Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Real Mallorca
FreeToday’s featured game is the Primera Liga encounter between Athletic Club de Bilbao and Real Mallorca at San Mames. Basque hosts Athletic have started the season brightly as usual and will no doubt bring momentum into this game as a result whereas Mallorca have encountered their usual obstacles over summer and aren’t the same side as last year, hence their somewhat sporadic start to the season
Athletic still have levels above them in the Primera Liga but I think it’s safe to call them a top seven side by now. Joaquin Caparros has forged a side that is very hard to beat and a side that enjoys scoring goals so Athletic are generally a tough nut to crack. The defence has been stabilised since Mikel San Jose returned to the team to partner nutcase Fernando Amorebieta, which helps distract sides from the fact that Athletic are particularly susceptible at left-back. Arising talent Aurtenexte is being played at left-back despite his youthful age and despite the likes of Xabier Castillo, Koikili, and Mikel Balenziaga being available to Caparros, which speaks volumes really. I don’t know if Caparros is showing the traditional Bilbao faith in youngsters with this choice or if he’s telling the others to buck up their ideas to get in this side but the youngster has started quite well and Bilbao yet again prove their worth by blending young talent into their squad seamlessly. Igor Martinez started his first Athletic game last night but wasn’t overly convincing, which means Bilbao are yet again rueing their strange decision to sell Aritz Aduriz a few years ago to Real Mallorca. Llorente only needs a consistent strike partner to forge a deadly strike duo but Bilbao are short on options with Ion Velez, Gaizka Toquero, and Igor Martinez all on the “maybe but not quite there yet” list. Iker Muniain is the perfect option, in my opinion, but Caparros has to be careful with his talented attacker as to nurture his talents rather than pressurise him immensely. I’d like to see Iturraspe more this season and Bilbao look to add another central midfielder to the side and let’s face it – after the departure of legend Francisco Javier Yeste, they need another midfielder in there. There’s immense pressure on Javi Martinez now Yeste has moved on and although he’s dealing with it well currently, Bilbao are going to stuggle at somepoint with this issue so they need to bring Iturraspe in sooner rather than later, in my opinion.
Anyway, I digress; I can talk about Bilbao all day long! They present a strong unit at home that is very hard to bet. Few sides win at San Mames because of the strong home support, the well-organised side, the untouchable Fernando Llorente, and the strict Joaquin Caparros. All of Bilbao’s players absolutely adore the shirt that they play in and that kind of loyalty is very rare nowadays so I have massive respect and admiration for “Los Leones”. Bilbao’s defence may be questionable at times but their determination and loyalty is never in doubt.
Real Mallorca undergo a transition every year where this “feeder club” sells their best players and does their best to adapt. To be fair, they do it very well indeed and often leave a good account of themselves despite a fairly unfamiliar side so they’re a side always to be wary of. Mallorca made an even more hefty loss than usual over the summer, however; Gregorio Manzano. His tactical brilliance at home won them many unexpected points and a feared reputation although his tactics on the road were very questionable. Mallorca have brought in Danish manage Michael Laudrup to relpace him, who is a good manager, so it’s not all bad. Incidentally, I’d also like to send my best wishes to ex-Danish internaional Brian Laudrup, the brother of Michael, as he has been diagnosed with cancer lately.
Returning to Mallorca – the islanders have never travelled well and although they won 3-1 in Bilbao last year, they don’t bring the same threat this year. Star striker Aritz Aduriz departed for Valencia CF, midfielders Valero and Suarez left for Villarreal and Atletico Madrid respectively, and experienced defender Josemi left to play for Iraklis in Greece. Mallorca have only brought in De Guzman in midfield and Cavenaghi in attack (on loan from Girondins de Bordeaux) so it’s not really enough to give Mallorca the same edge this year. Both of these players have been thrown in at the deep end and need to adjust rapidly in order for Mallorca to remain comfortably mid-table this year and I’ve not been massively impressed just yet, although I do believe that both are shrewd signings long-term. I’ve not yet included new Brazilian right-back Eduardo Ratinho because I don’t honestly know what to expect. His defensive skills aren’t great but they don’t usually need to be in the Primera Liga. His attacking skills are very good, however, so I’m yet to make up my mind as to whether this is a good replacement for Josemi or not, although it’s interesting to note that they signed him from Uzbek millionaires FC Bunyodkor, which is yet another example of South American talent joining wealthy Asian teams rather than moving to Europe. Mallorca’s strength last year was defence, however, and replacing Josemi with Ratinho is not a strong defensive move so we’ll see how that works out. Mallorca still have a well-organised side that can play football but with a lot of new faces and a difficult trip ahead of them tonight, I don’t fancy their chances, to be blunt.
