TFT Issue 99!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Two thiings:
1. Bet with caution today. There aren’t many games to sink your teeth heavily into – most of the good games today are more speculative than anything so keep stakes reasonable.
2. Today’s Italian games to avoid are Cagliari vs Cesena and Bologna vs Parma as they’re supposedly fixed.
The bin
Brondby vs FC Copenhagen – away win at 11/10.
I’m tempted to take a Copenhagen win here because they’re a lot better than Brondby nowadays. However, Brondby need it more given their European aspirations and Copenhagen have already won the title so I’ll give this one a miss, especially as Denmark’s biggest derby.
Double chance
1X:
Cherno More Varna
Deportes Quindio
Once Caldas Manizales
Jablonec
NSI Runavik
Augsburg
AEK Athens
KR Reykjavik
FH Hafnarfjordur
Internazionale
FK Ventspils
Skonto Riga
Cerro Porteno
Zalgiris Vilnius
Banga Gargzdai
Kruoja Pakruojis
Suduva Marijampole
Porto
CD Nacional de Madeira
Spartak Moscow
Rubin Kazan’
Zenit St.Petersburg
Metalac GM
Basel
Deportivo Lara
Deportivo Anzoategui
Atletico El Vigia
Deportivo Petare
Zamora
Featured game
Gaz Metan Medias vs Steaua Bucharest – home win at 7/5.
Today’s featured game is the Liga encounter in Romania between Gaz Metan and Steaua Bucharest.
Gaz Metan have impressed a lot this season and should their beat their more illustrious opponents today, they’ll actually be in the UEFA Europa League places, which would be a massive feat for what is realistically quite a small club. They’ve only lost twice in their fifteen home games this season and they owe a great deal of that success to their iron defence which have conceded just ten goals in fifteen home games, a record bettered only by Rapid Bucharest. On the downside of things, only Eric de Oliveira seems able to score goals for the hosts with his set pieces, skill, and movement. However, he the Brazilian attacker is undoubtedly one of the leading players in the Liga at the present time and I think he – along with the others – will be very motivated today as they would love to play European football next season.
Gaz Metan have played thirteen games since returning from the winter break and they’ve lost three of them. It’s no coincidence whatsoever that all of those defeats have been away from home and that all three have been against good sides, namely Vaslui, Poli Timisoara, and Rapid Bucharest respectively. Their strength has definitely been at home where their defence has looked more galvanised than ever, shipping just one goal in their last six home games. They’ve won their last two home games consecutively, the most recent of which was against a potent Dinamo Bucharest side and as they’re unbeaten in four games, morale is high and the players are looking forward to this game.
Things could be much better for Steaua Bucharest and their fans, however. Following a second derby defeat in their last game, manager Cartu took the decision to step down as Steaua boss. They’ve subsequently appointed former manager Cosmin Olaroiu, who guided the team to the title and a UEFA Cup Semi-Final back in 2006 but he knows what it’s like to be boss under crazy Gigi and has refused to manage Steaua longer than the last four games. Steaua are really demoralised at the moment following two disappointing derby losses against Rapid and Dinamo respectively, losing both without even scoring a goal. They’ve got a weak attack and creativity is minimal so it’s safe to say that this side has a lot of work to do in the summer.
However, as the biggest club in Romanian history, European football is naturally something that fans not only want but expect and Steaua do have a chance to claim a UEFA Europa League place next season. They can achieve it via their league placing, which is unlikely as they have a trip to in-form CFR Cluj looming large toward the end of this campaign. However, they do have another route to go down – the Cupa Romaniei. They’re playing Brasov in just three days in the second leg of the semi-final following a disappointing 0-0 draw at home and if they reach the final then chances are good that they’ll get a UEFA Europa League place because the final will most likely be against Dinamo Bucharest, who are likely to have a UEFA Europa League place via their league placing. Steaua need silverware to appease their fans so I do think they’ll pay more attention to the game at Brasov in a few days rather than this difficult encounter.
Steaua are broken mentally following poor results and lack quality players. They’ve got a big game in a few days and they’ve already lost at home to Gaz Metan this season. Gaz Metan have everything in their favour with a strong side packed full of players that know each others games very well indeed. For me, the hosts are priced generously at 7/5 given how poor Steaua have been lately and the problems that face them with constant managerial changes and Gigi’s attack on the players in the press.
Verdict: Gaz Metan Medias to win at 7/5
Additional games
Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow – over 2.5 goals at 57/50.
Hosts Lechia Gdansk have looked exhausted in their past few games. Consequently, they’ve started conceding a lot of goals, which is a problem because they don’t tend to score many to counter that. Maybe the sale of Wolakiewicz to Lech Poznan back in January has affected them a lot or perhaps it’s their congested fixture schedule but whatever it is, Lechia simply aren’t playing well. They’ve won once in their last nine games in all competitions and have gone over 2.5 goals in four out of their last five games due to averaging conceding two goals per game over their last five games. They didn’t deserve their draw at bitter rivals Arka Gdynia last match but managed to take a couple of chances that came their way as they do have some good players in their team. However, the tactic of late has been to rely upon ex-Rosenborg attacker Traore and see what can happen. Traore is a very good player indeed but Lechia need more than this if they’re to keep their European dream alive this year. Defensively, they’re all over the place and morale is a little low so I think they’ll struggle today, although they’ll probably get their token home goal!
Gdansk is never an easy venue for an away game but Wisla are one side that always enjoys their games with Lechia, having beaten them in every Ekstraklasa meeting since Lechia were promoted. Four out of their five games with Lechia in the Ekstraklasa have gone over 2.5 goals and this one should too, realistically. Wisla Krakow need the points; anyone can see that. Happily, they welcome back Bulgarian hitman Genkov for this game to provide a focal point of their 4-3-3 for Meliksson and Malecki to pass to, which aids Wisla greatly. They’ve been conceding stupid goals lately, which isn’t a surprise as their defence is vulnerable. However, not scoring goals has done them a lot of damage too, understandably, but that should hopefully be resolved now with Genkov back. Wisla have conceded a minimum of two goals for each of their last three away games in the Ekstraklasa and if they do that today then they’ll easily clear 2.5 goals as I thoroughly expect them to score with the big Bulgarian back in attack.
Bluntly, I expect an open and attacking game here. I don’t think either side is in good enough condition to do anything but attack and hope for the best here. Wisla are obviously the better team but Traore can cause problems and Lechia can definitely score from set pieces against Wisla’s shaky defence. However, you have to expect Wisla’s strong attack to score goals here – everyone else has scored against Lechia lately so it makes sense. This fixture has a habit of going over 2.5 goals and with both sides needing the points, I think we’ll see a very good game here with plenty of goals.
Team news – Lechia Gdansk miss Bak, Dawidowski, Sazankow, and Wisniewski whilst having doubts over Pietrowski whereas Wisla Krakow miss Bogusz, Boukhari, Bunoza, and Lobodzinski.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 57/50.