Uruguay vs Paraguay
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Copa America Final between Uruguay and Paraguay in Argentina. It’s not the mouth-watering tie that many expected but I expect an interesting game nonetheless.
I said pre-tournament that I fancied Uruguay to win it and I stand by it. They have the best attack in South America, in my opinion, with both Brazil and Argentina littered with individuals rather than collective talent. Uruguay function very well as a unit and as an attacking force; two factors that are quite rare in South American football. As usual, they’ve taken their time to get going properly but they showed signs last match that they’re ready to win the Copa America this time arond and what better place to do it than their bitter rivals’ back yard? They welcome back Perez after suspension to stiffen up their central midfield but still have doubts over Cavani, especially with SSC Napoli threatening to effectively sue the hell out of Uruguay if they play him and he aggravates his knee injury. Either way, Suarez is in outstanding form and Forlan is very experienced at such a high level so Uruguay definitely have goals in them, especially with so many excellent midfielders behind them.
Unlike most people, I quite like Paraguay. They don’t play football the atypical South American way; they’re very well-organised, especially at the back. This side does not concede many goals. You know, a lot of people have slandered Paraguay for not having won a game yet but does that not tell you how good their defence is? They’re strangely brilliant on penalty shootouts too, with Villar getting something of a reputation for keeping them out. Paraguay do have good strikers too, which means they are usually a very efficient unit. I mean, look at them – Cardozo, Santa Cruz, Haedo-Valdez! Cardozo isn’t in the squad, admittedly, but Santa Cruz is a gifted finisher and Haedo-Valdez is a real battler that some 4-4-2s thrive upon. Ironically, Paraguay’s weakness is a lack of creativity in midfield, which is beyond rare in South American teams. They’re very disciplined and hard to take apart but winning the midfield battle with Paraguay doesn’t take much, to be honest. Give them a chance and they’ll probably score it but let them play and they’ll generally do very little. It speaks volumes that their most famous midfielder of all time is Roberto “El Toro” Acuna – or “the bull”, in English. I guess you can work out that he wasn’t a playmaker!
Unders looks intriguing with the above in mind but the odds don’t interest me. Considering the two styles of the two sides and the repeated rumours that Paraguay are missing a few players tonight – which hasn’t been confirmed yet – I do fancy Uruguay to win this one in open play. I just expect them to break through at somepoint and win the game. Additionally, Paraguay boss Gerardo Martino has a touchline ban for this game following his involvement in the fracas after the Venezuela game so Paraguay will have to keep their shape well ’cause their manager isn’t on the sidelines to whip them into shape if required. Given that one of their regular midfielders Santana is missing and how much Paraguay rely on functioning as a unit, I think Uruguay are a good value bet here, especially as Paraguay had to play extra time to get here whereas Uruguay did it in ninety minutes.
Team news – Uruguay have doubts over Cavani whereas Paraguay miss Santana.
Verdict: Uruguay to win at evens.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Fluminense vs Palmeiras – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Boring Fluminense have signed Martinuccio and Rafael Sobis to breathe life into their attack and although it might work, I doubt we’ll see that happen tonight. Sobis is good when he gets going but he’s so hot and cold that it’s hard to anticipate which Sobis will show up. I wonder if Sobis will ever be bought by a club that Abel Braga is not in charge of?! Anyway, Martinuccio is a good player but is he what Fluminense needs? I don’t know. Fluminense have Fred back in attack tonight, which will help, but their reliance is still on Deco following Conca’s departure and I don’t see that producing much for them tonight. Fluminense just look like a bunch of individuals instead of a team without Muricy at the helm. They do have talent and they’re a pain to score against sometimes but they’re not a great team and I don’t expect much from them as a result.
A rule of thumb I always follow in Brazil is to never back Palmeiras away from home; they’re just terrible away from home for no reason that I’ve ever managed to work out. Scolari has done a good job there though – he’s got them playing good football again, especially at home. He happily has Chilean playmaker Valdivia at his disposal tonight to further improve the Palmeiras attack but Palmeiras tend to go all weird and defensive on the road so I’m not sure he’ll be able to do much if he does play. Palmeiras are the better of these two sides, in my view, but I doubt they’ll get chance to showcase that if they play the way I expect them to.
For me, this game is going under 2.5 goals. Fluminense don’t score goals because they’re predictable when creating chances and don’t play as a unit. Palmeiras don’t score goals on the road because they don’t attack enough. Both sides are fairly competent at the back for Serie A sides and I think we’ll see less than 2.5 goals as a result, although the 1×2 market is a big “no bet” for me.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Ferencvaros vs Diosgyori VTK – Diosgyori VTK to win with a +1 Asian Handicap 4/5.
Ferencvaros look very short here and I’m not sure they’ll deliver the goods!
Considering that the giants of Hungarian football have only just got back from a tough tie with Aalesund on an artificial pitch in Norway, I don’t think they’ll be at their best today, especially given how they capitulated at the end of the game and subsequently crashed out of the UEFA Europa League. Ferencvaros are a good home side, admittedly, and Prukner is doing a very good job there. He ditched Heinz and Schembri, two instrumental players last season, and brought in old playmaker Lisztes to add a bit of experience to their midfield and help out in the role that Schembri previously undertook. They signed giant Brazilian striker Felipe Felix to replace Heinz – very different players but Felix has more of what a striker needs than Heinz, who focused more on the playmaking side of being a striker – and look better for it as they have more options up front playing this way. The bad news is that new Serbian winger Jovanovic has damaged his ankle ligaments and will be out for a couple of months and captain Rosa broke his knee, which robs Ferencvaros of two important players and leaves them susceptible on the flanks, which is even more dangerous if you consider that there’s no Tutoric in the middle at the back anymore to mop up the mess when Ferencvaros inevitably get caught on the counter-attack. So yeah – I really don’t fancy Ferencvaros today, good as they can be.
