Latvia vs Greece
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Ok, the usual warning applies here, guys – it’s international day so bet with caution! Additionally, there are an awful lot of games that I like today so previews may be brief!
Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA European Championship Qualifier between Latvia and Greece.
I don’t have much faith in the Greece national side nowadays, to be honest. They’re rather bland and devoid of creativity. However, they’re the absolute masters and nullifying opponents by keeping the ball and being tactically astute. Let’s not beat around the bush – that’s why they won at Israel last week with their typical 0-1 approach and I expect more of the same today. They’ve got plenty of big guys there for set pieces, hence their usual success from them, and they’ve got the odd one or two capable of creating chances so I’ll take my chances with them here, even despite the rumours of Ninis’ absence.
Latvia are a pretty weak side nowadays, which is a shame because the emerging of Verpakovskis all those years ago looked like it would herald a new era for Latvian football. Instead, barring the odd great player, they’ve sank back into mediocrity. Gauracs never became what he was supposed to, Verpakovskis is getting old now, and Pereplotkins isn’t consistent enough in front of goal. Why on earth they’ve not given young Karasausks a chance yet I’ll never know – he’s got plenty of talent. Rudnevs is the star of their attack, however – he’s a quite excellent attacker, in my view. Happily, he was injured before the game with Georgia and has left the squad so he will not be playing in this game. Experienced goalkeeper Kolinko misses out too, which is a blow. The biggest blow for this game has to be the withdrawal of captain Gorkss, as he’s a regular centre-back and guess who’d be responsible for defending the Greek set pieces the most? Gorkss! It’s a big blow for the hosts, who were lucky to come away from Georgia with three points in their last game, and I’d be surprised to see them repeat that feat with two essential players missing.
For me, this should be a mind-numbingly boring game of football but the Greek win at 5/6 is very appealing here.
Team news – Latvia miss Rudnevs, Kolinko, and Gorkss
Verdict: Greece to win at 5/6.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Thailand vs Oman – home win with draw no bet at 11/10.
One thing that has gone unnoticed by most of the footballing world is the improvement that almost all of the south-east Asian sides have made over the past couple of years and Thailand are the best example of that, for me. They’ve improved physically and technically and would you believe that they’ve not lost a home game against Asian opposition since 2009? They’ve beaten Singapore, India, and Palestine along the way and I don’t rate Oman as being particularly good, especially not away from home. Oman are a good enough side on their own turf when it comes to stopping sides from playing but Thai football has improved a lot and I think that they can spring a surprise here. Oman are no mugs themselves, don’t get me wrong, but there’s only a handful of sides that I wouldn’t take this bet against today so Thailand with draw no bet cover at 11/10 is my choice here.
Verdict: Thailand to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Singapore vs Iraq – lay Iraq at 9/10.
This bet largely follows the same route as the above, although I have to admit that I don’t rate Singapore as highly as I do Thailand. Singapore’s success generally comes from them nationalising foreign players ala ancient striker Djuric but hey, whatever they do, it seems to work. Singapore are yet another difficult side to beat away from home and their 2-1 loss at China last week indicated how tough they’re becoming. Iraq have some gifted players but they’ve not played particularly well over the past couple of years from what I’ve seen; they really lack goals, to be honest. A 0-2 defeat against Jordan last week won’t have helped their morale, either. I can see a low-scoring game but laying the out-of-form and goal-shy visitors at 9/10 looks worth a punt here.
Verdict: Lay Iraq at 9/10.
Indonesia vs Bahrain – lay Bahrain at 9/10.
Haha and yet again, this tip follows the above ones! Indonesia have improved a lot over the past couple of years and at their giant stadium, which will no doubt be packed out, this side are a real force to play against. On their travels, Indonesia can buckle and did so at Iran last week. However, at home, Indonesia have won their last seven in a row and usually by scoring a lot of goals. Bahrain are a solid side that are hard to break down but away from home, you know they’d settle for a point. Again, I see value in laying the away side.
Verdict: Lay Bahrain at 9/10.
Uzbekistan vs Japan – away win at 9/10.
Ah, here we have one of only two sides in Asia that I will back away from home and that’s Japan. I rate Uzbekistan quite highly because their Shatskikh/Geyrinkh partnership up front is good and always dangerous but the fact is that their defence has weakened over time and they’re not the force they once were. They can still knock the ball around nicely enough and have plenty of pace on the flanks but Japan are still a class above Uzbekistan and it should show here, one way or another. I mean, if you go back in time then you can see Uzbekistan’s home record tends to reflect that they know when they’ve reached the ceiling of their ability, if that makes sense. They’ve hammered Singapore and Lebanon at home in the past, for example. However, they’ve hosted North Korea, Bahrain, Australia, and Japan since then and have failed to score in all four games despite haveing a strong attack. They’ve not conceded many in those games, admittedly, but they’ve still lost three of them and although I expect another tight game today, I still think that Japan have enough technical ability up front to edge this one.
Verdict: Japan to win at 9/10.
Azerbaijan vs Kazakhstan – both sides to score at evens.
