TPS Turku vs FC Honka Espoo
FreeFor membership details, go here.
Today’s featured game is the Finnish Liiga Cup game between TPS Turku and FC Honka Espoo. Much like the game earlier this week, you could be forgiven for thinking that TPS were a side who would give Honka a good run for their money but I’d be surprised to see it today.
TPS were thrashed 1-3 by HJK Helsinki earlier this week and the same result today shouldn’t be far off. TPS Turku have not only sold Manninen, Wusu, Cleaver, Jovanovic, and the Riski brothers, but they’re also struggling for fitness from the players that remain with Johansson and Lehtovaara both having missed the game mid-week. This TPS Turku side is a shadow of the side it was last season due to their difficult financial position and I think that the best they can hope for this season is a mid-table finish, realistically. TPS simply aren’t that good a side anymore and with so many important players absent via one medium or another today, I really don’t see them getting a result in this game.
Honka have changed quite a lot since last season themelseves, however, so utilise some caution here. Honka have cleared out some dead wood as well as ex-captain Hakanpaa with Weckstrom, Koskimaa, and Henriksson being the dead wood in this instance. Honka haven’t rested on their laurels, however – they’re a big side now and with the financial support that they have, it’s no surprise to see them flexing their muscles in the transfer market with the signatures of Dudu (one of KuPS Kuopio’s stars last season), Aijala from MyPa Anjalankoski, and Duarte from Klubi 04 in the Ykkonen. Therefore, Honka’s losses aren’t anywhere near as extreme as TPS’ losses and that should be seen today. I’ve mentioned before about the massive success of African players in Finnish football due to their strong, quick, and physical ways and Dudu should be no exception for Honka this season, which bolsters their attack.
Long-term, we have to be wary with Honka because although they’re virtually guaranteed a top two finish (as usual!), it’s hard to say just what this side is capable of times with their suspect defending. However, I’ve got enough faith in their ability today and the lack of available players for their hosts to take the away win here. I’d have probably avoided it last season as the Liiga Cup had no purpose but because it does this season, I’m happy enough to take 4/5 on the away win as Honka could and probably should be at least 4/6 here in light of TPS’ absentees.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to win at 4/5.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Uzbekistan vs South Korea – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Over 2.5 goals looks too generously priced here by a long way! Neither side has anything to lose and both play attacking football so there must be goals here. The Uzbeks have gone over 2.5 goals in all of their games in the Asian Cup barring the 0-2 win against Qatar (which definitely should have gone over 2.5 goals!) so I’ve no doubting their contribution here, especially as they cannot defend, something which they illustrated rather well in their bizarre 0-6 defeat against Australia last match. I was surprised that Uzbekistan didn’t score but they’ll be keen to get a bit of pride back following their drubbing and let’s face it – this isn’t the strongest South Korea side by a mile so they have a chance here. South Korea may miss Park for this game through injury but there’s no confirmation on that as of yet. South Korea’s side aren’t just going to lie down here and bend over for the Uzbeks; there are a lot of hungry young players with points to prove for South Korea so I expect an open and attacking game today. Most of South Korea’s games in the Asian Cup have gone over 2.5 goals too but they’ll undoubtedly feel a little jaded following the exit against bitter rivals Japan last round with the Japanese needing extra-time and penalties to beat their rivals. However, South Korea will also be keen to save face a little here so again, both sides are playing with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Therefore, over 2.5 goals at evens looks far too generously priced and thus it’s my call today.
Team news – South Korea have doubts over the fitness of Ji-Sung Park.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Ecuador U20 vs Bolivia U20 – lay Ecuador U20 at 21/20.
