Valenciennes vs Olympique Lyonnais
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Today’s featured game is the Ligue 1 encounter between Valenciennes and Olympique Lyonnais. Valenciennes are a tough nut to crack, especially at home, but Lyon have enough quality to make it count today.
Valenciennes are currently just above the relegation zone due to a bad run before Christmas and an unimpressive return in 2011. Valenciennes don’t concede many goals but they do have issues in front of goal, hence their league placing. However, Valenciennes’ other big issue is a lack of strength in depth and unfortunately for the hosts, they are missing two important players today with defender Mater absent as well as striker Aboubakar. Main striker Pujol is available but Valenciennes generally need a full team available to win games and cause problems but without two important players for this game, I have my reservations about their chances of winning this one. In addition to that, Valenciennes are going to be demoralised due to a bad start to the second half of this campaign following a defeat at Angers SCO in the Coupe de France, which was duly followed by a 2-1 defeat at impotent Montpellier HSC so things aren’t great for Valenciennes currently.
Lyon don’t have a great record at Valenciennes, however, and it’s no real surprise as Lyon tend to dislike physical games as they’re not a very physical side themselves. Indeed, I’ve been very cautious about backing the Ligue 1 giants this season as their defending has been terrifying at times and they’ve looked disinterested far more often than they should. Since the return of star striker Lisandro Lopez, however, Lyon have looked much, much better. They’ve been scoring goals for fun and winning games a result, which thus leaves their players buoyant, understandably. After quite a poor season by their standards, Lyon find themselves fourth in the Ligue 1 table with just four points separating themselves with league leaders LOSC Lille so I think they’ll be content with that. Lyon’s injury-ravaged squad is almost back to full-strength with only Ederson and Lovren still out so I expect strong displays from Lyon for the remainder of the season, something which was seen during their emphatic demolition of Lorient at the Stade Gerland lately, running out 3-0 winners. Lyon bring great momentum into this game as a result and although their away form is somewhat average this season, I still fancy their chances today.
As I mentioned earlier, Valenciennes can be hard to beat and you won’t often see me oppose them unless I’m convinced that their opponents can do the job. However, Lyon have done enough to convince me of such things since Lopez’s return because he’s frankly far too good for Ligue 1 and he makes Lyon what they are by being a consistent threat in front of goal so I do fancy Lyon here. Valenciennes’ only option is to keep Lyon out but I don’t see how they’ll do that today. With all of the above in mind, the away win at 11/10 intrigues me a lot today.
Team news – Valenciennes miss Mater and Aboubakar whereas Lyon miss Lovren and Ederson.
Verdict: Olympique Lyonnais to win at 11/10.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Australia vs Japan – over 2.5 goals at 17/10.
This is the Asian Cup Final and if they Third Place Play-Off yesterday is anything to go by then I think we’re in for a great game today!
I mentioned pre-tournament that I fancied Australia to win this tournament and I’m going to stick with this call today. Japan have struggled without their two key centre-backs in the Asian Cup, irrespective of whether their results have shown it or not, and Australia are one of the few sides in the tournament good enough to consistently exploit it. Japan were good against South Korea in their game and have demonstrated fluent attacking football throughout the tournament so they’re sure to give Australia a good game here. However, the absence of arguably the most promising Japanese player in recent years – Kagawa – is a real headache for them as he’s excelled in this tournament, much as he has in the Bundesliga this season for BV09 Borussia Dortmund. Nonetheless, the likes of Honda are good enough to create chances and Japan have the players to take those chances too. Australia and Japan have both largely played good attacking football in this tournament and I think we’ll see more of the same today.
For me, the odds on over 2.5 goals are far too long at 17/10 with the above in mind and that’s my recommendation today as a result.
Team newws – Japan miss Kagawa for this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 17/10.
Perth Glory vs Sydney FC – away win at 7/5.
Perth Glory have had a dismal A-League campaign despite looking like potential winners at the start of the season thanks to some impressive moves in the transfer market. However, the fact that only North Queensland Fury are beneath them in the table speaks volumes, in my view, with Perth Glory having averaged conceding nearly two goals per game all season long. The Glory have already lost five times at home this season due to being one of the highest conceding sides in the division and with no wins since December, morale is lessening in Perth. They lost at home to Central Coast Mariners during their last home game and were destroyed 4-0 in New Zealand against Wellington Phoenix during their last match so things aren’t good for the hosts today. Unfortunately, they’re hosting rivals Sydney FC, who would love to rub their noses in it so I don’t envision a happy ending to this game for the hosts.
