USA vs Brazil/South Africa vs Spain
FreeToday is the final day of the Confederations Cup. Both of the remaining games are played today, which are the third place play-off between hosts South Africa and pre-tournament favourites Spain and the final itself between new favourites Brazil and surprise package USA.
South Africa vs Spain – this game is interesting on various levels, really. Pre-tournament favourites Spain endured a disappointing 2-0 defeat in the semi-finals to USA, which in turn ended their 35 game unbeaten run. I’m intrigued to see just what that’s done to Spain, if anything. Also, if anything does occur in the Spanish minds, will it aid them or hurt them more to know that they dominated the game against USA and only poor finishing and poor defending robbed them of a place in the final? Will David Villa rediscover his lethal touch instead of paying attention to the speculation surrounding his future? Can Fernando Torres remember where the goal is? Will Del Bosque finally give up on a frankly inadequate Cesc Fabregas, who was made to look amateur last match by Xabi Alonso and Xavi? Questions, questions.
To even the most idiotic of people, however, there’s only one outcome here – a Spain victory. It doesn’t matter how well South Africa played last match or the fact that they’re at home – they’re simply not good enough to win the game, primarily because they can’t score goals against good sides. They play well when bringing the ball forwards but in the final third they’re virtually non-existent. Even if Spain play as poorly (by their standards) as they did last game, I think they’d win this game because South Africa frankly aren’t as good as USA are. I can’t see Spain not scoring for two successive games and I can’t see South Africa scoring period so we have a stone cold away win here. The bookies aren’t daft though, as usual, giving us meager odds of 4/7 on this occurring so as ever, it’s my job to sift through their listings and pick out some gems. The first one that I think is a bargain is to give Spain a -1.5 goal handicap at 13/8. Spain are a natuarlly good goalscoring nation and I’d be surprised if they didn’t score two goals here now the pressure is off. The only other bet that jumps out at me is Spain to win to nil at 6/4. Now those odds really do surprise me given that South Africa haven’t scored a goal in this tournament against a big side despite two attempts now. I think it’s fair to say that taking a slice of those odds looks very inviting!
USA vs Brazil – definitely not the final everyone expected, including myself. Never has a previous meeting meant so little, though. Brazil beat USA 3-0 in the group stages of this tournament and at that point, any bookmaker would have surely given you odds of 1000/1 (note: exaggerated!) on this being the final game of the tournament, but here we are. Ironically, since that time, USA have got better and Brazil have got worse. In fact, I’d go as far as to say that if USA had played Brazil instead of South Africa in the semi-finals then Brazil wouldn’t be playing in the final today. A bold statement, I know, but Brazil have been feeble and fortunate lately whereas USA have been tough, tenacious and worthy finalists overall due to those features. We all know Brazil are the better team, but that’s with the proviso that they turn up and to be honest, I don’t think they will. USA will really do their homework here and have the ability to cause Brazil problems because as anyone who has watched Brazil play will know, they struggle defending crosses. USA have players like Altidore who can more than capitalise on this. Brazil need big performances from big players to win this game and I’m not going to lie to you – this could happen. However, I expect a gritty game with few chances, a lot of sweat and probably a few cards. For that reason, I like the look of under 2.5 goals at 5/6. However, I can’t really see any other bets for this game that I like the look of – handicaps on Brazil are far too risky given their abysmal display against lowly South Africa last match and handicaps to boost USA could easily become unstuck so I’ll stick to the one bet for this game.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
There’s an awful lot of value today so I’m looking forward to some good wins today! Below are my favourites from today’s games:
USA vs Brazil – under 2.5 goals at 6/5 – see introduction for full details.
South Africa vs Spain – Spain to win to nil at 6/4, Spain to win with -1.5 goals at 13/8 – see introduction for full details.
Naftan Novopolotsk vs FC Vitebsk – home win at 10/11. I have to be blunt here; both of these sides are appalling at the moment. Between them, they can both only boast two wins from ten games, the rest resulting in defeats for each side respectively. However, what tips the scales for me is Naftan Novopolotsk’s impressive home form with three wins from four games, a record which was only broken by reigning champions BATE Borisov. FC Vitebsk have claimed four points from a possible twelve away from home this campaign, which certainly adds wood to the fire. At 10/11, this could prove to be a steal but I’d advise you to keep punts low because both sides are currently enduring poor form.
