France vs Croatia
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Today’s secondary featured game is the friendly between France and Croatia. Over the past few years, I cannot name one instance where I’d have taken France in this game but how times have changed!
My change in mind has come about because of one man; Laurent Blanc. He’s a superb manager and you can see what an effect his stable managerial style is having on a disruptive and sullen French team. Under his stewardship, they’ve won six games in a row and have kept five clean sheets along the way despite facing Brazil in one of those games. France aren’t dominating anyone from a goals perspective but they’re winning games efficiently and thus they’re the side not to face at the moment. Is anyone else reminded immensely of Girondins de Bordeaux’s style of play when Blanc was in charge there? I sure am! Despite all the crap that happened at the World Cup with player striking etc. Blanc has just got on with his job and the fuss is gradually dying down now. He’s got Evra back in the fold and despite missing Gallas and Abidal, his defence looks rock-solid. They could do with having Toulalan back in midfield but that’ll happen in due course, I’m sure.
France’s preparations for the game against Luxembourg away were hit by the withdrawal of Arsenal midfielder Diaby before his replacement (LOSC Lille midfielder Cabaye) also withdraw, who was subsequently replaced by Saint-Etienne midfielder Matuidi. It’s not a great issue for the French as they do have options in midfield but again, the sooner they bring Toulalan back, the better, as far as I am concerned.
Blanc intriguingly made Nasri captain for that game, which puzzled me. The guy is a great attacking midfielder but he’s not captain material, in my eyes at least. Then again, what do I know? Blanc is one of the best managers around at the moment so I’m not going to stand in his way! With Ribery also back in the fold and Benzema and Menez threatening in attack, this France side suddenly looks dangerous and cohesive again; they’re ready to be backed again, basically.
I rate Slaven Bilic a lot as a manager and I genuinely don’t think that Croatia have looked as good as they do now since they had Boban, Prosinecki, and Suker back in the ’90’s. Bilic has created a new super Croatia team that although is lightweight in strikers, it still has terrific support from midfield. Their trio of Perisic, Kranjcar, and Modric is terrifying and can win them any game. Their strikers are a bit hit-and-miss though, with Petric bringing pace, Jelavic bringing power, Eduardo bringing skill, and Kalinic still learning the trade but none of them bring enough to make Croatia a consistent threat in attack, in my view. As much as I don’t think much of Olic as a finisher, what he did bring to every Croatia game was an infectious level of tenacity in attack that his contemporaries would do well to emulate or they’ll find themselves on the receiving end of more results like the 1-0 defeat in Georgia last match. Croatia kept the ball well but did very little with it in the final third, relying on set pieces and counter-attacks but with little success. That game in Georgia was a tiring one for Croatia and they’ve now had a mammoth trip across Europe to play in-form France away and to be blunt, I just don’t fancy their chances here. Strinic and Lovren aren’t experienced enough at the back and Croatia are lacking a finisher at the moment so although the visitors are very much capable of troubling their hosts, I just don’t think they will tonight.
It’s a friendly game; keep stakes to a reasonable level. However, for me, France are far too generously priced at evens against a tired Croatia side that aren’t scoring goals. It may be worth looking at the HT/FT Draw/HW market here as it can take time to break Croatia down but tiredness should eventually allow the win to be France’s. Therefore, my call is a France win at evens.
France squad:
Goalkeepers – Lloris, Mandanda, Carrasso
Defenders – Sagna, Evra, Rami, Mexes, Sakho, Reveillere, Clichy, Koscielny
Midfielders – Ribery, Gourcuff, Nasri, Malouda, M’Vila, Diarra, Matuidi
Attackers – Remy, Hoarau, Gameiro, Menez, Benzema
Croatia squad:
Goalkeepers – Pletikosa, Runje, Subasic
Defenders – Simunic, Srna, Corluka, Strinic, Lovren, Vida, Vrsaljko, Schildenfild
Midfielders – Kranjcar, Modric, Pranjic, Rakitic, Vukojevic, Dujmovic, Ilicevic, Badelj, Perisic
Attackers – Petric, Eduardo, Mandzukic, Jelavic, Kalinic
Verdict: France to win at evens.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Sweden vs Moldova – both sides to score at 8/5.
Sweden are 1/6 to beat Moldova; how? Moldova aren’t an easy side to beat and Sweden aren’t a consistent threat in front of goal so I’m immediately puzzled here.
