TFT Issue 93!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Usual warning here, guys. Seems there are some fixed games in Italy again. I don’t know what they’re fixed as so just be smart and avoid them rather than being a dick and trying to pick them out! The games are Chievo Verona vs Lecce and Catania vs Cagliari.
The bin
Helsingborg vs BK Hacken Goteborg – home win at 4/5.
Helsingborg are one of the top two sides in the Allsvenskan and will be there at the end of the season. However, Hacken are getting better each year and have started this campaign really well, scoring a lot of goals. Helsingborg are winning but relying on their defence too much as they’re not creating or scoring many. The problem I have here is that I can see Hacken scoring but I don’t think Helsingborg will score twice in their current form. Additionally, Helsingborg miss Patronen and Edman in defence so I can’t get involved here – “no bet” for me.
Double chance
1X:
Levski Sofia
Atletico Nacional de Medellin
FC Copenhagen
AGF Aarhus
Deportivo Quito
Deportivo Cuenca
El Nacional Quito
Manchester City
Olympique de Marseille
AC Milan
Ekranas Panevezys
PSV Eindhoven
Twente Enschede
AZ Alkmaar
Celtic
Red Star Belgrade
Caracas
Deportivo Tachira
Featured game
Bellinzona vs FC Zurich – away win at 3/4.
Today’s featured game is the Swiss Super League game between Bellinzona and FC Zurich. Both sides need the points from this game for varying reasons so we should see a good game here.
Bellinzona have only won three out of fourteen at home this season, however, which doesn’t prepare them too well for the game against in-form FC Zurich. They’ve only lost six of those fourteen, which isn’t particularly condemning until you look that five of those defeats have come over their last nine home games, a run started by a home defeat against…yes, FC Zurich! You notice a pattern in Bellinzona’s home form as the season goes on in the sense that they’re losing against the better sides – 1-2 against FC Zurich, 1-5 against Young Boys Bern, 0-4 against Basel – and I expect more of the same today. Bellinzona aren’t a bad team; in fact, they tend to score quite a few goals. However, they simply concede far too many goals and therein lies their problem. They’ve not kept a clean sheet in their last nine games and with almost all of their defence absent today, I don’t see that record improving. Yes, that’s right – there’s no Pergl, Mangiarratti, Siqueira, or even La Rocca for this game. There’s no Mihoubl in midfield either, which doesn’t help. They may have the second leading goalscorer in the Swiss Super League in old hand Lustrinelli and he may well score today but how on earth will Bellinzona keep FC Zuric out? I just can’t see it. The hosts have virutally no defence today and are not in a good vein of form so I don’t rate their chances here.
FC Zurich welcome back Magnin for this game and despite him being their best and most experienced defender, I just don’t think they need him right now! That’s the measure of how well Zurich are playing currently. They’ve conceded just once in their past four Super League games and have only lost twice in their twelve Super League games since the break and in their defence, those defeats were at Basel and Young Boys Bern, which are acceptable defeats. They’ve won the other ten games so morale and momentum is immense right now. FC Zurich have won the derby with Grasshopper Zurich, won at Sion, won at home against Young Boys Bern, and annihlated Neuchatel Xamax last match. They’re riding the crest of a wave right now and as they’re just a single point behind a stuttering Basel, they’re certainly champing at the bit. They do have absences themselves for this game, FC Zurich, with striker Chermiti and midfielder Margairaz, both of which are fairly important. However, they’re playing against a side that is missing the vast majority of their defence and they have adequate cover so I’m not too concerned here. The fact is that FC Zurich have a lot of good players and with such strong momentum behind them, I can’t help but back them to win this one.
FC Zurich have won four out their five trips to Bellinzona since Bellinzona were promoted, winning four out of their last six meetings overall. FC Zurich are in the form of the season are a barren start whereas Bellinzona are playing about the same as usual. For me, the odds on Zurich winning this game are too generous so that’s my call here.
Team news – Bellinzona miss Pergl, La Rocca, Mangiarratti, Mihoubl, Siqueira Barras, and Taulo whereas FC Zurich miss Margairaz and Chermiti.