Torpedo Zhodino vs Dinamo Minsk – home win at 2/1. This is arguably my riskiest bet of the day. Dinamo Minsk are possibly the second best side in the country but their form is pretty inconclusive in general. Their away form is a prime example of my point – four games, three draws and one defeat. Torpedo Zhodino, on the other hand, have won all of their home games this season. Don’t let that fact mislead you however – for some inane reason, they’ve only played one home game this season! Torpedo Zhodino aren’t near Dinamo Minsk in terms of quality but they are certainly flying high this season and the visitors can’t seem to get a decent away result so a home win here looks like a distinct possibility and at 2/1, it’s got to be worth a flutter!
Sport Recife vs Gremio – home win at evens. I’m slightly dubious about this game but determined to give it a shot nonetheless. Gremio enter the game on the back of a demoralising 3-1 first leg defeat in the Copa Libertadores mid-week against Cruzeiro and are now looking to get their league campaign back on track. However, the Copa Libertadores will remain their priority ahead of this trip so players will be rested. The controversy surrounding Douglas da Costa’s potential move to Europe seems to be affecting the team, as they’ve now not won in four games consecutively in all competitions. Their away form is two defeats and one draw from three games and they travel to a Sport Recife side desperate for points under their new manager on their horrible rocky ground. I think this trip might be too much for a disjointed Gremio and a home win at evens looks sorely tempting.
Palmeiras vs Santos – away win & draw at 4/5. This is definitely a dodgy one but possibly very worthwhile! The bizarre circumstances that lead to my bet on this game basically hinge upon Palmeiras’ decision to sack their manager. Why? Well, he talked about star striker Keirrison possibly leaving the club for Barcelona. That was his crime. Shocking, I know! As a result, Keirrison has allegedly decided he’s not playing in this game and the team are in uproar. Santos are not playing well currently despite a promising start to the season but certainly have the quality to spring a surprise here against a side in true disarray. Taking Santos to win/draw this game at 4/5 looks extremely interesting!
Tecnico Unviersitario Ambato vs Macara Ambato – home win at 7/4. Derby day in Ambato sees high-flying Macara Ambato travel to struggling Tecnico Universitario Ambato. The visitors are in top form with five wins and a draw from their past six games. However, they travel to rivals Tecnico Universitario Ambato knowing that they’ve not won or even scored here in the last two meetings between these two sides. The hosts don’t have a great home record with just three wins from nine games but they’ll be up for this game and confident given the head-to-head statistics between these two sides and could spring a shock here.
Olmedo Riobamba vs Deportivo Quito – home win at 10/11. Deportivo Quito have been struggling for some time with financial issues and it’s clearly affected their league performance this campaign with the reigning champions finding themselves in 7th place currently. Today, the troubled club travel to Olmedo Riobamba to try and take three points from a side that have won three times and drawn once in their last four games. The hosts are looking inspired at this late point of the season and the visitors are looking a little sorry for themselves – a home win could well be on the cards here.
RoPS Rovaniemi vs Honka Espoo – away win with -1.5 goals handicap at 13/8. Honka Espoo are beginning to discover the lethal touch that saw them clinch runners-up spot in the Veikkausliiga last season. Unfortunately for RoPS Rovaniemi, this has occurred just when the relegation battlers host the potential title winners. RoPS Rovaniemi are beginning to show clear relegation form with four defeats from their past five games and have conceded an average of 2 goals per game. Honka Espoo by contrast enter the game with three wins from five games, averaging a goalscoring average of three goals per game. All of this spells out a good day for a handicap bet and with -1.5 goals at 13/8, this could be one of the bets of the day.
Viikingit Helsinki vs Jippo Joensuu – home win at 4/5. Viikingit Helsinki are in great form with four wins from their past four games and are now finally beginning to show the kind of form that saw them finish 2nd in the Ykkonen last season. Today they host Jippo Joensuu, a side also considered a contender for promotion this season. However, the visitors have found themselves with just two wins in five games, surprisingly losing last match at home to low-scoring KooTeePee Kotka. This defeat won’t have done them any good (physically or mentally) entering this game and I think a home win at 4/5 is certainly worth a flutter.
Yokohama F Marinos vs Gamba Osaka – home win at 6/4. Gamba Osaka are in horrendous form currently with no wins from their past three games now. They travel to Yokohama F Marinos, who proudly boast a home record of four wins from seven games and also enter this game on the back of a victory. I can’t see the visitors’ torrid form ending today as they’ve lost to worse sides than Yokohama F Marinos lately and will almost certainly have an eye on their Asian Champions League clash with Kawasaki Frontale next week so 6/4 could be a real bargain here.
