Uruguay vs South Korea
FreeToday’s featured game is the first game of the World Cup second round between Uruguay and South Korea. Both sides have impressed me in this tournament so I’m hoping to see a good game between two able sides today.
I mentioned pre-World Cup that I thought Uruguay could do well. However, my hat goes off to them – they’ve surpassed what I envisioned them as being capable of. It’s quite strange, really – I’d argue the case that they’ve not played as well as they are now in the whole of their World Cup Qualifying campaign. They’ve got a good manager in Tabarez, one of few South Americans seemingly accustomed to being able to organise his side defensively, hence Uruguay being yet to concede in the World Cup as of yet. They’ve got a good blend of experience, composure, pace, creativity, and finesse, and it’s shown in their games so far. They were criticised by some people for their display against France in their opening game but I’d ask how many other sides could have nullified what was an impressive French side (on that night at least!) and I’d be surprised if any could be named. They comfortably overcame the enthusiastic and well-supported hosts in a convincing 3-0 victory which saw South Africa barely reach the Uruguayan 18-yard box. They then restricted a dangerous Mexico side and exploited their weaknesses, eventually winning the game 1-0 without needing to get out of first gear. In that game, incidentally, Mexico failed to score – the first time that’s happened in ten consecutive games – a run which includes fixtures with Italy, Netherlands, and England, so don’t underestimate the Uruguayans here. Not many South American sides can boast a solid defence but Uruguay can and I quite like this “secret weapon” of this because it’s not one you’d associate with the flambuoyant hispanic nations, atypically.
Star men? You have to pick Forlan above the others. He’s the biggest name in the team but unlike most big names at the tournament thus far, he’s earned his reputation of being one of the best. He’s got bags of experience and ability, not to mention flexibility, and just his mere presence on the field is a massive boost for the Uruguayans. He lends composure to the side, directs the more inexperienced Suarez, makes intelligent runs, incisive passes, and has even adapted himself to playing as a playmaker behind the front man/men, which was surprising and impressive. Only a very good player can accomodate for losing some of their pace by bolstering other parts of their game but Forlan has done that so he’s easily Uruguay’s most important asset in the World Cup and will be instrumental if they progress through this competition. Suarez is beginning to come into his own as he showed by scoring against Mexico and lynchpin Lugano is finally looked composed and organised in defence so Uruguay are starting to broaden their confidence and overall maturity. The one who has impressed me an awful lot in this side, however, is Jorge Fucile at full-back. He can play on the left or the right but is always measured in both attack and defence. He’s quick, a good tackler of the ball, and makes few mistakes – wouldn’t be surprised to see him move after the World Cup.
South Korea are another side that have done well in this tournament. I said I thought they’d make the second round in my pre-World Cup preview and they have, although a tad more fortuitously than I’d imagined them to be, requiring impotent Nigerian strikers in their last game to claim a 2-2 draw. Generally, South Korea have been strong both tatctically and clinically. I like their vast array of experience and the number of players that they have to beat a man, not to mention their pace! However, they do have two weaknesses and that is their defence in their air and their goalkeeper, which are not only two dangerous areas to have problems, but one massive area to have back-to-back problems! They’ve looked susceptible in the air in all three of their games in the World Cup so far and their goalkeeper has been caught out numerous times, most notably against Argentina. I like the South Koreans, to be blunt, but I can see their road ending here against a well-organised and incisive Uruguayan side.
Bolton Wanderers winger Lee Chung Yong has been excellent for South Korea so far with mazy dribbling and constant hounding of the full-backs – he reminds me of a younger Park Ji-Sung! You can see that Lee learns a lot from Park in his style, as well as on the field of play, and it will only assist his ascension as a footballer. Lee Young Pyo has had a good campaign and causes problems with persistent runs down the left and the relentless energy of Chu Young Park in attack is a constant threat, as well as his ability from set pieces. All in all, the South Koreans have a lot of ability in their side, particularly in attack, so I expect to see a good showing from them today, although I do expect them to ultimately lose the game.