I anticipate a much closer game than the bookies do, despite Moldova missing the likes of Borev and Savinov in defence, not to mention attackers Frunza and Dadu. Why? Well, Sweden’s attack is very much like their best attacker; tempremental. I’m referring to Zlatan Ibrahimovic, of course. If he turns up then they can win this game 5-0 but if he doesn’t then they can easily draw the game. Elmander has had a great season but he’s one of those players that only plays well for certain managers and although Coyle is one of them, I don’t know if Hamren is one yet or not – only time will tell. At this level, Berg and Rosenberg are average strikers and Hamren curiously decided to leave out PSV Eindhoven’s Toivonen, despite his excellent form. Therefore, Hamren’s attacking must surely go to his midfield to support their attack but there’s no Svensson or Hysen in this squad, leaving the responsibility with Kallstrom, Elm, and Wilhelmsson, none of which are particularly consistent. Lastly, this Sweden side misses four important defenders with Mellberg, Hansson, Dorsin, and Majstorovic all out of the squad so in all honesty, I have doubts for Sweden all over their squad for this game and that makes 1/6 on the home win look very short indeed.
Moldova aren’t a great side but they’re a good unit. There are few sides in Europe that are easy to beat nowadays and Moldova simply aren’t one of those sides. They’ve scored in seven out of their last eight away games, giving the likes of Hungary, Armenia, Israel, Belarus, and Georgia tough games and I think they’ll do the same today. True enough, Moldova have lost more games than they’ve won or drawn away from home but they do have the ability to score goals. Bugaoiv will have the main responsibility for Moldova’s goalscoring threat in this game and he’ll need a lot of support but Sweden are vulnerable enough at the back to concede in this game so I think Moldova have enough in their arsenal to cause damage here. Captain Epureanu will have his hands full against Ibrahimovic and Elmander, if that is indeed Hamren’s choice of attack, but Moldova are a lot more attacking than they’re given credit for and given that Sweden don’t tend to score many goals, I think we’re in for quite a close game here.
For me, backing both sides to score at 8/5 when both sides miss important defenders looks a really good call today. There’s obviously a risk element as Sweden are the better side but I think both sides will score here and there’s considerably more value in that selection than entering the unpredictable 1×2 market.
Sweden squad:
Goalkeepers – Isaksson, Wiland
Defenders – Wendt, Granqvist, Antonsson, Almeback, Lustig, J.Olsson
Midfielders – R.Elm, Bajrami, S.Larsson, Kallstrom, M.Olsson, Wernbloom, Wilhelmsson
Attackers – Berg, Elmander, Gerndt, Rosenberg, Ibrahimovic
Moldova squad:
Goalkeepers – Namasco, Calancea, Matyugin
Defenders – Armas, Golovatenco, Epureanu, Bulgaru, Racu, Bolohan, Ilescu, Cebotari
Midfielders – Andronic, Suvurov, Bordian, Tigirlas, Cebotaru, Cojocari, Frantuz, Patras, Gheorghiev
Attackers – Picusceac, Dedov, Doros, Bugaoiv
Verdict: Both sides to score at 8/5.
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Romania vs Luxembourg – away win with +2.5 handicap at evens.
Things are going from bad to worse for Romania! Pressure on Lucrescu Jr. and his team is increasing with fans increasingly unhappy with his defensive tactics. Romania barely got out of their own half against Bosnia-Herzegovina last match and despite scoring a good goal, that was pretty much all they did to attack and score goals. Bosnia eventually came from behind after a period of pressure and won the game 2-1, almost ending Romania’s chances of qualifying for the UEFA European Championship so the mood in the Romania camp isn’t great at the moment. Then consider that only Mutu, Stancu, and Zicu are capable of doing damage to opponents from a goalscoring perspective and you really start to worry for the demoralised hosts. They’re a good side on their day and I’ve no doubt at all that Goian will hold them together in defence but I question where their goals will come from and I question if they’ll even try to score a lot here with Lucrescu Jr. much preferring a defensive approach.
Therefore, I think Luxembourg have a decent shout here. They’re another side that are getting increasingly better and their last international game against a similar level of opponent saw them come from behind against a defensive Slovakia side to win 2-1 so why not again today? They miss Strasser at the back, which is a big blow as he’s the most capped Luxembourgian player of all time, to my knowledge. They also miss Reiter in defence, Fons Leweck in midfield, and Kitenge in attack but to be honest, Luxembourg play well as a unit so none of those three should prove to be a massive loss. Strasser’s absence does concern me a little here and if Luxembourg were facing a more in-form or more potent side than Romania then I’d probably leave it but with the hosts in such a vulnerable state, I have to give Luxembourg a shot here.