Verdict: FC Zurich to win at 3/4.
Additional games
Ferencvaros vs Debreceni VSC – home win at 6/5.
Despite losing at European rivals Kaposvari Rakoczi last match, hosts Ferencvaros are still very much in the hunt for a UEFA Europa League place – that would really make last season’s and this season’s struggle worthwhile. However, what they’d really love to do is get one over on old foes Debreceni VSC, who have attempted to take charge as the biggest side in Hungary, which isn’t something that Ferencvaros have enjoyed seeing. Ferencvaros are back with a vengeance and they’ll be more motivated for this game than any other this season, in my view. They’ve already proven their worth at home with eight wins in twelve Soproni Liga home games and they’re good enough to do it again today.
Debreceni VSC have been little more than a name this season with so many internal problems at the club that it’s been unreal. UEFA investigations over match fixing, the sales of key players, and overall unconvincing displays have left Debreceni VSC in fifth place with the distinct possibility that they won’t be playing European football next year, which would be a major disaster for what has rapidly become a very big club. Their problem this season on the pitch has been their atrocious displays away from home, winning just once in eleven games. They’ve lost six of those games whilst averaging conceding two goals per away game so their problems are more than apparent. Despite stringing together back-to-back wins lately, they do have problems today. Their star player Cvitkovics, who creates and scores most of their goals, is absent. Additionally, regular defender Bernath and midfield engine Mbengono also miss this game through injury, which subtracts a great deal of quality from this Debreceni team. Coulibaly is still a threat in attack but where are the chances coming from with no Cvitkovics? Bernath is the experienced man in the Debreceni defence – who can replace him? Debreceni have conceded in all but one of their away games this season and have shipped eight goals in their last three games so frankly, I don’t fancy them in such a tough game today.
The general vibe from the Debreceni camp this season is that they don’t really care, that they want the season to be over. Ferencvaros, on the other hand, are loving back in the spotlight and will work themselves into the ground to beat arch rivals Debreceni VSC. With so many important players absent for the visitors and the hosts determined and strong at home, I can’t help but feel that the odds on the home win look particularly generous here.
Team news – Debreceni VSC miss Csaba Bernath, Peter Cvitkovics, and Yannick Mbengono.
Verdict: Ferencvaros to win at 6/5.
Delemont vs Lausanne Sports – away win at 7/5.
Delemont have done well since promotion into the Challenge League this season. I didn’t expect much from them but an excellent start to the campaign means that their barren spell of late will go by unnoticed as they’ve successfully avoided relegation, which was naturally their aim for the current season. They’ve been hard to beat at home due to a solid defence but that’s gone AWOL in the last few weeks as their thin squad becomes stretched and jaded. They’ve conceded well over 50% of their goals at home in the Challenge League this season during their last five home games, which emphasises my point. I don’t see that record improving today either, not with key defender Hamidou absent. They’ve conceded four goals at home to lowly Yverdon Sport along the way so it’s hard to see them taking points of Lausanne Sports today, especially with skilled striker Marcio absent.
Visitors Lausanne Sports aren’t the best of the bigger sides in the Challenge League when it comes to playing away from home but I still fancy them a lot here. They beat Chiasso 1-2 away from home in their last away match because they were inspired by the demise of Vaduz and the lengthy injury to one of Servette’s most instrumental players – de Azevedo. If Lausanne Sports win this game then they’re five points behind Vaduz and they have a home game against Vaduz yet to come this season so promotion is still very much on the cards for Lausanne – if they keep wnining. Lausanne’s problem on the road is not scoring enough goals but they have the opportune moment to correct that with no Hamidou for the hosts so I think they’ve got a better chance than the bookies do here.
All in all, Lausanne Sports look a bit long here. The hosts have no reason to play well here and they’re not a particularly good side whilst missing two of their best players. The visitors are a better side with more experience and a load of motivation. Lausanne Sports must win this game, simply put. With the above in mind, 7/5 on the away win appeals to me here.
Team news – Delemont miss Hamidou and Macio Barbosa.
Verdict: Lausanne Sports to win at 7/5.