Sydney FC themselves have had a poor season but they’ve got their season back on track since the turn of the year thanks to the signature of Finnish striker Makela. They’ve won at Newcastle Jets and at home against Gold Coast United before drawing at home to bitter rivals Melbourne Victory and at Central Coast Mariners, which is a good set of results in my view. They’ve taken a lot of momentum from this run and they’re starting to regain their swagger. The absent Brosque and Foxe have been thorns in their side, admittedly, but they should still have enough to edge this one today with their new Finnish signing impressing since his move from HJK Helsinki.
The Glory have contributed to their own downfall heavily this season and I’m hoping that trait will continue today. Sydney FC have enough to win this game, even without Brosque in their team, so they have to be given serious consideration here, especially with Glory missing two essential defenders in Coyne and Harnwell. For me, the away win at 7/5 looks intriguing today.
Team news – Perth Glory miss Edwards, Harnwell, and Coyne whereas Sydney FC miss Reddy, Foxe, Bridge, Brosque, and Antonis.
Verdict: Sydney FC to win at 7/5.
Lorient vs Stade Brestois – home win at 4/5.
I like backing Lorient at home in Ligue 1, which is a bit of a contradiction because I generally don’t like betting in France. However, this side never fails to impress me with their tenacity and fluidity at home so they have to be worth a shot here.
Lorient lost important players in summer but have carried on regardless and looked very good doing so, especially at home. Lorient have actually won six out of ten home games in Ligue 1, losing just twice along the way due to an impressive record of scoring 1.5 goals per home game and conceding just over a goal per every two home games. Lorient aren’t a great side, however, so why are they so dominant at home? The reason is simple – artificial turf. It’s a bastard to play on if you’re not used to it and most Ligue 1 sides don’t have it, hence Lorient having such an advantage at home and playing so poorly away from home. Don’t get me wrong – Lorient are a top eight side but they’re not a special team as their record indicates – that stems from their pitch! Lorient do miss emerging midfielder Coquelin and regular defender Le Lan for this game but they still should have enough to win this one today.
Visitors Brest have been punching above their weight all season long and a lack of depth in their team means that they’ve finally started to crack under the pressure. Brest’s problem is that they simply don’t score enough goals and after a period of time, that generally does hurt sides in just about any league. Brest were laid to waste at home to Caen in their last game, bizarrely losing 1-3 against a side that they can frankly match. They’ve since been knocked out of the Coupe de France by amateur side Chambery on penalties so morale is low and a trip to Lorient is never an easy game so I don’t fancy their chances on the infamous plastic pitch!
The nail in the coffin lid for Brest is that they’re missing leading goalscorer Roux for this game, which means that Brest really shouldn’t be able to score in this game. They’re missing important midfielder Lesoimier too so Brest aren’t at 100% either. For me, with the above taken into consideration, the home win at 4/5 looks a good price to me today.
Team news – Lorient miss Monterrubio, Robert, Coquelin, Le Lan, Jouffre, Lecomte, Doukoure, Le Sourne, Bouderbal, Gegousse, and Buron whereas Stade Brestois miss Coulibaly, Roux, Cotty, Deneuve, Bourgis, N’Tame, and Lesoimier.
Verdict: Lorient to win at 4/5.
VfL Wolfsburg vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund – away win at 5/6.
There’s not a lot that I contribute here that isn’t indicated in the Bundesliga table, really. Wolfsburg have signed Monaco striker Mbokani and Kaiserslautern striker Lakic but their problems remain as McLaren’s side struggle to create chances. They’ve parted with important defender Barzagli in the past few days, who has joined Juventus, so Wolfsburg are undergoing a lot of changes at the moment that they really should have done at the start of the season. Their absentee list is long and they’re playing a side that is frankly better than they are so I don’t fancy their chances in this game. Dortmund have struggled a little without the absent Kagawa but they have a lot of talented players and should really have enough to win this game today, in all honesty. Don’t be fooled by their 1-1 draw with VfB Stuttgart lately – Dortmund played them off the park and missed more open goals than I care to mention! For me, Dortmund should really win this game rather easily against a disjointed and unimpressive Wolfsburg side so my call is the away win at 5/6.
Team news – Wolfsburg miss Lenz, Karimow, Kjaer, Klamt, Schulze, Cigerci, Hasebe, Kreuels, Schindzielorz, Wolze, Grafite, Klos, and Mandzukic whereas Dortmund miss Focher, Hornschuh, Owomoyela, Sobiech, Kagawa, Kehl, Kringe, Ginczek, and Le Tallec.
Verdict: BV09 Borussia Dortmund to win at 5/6.
Albinoleffe vs Ascoli – home win at evens.
This is a fairly risky bet so don’t take it below evens.