For me, giving Luxembourg a +2.5 goal head start at evens represents some value here as the hosts aren’t playing well and aren’t scoring goals whereas the visitors haven’t conceded more than twice in a game for six consecutive games, despite facing Slovakia, France (twice) and Belarus along the way. Luxembourg have only lost three out of their last six games so I wouldn’t be too quick to jump on a Romania win here; far from it! Instead, I’m giving the visitors a +2.5 goal head start at decent odds.
Romania squad:
Goalkeepers – Lung Jr., Tatarusanu, Pantilimon
Defenders – Goian, Chivu, Tamas, Rat, Sapunaru, Salageanu, Gardos, Rapa
Midfielders – Rapotan, Zicu, Alexa, Torje, Deac, Florescu, Muresan, Cocis
Attackers – Alexe, Stancu, Mutu, Marica
Luxembourg squad:
Goalkeepers – Oberweis, Joubert
Defenders – Hoffman, Schnell, Blaise, Plein, Martino, Bukvic, Kettenmeyer
Midfielders – Mutsch, Laterza, Payal, Bettmer, Leweck, Gerson
Attackers – da Mota, Joachim, Collette
Verdict: Luxembourg to win with a +2.5 goal handicap at evens.
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Estonia vs Serbia – home win with draw no bet at 2/1.
Estonia won the reversal of this fixture 1-3 in Belgrade, which symbolised two things; the increasing rate at which Estonian football is developing (besides the match-fixing antics of Trans Narva!) and the rate at which Serbian football is stagnating, much like Italian football.
Estonia are consistently being underestimated by punters around the world at the moment and you need to make sure that you’re not one of them. They’re a physical side like all the Baltic nations are but they have an additional class to them that I’ve not really seen in this region before. Emerging striker Kaimer Saag is getting better with each passing game and with the pace and trickery of Kink, the speed of Purje, and the passing of Puri, this Estonia side has the potential to upset sides just as they did last match when they beat Uruguay 2-0. Experienced striker Andreas Oper is on hand if they don’t want to start young Saag because of his age but Estonia have a largely first string available to them barring Stepanov at the back. Pacey Zenjov, creative Lindpere, and experienced Viikmae miss the game but none of the afore-mentioned are irreplaceable so Estonia are looking strong here. Bear in mind that Estonia have only lost twice in their last ten home games in all competitions and that they’ve only failed to score in two of those games and you can see the foundations as to why I fear for Serbia here.
Serbia will miss Krasic, Stankovic, and Subotic for this game. It’s almost like out of the frying pan and into the fire, isn’t it? They’ve just brought back powerhouse attacker Zigic and aerial assault machine Vidic in defence and then they lose their best and most creative midfielder, their most experienced midfielder, and Vidic’s defensive partner! Serbia were pretty woeful in their home game against Northern Ireland and barely deserved to win the game, in all honesty – only Dynamo Kiev midfielder Ninkovic made the difference in a depleted and unimaginitive Serbia team and it’ll take more than that against a tricky Estonia side today. Zigic’s return would normally give them a boost but to be honest, Estonia’s defenders are huge too so I don’t see Serbia’s usual attacking advantage being prominent here. The fact that they have Tosic and Kuzmanovic available on the flanks does aid their wide game considerably but Krasic missing this game through suspension is a huge blow for them and one that I don’t think they can deal with here. Their defence is still solid, even without Subotic as Ivanovic may simply move to the middle of defence. However, Serbia’s defence is prone to pace and Estonia have a lot of it so I think Serbia have yet another long night of football against Estonia looming large tonight!
For me, the odds on this game are based on name alone because there’s little between the two sides nowadays, in my opinion. I think taking Estonia to win this game with draw no bet cover at 2/1 is an absolute bargain here, especially as this pitch is going to virtually be quagmire due to shit weather!
Estonia squad:
Goalkeepers – Kotenko, Londak, Pareiko
Defenders – Kams, Jaager, Barengrub, Klavan, Kruglov, Morozov, Piiroja, Rahn, Sidorenkov, Sisov
Midfielders – Dimitrijev, Kink, S.Puri, Vunk, Purje, Vassiljev
Attackers – Saag, Oper, Zahovaiko, Ahjupera
Serbia squad:
Goalkeepers – Brkic, Saranov, Jorgacevic
Defenders – Kolarov, Ninkov, Bisevac, Ivanovic, Obradovic, Vidic, Rajkovic, Subotic
Midfielders – Tosic, Ljajic, Stankovic, Milijas, Jovanovic, Petrovic, Krasic, Ninkovic, Kuzmanovic, Petrovic
Attackers – Pantelic, Zigic, Sulemajni, Ilic
Verdict: Estonia to win with draw no bet at 2/1.