I can’t really understand why Ecuador are so short for this game. Don’t get me wrong – they are better than Bolivia but not my the gulf that the odds suggest. Ecuador’s problem at all levels is that they don’t score enough goals. Ecuador simply don’t have natural goalscorers, generally speaking. I mean, you can look at the likes of Kaviedes and Delgado over the years but they’re just average target men. Ecuador seems to have a natural inability to groom strikers and it shows, even at this level. Ecuador have bagged just two goals in their three Copa Sudamericano games thus far and although they’re defending quite well, they’re just not troubling defences consistently enough. I don’t have any issues with their defence or even their midfield but if they don’t score goals then I don’t see how they can justify such short odds. Let’s also not forget that as long as Ecuador don’t lose this game then they’re already through so there’s a good chance that they’ll rest some players for this game, especially as even if Bolivia win then they’re going to have to score a few goals to do so and progress to the latter stages so again, I can’t justify such short odds on Ecuador, who are actually the joint-bottom goalscorers in the Copa Sudamericano along with Bolivia and Peru – not a great record, is it? Bolivia aren’t a great side themselves – they find it very hard to produce players – but what they do have is great spirit and organisation, something that every side that has faced them has discovered in this tournament. Considering that Bolivia are amongst the weaker sides in the tournament, the fact that they’ve only conceded four times in three games is really rather good, in my view. Brazil totally outplayed Bolivia but couldn’t take their chances which was partially down to a bad day at the office for Brazil and partially because Bolivia defended very well. Bolivia can be a really tough nut to crack and on the final day of the tournament, you have to fancy them to be up for this game against a potentially under-strength Ecuador side. Although the risk level is obvious, I think there’s value in laying Ecuador at 21/20.
Verdict: Lay Ecuador U20 at 21/20.
Colombia U20 vs Paraguay U20 – Colombia U20 to win at 7/5.
There’s not much in it but I do rate Colombia as the better of these two sides, which is the predominant reasoning behind the selection. Colombia have scored in every game so far and enjoyed a 2-1 win against Bolivia in their last game, a result which virtually assures them of a place in the latter stages of the Copa Sudamericano. Colombia have some very talented players coming through their academy, which is no doubt due to the strict Primera A ruling regarding a certain amount of youngsters needing to be utilised in the main squad of each team in the division. Colombia will take their chances when presented with them, basically, and as they qualify even if they fail to win here, I fancy some dangerous counter-attacks from the swift Colombians tonight. The Paraguayans aren’t bereft of talent themselves but unlike Colombia, they need to attack in this game and when they tried that against Brazil and Ecuador, they lost so you can see that they struggle to change their ways. Indeed, the only points Paraguay have obtained came from a 1-0 win against Bolivia, which is hardly great. Paraguay can be hard to beat but I don’t see why that should still stand today as they have to attack Colombia and that will suit Colombia perfectly. Although I’d advise caution when betting on this game due to Colombia not needing to win the game, I still think 7/5 on a Colombia win is very generous so that’s my call here.
Verdict: Colombia U20 to win at 7/5.
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs FSV Frankfurt – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
A Fortuna win at 10/11? No, thanks! I like this team but they’re not worth those odds!
Dusseldorf have made their living since regaining Bundesliga 2 status as a side that are quite simply immortal at home. They were immense at home last season due to an iron defence and strikers that took their chances and frankly, they were unlucky not to be promoted. This season has been different, however, with some good and frankly essential players departing the club in summer. Dusseldorf then went into a low period where they conceded easily and failed to score, hence the league placing. However, new signings and the squad blending means that Dusseldorf are back in business and for my money, they’re a top five side in the Bundesliga 2 so don’t write them off for their league placing although at the same time I would advise not over-estimating them as I think the bookies have here. I’m a bit concerned that Dusseldorf are playing with fire in their bellies currently and scoring goals for fun but generally speaking, this side does not attack carelessly – they defend solidly and take a few of their chances when opportunity presents itself so I have to look at the unders selection here.
FSV Frankfurt look under-estimated in this game, in my view. I think the bookies are placing a short price on Dusseldorf because of how poor Frankfurt were last season, which isn’t the case this season at all. Frankfurt aren’t simply over-achieving this season as some sides sometimes do – they’ve strengthened their side considerably since last season and are now a very hard side to play against, especially after a 4-0 demolition of Rot-Weiss Oberhausen last match. Frankfurt have only lost three times away from home in eight Bundesliga 2 games this season because no other side in the division has conceded less than they have away from home. Frankfurt’s goalscoring record isn’t great on the road but with a defensive record like that, it doesn’t have to be.
