TFT Issue 91!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg – home win at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the Bundesliga relegation battle between giants Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg. If you’d said at the start of the season that these two sides would be locked in a relegation battle at the end of the season then I’d have probably laughed at you. However, injuries for the hosts and poor administrative decisions by the visitors have led to them both being in the battle, although realistically speaking, I think both will avoid the drop.
I tipped Bremen to win last week because they’ve got almost all their team back and it eventually paid dividends as they ran out 1-3 winners at St.Pauli. Bremen were unbeaten in seven games before that but now they’re eight games unbeaten and take a win into this game so both momentum and morale are strong for the hosts. They usually concede in their games, which is a shame, or they’d be a lot higher up the table as there’s very few games that they don’t score in. They miss Naldo, really – he’s been out for the vast majority of the current campaign through injury and their defence is particularly vulnerable without his leadership qualities. However, their attack impresses me considering that only Pizarro can put the ball in the net! They’ve got a very strong midfield and they believe in themselves, which I like. I don’t often back sides to win games with such atrocious defensive records but Bremen are playing well and have a lot going for them ahead of this game so why not?
Visitors Wolfsburg have responded reasonably well to Magath’s appointment but there’s such a lack of cohesion in this squad that I can’t help opposing them. Magath is what – their third manager of the season? Maybe even fourth – I’ve lost track! Why on earth they signed so many new players in the transfer window without a fixed manager there I don’t know. The players they’ve signed are good, don’t get me wrong, but what chance do they have of immediately adjusting? Only striker Helmes had previously played in the Bundesliga prior to Wolfsburg signing him. They signed the hottest prospect in Venezuela – Orozco – as well as Czech Republic holding midfidler Polak, African striker Mbokani, Turkish attacker Tuncay, and Korean midfielder Ja-Cheol Koo. Incredulously, Wolfsburg sold centre-back Barzagli during that window too, who was arguably their most consistent performer at the back this season. They sold striker Dzeko to Manchester City in a big money move too and although I’m not a particular fan of the lanky striker, he certainly ran the show for Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga and they do miss him, especially with Grafite having been out of form for a large portion of their campaign. As a result of all of the above, nobody really knows Wolfsburg’s starting eleven and subsequently they’re rather vulnerable, hence them being placed just outside the drop zone currently. They won impressively against Koln last match, admittedly, running out 4-1 winners against their fesity opponents. However, they’ve scored just twice in their last five away games and have subsequently lost four of them so you can see how much this side struggles on the road and is it any surprise? They barely know each other!
I’ve no doubt that a superb manager like Magath will unite Wolfsburg in due course if he’s allowed to do his job. However, I don’t see that time being now – they look like they’ve never met before, most of the time. Bremen, on the other hand, look very unified and dangerous in attack and given the strong run that carries them into this fixture, I can’t help but call a home win at generous odds of 11/10.
Team news – Werder Bremen miss Vander, Wiedwald, Andersen, Boenisch, Naldo, Prodl, Borowski, Husejinovic, Ikeng, Jensen, Kroos, Vranjes, Avdic, Ayik, Schindler, Testroet, and Thy whereas VfL Wolfsburg miss Lenz, Johnson, Karimow, Kiamt, Schulze, Kreuels, Orozco, Schindzielorz, Wolze, Klos, Mbokani, and Polter.
Verdict: Werder Bremen to win at 11/10.
Additional games:
Gyori ETO FC vs Paksi SE – under 2.5 goals at evens.