However, evens itself is a good price for this selection as the league table doesn’t reflect the ability of Albinoleffe whereas I think it reflects Ascoli rather well. Albinoleffe enter this game fresh from a morale-boosting and impressive win at Livorno so I fancy them here. Albinoleffe have only lost three times in Serie B home games this season but they’ve won five times so they are a capable side. They’re a little unnerving in defence but they’re one of the most tenacious sides in Serie B – must be something in the Bergamo air! – so I like their chances here. They’re missing an important player, sadly – Previtali in midfield – but that shouldn’t be as evident against a fairly poor Ascoli side today. Cisse is a blow too but they have adequate replacements so I’m siding with Albinoleffe here.
Ascoli have only won three out of twelve on the road in Serie B this season, losing six times along the way. They aren’t terrible defensively but I’d still describe them as somewhat vulnerable due to not scoring enough goals away from home. Happily, Ascoli do miss two key defenders today, which aids Albinoleffe a lot as Ciofani and Gazzola are very important for the visitors. With the above in mind and the fact that Ascoli haven’t scored for three consecutive away games, I give the advantage to the frankly superior hosts today.
Team news – Albinoleffe miss Cisse, Previtali, and Girasole whereas Ascoli miss Ciofani, Coser, and Gazzola.
Verdict: Albinoleffe to win at evens.
Numancia vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – home win at 13/10.
This game in Soria sees Numancia flying high and Rayo Vallecano set to match them from a statistics perspective. However, there are a few key factors here to consider that convince me to side with Numancia here.
First of all, Numancia haven’t had a good season but they’re starting to play well again and for me, they’re a top six side. This side lies down for nobody! Secondly, Rayo don’t score many goals away from home. They turn up sporadically but not consistently enough to concern me. And thirdly, Rayo are missing some key players here so this is a prime example of statistics not telling the full story.
Numancia have won seven out of eleven games in Soria this season due to strong displays, especially in front of goal where they’ve averaged scoring nearly two goals per home game. They believe in themselves too, something which I consider rather key. You could see it in their determination to overcome Salamanca last match despite conceding at the end of the game to make it 2-2 – they still won 3-2. They’ve battered sides left, right, and centre since returning from their winter break, bagging eleven goals in four games so they’re flying high and it’ll take a braver man than me to oppose them.
Rayo are decent enough defensively to stop them but are they good enough to match them blow-for-blow? Generally speaking, they probably could on their day but I don’t see how they will today. They rely an awful lot on Argentinian Armanteros for goals and he’s absent today – he’s actually their leading goalscorer! They also miss important defender Amaya and ex-Real Madrid striker Aganzo so their absences here are hefty. I wouldn’t be as concerned if they faced a poor side but they’re facing a good Numancia side that score a lot of goals so I don’t rate Rayo’s chances today.
Therefore, my call is for Numancia to win at 13/10 today!
Team newws – Numancia miss Balde whereas Rayo Vallecano de Madrid miss Aganzo, Amaya, and Armanteros.
Verdict: Numancia to win at 13/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Brisbane Roar, Club Brugge, Lokeren, Burnley, Birmingham City, Chesterfield, LOSC Lille, Panathinaikos, PSV Eindhoven, Hearts, Barcelona.
Recommended bets:
Olympique Lyonnais, PSV Eindhoven, and Club Brugge at 3/1.
Numancia, LOSC Lille, and Hearts at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Cup Final:
Australia vs Japan (5) over 2.5 goals
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Heart (8) under 2.5 goals
Adelaide United vs Central Coast Mariners (5) 1-1
Perth Glory vs Sydney FC (6) 1-2
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Club Brugge vs Germinal Beerschot (8) over 2.5 goals
Standard de Liege vs Westerlo (4) 1-1
Lokeren vs Eupen (8) 2-0
Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge (5) 1-1
Lierse SK vs Charleroi (4) 1-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Audax Italiano vs Palestino (6) over 2.5 goals
Huachipato vs Universidad de Concepcion (6) under 2.5 goals
La Serena vs Universidad de Chile (6) 0-1
Nublense vs Santiago Wanderers (5) 1-1
Cypriot Division 1:
APOP/Kinyras vs AEK Larnaca (7) 1-2
Enosis Neon Paralimni vs Doxa (4) over 2.5 goals
AEL Limassol vs A.E.Paphos (3) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Quito vs Manta (6) under 2.5 goals