If Llorente, Martinez, and Susaeta all start this game then I’m very confident of a Bilbao win, basically. Any of those players being absent gives me some doubt, especially Llorente, but the three of them form a dangerous backbone to this team that I personally enjoy watching a lot. I would imagine Caparros will field this side: Gorka, Iraola, Aurtenexte, San Jose, Amorebieta, Orbaiz, Martinez, Gurpegi, Susaeta, Lopez, and Llorente because Caparros prefers a more defensive line-up. I’d personlly put Iker Muniain up top with Llorente in a more balanced 4-4-2; hell, I’d even throw talented De Marcos in on the flank too! However, Caparros loves his central three of Gurpegi, Orbaiz, and Martinez so he’ll probably stick with them to combat the Mallorca side in typical battling fashion. Bilbao only miss Gabilondo and Toquero for this game and neither are massive losses although I do prefer Gabilondo to be at least in the squad as an alternative on the wing.
Nonetheless, Bilbao have enough here to defeat a Mallorca side that doesn’t travel well and that doesn’t bring the same threat as last year so the home win at evens intrigues me tonight, particularly with Mallorca’s attack yet to convince me in their opening few games.
Verdict: Athletic Club de Bilbao to win at evens.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Cerro Porteno vs Universitario de Sucre – home win with -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
I’ve gone into great detail in the past about the difficulty of Bolivian sides playing away from home in continental football both from a talent perspective and an altitude perspective. Unfortunately for Universitario, both of those are issues here with Paraguayan hosts Cerro Porteno vastly experienced in continental competition and Universitario travelling down from approximately 2700 metres above sea level to a mere 43 metres above sea level for this game, which is a migthy leap and will undoubtedly impact their display. They made a similar trip to face Colo Colo in Chile back in August and lost 3-1 and a similar scoreline tonight wouldn’t suprise me. Universitario aren’t massively experienced in continental football so it should come as no surprise to you all that they’ve lost four consecutive away games in continental competition, losing by two or more goals in three of those games. Cerro Porteno are no Gods themselves but having played in continental competition for at least six successive years now, it’s safe to say that they’re experienced. With Paraguay boasting little altitude advantage, Paraguayan sides generally don’t fare too well overall in this competition, particularly if they face a decent Brazilian or Argentinian side. However, a home game with little Universitario de Sucre should be right up their street and give the deadly strike duo of ex-Dynamo Kiev striker Roberto Nanni and Pablo Zeballos a chance to shine on the continental stage tonight and I think we’ll see it happen too. There’s great individual experience and ability in this Cerro Porteno side in comparison to Universitario side and it really should show. Cerro Porteno coach Javier Torrente has already confirmed his starting line-up of Barreto, Perez, Cardozo, Piris, P. Benitez, C.Benitez, Torres, Villarreal, Dos Santos, Nanni, and Zeballos. Cardozo is carrying an injury and may be swapped and Caceres unfortunately misses the game but there’s enough available for the hosts to win this game today, really. The Bolivians bring a 1-0 lead into this game so if you’re doubting the desire of Cerro Porteno to win this game by two goals or more then doubt no more; if they fail to do so then they’re out, basically!
I expect a strong display from the experienced hosts tonight and their ability overshadows their opponents so we really should see Cerro Porteno beat the -1.5 goal handicap at generous odds although it may take some time to break through their stubborn Bolivian opponents.
Verdict: Cerro Porteno to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 6/5.
Osasuna vs Real Sociedad – draw at 23/10.
You won’t often see me back a draw on this site but I’m sticking my neck out today to do so.