The odds on Gyori winning this game are a bit long but a cursive glance at their absentee list tells you exactly why that is. Don’t be fooled by their Soproni Liga placing – Gyori are the better of these two sides. They’ve not been at their best lately – or indeed for the majority of this campaign – but underestimating them is suicide. Only league leaders Fehervar and under-performing Szombathelyi Haladas have conceded less goals at home than Gyori have this season so you can see the foundation for their success. However, the fact that only Budapest Honved outside of the bottom three have scored less home goals than they have unveils their problem. Since the departure of Estonian winger Kink and Argentinian winger Marinelli, Gyori have lacked in creativity, unsurprisingly. Despite being a midfielder, Kink was their leading goalscorer last season and they do miss him a lot. This season has hinged upon Gyori relying rather heavily upon ex-Chelsea attacker Aleksidze from Georgia. It’s not enough for them, however, and that has been proven innumerate times this season. Unfortunately for Gyori, they do miss Aleksidze today through suspension. That news is made increasingly worse for the hosts given that his strike partner Bouguerra is absent through injury, as is back-up striker Nicorec, which basically leaves Brazilian attacker Nicolas up front on his own, which definitely isn’t enough. Bluntly, I don’t see the hosts’ attacking problems getting any better here today.
Gyori may miss defender Djordjevic for this game but Paksi SE have similar problems to Gyori when it comes to putting the ball in the net so I’m not too concerned here. Paksi SE are strong as a unit, not as a team of well-recognised individuals. Indeed, Paksi work terrifically well as a unit because all the players in their entire squad are from Hungary. They’re actually the only side in the Soproni Liga to boast that fact and that gives them a certain edge, in my view – it makes the players unite more. Look at Paksi’s team – Magasfodi, Montvai, Bode, Bartha, Kiss, Sifter – these aren’t household names, even by Hungarian standards. They’re simply very hard workers and they’re very good at what they do. They’re tight at the back and feisty as hell. The fact that they’re second in the Soproni Liga indicates how well they’ve played and also how badly everyone but Fehervar has played. Paksi are a nightmare side to face, however – they work hard, keep the ball well, and keep sides out more often than not so I see a tight game ahead of us today.
As Paksi have developed and Gyori have weakened, the games between the two sides have started to become a lot tighter. Two out of the last three meetings have gone under 2.5 goals and with almost all of Gyori’s attacking threat absent today, I think we’ll see under 2.5 goals here. A draw is a good result for the visitors and the hosts have little left to play for with relegation and European football both equally as improbable. Therefore odds of evens on under 2.5 goals looks surprisingly generous here.
Team news – Gyori ETO FC miss Aleksidze, Nicorec, Tokody, Bouguerra, and Djordjevic.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
MSK Zilina vs Senica – lay MSK Zilina at 4/5.
MSK Zilina are the bigger name of these two sides in Slovakian football’ no questions asked. However, the odds on them winning this game are outlandish at best. They’ve been mediocre since returning from the winter break because they don’t have a consistent attacking threat anymore. As if it wasn’t already enough that they sold star midfielders Jez and Kobylik in Janaury, both of which contributed heavily with goals and assists, but now they’ve let experienced striker Oravec leave last month too! Crazy stuff. Only Ceesay and Majtan can put the ball in the net anymore for them and Ceesay has been out-of-form for the majority of this Corgon Liga campaign. Riike is quick but without any kind of finesse and ultimately, Zilina look a shadow of their former selves at the moment, which is well-illustrated by the fact that they’ve failed to score in three out of their last four games. This is Zilina’s third game in ten days, which is tiring, and they miss their best defender Angelovic and number one goalkeeper for this quintessential game – how on earth can they be so short here? Amazing.
Senica are leading the Corgon Liga after a sensational campaign and they’re actually unbeaten since mid-November. They’ve already won seven out of thirteen on the road this season whilst losing just three times due to a cast-iron defence. This Senica team is a threat in front of goal and they’re good at preserving leads, which makes them dangerous. The influence of ex-Sparta Prague playmaker Kona and the finesse of Czech striker Smetana and his striking associates Divis and Piroska make this Senica side deadly on counter-attacks and that should trouble the hosts today. Senica have already been to Zilina’s bitter rivals Slovan Bratislava and drawn 2-2 this season – why not again today?
For me, the only value in this game is laying the hosts. Zilina are too short based on their name whereas Senica are underestimated because of theirs. The visitors have everything that the hosts lack currently so laying Zilina looks the best bet here.
Team news – MSK Zilina miss Stanislav Angelovic and Martin Dubravka.
Verdict: Lay MSK Zilina at 4/5.