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Lithuania vs Spain – both sides to score at 31/20.
Bold? Maybe! I still fancy it though!
Why? Well, Lithuania are doing the old Mourinho trick of making sure everything is in their favour ahead of this game, right down to the most tiny detail. For instance, this game is being played at the S.Dariaus ir S.Gireno Stadionas in Kaunas, which has no heating and thus the playing surface is just about equivilant to granite currently!
In addition to the above, the bloodshed that followed the game against Poland last match is sure to have fuelled the determination of the players to do well in this game, especially as they won the last match to boost their morale. Lithuania managed to rest some of their stars ala Sernas for that game so they can name a full-strength side here.
I watched the game between these two when it was in Spain and the 3-1 scoreline flattered Spain in a fairly even game, in my view. Spain’s defence has been susceptible for some time now, as was indicated by even the Czech Republic scoring against them last match and I would not be surprised at all to see Lithuania score here. Their main weapon will surely be Stankevicius’ long throw because Danilevicius in attack will be able to do as he wishes with no Puyol still for Spain. Pique has looked lost lately and it’s making Spain look very vulnerable at the back so the two Cesnauskis’ and Mikoliunas can do a lot of damage here for the hosts, as can in-form Sernas, so don’t write Lithuania off here!
Spain did deserve to beat the Czechs comfortably last match but it was not to be with substitute Torres missing some easy chances after coming on, needing Villa to bail the Spanish side out. They monopolised the ball, as you’d expect, but they still conceded from a Plasil shot outside the box and still looked dubious at the back despite the impotent attack of the Czech Republic. Spain really should win this game and I must confess that I’d be surprised to see any result but that tonight.
However, there’s no value in backing Spain at 1/4, in my opinion, so I’m avoiding that particular bet. Instead, I’m opting for a bold bet of both sides to score here because the above makes me think it’ll happen just as it did in the reversal of this fixture and the odds are generous enough to take a chance on. Therefore, my cal is for both sides to score in this game.
Lithuania squad:
Goalkeepers – Setkus, Cerniauskas, Karcemarskas
Defenders – Radivicius, Kijanskas, Skerla, Zaliukas, Zvirgzdauskas, Barovskij, Stankevicius
Midfielders – Semberas, Panka, E.Cesnauskis, D.Cesnauskis, Mikoliunas, Razanauskas, Ivaskevicius, Galkevicius, Papsys
Attackers – Danilevicius, Sernas, Labukas, Astrauskas
Spain squad:
Goalkeepers – Casillas, Valdes, Reina
Defenders – Albiol, Pique, Marchena, Iraola, Capdevila, Ramos, Arbeloa
Midfielders – Iniesta, Xavi, Xabi Alonso, Busquets, Cazorla, Martinez, Silva, Navas, Mata
Attackers – Villa, Torres, Llorente
Verdict: Both sides to score at 31/20.
Northern Ireland vs Slovenia – away win with draw no bet at evens.
Northern Ireland aren’t a side that I like to bet against when they’re at home but if ever there was a time to bet against them with confidence then it’s now. There’s no Maik Talyor in goal, no leading goalscorer Healy in attack, no creative Johnson in midfield, no solid defender McCartney, and no battling Paterson in attack. Their best defender Jonny Evans has had a fairly poor season for Manchester United and with Lafferty having withdrawn from the squad, it looks like only Chris Brunt’s set pieces are a danger for Northern Ireland and against a well-organised Slovenia side, that doesn’t fill me with fear here. Northern Ireland didn’t really deserve to lose in Serbia at weekend, in my view, but they still did due to a lack of experience and that’s what I expect again today from the hosts, who amusingly haven’t won at home since Slovenia last came knocking back in April 2008.
Since then, Slovenia have matured as a side and have even been to the World Cup so you can see how they’ve advanced. There’s no Zlatko Zahovic nowadays but Robert Koren isn’t far off in the eyes of their fans with his consistently good displays in the middle of the park leaving the Slovenians not even noticing the absence of Vitesse Arnhem playmaker Stevanovic, whom I rate very highly indeed. Slovenia have a lot of options for Koren to work with though, to be fair. They’ve got the target man skills of Novakovic in attack and the lightning pace of Matavz, Decic, and Ljubljankic alongside him, not to mention the trickery and set pieces of Valter Birsa. Bacinovic and Ilicic are having fantastic campaigns at Palermo in Serie A and will make the Slovenian midfield very strong indeed here if they’re fielded. Let’s face it – Slovenia were a shade unlucky to lose agianst Italy a few days ago as they matched them en mass but failed to score the important goal. Northern Ireland aren’t as good at the back as Italy are, in my view, and Slovenia should be able to capitalise on that today, although they do miss big Cesar at the back through suspension.