Problem areas? As I mentioned already – South Korea are weak in the air at the back and their goalkeeper is a bit short – he finds it hard to reach the wider areas of the goal and Uruguay manager Oscar Tabarez is wily enough to have picked up on this. South Korea are also particularly vulnerable at right-back, where converted striker Cha Du Ri plays, so expect Uruguay to trundle down their left more often than not. South Korea’s problem areas suit Uruguay worryingly well as Uruguay’s weakness is a lack of dominance in the centre of midfield – everywhere else is very good indeed. I think we’ll see a lot of play down the flanks from Uruguay if they have their way and through the middle if South Korea have their way so we should see a very interesting game, although I do favour the Uruguayans here.
By my reckoning, Uruguay shouldn’t be longer than 8/15 for this game because they’re such an accomplished and able side whereas South Korea have looked vulnerable when attacked correctly so I’m surprised that the bookies have been so generous here. South Korea also have a tendency to tire rather a lot in the last thirty minutes of their games, much moreso than most other sides that I’ve seen in this tournament, which again could be detrimental to their overall display.
With the above in mind, my favourite bet is the straightforward win for Uruguay at 17/20, which I feel are decent odds.
Other bets that interest me in light of the above information:
Uruguay to lead at half-time and full-time at 11/5.
South Korea not to score at evens.
Forlan to score anytime at 13/10.
Uruguay to score more in the second-half than the first at 31/20.
First goal to be scored from a header at 15/4.
Added time in the second-half to be 2 minutes at 7/2 (neither side foul excessively)
Uruguay to win to nil at 33/20.
Verdict: Uruguay to win at 17/20.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
USA vs Ghana – USA to win at 29/20.
Despite USA winning the group, people are still doubting them and treating them as an inferior side. I really cannot fathom why that is! Don’t get me wrong – I don’t view them as World Cup winners but I certainly don’t view them as the weak side that they used to be some ten to fifteen years ago. USA now boast a lot of good players, players that have played in some of the best competitions in the world. They’ve got good experience, great pace, and enough creativity to cause problems. Alright, they were fortunate to equalise against England in their opening group game but their tenacity earned them a point in the game. They were weak defensively against Slovenia but still came from two goals down due to great spirit and belief and should have even won the game, had it not been for an official ruling out a clearly onside goal. In their final game, their spirit and belief showed through right until the end where a late goal against Algeria saw them win the game. USA utterly dominated the game and were bafflingly unlucky to win by a solitary goal as Algeria were torn apart. The only real criticism I have of USA is that they don’t take their chances often enough but the rest of their side is good, barring the odd defensive lapse. Only a fool will underestimate this side, particularly whilst such a strong spirit is in their team.
Ghana now bear the banner for all of Africa, as the other African nations are out. I’ve yet to work out as to whether this is a good or bad thing, really. The additional pressure could cripple an already under-pressure side and I’m not entirely sure if all of Africa will get behind them – that certainly wouldn’t be the case for Scottish people en mass if England progressed, for instance! That factor is a little unknown thus far but do bear it in mind before betting on the game. However, on the quality front, Ghana are capable of giving USA a good game, hence the tentative odds that the bookies have placed on this game. Ghana have some good individuals and caused a lot of problems against Germany last match with driving runs and tenacity, two predominant features of the Ghanaians. However, although Ghana aren’t easy to break down, they make life very easy for their opponents by not taking their chances. Every African side in this tournament is guilty of not taking their chances and Ghana are no exception with both of their goals so far coming from the penalty spot. With that in mind, Ghana haven’t convinced me that they’re ready to take on a side like USA so they’ll need all the luck they can muster to progress from this game.
I can’t rule out the possibility of a stalemate here with both sides struggling to score goals more than anything else but I’d be lying if I said that I saw anything other than a USA win here. They’re simply a better side overall and look far more threatening than Ghana do. USA have been dying to make a name for themselves in one of the few sports that they’ve never been widely acclaimed for being good at and what an opportunity they have here with most of the big footballing nations drawn in the other half of the World Cup fixtures, thus giving USA an easier run. Also bear in mind the momentum and belief that USA bring into this game following their dramatic win against Algeria, whereas Ghana made it here because Serbia failed to overcome Australia – two very different backgrounds here!
