Tottenham Hotspur vs Werder Bremen
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League encounter in London between Tottenham Hotspur and Werder Bremen. Both sides atypically play a pacey attacking game so we should be in for an open encounter here with plenty of goals.
However, I’ve boldly decided to stick my neck out and back Tottenham Hotspur. “Why is that bold?” you may well be asking and my sole reason is this; you never know which Spurs side will show up. We could see the Spurs side that managed a frankly amazing comeback at The Emirates at weekend to win the derby 2-3 against all odds or we could see the Spurs side show up that lost at home to Wigan Athletic. There can’t be any doubts over the actual ability of this Spurs side; nor the excellent manager who looks after them. They’ve got arguably the quickest midfield in Europe and that is difficult enough as it is but when you see the variety that they have in attack then you can be forgiven for being a little apprehensive if your side is facing them. Spurs now have a fairly rusty but very welcome Jermain Defoe back in their team to give them four different who all bring something different to their game, which is a massive boost. Massively in-form Rafael Van der Vaart will be very motivated for this game too, no doubt, as Werder Bremen are the bitter rivals of his old club Hamburger SV. Spurs will be on top of the world after their derby win and rightfully so. Aside from my concern about their consistency, I’m only worried about their defence. Their two main centre-backs (Woodgate and King) almost never play together for respective injuries and even now-commonplace Michael Dawson is injured. With that in mind, it’s no surprise to see that Spurs are quite easy to overcome in defence although Gomes in net has looked in inspired form of late so all in all, with a place in the Champions League Knockout Stages on the horizon for Spurs if they win this game, I fancy them to be well up for this game and to take their chances too.
Of course, to balance out the issues I have with Spurs, I do have issues with Werder Bremen. Spurs may not be able to defend because of injured players but Bremen can’t defend either way. Their attacking style doesn’t allow for defence to even be considered, hence their record of just two clean sheets in twenty games in all competitions this season. It may sound a really obvious statement but the only times that Bremen don’t concede is when their opponents’ strikers don’t show up. I recall Bayern playing them off the park a few weeks back and not scoring so, putting it bluntly, Bremen are shit in defence. Of course, Bremen do remain a potent attacking unit and I’d normally bear that in mind to a sufficient enough degree to not back Spurs on the handicap here. However, let’s now take a quick look at who misses this game for Bremen – Naldo, Silvestre, Pasanen, Boenisch (virtually their whole defence), Wesley (playmaker), Frings (holding midfielder), Pizarro (only good striker), Borowski (midfield), and Armautovic (emerging striker). I don’t think I’m exaggerating by saying that at least half of Bremen’s starting eleven misses this game and with no Wesley to create and only a rather poor Almeida the only one left to take their chances, I really don’t fancy Bremen to do anything here unless Spurs give them the opportunity to do so on a plate. A lot of these missing players aren’t “new” absentees and it’s easy to see why Bremen haven’t scored in four consecutive games with the above players missing, losing three times and leaking twelve goals along the way. Bremen were fortunate enough to get back into the game between these two sides in Germany with Spurs having dominated the first-half – I don’t think they’ll be given the luxury of the choice tonight, however!
Although Spurs can be unreliable, you’d have to fancy their under 12’s against a decimated Bremen side tonight. Bremen will most likely attack as usual because it’s all they’re good at and let’s face it – Spurs are dodgy enough in defence to concede here. However, if Spurs don’t score at least three goals in this game then they all need shooting, to be blunt! Bremen have no defence, they can’t defend when they do have a defence, and Spurs qualify for the next round if they win this game. With that in mind, taking a Spurs win with a -1.5 goal handicap at 11/10 appeals to me.
Verdict: Tottenham Hotspur to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 11/10.
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Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Palmeiras vs Goias – home win with -1.5 handicap at 13/10.
You may recall the preview I did on the first leg of this Copa Sudamericana tie last week in regards to Goias resting players and Palmeiras taking this competition seriously and the away win was therefore somewhat expected but profitable. Since then, Goias have now been relegated from Serie A with just a couple of games remaining so instead of my tip tonight being about Goias not caring about the competition, it’s going to focus more on the fact that Goias are shit and demoralised, which is a pretty terrible combination, to be honest!