The advantage must go to Slovenia here. Northern Ireland have scored in just one of their last four home games and I see no reason for that to change today. Slovenia, on the other hand, have been very good indeed away from home since returning from the World Cup, winning at Estonia and Albania and drawing at Serbia. This Slovenia side is strong nowadays and although they’ll struggle if they lose any of their back four as they don’t have depth in that area, I still think they’ve got a very good chance of winning this game so my call is a Slovenia win with draw no bet cover at evens.
Northern Ireland squad:
Goalkeepers – Camp, Tuffey, Blayney
Defenders – Cathcart, Evans, McAuley, Craigan, Baird, Thompson, Hughes, Hodson
Midfielders – McGinn, Evans, Davis, Clingan, Gorman, Brunt, McCann, McCourt,
Attackers – Feeney, Boyce, McQuoid
Slovenia squad:
Goalkeepers – J.Handanovic, Belec, S.Handanovic
Defenders – Brecko, Suler, Cesar, Andelkovic, Jokic, Mavric, Ilic, Viler
Midfielders – Koren, Bacinovic, Birsa, Kirm, Radosavljevic, Ilicic, Sukalo, Vrsic, Pecnik
Attackers – Ljubljankic, Novakovic, Decic, Matavz
Verdict: Slovenia to win with draw no bet at evens.
Belarus vs Canada – home win at 4/5.
Don’t touch this game if the odds drop because there’s no Aliasandar Hleb, Yurevich, Zhevnov, Kutuzov, or Rodionov, which does a lot of damage to Belarus’ attack en mass as well as robbing them of some defensive stability.
However, with odds of 4/5 available on a Belarus win, I’m very much interested as they’re an excellent passing side. Their attack lacks power without BATE Borisov striker Rodionov and experienced Kutuzov, generally speaking. However, pacey Kovel, hard-working Kornilenko, and skilful Vyacheslav Hleb should have enough between them to score at least once here. The most important part of Belarus’ game stems from their midfield and with playmaker Krivets and Rubin Kazan midfield general Kislyak both available for Bernd Stange, I think they’ll have enough to win the game today, especially with Putsila also ready to cause problems.
Canada are a decent defensive side but nothing more than that. They tend to lack punch in their attack and with their most experienced strikers De Rosario and Occean missing this game, not to mentioned powerful Hume, I don’t see the visitors scoring here. Indeed, they’re missing a hefty chunk of their midfield and defence too with De Guzman, Bernier, De Jong, and Imhof all out of the squad so Canada look very weak indeed. Hutchinson is a good box-to-box midfielder and they’ll need him to stifle the Belarus 4-5-1 today but with only Simeon Jackson a threat for Canada and so many experienced players missing from a fairly weak side, I have to favour a Belarus win at 4/5.
Belarus squad:
Goalkeepers – Amelchenko, Vyeramko, Gomelko
Defenders – Shitov, Martynovich, Molosh, Amelyanchuk, Sasnowski, Bardachov
Midfielders – Kulchiy, Tshiarow, Zhavnerchik, Krivets, Putsila, Kislyak, Bychanok, Sitko, Kalachev, Nekhayachik
Attackers – Kovel, V.Hleb, Kornilenko
Canada squad:
Goalkeepers – Borjan, Hirschfeld
Defenders – Peters, Klukowski, McKenna, Hainault, Stalteri, Straith, Edgar
Midfielders – Johnson, Simpson, Pacheco, Hutchinson, Ledgerwood, Ricketts, Beaulieu-Bourgault, Nakajima-Farran
Attackers – Friend, Jackson
Verdict: Belarus to win at 4/5.
Qatar vs Russia – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
I think this one speaks for itself, really. Qatar are a very under 2.5 goals sort of team; staying defensive and not scoring many at home. Only Soria in attack is a real threat for them and Russia shouldn’t be troubled by him today. Russia enter this game on the back of a 0-0 draw with Armenia and won’t want injuries in a simple friendly with club games beginning at weekend for most of their players. I think we’ll see a somewhat half-arsed display from Russia and given that they don’t have the creativity to engineer goals on a consistent basis, I don’t see them walking away with this game. Indeed, on unfamiliar turf, they may not even with the game. However, under 2.5 goals looks too generously priced at 4/5 for two low-scoring sides so that’s my call here.