These two sides are rivals and both only really have the scope to play against each other. I actually rate Kazakhstan as the ones that play better football out of the two nations but home advantage means a lot in this fixture and I wouldn’t bet against the Azeris with the Kazakhs missing a lot of first-teamers. However, these two sides do like to play good football, get forward, and score goals, and I’d be surprised to see anything other than that here. Kazakhstan won the reversal of this fixture 2-1 and four out of the last six meetings between these two sides has involved both sides scoring so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same again. Kazakhstan were a shade unlucky to lose thanks to a deflected last-minute free-kick at Turkey last week whereas Azerbaijan produced a coupon-busting 1-1 draw with Belgium. Kazakhstan have bagged in two out of their last three away games and Azerbaijan have bagged in two out of their last three home games. For me, there’s value on both sides scoring at evens.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Moldova vs Hungary – lay Hungary at 9/10.
Too many people are jumping on Hungary and I don’t get it. I like Hungary but let’s face it – Gera and Dzsudzsak run the team from an attacking perspective and both are absent. Ok, they worked hard against Sweden and navigated themselves to three points with a considerable amount of fortune but that’s when facing a side that attacks them. Will Moldova do that? I doubt it. Moldova are battlers and they do have a small amount of firepower themselves so I wouldn’t discredit them here entirely. Hungary are a decent enough side but they concede goals too easily (although they’ll be delighted to have star defender Juhasz back for this game) and don’t have good enough strikers in general. Hungary look too short here, for my liking, so laying them at 9/10 looks an interesting option here.
Verdict: Lay Hungary at 9/10.
Croatia vs Israel – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Rumours are rife in both camps of problems with Croatian fans suggesting that Bilic doesn’t run the team properly anymore and Israel fans bemoaning the lack of strikers in their squad. Croatia are still a force and should win this game but if they produce a display here as they did in Malta then they may struggle as Malta gave as good as they got in their loss against Croatia. Croatia have better players than Israel and really should win the game but at those odds? Not for me. Israel missing Sahar, Arbeitman, Barda, and Colautti in attack is just suicidal. Benayoun is still a class act in midfield but he’s got so little to work with here unless Melikson starts too. There’s not enough firepower in this side to score goals here although there’s enough ability to keep the ball, at least. I’m not touching the 1×2 market here but under 2.5 goals at 4/5 awakens my interest as both sides can keep the ball well but neither side are prolific right now.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Luxembourg vs Albania – home win with +1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
I actually quite like Albania but I can’t back them away from home – they’re just not good enough. On a poor pitch in Tirana, they can match most sides, especially with extraordinarily vocal fans supporting them. However, this is a decent pitch in Luxembourg and I don’t see them having it all their own way here, although I must confess that they are marginally the better side. Amusingly enough, this bet would have won or drawn in all of Albania’s away games since 2007, when they last visited Luxembourg and won 0-3. Luxembourg have improved a lot since then as France, Romania, Slovakia, and Belarus can all testify. Albania have failed to score in four out of their last six away games and with Luxembourg not shipping many nowadays, I think a surprise could be on the agenda today. The hosts have improved enough to avoid defeat here so giving them the +1 Asian Handicap appeals to me at 5/6 because even if Albania do win it, I’ll be amazed if it’s by more than one goal.
Verdict: Luxembourg to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Serbia vs Faroe Islands – both sides to score at 5/2.
This one should raise a few eyebrows!!
So, yeah – I really don’t rate the Serbians as highly as a lot of people do. I find them flat when it comes to creating chances, easy to score against when a bit of pace is against them, and I find them rather poor in front of goal. If I could give the Faroe Islands a +2.5 or +3.5 goal head start here then I would consider it but the bookies haven’t opened that market at the time I’m writing this preview and additionally to that, Faroe Islands miss their only good goalkeeper Mikkelsen through injury and that’s a huge blow. Nielsens is a good ‘keeper, to be fair, but he’s been injured for ages so I’m leaving him out of this equation. But yeah – the Serbs just don’t do it for me. This is the kind of nervous game that they’ll win by a narrow margin, in my view. The Faroes have massively improved over the past few years and with experienced Brian Kerr at the helm, they’ve been quite the side to beat. They lost 0-1 against Italy last match and rattled the Italian woodwork twice in the game so don’t rule them out from causing a surprise here. They’ve got pace in attack with Elttor, Samuelsen, and Holst in their ranks, not to mention Edmundsson. They’re not a prolific goalscoring side; far from it. However, they do create chances and against a fairly slow Serbian defence that is deprived of Vidic, I think the window of opportunity is there for the Faroes to score at least once here. I’m not going to remotely touch the 1×2 market because I think it’s pretty incorrect although Serbia should win it if they bother to show up. No Krasic limits their creativity here but either way, my call is both sides to score as it looks long at 5/2.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/2.
Belarus U21 vs Germany U21 – under 3 goals at 4/5.
