Velez Sarsfield vs Olimpo
FreeToday’s featured game is the Argentinian Primera Division encounter between giants Velez Sarsfield and newly-promoted Olimpo. Velez have made a good start to their domestic campaign and are currently third in the table whereas Olimpo are finding life in the Primera Division difficult, particularly away from home.
Velez Sarsfield are one of the favourites for this year’s Apertura title and on the performances they’ve shown so far this season, it’s easy to see why that is. They’ve stuttered a little of late with three consecutive draws in all competitions but I’d take that with a pinch of salt as all three games were away from home; one of them was at a very in-form San Lorenzo de Almagro, another was at defensively immortal Banfield, and other was at a potent and in-form Arsenal de Sarandi. I’m more impressed that Velez didn’t lose any of those games rather than disappointed that they failed to win any, to be frank! Velez’s strength has always been their home games and this is the perfect game for them to bounce back into form with. They’ve won all three Apertura home games so far and although they’ve only beaten the -1.5 goal handicap in one of those games, they’ve still played well and look the part. With title rivals Banfield having ousted them in the Copa Sudamericana, Velez’s focus now solely remains on the Primera Division so they’ll no doubt be well-motivated for tonight’s game. The likes of Silva in attack, Moralez in midfield, and Zapata on the flank makes this Velez side one of the most dangerous attacking sides in Argentina and with the opportune moment to show that being their game tonight, I don’t think they’ll disappoint.
Olimpo have proven to be something of a force “at home” but have been easy to tear apart on the road. They’ve already lost four out of four on the road and their most recent defeat was a 3-1 loss at in-form San Lorenzo de Almagro so Olimpo don’t really bring any momentum into this game. They offer little in front of goal and next to nothing in defence so it’s no surprise that they’re not doing very well in the Primera Division thus far. It’s no surprise that they’re not doing well; the Primera Division’s strange promotion/relegation format means that the sides which are promoted have to undergo massive renovations in their respective squads to even survive in this league, let alone do well, and Olimpo are no exceptions to that ruling. I can’t fault the enthusiasm of Olimpo but it means nothing without talent usually and thus I expect them to get taught a lesson by a far superior host tonight.
The home win by itself intrigues me as I cannot see anything but a Velez win here. However, despite the Primera Division not being a goal-filled division en mass, 3/2 still looks too generous on a very able and potent Velez side overcoming an inferior opponent that offers little goal threat and cannot defend. Therefore, my call tonight is to take Velez to win with a -1.5 goal handicap.
Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 3/2.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Jaro Pietarsaari vs MyPa Anjalankoski – home win at evens.
After a fairly long absence, I’ve decided to toss my hat into the Veikkausliiga ring again to see if we can squeeze some value from a very bizarre Veikkausliiga season. A lot later than planned, Jaro have finally started showing their potential as they make a late surge towards the European places. Jaro are unbeaten in five consecutive games and have won three of them so they’re certainly playing well at the moment, which is pleasing as Eremenko has earned that with the side he’s put together this season. They’ve scored nine goals in their past four games and with momentum on their side, it’s hard to see them failing to increase their run of good form against a droll MyPa side. MyPa haven’t beaten Jaro in five consecutive attempts, losing four times and only managing to score on one of those five occasions. They’ve lost two trips to Jaro in that time and having already lost over 50% of their away games in the Veikkausliiga this season, I’m not seeing a great deal of reason why MyPa will suddenly start competing properly with Jaro. MyPa are a terrible side to watch because they have little desire to score goals, something well illustrated by the point that VPS Vaasa have scored less on the road than MyPa have. Don’t get me wrong – MyPa aren’t a bad side, per se – they’re actually quite good at frustrating sides on their day. However, against an in-form and potent opponent, MyPa really struggle and with their recent capitulations on the road against KuPS Kuopio and TPS Turku, it’s hard to see their away form changing today.
The odds of Jaro winning this game are currently at evens, which is acceptable. I’d leave it if they drop though – Jaro aren’t a great side and MyPa can be oddly good at preventing sides from beating them so I fail to see the value below evens.
Verdict: Jaro Pietarsaari to win at evens.
Universitatea Cluj vs CFR Cluj – home win with draw no bet at 11/10.
The Cluj derby isn’t a game I tend to go for when betting because it can be an unpredictable game at the best of times. However, there does look to be value on this particular one so I’ll give it a whirl today.
Universitatea are the “working man’s” club and CFR Cluj are the “moneybags club”, just to give you a little background to the game. It’s therefore no surprise that CFR Cluj have a better record in the head-to-head statistics than little Universitatea do. Let’s be honest here – if CFR turn it on then they’ll win this game because there are few (if any) sides that can deal with an in-form CFR side. However, the problem is for CFR is that those times have been few and far between so far this season. Unusually, CFR have looked weak at the back and they’re finding it harder than normal to score goals. CFR have only kept two clean sheets this season but neither of those have been in their last six consecutive Liga games. They lost at home to newly-promoted Targu Mures in their last Liga game and needed extra-time to beat Arad mid-week in the Romanian Cup, which will have tired them for this game. The losses of Deac and Ricardo in midfield appear to have limited their performance as a team and CFR aren’t even scoring as many as normal, especially on the road. Indeed, CFR have played four away games in the Liga this season, losing their last three consecutively, which included a 3-0 defeat at newly-promoted Sportul Studentesc. CFR have looked bereft of confidence and composure, two things you’ll always associate with CFR, so I really have doubts over their ability to take points off little Universitatea in a hotly-contested derby where the game undoubtedly means more to the minnows than the giants.