Statistically speaking, this game has a good chance of going under 2.5 goals too. Dusseldorf have gone under 2.5 goals in five out of their last seven games at home due to solid defending and being patient whilst six out of Frankfurt’s eight Bundesliga 2 away games this season have gone under 2.5 goals for the same reasons. These two sides are fairly well-matched and although I’d probably edge towards Dusseldorf quality-wise, they do have a big absence today with Lambertz suspended in midfield. Both of these sides look to dominate midfield to create their chances but without Lambertz, I don’t see Dusseldorf having it all their own way today. I think Frankfurt may edge the mammoth midfield battle in this game and as such, I think this game will go under 2.5 goals. For me, under 2.5 goals is priced too generously here, perhaps based on Dusseldorf’s little burst of late. However, from a tactics perspective, I think under 2.5 goals is a good call here.
Team news – Fortuna Dusseldorf miss Lambertz whereas FSV Frankfurt miss Tosunoglu.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Alcorcon vs Albacete – home win at 11/10.
This is a proper relegation six-pointer between newly-promoted Alcorcon and traditional strugglers Albacete so bet with caution here.
However, I have to side with Alcorcon here. Although their away form is highly questionable, their strength at home is very much unquestionable with seven wins in eleven Segunda Liga home games this season. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and Xerez, Valladolid, and Rayo Vallecano have all been defeated at Alcorcon already this season so why not Albacete tonight? Alcorcon have looked good since returning from the winter break and have won both home games during January so momentum is good for them currently and thus they should be taken seriously here.
However, the most convincing factor I can lend to this selection is the lengthy list of important absences that Albacete have. Defensively, Albacete are hard to break down but without important defender Kike, they should be penetrated quite easily today. They’re also missing midfielders Tato and Sousa, not to mention strikers Alfredo and Asen. Albacete are missing five regular starters for this game and Albacete just don’t have the depth to even come close to replacing those absent players today. Albacete have failed to score for two consecutive games now, losing both games 1-0, so morale is low. Defensively speaking, Albacete have a good record away from home but they’ve still lost six out of eleven because they don’t score goals away from home and with both regular strikers absent tonight, I don’t see their fate improving much in this game.
For me, there’s value in Alcorcon at 11/10. Albacete are missing a lot of vital players and although they’re hard to break down, the absence of Kike should help a good Alcorcon side on their way to three points. Either way, the hosts shouldn’t be as long as they are so my call is the home win tonight.
Team news – Alcorcon miss Rueda and have doubts over Nino wheras Albacete miss Kike, David Sousa, Tato, Alfredo, and Asen.
Verdict: Alcorcon to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Anorthosis Famagusta
Recommended bets:
TPS Turku and Anorthosis Famagusta at 2/1.
Over 2.5 goals in Zulte-Waregem vs Racing Genk, RKC Waalwijk vs Den Bosch, and Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hannover 96 at 4/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Cup Third Place Play-Off:
Uzbekistan vs South Korea (6) over 2.5 goals
Copa Sudamericano U20:
Ecuador vs Bolivia (5) 0-0
Colombia vs Paraguay (6) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Zulte-Waregem vs Racing Genk (5) over 2.5 goals
Cypriot Division 1:
Ermis vs Anorthosis Famagusta (8) under 2.5 goals
English Championship:
Millwall vs Barnsley (6)
English League One:
Colchester United vs Peterborough United (5) over 2.5 goals
English League Two:
Bury vs Shrewsbury Town (5)
Finnish Liiga Cup:
TPS Turku vs FC Honka Espoo (7) over 2.5 goals
VPS Vaasa vs JJK Jyvaskyla (5) 1-2, draw no bet
German Bundesliga:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hannover 96 (4) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs FSV Frankfurt (6) under 2.5 goals
Erzebirge Aue vs Osnabruck (6) over 2.5 goals
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Ingolstadt (4) both sides to score
Italian Serie B:
Empoli vs Varese (5) both sides to score
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs Guadalajara (6) under 2.5 goals
Dutch Eredivisie:
NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles Almelo (6) 2-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
RKC Waalwijk vs Den Bosch (6) over 2.5 goals
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (4) both sides to score
Veendam vs Zwolle (6)
Fortuna Sittard vs Eindhoven (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Sparta Rotterdam vs RBC Roosendaal (7) over 2.5 goals
Go Ahead Eagles vs Almere City (5)
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht ’90 (4) both sides to score
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Alcorcon vs Albacete (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!