Palmeiras rested players at home to Atletico Mineiro at weekend whereas Goias fielded a full-strength side in their must-win game at home to Santos, which they lost. Goias are demoralised following relegation and to start giving a shit about the Copa Sudamericana after such a heavy blow and a defeat at home to Palmerias in the first-leg is beyond difficult. Palmeiras are not an easy side to play against; if Goias attack them then they’ll be picked off easily. Goias have only scored on one of their last four visits to face Palmeiras with Palmeiras winning each occasion. Four out of Palmeiras’ last five home wins have beaten the -1.5 goal handicap and with the knowledge that Goias are the biggest conceders in Serie A at the present time, you have to fancy the handicap home win here. Goias’ offer a good attack when it suits them but a 1-4 defeat at home to Santos should have done a lot of damage so I think Palmeiras can do it here.
My main concern here is that Palmeiras don’t have to beat the handicap here. Hell, they don’t even have to win the game so do approach this one with caution. Nonetheless, the gulf in class, morale, and even professionalism between these two sides all favour the superior hosts to a home win with the handicap appeals to me tonight.
Verdict: Palmeiras to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 13/10.
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Neath Athletic vs The New Saints – away win at 11/10.
Just as they do against most sides in the Welsh Premier League, TNS have a strong head-to-head record against Neath Athletic. Neath have done well this year, especially at home, but they’re not a greatly improved side, in my opinion. They’re a top seven side that has signed a striker too good for the division that they’re in (Lee Trundle – ex-Swansea City etc.) and they’re capitalising on that. Neath’s home record looks daunting with four wins and just one defeat from five home games, especially with an average of three goals scored per home game. However, I’d point out that they’ve played four shit sides at home and the only god side they’ve faced (Bangor City) was unsurprisingly the side that beat them. Neath have lost two consecutive home games against TNS over the past two years and it’s going to take more than a very good striker playing for them to convince me otherwise tonight. TNS’ away form concerns me; they’ve only won once in five away games as their losses over summer have clearly harmed them. However, I’d point to the fact that they’ve already travelled to face Llanelli and Bangor City this season so their record isn’t as bad as it appears, although I can’t explain their inability to win at Airbus UK nor Prestatyn Town. TNS are obviously not at the same level as they were last year but they’re still one of the top three sides in the Welsh Premier League so I’ll give them a chance here. Odds of 11/10 are understandable based on the league table and statistics but quality-wise, I still feel that TNS are a little long here. TNS are a superior side whereas Neath are a side with one very good striker. One player can make a difference, certainly, but I still feel TNS will have too much for Neath and really should win this game. Therefore, my call is the away win at 11/10.
Verdict: The New Saints to win at 11/10.
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Accumulator fodder:
Tottenham Hotspur, Valencia CF, Barcelona, Olympiakos Piraeus.
Recommended bets:
Tottenham Hotspur and The New Saints at 2/1.
Valencia CF, Barcelona, and Palmeiras -1.5 at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Rubin Kazan vs FC Copenhagen (6) 2-1
Internazionale vs Twente Enschede (5) 1-1
Tottenham Hotspur vs Werder Bremen (8) over 2.5 goals
Schalke 04 vs Olympique Lyonnais (5) 1-1
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs SL Benfica (7) 1-2
Rangers vs Manchester United (6) under 2.5 goals
Valencia CF vs Bursaspor (8) 2-0
Panathinaikos vs Barcelona (8) 1-2
Copa Sudamericana:
Palmeiras vs Goias (8) -1.5 handicap
Colombian Primera A:
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs La Equidad Bogota (7) 2-1
Atletico Huila vs Deportes Tolima (5) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
Willem II vs De Graafschap (4) over 2.5 goals
Roda JC Kerkrade vs FC Utrecht (7) 1-1
Greek Super League:
Ergotelis vs Olympiakos Piraeus (8) 1-2
Polish Liga 1:
Warta Poznan vs Gornik Polkowice (6) under 2.5 goals
Welsh Premier League:
Neath Athletic vs The New Saints (6) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!