Independiente vs Deportivo Cuenca (5) under 2.5 goals
LDU de Loja vs El Nacional Quito (6) 0-0
English FA Cup:
Everton vs Chelsea (5) 1-2
Swansea City vs Leyton Orient (7) 2-0
Aston Villa vs Blackburn Rovers (6) over 2.5 goals
Torquay United vs Crawley Town (5) over 2.5 goals
Watford vs Brighton & Hove Albion (7) over 2.5 goals
Bolton Wanderers vs Wigan Athletic (5) 1-1
Burnley vs Burton Albion (8) 2-0
Birmingham City vs Coventry City (8) 2-0
Stevenage vs Reading (7) 0-1
Sheffield Wednesday vs Hereford United (5) 1-0
Southampton vs Manchester United (7) 0-2
English Championship:
Hull City vs Queens Park Rangers (6) under 2.5 goals
Scunthorpe United vs Preston North End (4) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Crystal Palace vs Norwich City (5) over 2.5 goals
English League One:
Rochdale vs Charlton Athletic (4)
Carlisle United vs Oldham Athletic (6) under 2.5 goals
Swindon Town vs Exeter City (6) both sides to score
Walsall vs Bristol Rovers (5)
Plymouth Argyle vs Bournemouth (5) draw no bet
Brentford vs Yeovil Town (5)
English League Two:
Crewe Alexandra vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Morecambe vs Macclesfield Town (5)
Lincoln City vs Port Vale (4)
Gillingham vs Aldershot Town (6)
Chesterfield vs Bradford City (8)
Rotherham United vs Stockport County (5) over 2.5 goals
Barnet vs Southend United (6)
Oxford United vs Cheltenham Town (5) draw no bet
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Jaro Pietarsaari vs AC Oulu (5) 2-1
French Ligue 1:
Arles vs Paris Saint-Germain (7) 0-2
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Auxerre (6) under 2.5 goals
Lorient vs Stade Brestois (7) 1-0
Saint-Etienne vs Toulouse (4) 2-1
Sochaux vs Stade Rennais (6) 1-1
Valenciennes vs Olympique Lyonnais (6) 1-2
LOSC Lille vs Racing Club Lens (8) 2-0, at least one red card in this game
French Ligue 2:
Angers SCO vs Grenoble Foot (5)
Clermont Foot vs Tours (6) over 2.5 goals
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Nantes (5)
Istres vs Reims (6)
Stade Lavallois vs Vannes OC (5)
Nimes vs Boulogne (6)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Dijon FCO (6)
Troyes vs Metz (4) draw no bet
Le Mans vs AC Ajaccio (5) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga:
Werder Bremen vs Bayern Munich (7) over 2.5 goals
VfL Wolfsburg vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund (7) 0-1
Nurnberg vs Hamburger SV (6) 1-1
Schalke 04 vs Hoffenheim (6) 1-0
St.Pauli vs Koln (5) 2-2
Kaiserslautern vs Mainz 05 (5) 0-0
German Bundesliga 2:
1860 Munich vs MSV Duisburg (5)
Alemannia Aachen vs Greuther Furth (6)
Greek Super League:
Iraklis vs Kerkyra (6) 1-0
Panathinaikos vs Ergotelis (8) 2-0
Xanthi vs AEK Athens (5) 1-1
Italian Serie A:
Lazio vs Fiorentina (6) 1-0
Catania vs AC Milan (5) 1-1
Italian Serie B:
Albinoleffe vs Ascoli (6)
Novara vs Cittadella (4)
Vicenza vs Grosseto (5)
Siena vs Livorno (6) both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Padova vs Modena (6)
Sassuolo vs Portosummaga (5)
Piacenza vs Reggina (5)
Crotone vs Torino (6)
Pescara vs Triestina (6)
Mexican Primera Division:
Queretaro vs Necaxa (6) 1-0
Jaguares vs Santos Laguna (6) 1-1
Tigres UANL vs Toluca (5) 0-0
Pachuca vs Cruz Azul (6) 1-1
Atlas vs America (6) 1-0
Atlante vs Puebla (5) 0-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
Vitesse Arnhem vs Roda JC Kerkrade (5) 2-1
De Graafschap vs FC Utrecht (6) both sides to score
AZ Alkmaar vs VVV Venlo (7) 2-0
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II (10) -2.5 handicap
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Libertad Asuncion vs General Caballero (7) 2-0
Scottish Premier League:
Hamilton Academicals vs Kilmarnock (6) 1-1
Hearts vs St.Johnstone (8) 2-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Mallorca vs Sporting Gijon (6) 1-0
Malaga vs Real Zaragoza (6) over 2.5 goals
Levante vs Getafe (5) 1-0
Real Sociedad vs Almeria (6) over 2.5 goals
Hercules Alicante vs Barcelona (9) -1.5 handicap
Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla CF (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Recreativo de Huelva vs Elche (6) under 2.5 goals
Cartagena vs Deportivo Xerez (4)
Barcelona II vs Celta de Vigo (6)
Numancia vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (6)
Cordoba vs Salamanca (6)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Las Palmas (6) under 2.5 goals
Huesca vs Ponferradina (5)
Villarreal II vs Real Valladolid (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Karabukspor vs Kayserispor (6) 1-1
Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor (6) 1-0
Bucaspor vs Kasimpasa (5) 0-0
Bursaspor vs Galatasaray (6) under 2.5 goals
Welsh Premier League:
Newtown vs Airbus UK (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!