This game is a Basque derby, although it’s not the main one, which is usually fiercely-contested between Real Sociedad and Athletic Club de Bilbao. Nonetheless, tempers will be seen in this game as Basque sides absolutely loathe losing against each others so we tend to see defensive and low-scoring derbies in northern Spain. Osasuna are marginally better than Real Sociedad, in my opinion, but you wouldn’t know it from their displays so far this season. They’re the only Primera Liga side yet to register a goal and they’ve lost two out of their three games so far so things aren’t great in Pamplona currently, particularly as the club are still missing talented full-back/winger (depending on the tactics!) Cesar Azpilicueta, who joined Olympique de Marseille in summer. However, I would hasten to point out that Basque sides generally don’t travel well and Osasuna’s two defeats have come on the road thus far. They’ve been unimpressive pre-season too, drawing far too many games and not converting chances so the pressure on ageing Walter Pandiani is more intense than ever. Osasuna have tried to relieve that pressure by signing Red Star Belgrade giant striker Lekic and Chilean striker Medina from Castellon but it’s not paid off just yet.
Their visitors Real Sociedad, however, are having few problems scoring goals. They brought in old youth academy product Joseba Llorente from Villarreal and experienced Primera Liga striker Raul Tamudo from Espanyol over the summer to give Sociedad a very good chance indeed of avoiding the drop this year. They’ve impressed me a lot so far, as much as it pains me to admit it! Xabi Prieto and David Zurutuza is providing the necessary creativity in midfield to feed their lethal attack duo whilst Rivas and Aranburu provide the muscle in the middle. Sociedad’s problem, however, is defending. They’re the weakest of all three Basque outfits in the Primera Liga defensively and it’s shown so far, especially so when they conceded twice at arguably the most impotent side in the Primera Liga currently – Almeria. I like the central pairing of Ion Ansotegi and Mikel Gonzalez but they look so susceptible in their full-back areas that I really fear for them today. Osasuna will always go down the flanks given choice as they have big target men and thus take joy from both crosses and obtained set pieces. Sociedad are going to have to be very careful here as Osasuna are likely to be a wounded animal against them so they need to approach this game sensibly or they could get burned here.
Rather amusingly, none of the last six encounters between these two sides has ended in a draw although I’d hasten to point out that neither side is as good as they used to be. Consider that no Primera Liga side drew more home games than Osasuna last year with eight draws in nineteen home games and the fact that they only lost four of the remaining games from that equation shows how hard it is to win in Pamplona. Then consider that only Hercules Alicante drew more away games than Real Sociedad did in the Segunda Liga last year and you’ll see where I’m coming from here. Real Sociedad will give as good as they get in this game so card markets are definitely worth looking at here. However, I think we’ll see two very stubborn sides grind out a hard-fought and low-scoring draw and the odds are decent enough to give it a whirl.
Verdict: Draw at 23/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Cerro Porteno, Birmingham City.
Recommended bets:
Athletic Club de Bilbao, Real Madrid, and a draw between Osasuna and Real Sociedad at 6/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Copa Sudamericana:
Cerro Porteno vs Universitario de Sucre (9) -1.5 handicap
Deportes Tolima vs Oriente Petrolero (7) 2-1
Baltic League:
Flora Tallinn vs Suduva Marijampole (6) 0-1
Trans Narva vs Siauliai (4) 1-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz (6) 1-2
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Sint-Truiden vs Racing Genk (7) 1-2
English League One:
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Exeter City (5) both sides to score
Plymouth Argyle vs Brighton & Hove Albion (5)
English League Cup:
Brentford vs Everton (6) under 2.5 goals
Portsmouth vs Leicester City (6) 1-1
Stoke City vs Fulham (5) 0-0
Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Millwall vs Ipswich Town (5) over 2.5 goals
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Notts County (5) 2-1
Burnley vs Bolton Wanderers (6) 0-1
Birmingham City vs Milton Keynes Dons (8) 2-0
Sunderland vs West Ham United (7) 2-1
Peterborough United vs Swansea City (5) 1-1
German Bundesliga:
Mainz 05 vs Koln (6) 1-0
Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Hannover 96 vs Werder Bremen (5) 2-2
German Bundesliga 2:
Hertha BSC Berlin vs Karlsruher SC (7) over 2.5 goals
Paderborn vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (5)
Energie Cottbus vs Greuther Furth (6)
FSV Frankfurt vs Alemannia Aachen (4)
Irish Premier League:
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians (6) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Home United (6) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Primera Liga:
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Real Mallorca (7) 2-1
Osasuna vs Real Sociedad (7) 0-0
Real Madrid vs Espanyol (7) 2-0
Swedish Superettan:
Hammarby vs Degerfors (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!