Diosgyori VTK have only just been promoted but there’s a lot of history behind them. They were relegated to the division below a couple of seasons ago and were in a terrible state, barely even having a starting eleven by the start of last season. However, they had some heavy investment from Leisztinger and they subsequently made some impressive signings and got promoted. Indeed, some of those signings are familiar names i.e. ex-Sevilla CF winger Gallardo, French striker Seydi, experienced Jose Luque at the back, Carreno up front. There’s a big Spanish contingent in this side and they play good football too, something they demonstrated very well in their 4-1 drubbing of Zalaegerszegi TE in their opening game of the season. They could be well placed to cause an upset here, in my view!
Lastly, this is an absolutely huge game for the visitors. They have the most fanatical fans in Hungary and are facing the most successful club in Hungarian history so you can see how this game could erupt. This game means everything to the visitors and I think taking them to not lose this game with a +1 Asian Handicap insurance at 4/5 is worth a flutter today.
Verdict: Diosgyori VTK to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Liepajas Metalurgs, Daugava Daugavpils, Sheriff Tiraspol, Dacia Chisinau, Basel, Shakhtar Donetsk, Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk.
Recommended bets:
Uruguay, Sheriff Tiraspol, and Daugava Daugavpils at short of 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa America:
Uruguay vs Paraguay (6) 1-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wacker Innsbruck vs Salzburg (5) 2-1
Austria Vienna vs SV Ried (6) 2-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Dnepr Mogilev vs Dinamo Brest (5) 1-1
Neman Grodno vs Dinamo Minsk (6) 1-2
Brazilian Serie A:
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro (5) 1-1
Fluminense vs Palmeiras (6) 0-0
Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama (5) 2-1
Bahia vs Coritiba (5) 2-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Cibalia Vinkovci vs Split (5) 1-0
Varteks Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb (6) 1-0
Danish Superligaen:
Nordsjaelland vs AC Horsens (4) 1-1
Lyngby vs SonderjyskE (6) 1-0
Aalborg BK vs AGF Aarhus (5) 1-1
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Levadia Tallinn vs Trans Narva (7) 1-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
IFK Mariehamn vs KuPS Kuopio (6) 1-0
FC Honka Espoo vs Haka Valkeakoski (7) 2-0
JJK Jyvaskyla vs TPS Turku (7) 2-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
FC Espoo vs OPS Oulu (7)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Fehervar vs Paksi SE (7) 2-0
Ferencvaros vs Diosgyori VTK (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Kecskemeti TE vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (6) 2-1
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Thor Akureyi vs Vikingur Reykjavik (6) 1-0
Fram Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (6) 1-1
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Keflavik (6) 2-1
UMF Grindavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik (5) 0-1
KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik Kopavogur (7) 2-0
Japanese J-League:
Avispa Fukuoka vs Montedio Yamagata (5) 1-0
Latvian Virsliga:
Daugava Daugavpils vs RFS/Olimps Riga (8) 2-0
Liepajas Metalurgs vs FC Jurmala (8) 2-1
FK Jurmala vs Jelgava (6) 2-1
Gulbene 2005 vs Skonto Riga (7) 1-2
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Siauliai vs Suduva Marijampole (7) 0-1
Macedonian Super Cup:
Skendija ’79 vs Metalurg Skopje (5) 1-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Pumas UNAM vs San Luis (7) 2-0
Tijuana vs Morelia (5) 1-2
America vs Queretaro (7) 2-0
Moldovan Divizia Nationala:
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Rapid Chisinau (8) 2-0
Dacia Chisinau vs Nistru Otaci (8) 2-0
Norwegian Eliteserien: (may be postponed for obvious reasons)
Rosenborg BK vs Fredrikstad (7) 2-1
Aalesund FK vs Stabaek (6) 2-1
Haugesund vs Sogndal (6) 1-0
Lillestrom vs Tromso (5) 2-1
Sarpsborg 08 vs Stromsgodset (4) 1-2
Brann Bergen vs Viking Stavanger (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Polish Liga 1:
Kolejarz Stroze vs Olimpia Grudziadz (6)
Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice (5)
Romanian Liga:
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (6) 1-1
CFR Cluj vs Astra Ploiesti (7) 1-0
Russian Premier League:
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow (5) 1-2
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Amkar Perm (6) 1-0
Spartak Nal’chik vs FK Krasnodar (6) 0-0
Rostov-na-Donu vs Dinamo Moscow (6) 1-1
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Zenit St.Petersburg (5) 0-0
Scottish Premier League:
Hibernian vs Celtic (7) 1-2
Dundee United vs Kilmarnock (6) 1-0
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (6) 1-1
Kosice vs Spartak Trnava (4) 1-0
Tatran Presov vs MSK Zilina (6) 1-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Domzale vs Celje (5) 2-1
Koper vs Olimpija Ljubljana (7) 1-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
AIK Solna vs Kalmar FF (6) 1-0
BK Hacken Goteborg vs GAIS Goteborg (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Orebro vs IFK Norrkoping (5) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Angelholm vs Brage (6)
Falkenberg vs Ljungskile (5)
Swiss Super League:
Basel vs Neuchatel Xamax (8) 2-0
Thun vs Grasshopper Zurich (6) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
St.Gallen vs Vaduz (5)
Ukrainian Premier League:
Vorskla Poltava vs Metalurg Donetsk (5) 1-0
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty Lviv’ (8) 2-1
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Volyn Lutsk (8) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!