Tranzits Ventspils vs Jurmala – away win at 5/6. It’s not often the Virsliga gives us good odds to work with but finally there are some! Mid-table Jurmala journey to relegation battlers Tranzits Ventspils with a relatively impressive away record of three wins from seven games. The hosts have a dismal home record as they’re still seeking their first home win of the season after seven attempts (five draws and two defeats). They’ve lost four games from their past five now and Jurmala enter the game on the back of two straight wins so there’s only one result on the cards today for me.
Banga Gargzdai vs Tauras Taurage – home win at 4/5. Entering the game on the back of two straight wins, Banga Gargzdai look to make it three wins from three games as they entertain lowly Tauras Taurage. The visitors have only managed one victory in their last four games and have lost four out of six away games this season. Banga Gargzdai have a decent home record with three wins from six games and only two defeats in that time. For those reasons, a home win looks favourable here.
Valerenga Oslo vs Rosenborg – home win with draw no bet at 5/4. I’m a big advocate of Rosenborg, arguably Scandinavia’s biggest club, but I think today is the day they are beaten for the first time in the league. They travel to a Valerenga side that are truly in the ascendency with four wins from their past five games. Their home form doesn’t look convincing given their meager start to the season but they’ll be more than up for this game, particularly as Rosenborg will have half an eye on next week’s clash with Faroese outfit NSI Runavik in the UEFA Europa League Qualifiers. However, Rosenborg do boast a phenomenal away record this season with five wins and two draws from seven games so I must emphasise taking the home win with draw no bet at 5/4.
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord – home win at 6/5. Both of these sides are pretty damn poor at the moment and all that’s giving me belief in a home win is that Stromsgodset are simply better than Sandefjord. The hosts may be in a poor league position but they certainly know how to win at home with four wins from eight games, a record bettered only by Rosenborg and Odd Grenland Skien currently. The visitors have lost four from seven away trips this season and despite a promising start they’re now looking despairingly up the table at everyone passing them as they slide towards the drop-zone. Stromsgodset’s biggest problem is conceding goals so it’s usually a plan to take them at over 2.5 goals in most games they play because they’re not afraid to score goals either. On a final note, they have claimed some big scalps here this season, most notably Brann Bergen a couple of weeks ago so 6/5 is a good price for this outcome.
Haugesund vs Sogndal – home win at 5/4. This could well be the best bet of the day with the proviso it comes in, of course! Both of these sides are absolutely flying in the Adeccoligaen and there’s frankly not much between them in terms of quality. However, Haugesund boast an impressive 100% win record at home this season with five wins from five and averaging approximately 2.5 goals per game. Sogndal have an interesting away record, however, having only scored five goals and conceded three on their travels all season. They’ve only lost once on the road but I think that amount can be doubled today if Haugesund turn up and odds of 5/4 for them to do so look very tempting.
Skeid Oslo vs Nybergsund – away win at evens. Skeid Oslo are quite possibly the worst side in the Adeccoligaen and there’s no particularly secret reason why I’d back Nybergsund to win this other than they’re playing quite well and Skeid Oslo are abysmal. Their away record is actually pretty good too with three wins from six away games and with Skeid Oslo having only claimed three points at home this season from a potential fifteen, an away win at evens looks really rather predictable but profitable!
Sarpsborg vs Kongsvinger – home win at 13/8. This is definitely one of the more risky bets today because Kongsvinger are better than Sarpsborg, no questions asked. However, having lost their last three away games (in all competitions) consecutively, you have to wonder if the promotion candidates have what it takes to get something here today. Their biggest weakness away from home is conceding, having conceded more goals on the road than most sides in the division this season. They were winning games 3-2 etc. but they’re not getting the wins currently. They travel to Sarpsborg, very much a home side with four wins from six at home this season, having only lost once. Sarpsborg like to score goals at home too so a home win here at 13/8 could well prove to be fruitful.