With the above in mind, I like the look of the USA win at 29/20. A few other bets interest me too, which are listed below:
Ghana to receive 2.5 or more yellow cards at 27/20 – their combative players may become frustrated with USA if and when they take the lead and the likes of Muntari and Annan are not known for their composure!
Under 2.5 goals at 11/20 – not great odds but very likely outcome
Verdict: USA to win at 29/20.
Vikingur Gotu vs B68 Torshavn – Vikingur Gotu to win at 3/5.
3/5 isn’t what I call “good odds” but it is for this selection!
Vikingur Gotu haven’t had a good season in the Meistaradeildin thus far as just one win in six home games indicates all too clearly. However, don’t make the mistake of underestimating them, as the bookies have done – they still remain one of the better sides in the Faroe Islands. I’ll be the first to admit that their home record should be better but the fact remains that the only poor side that they’ve not beaten at home is B71 Torshavn, with their sole victory coming against relegation-threatened AB Argir, and their other four games being played against the likes of HB Torshavn and EB/Streymur i.e. very tough games. Vikingur Gotu scored two goals in their last home game against high-flying NSI Runavik and were unfortunate to lose 3-2. Despite what looks like a poor run of form, Vikingur Gotu also bring some decent momentum into the game following an impressive 2-2 draw at giants EB/Streymur last match despite trailing 2-0 until deep in the second-half. They’ve now scored four goals in two games – it’s hardly a poor record, although their defence does need sorting out sooner rather than later.
Visitors B68 Torshavn are an average side at best but they boast the strangest Meistaradeildin record of the season thus far with six defeats from six away games. I’d understand if that record belonged to AB Argir or Suduroy but no – it belongs to B68, surprisingly enough! They concede an average of three goals per away game, which naturally doesn’t help, and only just average scoring over a goal per away game. It’s not solely the record itself that convinces me that B68 will struggle today but also the mentality it brings whereby the players begin to expect defeat on the road because it’s happened so often. They’ve played a couple of tough away games but the majority have been against weak opponents like B36 Torshavn, Suduroy, and B71 Sandur – unacceptable results, really. B68’s record doesn’t reflect their overall ability, I admit, but it’s one that can certainly be taken advantage of here and a potent Vikingur Gotu really should capitalise on it today.
For me, these odds should be about 1/2 because Vikingur are a lot better than their opponents, irrespective of what the Meistaradeildin table shows. Although the level of value isn’t spectacular, it is still value nonetheless, in my opinion, so the home win here should make decent accumulator fodder, particularly with the excellent midfield of Vikingur Gotu – emerging talent Finnur Justinussen, box-to-box Solvi Vatnhamar and experienced winger Suni Olsen – all scoring goals for fun so far this season.
Verdict: Vikingur Gotu to win at 3/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Liepajas Metalurgs, Vikingur Gotu.
Recommended bets:
Uruguay, Vikingur Gotu, and Liepajas Metalurgs at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
World Cup:
Uruguay vs South Korea (8) 2-0
USA vs Ghana (7) 1-0
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Universidad Catolica vs Deportivo Cuenca (7) 0-0
Olmedo Riobamba vs Manta (5) 1-0
El Nacional Quito vs Deportivo Quito (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
Suduroy vs B71 Sandur (6) 1-1
Vikingur Gotu vs B68 Torshavn (7) 2-0
Irish Premier League:
Sligo Rovers vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (5) 1-1
Latvian Virsliga:
Blazma Rezekne vs Liepajas Metalurgs (8) 1-2
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Siauliai vs Tauras Taurage (6) 2-1
Russian Division 1:
Mordovia Saransk vs Kuban Krasnodar (6)
FK Nizhnyi Novgorod vs FK Khimki (6)
Dinamo Bryansk vs Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast (7)
Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan vs Luch-Energiya Vladivostok (6)
Rotor Volgograd vs Energiya Khabarovsk (4)
Shinnik Yaroslavl’ vs Irtysh Omsk (7)
Zhemchuzhina Sochi vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod (4)
FK Krasnodar vs KamAZ Nab Chelny (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Balestier Khalsa (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!