Germany U21 have the better side here but 1/5 to win at Belarus U21? You have got to be kidding me! This Belarus U21 side established itself as one of the hardest sides in Europe to break through in the UEFA European U21 Championship in Denmark back in June and although they don’t bring a great attacking threat to the game, they do defend solidly and few sides score against them as a result. The Germans should probably win the game but I’ll be surprised if they destroy Belarus. For me, there’s value in under 3 goals here – I don’t expect the Germans to score more than twice, if at all. The 1×2 market is a big no bet here for me.
Verdict: Under 3 goals at 4/5.
Uniao de Leiria vs Porto – under 3 goals at 3/4.
This one might have slipped under the radar but it’s one I like a lot. Porto are better than Leiria; we all know that. However, Leiria are very stubborn at home and rather well-organised for a Portuguese side. They may not score but they make it their business to stop other sides scoring and generally speaking, they’re pretty damn good at it. I think Porto might find that as it’s early season – it’s hard to score a lot of goals unless your team is in full swing – and because of their absentees. I’m amazed the Portuguese FA has allowed this game to go ahead if you consider just who Porto have had on international duty that cannot play in this game. For instance, Hulk is with Brazil, Guarin is with Colombia, Otamendi is with Argentina etc. Porto sold Falcao to Atletico Madrid for big bucks and they’ve lost Hulk to international duty; where exactly are Porto’s goals coming from here? Belluschi can score from distance and James Rodriguez is a gifted playmaker but Porto’s attack is youthful and largely unproven. If Porto win the game – if – then I don’t see them bagging many because I don’t see where they’ll come from, barring a Leiria capitulation. Therefore, under 3 goals at 3/4 looks good enough to me today.
Verdict: Under 3 goals at 3/4.
Accumulator fodder:
North Korea, Netherlands, Republic of Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden, Spain, England, Argentina, Germany, Czech Republic U21, Netherlands U21, Belgium U21.
Recommended bets:
Greece, Netherlands, and Bosnia-Herzegovina at around 8/5.
Republic of Macedonia, Sweden -1.5, and Thailand DNB at around 7/5.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
World Cup Qualifiers – Asia:
North Korea vs Tajikistan (8) 2-0
Thailand vs Oman (6) 1-0
Singapore vs Iraq (5) 1-0
Indonesia vs Bahrain (6) 2-1
Lebanon vs United Arab Emirates (5) 1-2
Uzbekistan vs Japan (7) 0-1
Jordan vs China (7) 0-0
Qatar vs Iran (5) 2-1
Kuwait vs South Korea (6) 1-1
Saudi Arabia vs Australia (7) 0-0
UEFA European Championship Qualifiers:
Azerbaijan vs Kazakhstan (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Russia vs Republic of Ireland (6) 0-0
Finland vs Netherlands (8) over 2.5 goals
Moldova vs Hungary (6) 0-0
Republic of Macedonia vs Andorra (8) -1.5 handicap
Croatia vs Israel (6) 1-0
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Belarus (8) 2-0
Luxembourg vs Albania (5) 1-0
Slovakia vs Armenia (5) 1-2
Denmark vs Norway (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
San Marino vs Sweden (9) -1.5 handicap
Romania vs France (6) 0-1
Austria vs Turkey (4) 1-2
Serbia vs Faroe Islands (6) 2-1
Estonia vs Northern Ireland (7) 1-0
Malta vs Georgia (6) 0-1
Latvia vs Greece (7) 0-1
Switzerland vs Bulgaria (6) 1-0
Italy vs Slovenia (7) 2–0
England vs Wales (8) 2-0
Iceland vs Cyprus (6) 1-0
Scotland vs Lithuania (7) 1-0
Spain vs Liechtenstein (10) -1.5 handicap
International Friendlies:
Argentina vs Nigeria (8) 2-0 (played in Bangladesh)
Czech Republic vs Ukraine (7) 0-0
Belgium vs USA (6) 2-1
Poland vs Germany (8) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Ecuador vs Costa Rica (7) 1-0
Honduras vs Paraguay (6) 0-1
Venezuela vs Guinea (6) 1-0
Colombia vs Jamaica (7) 2-0 (played in USA)
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Northern Ireland vs Denmark (6) 0-1
Kazakhstan vs Slovakia (5) 0-0
Malta vs Finland (7) 0-1
Slovenia vs Ukraine (6) 1-2
Serbia vs Faroe Islands (7) 2-0
Czech Republic vs Armenia (8) 2-0
Hungary vs Italy (6) 1-2
Albania vs Moldova (6) 1-0
Romania vs Latvia (7) 2-0
Poland vs Russia (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Turkey vs Republic of Ireland (6) 2-1
Belarus vs Germany (6) 0-1
Iceland vs Norway (5) 2-1
Netherlands vs Luxembourg (10) -1.5 handicap
Belgium vs Azerbaijan (8) -1.5 handicap
Montenegro vs Wales (6) 1-1
International U21 Friendly:
Republic of Macedonia vs Cyprus (6) 1-0
Copa Sudamericana:
Estudiantes de la Plata vs Arsenal de Sarandi (5) 1-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Uniao de Leiria vs Porto (6) 0-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!