kiev, Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk, and Tavriya Simferopol have scored more away goals than they have this season and yet only Sevastopol have conceded more away goals than they have. Illichivets have subsequently lost seven out of their twelve away games and look destined for relegation following the injury to star striker Antonov. The good news is that he won’t require surgery so he should be back again in a couple of weeks but they struggle to find the net without him and you can see how dangerous that makes Illichivets’ position as they attack with little care for defence!
Illichivets have lost three out of their last four games and have alarmingly shipped eleven goals along the way – nearly three goals per game, on average. They have scored their token goal here and there but they’re in a very dangerous position right now and it’s not a good idea to take on in-form Sevastopol on a shit pitch without a notable goalscorer in their ranks for the match. The hosts really should record a much-needed win here against a struggling Illichivets side, in my view.
Team news – Illichivets Mariupol miss Antonov.
Verdict: Sevastopol to win at 4/5.