In four days time, CFR Cluj travel to face AS Roma in Italy. They’ll have good memories of their last trip there as they claimed a heroic win in Rome a couple of years ago and know that they have a good chance to do so again this year with Roma’s current demise. CFR cannot possibly be taking this game as seriously as they should do with the above in mind and Universitatea are going to know that and most probably draw a lot from it. Universitatea have really impressed me since promotion, especially at home. The only side to take anything from a trip to face Universitatea this season is Vaslui so you can see how strong they’ve been on their own turf. Universitatea have won three consecutive home games in all competitions and although their defence is questionable, their enthusiasm and incisive attakcing ways certainly aren’t. Ex-Dinamo Bucharest striker Claudiu Niculescu is doing the damage in attack with five goals in eight appearances and he’ll be integral to the underdogs if they intend on winning this game today. I can’t see Universitatea’s good run of form lasting the entire season – they don’t have the squad to sustain it so they’ll falter at somepoint.
However, I think they’ve got enough in their favour to potentially cause an upset today. As I touched upon briefly earlier – if CFR turn it on then they really should win this game. However, with a draining Cup game just a few days ago and tough trip to Italy looming large in the coming days, CFR are not in the best position to give 100% in this game whereas this is the Cup Final for little Universitatea and they’ll want this an awful lot more than their more illustrious neighbours. CFR have already lost to two newly-promoted sides this season; why not their local rivals? The hosts are playing well enough for me to give them a chance here so my call is the home win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Verdict: Universitatea Cluj to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Velez Sarsfield, St.Polten, SCR Altach, Fehervar, Ujpest, Sporting Braga, Spartak Moscow, MSK Zilina, Bursaspor.
Recommended bets:
Velez Sarsfield and Sporting Braga at evens.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Velez Sarsfield vs Olimpo (9) -1.5 handicap
Independiente vs Gimnasia De La Plata (6) 1-0
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs North Queensland Fury (7) 2-0
Adelaide United vs Perth Glory (5) 1-1
Austrian Liga 1:
St.Polten vs Hartberg (8) over 2.5 goals
Grodig vs First Vienna (7) over 2.5 goals
SCR Altach vs Gratkorn (8)
Lustenau vs Admira Wacker (6)
WAC/St.Andra vs Austria Lustenau (6)
Chilean Primera Division:
San Luis vs Cobresal (6) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovacko vs Slavia Prague (4) 2-1, draw no bet
English Championship:
Portsmouth vs Leicester City (6)
English League One:
Leyton Orient vs Brentford (5)
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Jaro Pietarsaari vs MyPa Anjalankoski (7) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Istres vs Clermont Foot (5)
Stade Lavallois vs AC Ajaccio (5)
Le Havre vs Angers SCO (7) over 2.5 goals
Le Mans vs Dijon FCO (5)
Metz vs Reims (4)
Nantes vs Grenoble Foot (6)
Nimes vs Sedan-Ardennes (6)
Troyes vs Chateauroux (7)
Vannes OC vs Tours (5)
German Bundesliga:
Koln vs Hoffenheim (7) 1-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC Berlin (6)
Karlsruher SC vs FSV Frankfurt (7)
Alemannia Aachen vs Paderborn (6)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Fehervar vs Szombathelyi Haladas (8) over 2.5 goals
Ujpest vs Szolnoki MAV (8) 2-0
Irish Premier League:
Bray Wanderers vs UCD (4) 2-1
Drogheda United vs Sporting Fingal (5) 0-1, draw no bet
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Dundalk (6) 1-0
Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United (7) 2-1
Italian Serie B:
Piacenza vs Siena (6)
Mexican Primera Division:
Necaxa vs Cruz Azul (6) 1-2
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Fortuna Sittard vs Volendam (6) draw no bet
Telstar vs RBC Roosendaal (5)
Almere City vs Emmen (6)
Go Ahead Eagles vs RKC Waalwijk (6) both sides to score
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Korona Kielce vs Slask Wroclaw (7) under 2.5 goals
Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznan (6) 0-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Sporting Braga vs Naval de Maio (8) 2-0
Romanian Liga:
Universitatea Cluj vs CFR Cluj (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Russian Premier League:
Spartak Moscow vs Amkar Perm (8) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Balestier Khalsa vs Woodlands Wellington (5) 1-0
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
MSK Zilina vs DAC Dunajska Streda (8) over 2.5 goals
Nitra vs Spartak Trnava (6) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Deportivo Xerez vs Tenerife (6)
Swedish Superettan:
Angelholm vs GIF Sundsvall (5)
Swiss Challenge League:
SC Kriens vs Chiasso (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Bursaspor vs Bucaspor (8) under 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!