Russia squad:
Goalkeepers – Akinfeev, Malafeev, Ryzhikov
Defenders – Ignashevich, A.Berzeutskiy, V.Berzeutskiy, Zhirkov, Shishkin, Anyukov, Makeev
Midfielders – Shirokov, Denisov, Zyrianov, Dzagoev, Semshov, Bilyaletdinov, Glushakov, Torbinskiy, Ionov
Attackers – Kerzhakov, Pavlyuchenko, Arshavin, Pogrebnyak
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Republic of Ireland vs Uruguay – both sides to score at 4/5.
Republic of Ireland enter this friendly on the back of an important 2-1 victory at home to the Republic of Macedonia at weekend so morale should be pretty high here. However, it cannot be overlooked that their defence is somewhat vulnerable at the momen with no Given in goal and no experienced O’Shea at the back and that was visible against Republic of Macedonia. In addition to that, Republic of Ireland have been hit by the withdrawals of Keane, Duff, Dunne, Kilbane, and Doyle, which are all big blows for the Irish. Uruguay are not the kind of side to give opportunities to at the back but I suspect that’s what’ll happen here. Uruguay themselves are missing Suarez, which does damage their dangerous trio, although Forlan and Cavani should be enough by themselves to take advantage here. Tabarez really needs to utilise Gargano in this game as it cost Uruguay during their 2-0 defeat at Estonia at weekend to not have enough creativity in the middle of the park and given that pacey Rodriguez isn’t even in the squad for Uruguay, they need all the attacking help that they can muster from midfield. Defensively, the absence of Victorino may hurt Uruguay although Lugano and Godin should have enough between them to cope.
I think we’ll see a real contrast in styles with the Irish closing their hispanic opponents down a lot but with their opponents passing the ball really well. However, due to the withdrawals of Keane, Duff, Doyle, Dunne, and Kilbane, I cannot see beyond a Uruguay win so my call is the away win at 6/4.
Republic of Ireland squad:
Goalkeepers – Forde, Randolph, Westwood
Defenders – Clark, Foley, Kelly, O’Dea
Midfielders – Fahey, Gibson, Green, Lawrence, McCarthy, McGeady, Treacy, Whelan, Wislon
Attackers – Keogh, Long
Uruguay squad:
Goalkeepers – Castillo, Muslera
Defenders – Lugano, Godin, Fucile, Pereira, Scotti, Caceres
Midfielders – Gonzalez, Eguren, Pereira, Perez, Rios, Ramirez, Gargano
Attackers – Forlan, Abreu, Hernandez, Fernandez, Cavani
Verdict: Uruguay to win at 6/4.
Portugal vs Finland – both sides to score at 23/20.
Before you start throwing Portugal into your accumulators, please be aware that there is no Ronaldo! Bear in mind that he virtually carries the team most of the time so I wouldn’t bet on the 1×2 market here at all.
Portugal stumbled to a 1-1 draw against Chile at weekend so why not again today? Finland aren’t anywhere near as bad as most people like to think that they are and I fancy them to give Portugal a good game here, just as they did against Belgium in their last away game. The removal of Baxter from management in charge of Finland appears to have done the Scandinavian side a lot of good and they look a threat again now. Defensively, they can be troubled, especially now that Lampi has withdrawn from the squad. However, their real strongpoint is their midfield, which has many good passers of the ball in it ala the two Eremenkos, emerging Riku Riski, Vayrynen, Sparv, and Porokara. They lack a solid holding midfielder that they used to have in the likes of Ilola or Rihilati but they keep the ball well enough to cope, usually. The big blow for Finland today was the withdrawal of winger Hamalainen, who I rate very highly and they’ll struggle to replace him. However, experienced striker Forssell is in attack and with such a good midfield behind him and no Miguel Veloso for Portugal to counter them, I think they’ll have their chances here. The Finns are a big bunch so they should have some joy from set pieces against Portugal too. Aside from that, you can expect this game to develop like most Portugal games; lots of the ball, very little done with it. There’s no Liedson for this game so their ability to convert chances is lessened and with only Nani and Danny in their team who can successfully take a man on and beat them, I just don’t see the attraction behind backing Portugal today. For me, these two sides should exploit each other’s weaknesses rather well so my call is for both sides to score in this game at generous odds of 23/20.
