TPS Turku vs VPS Vaasa
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter in south-west Finland between TPS Turku and VPS Vaasa.
TPS Turku bizarrely lost at home to a poor Haka Valkeakoski earlier this week, much to everyone’s frustrations, including my own. However, we can attribute that to the early dismissal of playmaker Kolehmainen, who subsequently misses this game. TPS Turku are still a good enough side to cause problems at home, especially with Aaritalo and Kuqi leading the line. However, I do question how good they’ll be without their playmaker as I’m not sure the squad has galvanised enough yet to be without what has become an integral part of their setup – Kolehmainen. Aaritalo is good enough to win this game on his own, if he wants to. However, are TPS Turku really in a position to command short odds for this game? I’m not so sure. They’ve got the firepower, that’s for sure, but I don’t think they have the creativity to dominate this game.
To make matters worse for the hosts, VPS Vaasa have really eased into their stride now and are nearing their peak of irritating displays in that hardly anyone can beat them. VPS play physical football with a well-organised team that only seems to want to score from set pieces! They also played Haka in their last home game, ironically, and they also should have won, which is even more ironic! Eight out of their last nine games have gone under 2.5 goals in the Veikkausliiga though, which tells you that games are going the way VPS like it – tight. They know they’ll get points if their defence does what it does because but if they take on an open game then they’ll get beat because goalscoring is not their forté, just as they demonstrated with a 3-1 defeat at Inter Turku earlier this season. VPS are good enough to really irritate TPS today, who will undoubtedly miss their playmaker when it comes to unlocking VPS’ two banks of four, so I think we could see a definite “no bet” from a 1×2 perspective here.
However, under 2.5 goals interests me an awful lot here. Again, Finland is a bit of a nightmare when it comes to taking on the under 2.5 goals bets sometimes as games that shouldn’t contain any goals randomly erupt into an orgy of goals (e.g. Jaro 8 RoPS 2, Jaro 1 MyPa 5, MyPa 3 Haka 0 etc.). However, from a logical perspective, this game really should go under 2.5 goals unless VPS capitulate at the back, which they’ve not done for some time now. The last two Veikkausliiga meetings between these two sides in Turku have gone under 2.5 goals and I think there’s a good chance we’ll see that occur again today.
Team news – TPS Turku miss Kolehmainen.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Daugava Daugavpils vs FK Ventspils – away win at 6/5.
I won’t lightly go against Daugava Daugavpils when they’re playing on their own turf but I feel I have to today due to their result earlier this week, which leads into varying reasons for today’s call. I mean, FK Ventspils are the better side – they’re probably the only side in the Virsliga that can actually say without fear of contradiction that they’re better than Daugava. That helps, as an underlying point!
However, the rest really comes from Daugava themselves. They’ve done well to re-establish themselves since their disgraceful demotion but they’re still not a great squad in terms of depth and subsequently, any kind of fixture congestion tends to harm them. Consider that they lost 0-5 three days ago against Norwegian outfit Tromso in the UEFA Europa League and that the return leg in four days time. Daugava now need to decide if they’ll use their tired first-team against Ventspils today and send their second string out to Norway next week (as the tie is pretty much lost) or whether they rest players here and play for pride next week. I cannot accept that they may use the same team for all three games because they don’t have a strong enough team to do that so one way or another, I expect Daugava to struggle here, especially after the crashing kick back down to reality dished out by their Scandinavian opponents mid-week.
I suppose the big question is whether Ventspils can take advantage of the above. As I mentioned earlier, they’re the better of these two sides but their form has been poor since Sukhanov has been suspended, losing back-to-back games. However, they welcome back Postnikov from suspension to solidify their defence and they do have the firepower to win this game, even without Sukhanov, who sits out the last of his three-match ban today. Ventspils have won their last two Virsliga trips to face Daugava and the floor is theirs to do the same again today.
For me, odds of 6/5 are worth a shot on the away win here because Ventspils are better and one way or another, Daugava will struggle here, in my view. We need Ventspils to roll their socks up and get on with what they do best because they simply are the best side in the Baltic, in my view. I therefore have to consider 6/5 on the away decent value here with the proviso that the Virsliga giants show up.
Team news: FK Ventspils miss Sukhanov.
Verdict: FK Ventspils to win at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Brazil, Trans Narva, Ekranas Panevezys, Suduva Marijampole.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today, sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa America:
Brazil vs Venezuela (8) over 2.5 goals
Paraguay vs Ecuador (5) 0-0
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Dinamo Minsk (6) 1-0
Gomel vs Torpedo Zhodino (6) 1-1
BATE Borisov vs Dinamo Brest (7) 2-1
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Tallinn vs Nomme Kaju (7) 2-0
Trans Narva vs Viljandi (10) -1.5 handicap
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
RoPS Rovaniemi vs IFK Mariehamn (5) 1-1
FC Honka Espoo vs Inter Turku (6) 2-2
TPS Turku vs VPS Vaasa (5) 1-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
HiFK Helsinki vs Hameenlinna (6)
PS Kemi Kings vs Viikingit Helsinki (6)
Irish Premier League:
Shamrock Rovers vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Japanese J-League:
Yokohama F.Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale (6) 2-2
Omiya Ardija vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (4) 0-1
Jubilo Iwata vs Vissel Kobe (6) 1-0
Latvian Virsliga:
Daugava Daugavpils vs FK Ventspils (6) 0-1
Skonto Riga vs FK Jurmala (6) 2-1
Jelgava vs Gulbene 2005 (5) 2-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Tauras Taurage vs Atlantas (7) 2-0
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Siauliai (6) 1-0
Ekranas Panevezys vs Kruoja Pakruojis (8) 2-0
Suduva Marijampole vs Banga Gargdzai (9) 2-0
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Rosenborg BK vs Sarpsborg 08 (6) 1-0
Haugesund vs Odd Grenland Skien (4) 1-1
Start Kristiansand vs Sogndal (7) 2-1
Brann Bergen vs Stabaek (6) 2-1
Lillestrom vs Viking Stavanger (4) 0-1
Molde FK vs Aalesund (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Hodd vs Asker (7)
Alta vs Strommen (6)
Kongsvinger vs Hamarkameratene (4)
Mjondalen vs Bryne (6)
Nybergsund vs Ranheim (5)
Randaberg vs Bodo-Glimt (6)
Sandefjord vs Lov-Ham Bergen (7)
Sandnes Ulf vs Honefoss (7)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Malmo FF vs IFK Norrkoping (7) 2-1
Orebro vs Elfsborg Boras (6) 2-1
Halmstad vs AIK Solna (7) 0-1
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Mjallby Solvesborg (5) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Hammarby vs Osters (7)
Enjoy your free betting tips!