Fjolnir Reykjavik vs Fram Reykjavik – away win at 13/8. Fram Reykjavik’s away form this season reads played three, lost three. This has clearly affected the bookies sufficiently enough to give them odds of 13/8 to win this game, which I’m very pleased about. Why? Well, there’s no escaping the fact that the visitors are simply better than today’s hosts and you’d have to expect to see that come the end of the season too. The three games that Fram Reykjavik have lost away from home this season were to reigning champions FH Hafnarfjordur, last year’s runners-up Keflavik and high-flying newcomers Stjarnan Gardabaer who have still won every home game this season. To me, it seems unfair to judge their away form based upon these games. Today they travel to Fjolnir Reykjavik who have seemingly gone straight downhill after their little trip in European football last season. Firmly rooted to the bottom of the table, they’ve managed just one win this season and that was over a very poor UMF Grindavik. They’ve not actually collected any points in their last four games so I am tempted at looking for the away win here, particularly as the visitors have shown they have the capability to win games, at least. Lastly, Fram Reykjavik won this game home and away last season – I’m confident they can do it again.
UMF Grindavik vs Keflavik – away win at 10/11. I’m going to level with you here – I have absolutely no idea why Keflavik are only at 10/11 to win this game against an abysmal UMF Grindavik. All I can think is that the bookies are reading far too much into the fact that last year’s runners-up haven’t won on the road this season.The hosts have won one game from three at home this season and only managed to score two goals in those three games. They’re playing against a Keflavik side that are pretty sound defensively and I think they could well be outdone here by the visitors – 10/11 for this win looks an absolute steal, particularly as Keflavik beat them home and away last season without even conceding a goal…
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
Confederations Cup:
South Africa vs Spain (8) 0-2
USA vs Brazil (7) 0-2
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Torpedo Zhodino vs Dinamo Minsk (7) 2-1
Naftan Novopolotsk vs FC Vitebsk (8)
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Neman Grodno (7) 1-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Fluminense vs Flamengo (7) 1-1
Sport Recife vs Gremio (7) 1-0
Vitoria vs Santo Andre (8) under 2.5 goals
Internacional vs Coritiba (7) 2-1
Palmeiras vs Santos (5) 1-2
Chinese Super League:
Guangzhou Yiyao vs Beijing Guoan (5) 1-1
Dalian Shide vs Changchun Yatai (7) 2-1
Hangzhou Lvcheng vs Shanghai Shenhua (6) 0-0
Jiangsu Shuntian vs Chengdu Blades (7) 1-0
Colombian Futbol Profesional:
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Once Caldas Manizales (7) 2-1 at least one red card in this game
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Tecnico Unviersitario Ambato vs Macara Ambato (5) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
El Nacional Quito vs LDU-Portoviejo (7) 2-1
Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec Guayaquil (7) 1-1
Olmedo Riobamba vs Deportivo Quito (7) 2-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Deportivo Espoli Cayambe (6) 0-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HJK Helsinki vs Inter Turku (7) 2-1
RoPS Rovaniemi vs Honka Espoo (8) 1-3
Haka Valkeakoski vs Jaro Pietarsaari (8) 2-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
Viikingit Helsinki vs Jippo Joensuu (7)
KooTeePee Kotka vs AC Oulu (8) under 2.5 goals
KPV Kokkola vs PK 35 Helsinki (7)
Icelandic Landsbankadeild Karla:
Fjolnir Reykjavik vs Fram Reykjavik (7) 1-2
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs FH Hafnarfjordur (8) 1-3
Throttur Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik (7) 1-2
UMF Grindavik vs Keflavik (8) 0-2
Japanese J-League:
Montedio Yamagata vs Kawasaki Frontale (7) 1-1
Yokohama F Marinos vs Gamba Osaka (7) 2-1
Albirex Niigata vs Nagoya Grampus (7) 1-0
Oita Trinita vs Kashima Antlers (8) 0-2
Latvian Virsliga:
Tranzits Ventspils vs Jurmala (8) 1-2
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Vetra Vilnius (8) 0-1
Ekranas Panevezys vs Suduva Marijampole (7) 1-1
LKKA Teledema Kaunas vs FK Siauliai (6) 0-0
Banga Gargzdai vs Tauras Taurage (8) 2-1
Norwegian Tippeligaen:
Molde vs Lyn Oslo (8) 2-0
Fredrikstad vs Bodo Glimt (8) 2-1
Odd Grenland Skien vs Viking Stavanger (6) 1-1 draw no bet
Tromso vs Aalesunds (7) under 2.5 goals
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord (8) 2-0
Valerenga Oslo vs Rosenborg (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Norwegian Adeccoligaen:
Lov Ham Bergen vs Notodden (7)
Haugesund vs Sogndal (8)
Mjondalen vs Alta (7)
Skeid Oslo vs Nybergsund (8)
Bryne vs Tromsdalen (7)
Honefoss vs Stavanger (8)
Sarpsborg vs Kongsvinger (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Geylang United (8) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!