Portugal squad:
Goalkeepers – Eduardo, Rui Patricio, Ventura
Defenders – Alves, Nelson, Coentrao, Carvalho, Rolando, Pepe, Silvio, Pereira
Midfielders – Santos, Moutinho, Machado, Michael, Meireles, Martins, Nani
Attackers – Quaresma, Almeida, Danny, Varela, Postiga
Finland squad:
Goalkeepers – Hradecky, Fredrikson, Jaakkola
Defenders – Moisander, Raitala, Toivio, Pasanen, Heikkinen, Jalasto, Arkivuo
Midfielders – Sparv, Porokara, Vayrynen, Hetemaj, A.Eremenko, Riku Riski, R.Eremenko, Mannstrom, Sjolund
Attackers – Forssell, Sadik
Verdict: Both sides to score at 23/20.
Czech Republic U21 vs France U21 – both sides to score at 4/5.
Is it time that the Czechs finally lost their amazing unbeaten record? They’ve got a strong record at U21 level and furthered it by beating Belarus U21 2-0 last match but they are still without Kadlec, Lozak, Necid, Hlousek, and Moravek, who are all with the Czech Republic first-team for their game at home to Liechtenstein today. They still have Sparta Prague hotshot Pekhart and emerging defensive player Suchy in their team and those two alone tend to ensure that the Czechs either win or at least draw their games. However, they’re facing one of the finest U21 sides in Europe currently – France. France U21 beat Spain U21 3-2 last match in an epic game and yet again managed to baffle everyone by still producing good players at this level. Sissoko holds the midfield together whilst Real Sociedad’s attacking midfielder Griezmann does the damage so the French are usually a potent attacking force. Preparations for game versus Spain U21 were harmed following the withdrawals of Montpellier HSC defender Yanga-M’Biwa, AC Ajaccio midfielder Andre, and Stade Rennais striker Camara all being injured and that’s still the case today but France U21 does have some strength in-depth so they should be fine here, especially with options like Saivet, Riviere, and Cabella in attack. We should see a really good attacking game of football here and the away win does tempt me, to be honest. However, the Czechs have a formidable record for a reason so I’ll stay with both sides scoring in this game at 4/5.
France U21 squad:
Goalkeepers – Gorgelin, Delle
Defenders – Makonda, Corchia, Stambouli, Mangala, Varane, N’Diaye, Bayasse, M’Bengue
Midfielders – Pajot, Griezmann, Guilavogui, Sylla, Moulin, Martin, Pied, Sissoko
Attaackers – Saivet, Riviere, Gueye, Cabella, Privat
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Germany U21 vs Italy U21 – home win at 9/10.
Germany U21’s impressive win at Netherlands U21 at weekend leaves me in no doubt at all that taking Germany U21 to win this game today is a good choice.
Captain Holtby at Mainz 05 (on loan from Schalke 04) and Hoffenheim’s Rudy brings good experience in midfield. Gundogan at Nurnberg has had a good season. Rausch has been integral to Hannover 96’s success due to his consistently good displays in defence, as has Jung at Frankfurt although Frankfurt have had a pretty poor campaign, to be honest! Mlapa at Hoffenheim has played well alongside Bosnia-Herzegovina hitman Ibisevic and brings useful experience into this game for the hosts. This Germany U21 side is gradually getting better following a mass exodus of the likes of Khedira and Ozil to the first-team following their success in the UEFA European Championships in Sweden and I think we’ll see further examples of that improvement today.
Italy’s U21 side is decent but they have a big weakness in midfield with only Marrone at Siena and Crisetig at Internazionale – the rest play in Serie B. Don’t get me wrong – they have some talented players in there but they’re not at the level of Germany U21, in my view. Italy U21 tend to find it hard to score goals due to a lack of ability in midfield, which is a shame because Borini at Swansea City and Paloschi at Genoa can be dangerous on their respective days. As you’d expect from an Italian side, their defence is good with Biraghi and Faraoni at Internazionale and Camporese at Fiorentina usually holding it together. However, it’s going to take a strong display to keep their German hosts out today and I just don’t think that they’re capable of it based upon what I’ve seen of them in the not-too-distant past. Italy U21 can cause problems for their hosts if they score here but with little else going for them due to their inexperienced midfield, I think Germany U21 will win this one today.
Germany U21 squad:
Goalkeepers – Baumann, Giefer, Trapp
Defenders – Hornschuh, Jantschke, Jung, Kirchoff, Neumann, Ostrozolek, Rausch, Sobiech
Midfielders – Didavi, Gundogan, Hermann, Holtby, Rudy, Schindler, Vogt, Vukcevic
Attackers – Mlapa, Lasogga, Sukuta-Pasu
Italy U21 squad:
Goalkeepers – Bardi, Rossi, Pinsgolio
Defenders – Biraghi, Caldirola, Camporese, Crescenzi, Donati, Faraoni, Mori
Midfielders – Crisetig, D’Alessandro, Fabbrini, Marrone, Misuraca, Rizzo, Romizi, Soriano, Saponara
Attackers – Borini, Gabbiadini, Macheda, Paloschi
Verdict: Germany U21 to win at 9/10.
Austria U21 vs Norway U21 – home win at 5/6.
I’ve been a big fan of Austria’s U21 side for some time and this is yet another chance for them to demonstrate their ability. I was tempted to take them at 6/4 to win at Hungary U21 at weekend but I chickened out and of course they won 0-2 – typical. However, I’m going to take them to win at home today because Holzhauser of VfB Stuttgart is on fire at the moment and Aston Villa attacker Weimann isn’t far behind him either! Austria U21 have some very good players at their disposal and almost always score at home so I fancy them to do well here. Norway U21 welcome Rogne to their squad after his involvement during the Norway vs Denmark derby at weekend and they bring a decent side to this game, in all fairness, with Molde FK playmaker Wolff Eikrem, Borussia Moenchengladbach defender Nortveit, and Stromsgodset striker Keita all being good players at this level. However, Norway U21 tend to struggle away from home as they concede too many goals and that should prove be fatal against a good Austria U21 side. Both sides are goalscoring sides so over 2.5 goals should be a given here but for me, the value is on an Austria U21 victory as they’re simply a better side, in my humble opinion.
Norway U21 squad:
Ostbo, Cramer, Hedenstad, Nortveit, Wrangberg, Strandberg, Wolff Eikrem, Singh, Henriksen, Berget, Pedersen, Johansen, Semb Berge, Borven, Elabdellaoui, Konradsen, Keita, Nilsen, Nouri, Ringsted, Rogne.
Team news – Norway U21 have doubts over Semb, Nortveit, Johansen, and Keita.
Verdict: Austria U21 to win at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Netherlands, Spain, Cyprus U21, Wales U21, Nigeria, Germany, England, Mexico.
Recommended bets:
France, Netherlands, and Germany at 2/1.
England, Mexico, and Slovenia DNB at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA European Championship Qualifiers:
Czech Republic vs Liechtenstein (5) under 2.5 goals
Israel vs Georgia (6) under 2.5 goals
Sweden vs Moldova (4) 2-1
Turkey vs Austria (5) 2-1
Romania vs Luxembourg (6) under 2.5 goals
Netherlands vs Hungary (9) -1.5 handicap, over 2.5 goals
Estonia vs Serbia (6) 2-1
Lithuania vs Spain (8) 1-2
Belgium vs Azerbaijan (6) 2-1
Northern Ireland vs Slovenia (5) 0-1
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Cyprus vs San Marino (8) 2-0
Andorra vs Wales (8) 0-2
International Friendlies:
Nigeria vs Kenya (8) 2-0
Equatorial Guinea vs Gambia (5) 0-1
Gabon vs Cameroon (6) 1-1
Oman vs Tunisia (7) 0-0
Belarus vs Canada (7) 1-0
Qatar vs Russia (4) 0-1
Peru vs Ecuador (6) 0-0
Cyprus vs Bulgaria (6) 0-0
Greece vs Poland (5) 1-1
Slovakia vs Denmark (5) under 2.5 goals
Germany vs Australia (8) -1.5 handicap
Republic of Ireland vs Uruguay (6) 0-1
Ukraine vs Italy (6) 0-1
France vs Croatia (6) 1-0
England vs Ghana (8) both sides to score
Cuba vs Panama (5) 0-0
Portugal vs Finland (4) 1-1
USA vs Paraguay (5) 2-2
Costa Rica vs Argentina (7) 0-1
Mexico vs Venezuela (8) 2-0
International Friendlies – U21:
Czech Republic vs France (6) 1-1
Germany vs Italy (6) 2-1
Austria vs Norway (7) 1-0
Montenegro vs Republic of Macedonia (7) 1-1
English League One:
Rochdale vs Charlton Athletic (5)
Yeovil Town vs Carlisle United (6)
Exeter City vs Swindon Town (7)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Brighton & Hove Albion (6) both sides to score
Sheffield Wednesday vs Brentford (6)
English League Two:
Port Vale vs Lincoln City (5)
Rotherham United vs Shrewsbury Town (6) over 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Hougang United vs Balestier Khalsa (5) under 2.5 goals
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs El Tanque Sisley (7) 2-0
Welsh Premier League:
Llanelli vs The New Saints (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!